Bears thread 13

[Stratmaster]

I'm just not sure how much difference the kickoffs make. It seems like most times it is kicked to the 5 yard line the return comes out to the 30 anyway. Sure. Occasionally you stick someone between the 20-25. But occasionally a kickoff return comes back past the 35 too. I certainly could be wrong. I would have to look at the stats. I am sure there is a few yard advantage to dropping it between the goal line and the 5. Is it enough to offset the exposure? IDK...

[HearshotKDS]

I'm just not sure how much difference the kickoffs make. It seems like most times it is kicked to the 5 yard line the return comes out to the 30 anyway. Sure. Occasionally you stick someone between the 20-25. But occasionally a kickoff return comes back past the 35 too. I certainly could be wrong. I would have to look at the stats. I am sure there is a few yard advantage to dropping it between the goal line and the 5. Is it enough to offset the exposure? IDK...

Here's a substack I found looking at what I think is your question. The difference between starting at 35 versus the 30 is .3 points per drive, which doesnt sound like a lot but represents a 15% jump in expected points against you which ends up being significant over the course of a game or season.

https://conormclaughlin.net/2024/09/the-nfls-new-kickoff-rule-looks-set-to-boost-offense/

I cant easily find what the Bears starting field position for defense is, google isnt helping and keeps spitting out an irrelevant 5.6 yards per carry number. Im guessing its around 30 because i frankly dont see our kick coverage unit making a lot of stops in the 20s.

[jnrjr79]

I'm just not sure how much difference the kickoffs make. It seems like most times it is kicked to the 5 yard line the return comes out to the 30 anyway. Sure. Occasionally you stick someone between the 20-25. But occasionally a kickoff return comes back past the 35 too. I certainly could be wrong. I would have to look at the stats. I am sure there is a few yard advantage to dropping it between the goal line and the 5. Is it enough to offset the exposure? IDK...

The rule hasn't been around long, so things may evolve, but I guarantee you the analytics departments in these teams are looking in to exactly this question: if you hit the drop zone, do you, on average, end up putting the other team deeper in their own territory than if you just take the touchback, and how risky/damaging is the prospect of the occasional big return? Because we know these days, most teams are just going to do what the math tells them to do in terms of whether to go for the touchback or not.

The funny thing that occurs to me right now is we're talking about Moody having a hard time being able to land the ball in the drop zone, but the flip side of that was in week 1 against the Vikings, part of the Bears' loss was due to Cairo being unable to kick the ball long enough to guarantee a touchback at a crucial late moment in the game when the team's interest was avoiding the clock running past the 2:00 warning on a return.

After the Bears scored a touchdown to go down three with 2:02 to play, Santos was told to boot the ball through the back of the end zone so the Vikings would have to run one offensive play before the two-minute warning. He couldn’t get it there.

Returner Ty Chandler caught the ball, glanced toward his own sideline, saw coach Kevin O’Connell waiving him to come out and ran to the 26-yard line, chewing up seven seconds. The Bears didn’t get the ball back until nine seconds remained.

Johnson believed the Bears would have had 56 seconds to play had the ball gone through the end zone.

“The intent was for the ball to go out of the end zone,” he said.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2025/09/09/bears-vikings-cairo-santos-fourth-quarter-missed-field-goal-short-kickoff-ben-johnson-soldier-field-nfl

[fleet]

All other things being more or less equal, the Santos V Moody question isn’t decided on kickoffs for me. It’s decided on Santos making 4 million $$. But I don’t know his annual cap hit going forward. Whatever it is, it seems too much if Moody became a reasonable alternative.

[Chi town]

https://www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-bears/olin-kreutz-fired-back-at-caleb-williams-critics-with-interesting-point/

Kreutz saying folks didn’t understand Saints game plan. They played nickel the whole game to take away the pass and the big play… daring the Bears to beat them on the ground.

Coach is a winner. He takes what the defense gives them. CW didn’t play well and didn’t pull the trigger enough on quick passes as the windows were much smaller. He also left lots of yards out there by not running when it was there. He will get better. He will get more of this now that it’s on tape too. The dumb penalties didn’t help or the drops. Rome got popped twice as the ball came would be nice to see catch those but the timing and hits were really good. Not many WRs making those catches.

[Jeffster81]

All other things being more or less equal, the Santos V Moody question isn’t decided on kickoffs for me. It’s decided on Santos making 4 million $$. But I don’t know his annual cap hit going forward. Whatever it is, it seems too much if Moody became a reasonable alternative.

I believe, if I am reading it right, Santos cap hit is $3.76m for the next two seasons. The dead cap is something like 1.12m in '26, and 560k in 2027. Cheap enough for the Bears to move on from Santos, imo, if they want to.

(I'm getting the info from spotrac.)

[molepharmer]

Just listened to Hoge and Jahns and Hoge was saying that if Moody is called up to kick again next week, that he'll have to be signed to the 53-man roster (according to the NFL rules??). 'Course if he does get signed that means somebody needs to come off the 53-man. I have no idea if this is an issue, but found the info interesting.

[patryk7754]

All other things being more or less equal, the Santos V Moody question isn’t decided on kickoffs for me. It’s decided on Santos making 4 million $$. But I don’t know his annual cap hit going forward. Whatever it is, it seems too much if Moody became a reasonable alternative.

I don’t really think there’s a discussion to be had about who we go with for kicker. How many kickers are more reliable than santos? Not many. The only issue is his leg strength and even then, he can still kick 50-55 yard FGs.

And with how reliable moody has been for us, he got cut from the 49ers for a reason.

[sco]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/article/where-bears-rank-statistically-heading-192524373.html

1st in sacks allowed
1st in take-aways

Basically sums it up.

[nomorezorro]

if you told me before the season that we'd be first in sacks allowed seven weeks in, i'd believe you, but i wouldn't have realized how you actually meant it

[fleet]

“The haul” is out of the question

Read on Twitter

[dice]

All other things being more or less equal, the Santos V Moody question isn’t decided on kickoffs for me. It’s decided on Santos making 4 million $$. But I don’t know his annual cap hit going forward. Whatever it is, it seems too much if Moody became a reasonable alternative.

I believe, if I am reading it right, Santos cap hit is $3.76m for the next two seasons. The dead cap is something like 1.12m in '26, and 560k in 2027. Cheap enough for the Bears to move on from Santos, imo, if they want to.

if they can get an equal or better kicker off the scrap heap, sure

[dice]

I'm just not sure how much difference the kickoffs make. It seems like most times it is kicked to the 5 yard line the return comes out to the 30 anyway. Sure. Occasionally you stick someone between the 20-25. But occasionally a kickoff return comes back past the 35 too. I certainly could be wrong. I would have to look at the stats. I am sure there is a few yard advantage to dropping it between the goal line and the 5. Is it enough to offset the exposure? IDK...

The rule hasn't been around long, so things may evolve, but I guarantee you the analytics departments in these teams are looking in to exactly this question: if you hit the drop zone, do you, on average, end up putting the other team deeper in their own territory than if you just take the touchback, and how risky/damaging is the prospect of the occasional big return? Because we know these days, most teams are just going to do what the math tells them to do in terms of whether to go for the touchback or not.

The funny thing that occurs to me right now is we're talking about Moody having a hard time being able to land the ball in the drop zone, but the flip side of that was in week 1 against the Vikings, part of the Bears' loss was due to Cairo being unable to kick the ball long enough to guarantee a touchback at a crucial late moment in the game when the team's interest was avoiding the clock running past the 2:00 warning on a return.

After the Bears scored a touchdown to go down three with 2:02 to play, Santos was told to boot the ball through the back of the end zone so the Vikings would have to run one offensive play before the two-minute warning. He couldn’t get it there.

Returner Ty Chandler caught the ball, glanced toward his own sideline, saw coach Kevin O’Connell waiving him to come out and ran to the 26-yard line, chewing up seven seconds. The Bears didn’t get the ball back until nine seconds remained.

Johnson believed the Bears would have had 56 seconds to play had the ball gone through the end zone.

“The intent was for the ball to go out of the end zone,” he said.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2025/09/09/bears-vikings-cairo-santos-fourth-quarter-missed-field-goal-short-kickoff-ben-johnson-soldier-field-nfl

when did it become easy to kick it out the back of the endzone?

anyway, it's rarely desirable

[dice]

I'm just not sure how much difference the kickoffs make. It seems like most times it is kicked to the 5 yard line the return comes out to the 30 anyway. Sure. Occasionally you stick someone between the 20-25. But occasionally a kickoff return comes back past the 35 too. I certainly could be wrong. I would have to look at the stats. I am sure there is a few yard advantage to dropping it between the goal line and the 5. Is it enough to offset the exposure? IDK...

Here's a substack I found looking at what I think is your question. The difference between starting at 35 versus the 30 is .3 points per drive, which doesnt sound like a lot but represents a 15% jump in expected points against you which ends up being significant over the course of a game or season.

https://conormclaughlin.net/2024/09/the-nfls-new-kickoff-rule-looks-set-to-boost-offense/

I cant easily find what the Bears starting field position for defense is, google isnt helping and keeps spitting out an irrelevant 5.6 yards per carry number. Im guessing its around 30 because i frankly dont see our kick coverage unit making a lot of stops in the 20s.

opponents averaging 26.2 per return. not sure anyone is publicly tracking avg. starting TOUCH point on returns

as for the general discussion, i've heard KO returns described as the rough equivalent of running plays. you don't expect a lot of huge returns. probably less variability in return averages than before in the long term. last year the gap between yards per rush between the best and worst of the top 32 in attempts was 2.3 yards. back in the golden age of the KO return there was probably a difference of only a few yards of starting position given up on returned kicks between the best and worst special teams units

[dice]

PFF grades through 1/3 of season:

75.3 swift
73.4 dalman (64pass/78rush)
73.2 thuney (83/65)
73.0 odunze
70.0 darnell (67/75)
66.9 DJ
63.6 zaccheaus
61.2 kmet
58.1 jax (59/59)
45.2 theo (47/55)

76.2 tyrique
75.0 sweat
69.5 brisker
69.0 edmunds
68.3 byard
67.7 dexter
55.7 nahshon
55.4 dayo
54.7 sewell
50.4 mccloud

[biggestbullsfan]

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[dougthonus]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/article/where-bears-rank-statistically-heading-192524373.html

1st in sacks allowed
1st in take-aways

Basically sums it up.

FWIW, there are 7 teams that have allowed fewer sacks, so not sure where this data comes from. 4 of those teams have allowed fewer sacks despite playing an additional game.

That said, the Bears are doing well here relative to the past, and the offensive line has been solid.

[biggestbullsfan]

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[Stratmaster]

I'm just not sure how much difference the kickoffs make. It seems like most times it is kicked to the 5 yard line the return comes out to the 30 anyway. Sure. Occasionally you stick someone between the 20-25. But occasionally a kickoff return comes back past the 35 too. I certainly could be wrong. I would have to look at the stats. I am sure there is a few yard advantage to dropping it between the goal line and the 5. Is it enough to offset the exposure? IDK...

Here's a substack I found looking at what I think is your question. The difference between starting at 35 versus the 30 is .3 points per drive, which doesnt sound like a lot but represents a 15% jump in expected points against you which ends up being significant over the course of a game or season.

https://conormclaughlin.net/2024/09/the-nfls-new-kickoff-rule-looks-set-to-boost-offense/

I cant easily find what the Bears starting field position for defense is, google isnt helping and keeps spitting out an irrelevant 5.6 yards per carry number. Im guessing its around 30 because i frankly dont see our kick coverage unit making a lot of stops in the 20s.

Interestingly, it shows a starting position between the goal line and 10 yard line result in more points per possession than a starting point between the 10 and 30 yard line; and a starting point of the 35 results in more PPP than starting from the 40. But the PPP is not based only on kickoffs, it is based on all drives. Based on all of that, I am not sure what to make of the information. It seems like there is too much randomness to put a lot of faith in it.

[Dresden]

PFF grades through 1/3 of season:

75.3 swift
73.4 dalman (64pass/78rush)
73.2 thuney (83/65)
73.0 odunze
70.0 darnell (67/75)
66.9 DJ
63.6 zaccheaus
61.2 kmet
58.1 jax (59/59)
45.2 theo (47/55)

76.2 tyrique
75.0 sweat
69.5 brisker
69.0 edmunds
68.3 byard
67.7 dexter
55.7 nahshon
55.4 dayo
54.7 sewell
50.4 mccloud

Who would have guessed that Tyrique would be our highest rated defender after 7 games? Sweat also looks like he's back to being the Sweat we thought we were trading for (if PFF is to be believed).