Eyes and regular stats > advanced stats (coming from a stat nerd), IMHO

[Rubios]

This thread comes in the context of the “Shai or Giannis” topic.
The poll heavily favors Giannis, but I’m still surprised by the number of votes Shai is getting.
And let me clarify: I really like Shai’s style of play, a lot (except for the excessive foul-hunting, though I do recognize that it’s a skill), and I give him huge credit considering his height and size.

But there are things Giannis can do that Shai simply can’t. It’s that simple. I don’t think Giannis is necessarily a “better” player (that would involve skills, “bag,” IQ, talent…), but his frame and athleticism allow him for a much greater impact. That’s why I consider Giannis a much superior player, even if not necessarily better per se. Giannis’ technical skills are heavily underrated, but that’s another topic.

I’ll give healthy Giannis’ numbers in two playoff losses, just to be fair:
34 points, almost 15 rebounds, and 7 assists in 2022 against the Celtics, without Middleton.
33 points, 15.4 rebounds, and 6.6 assists with a 65.1% TS in this year’s first round against Indiana.

Shai can be a perfect piece on a team that already rebounds well, has offensive alternatives, and plays strong defense. Because even though Giannis’ defense has declined, he’s still a much better defender. People criticize his drop-off because he’s a former DPOY and a five-time All-Defensive.

But Giannis, surrounded by broomsticks, still gives you more points, triple the rebounds, and draws so much defensive attention that he actually assists slightly more than Shai (a PG).

When the gap is that wide, advanced metrics like +/–, RAPTOR, LEBRON, WS, and others that are great for splitting hairs just become noise in the conversation, IMHO.

[EmpireFalls]

Nah, advanced stats are consistently better predictors than just PRA. Obviously the eye test is king IF you know what you’re talking about and IF you watch enough games. The issue is that stupid and uniformed people each have their own eye tests too.

LEBRON EPM and RAPM are much better descriptors of who the best players are than any other stat I can think of.

[Bergmaniac]

But there are things Giannis can do that Shai simply can’t.

And there are things Shai can do that Giannis can't. Plus this is a terrible way to judge impact anyway. To give an extreme example, there were a lot of things an average NBA guard can do that Shaq couldn't yet Shaq was obviously way more impactful.

[sashaturiaf]

Advanced stats are the be all and end all as long as it supports my argument over why my NBA man crush is better than yours. If not, then it's all eye test all day.

Tale as old as time

[Rubios]

But there are things Giannis can do that Shai simply can’t.

And there are things Shai can do that Giannis can't. Plus this is a terrible way to judge impact anyway. To give an extreme example, there were a lot of things an average NBA guard can do that Shaq couldn't yet Shaq was obviously way more impactful.

You’re right because I expressed myself terribly.

Of course, Shai has handles, a mid-range jumper… things Giannis doesn’t have.
But if we agree that SGA isn’t a pure playmaker, at the end of the day Giannis has other ways to score, grabs three times as many rebounds, generates gravity that allows him to get more assists despite having worse teammates, and thanks to his length and athleticism he’s a rim protector who can also contest or disrupt 3s.

If you teleported the current Shai to the 2022 Bucks against the Celtics, without Middleton, do you think he’d take them to a Game 7 while averaging 34/15/7?
If he played on last year’s even weaker Bucks team, could he have avoided a sweep against Indiana (they lost 4-1) while averaging 33 points, 15.4 rebounds and 6.6 assists on 65.1% TS?
And closing the series with a 30/20/13?

Shai, simply by being under two meters tall and weighing less than 90 kg, will never be able to do that.
And that’s not a knock on the third or fourth best player in the league (fourth, IMHO).

[dremill24]

But there are things Giannis can do that Shai simply can’t. It’s that simple. I don’t think Giannis is necessarily a “better” player (that would involve skills, “bag,” IQ, talent…), but his frame and athleticism allow him for a much greater impact. That’s why I consider Giannis a much superior player, even if not necessarily better per se. Giannis’ technical skills are heavily underrated, but that’s another topic.

You're not the first to talk about these distinctions but I've just been having a real hard time with them lately lol.

Does there really need to be a functional difference between "better" and "more impactful" (and apparently between "superior" and "better")?

Especially in cases where the argument is as close as in this example, i see no reason why "more impactful" would not be the same as "better." We want to win right? Feels like making up hairs just to split

[Roger Murdock]

Ultimately I think that advanced stats are hard to compare between players when the talent level is so different

The 3rd - 10th best players on the Bucks haven’t been very good in 3-4 years.

The Thunder have like 12 legit rotation players and the 2nd/3rd guys are legit all NBA talents. The 10th best player on the Thunder is better than the 5th best guy on the Bucks

When you have less responsibility and can burden the load across more players, it allows more effort on defense, less effort to be excellent on a day to day basis. When you have 12 guys who can go 100% on defense any night because anyone on the team can step up, everyone’s advanced stats will look better because the opponents can’t keep up.

Giannis has to battle every possession for the Bucks. Nothing comes easy for him.

[YogurtProducer]

But there are things Giannis can do that Shai simply can’t.

And there are things Shai can do that Giannis can't. Plus this is a terrible way to judge impact anyway. To give an extreme example, there were a lot of things an average NBA guard can do that Shaq couldn't yet Shaq was obviously way more impactful.

You’re right because I expressed myself terribly.

Of course, Shai has handles, a mid-range jumper… things Giannis doesn’t have.
But if we agree that SGA isn’t a pure playmaker, at the end of the day Giannis has other ways to score, grabs three times as many rebounds, generates gravity that allows him to get more assists despite having worse teammates, and thanks to his length and athleticism he’s a rim protector who can also contest or disrupt 3s.

If you teleported the current Shai to the 2022 Bucks against the Celtics, without Middleton, do you think he’d take them to a Game 7 while averaging 34/15/7?
If he played on last year’s even weaker Bucks team, could he have avoided a sweep against Indiana (they lost 4-1) while averaging 33 points, 15.4 rebounds and 6.6 assists on 65.1% TS?
And closing the series with a 30/20/13?

Shai, simply by being under two meters tall and weighing less than 90 kg, will never be able to do that.
And that’s not a knock on the third or fourth best player in the league (fourth, IMHO).

Not a great way of looking at things because both OKC and MIL are constructed AROUND sga and giannis. You can't just swap a guard for a big and say "well they wouldn't win".

A 2025 OKC SGA for 2022 MIL Giannis trade hurts both teams. OKC is left without a PG, and MIL is left with no rebounding.

[Rubios]

Ultimately I think that advanced stats are hard to compare between players when the talent level is so different

The 3rd - 10th best players on the Bucks haven’t been very good in 3-4 years.

The Thunder have like 12 legit rotation players and the 2nd/3rd guys are legit all NBA talents. The 10th best player on the Thunder is better than the 5th best guy on the Bucks

When you have less responsibility and can burden the load across more players, it allows more effort on defense, less effort to be excellent on a day to day basis. When you have 12 guys who can go 100% on defense any night because anyone on the team can step up, everyone’s advanced stats will look better because the opponents can’t keep up.

Giannis has to battle every possession for the Bucks. Nothing comes easy for him.

I agree 100%
From my OP "When the gap is that wide, advanced metrics like +/–, RAPTOR, LEBRON, WS, and others that are great for splitting hairs just become noise in the conversation, IMHO."

[Rubios]

Not a great way of looking at things because both OKC and MIL are constructed AROUND sga and giannis. You can't just swap a guard for a big and say "well they wouldn't win".

A 2025 OKC SGA for 2022 MIL Giannis trade hurts both teams. OKC is left without a PG, and MIL is left with no rebounding.

You are right. But, also, you got my point.

[YogurtProducer]

Not a great way of looking at things because both OKC and MIL are constructed AROUND sga and giannis. You can't just swap a guard for a big and say "well they wouldn't win".

A 2025 OKC SGA for 2022 MIL Giannis trade hurts both teams. OKC is left without a PG, and MIL is left with no rebounding.

You are right. But, also, you got my point.

Not really, because it works both ways. In no way does what you said prove a damn thing.

[Old_Blue]

Statistics are the lazy slob's crutch. I've lost count of how many times I've read someone write "I didn't watch the game, but according to the stats..." Alternatively, I've heard people claim that - even if they do watch the game - "there's too much going on to tell one player's contribution." To which I've got to ask this - What kind of intellectual damage have we done to an entire generation with early and intense exposure to the internet, social media and now AI that they can't focus on one effing player out of ten on the court? "Make all the players go away! It's too much. I can't handle it. Where is my Ritalin and my stat sheet?"

[Lockdown504090]

Nah, advanced stats are consistently better predictors than just PRA. Obviously the eye test is king IF you know what you’re talking about and IF you watch enough games. The issue is that stupid and uniformed people each have their own eye tests too.

LEBRON EPM and RAPM are much better descriptors of who the best players are than any other stat I can think of.

See I like these 3 stats, but it so important to have a good understanding of SCHEME. Basketball is the most different game from regular to postseason. if you look at say, Shai, yeah he won the title, but he isnt good at making passes and reads to his left and both denver and indiana had success bringing pressure from there and Shai+thunder had to adjust. not everyone can do that, and this is where we separate the top of the league from the tier below. embiid has struggled with smaller defenders playing soft zones who refuse to foul him for years. harden has struggled with his game being formulaic. his solution is just hitting increasingly difficult shots, hence the poor performances. What i like about edwards is that he has a litany of things to exploit, is aware, and is humble enough to try to develop counters.

[Special_Puppy]

When there's a big divergence between the advanced stats and the eye test+traditional stats, its worth asking whether you are missing something. And in this case I think you are. Shai scored at a higher rate than Giannis, on higher efficiency, and on a tougher shot diet. I think Giannis might be a better rebounder than Shai in a vacuum, Giannis needing to be paired with a stretch center (who hurt their team's offensive rebounding) to maximize his impact means that his overall rebounding impact is not significantly better than Shai's. Shai is also the king at perhaps the most underappreciated skill in the NBA: turnover suppression. His incredibly low turnover rate on such a high offensive load greatly reduces his teams overall turnovers and is the main reason why OKC had the lowest turnover % in the NBA last year.

[ryan in Maine]

But what if the stats contradict my eyes? My eyes tell me Tatum loves dribbling the air out of the ball, but other Celtics fans are all like nuh uh [stat!!! @ryan] and idk what to believe anymore. Their formulas or my lyin' eyes!? Does Tatum walk up to the three point line and dance with the ball, like, a lot, or does it just feel like it?!

[tsherkin]

Statistics are the lazy slob's crutch. I've lost count of how many times I've read someone write "I didn't watch the game, but according to the stats..." Alternatively, I've heard people claim that - even if they do watch the game - "there's too much going on to tell one player's contribution." To which I've got to ask this - What kind of intellectual damage have we done to an entire generation with early and intense exposure to the internet, social media and now AI that they can't focus on one effing player out of ten on the court? "Make all the players go away! It's too much. I can't handle it. Where is my Ritalin and my stat sheet?"

So this is a terrible post.

Like a truly dreadful post.

It's denigrating towards statistics without actual substance, and ridiculous enough that it actually harms any conversation about the value inherent to video scouting (and it exists, no doubt). Anyone who has even passing attention paid to intellectual honesty and integrity of discussion understands the utility of context and watching games added to statistics, so the idea that people are suddenly smart enough that they can do what decades of others have proven incapable of doing (properly identifying individual player impact from eye test alone) is inane at best and actively disingenuous at worst.

Turning to pejoratives and talking about Ritalin and stat sheets is just you abdicating authentic participation in discussion, and helps no one.

Eye and regular stats are not enough. They are a good starting point. They are an important component of total assessment and should not be ignored. But the advanced stuff often reveals things which would otherwise be missed, and they help us also move beyond nostalgia and the weaknesses inherent to pure box score numbers.

Now, with Giannis and Shai, it's an interesting discussion. The scoring volume and efficiency are similar... although Shai was around +3 ppg compared to Giannis in 2025. And more efficient, albeit only so much. And he is of course far more reliable outside of the paint. Shai drives a lot more, and so his play can be more dynamic than Giannis... but it isn't like Giannis doesn't face up a lot, and a bunch of those possessions get called other things for whatever reason. And of course Giannis is a beast finishing inside, which is matched off by Shai being dramatically superior at the line and from 3, and being much more dangerous at the elbow, etc. Then you start considering defense, where Giannis isn't what he used to be but is still a high-end value guy, and you have yourself an interesting conversation. You consider the postseason, and it gets interesting, especially if you're looking at career value instead of only at the 2025 season, certainly. Giannis has often been a lot less efficient in the PS than the RS (not so in 2025, however), though there have been some injuries and what-not to consider there. And Shai didn't light it up efficiency-wise this postseason either.

But all of that is for the other thread.

It's very clear that the premise of the OP is wrong, but it sets up a false dichotomy. Neither of these things is MORE valuable. Both of them are very relevant, and you just have extremists on either side who largely need to shut up and accept the utility which both bring to the table.

[Rubios]

Ok: context matters, too. A lot.
Bucks and Thunders are built around Giannis and Shai, right.
For a series of reasons, OKC is a hell of a team and the Bucks are awful-ish.

If you surround SGA with broomsticks (even if these broomsticks are there to complement him), what floor and ceiling you could aim for?
In my OP, there's what Giannis brought to the table vs the Celtics going to 7 without Middleton.
And vs Indiana without Lillard.
When it matters most, in the Playoffs.

Now, if you want to bring durability into the conversation (2023-2024 Playoffs), I'd have to bite the bullet.
Giannis is not an injury prone player, IMHO, but **** happens. And, sometimes, at the worst moment.

[NyKnicks1714]

None of the above are worthless but if you can't back up your "eye test" with statistics, it's wrong.

[parapooper]

This thread comes in the context of the “Shai or Giannis” topic.
The poll heavily favors Giannis, but I’m still surprised by the number of votes Shai is getting.
And let me clarify: I really like Shai’s style of play, a lot (except for the excessive foul-hunting, though I do recognize that it’s a skill), and I give him huge credit considering his height and size.

But there are things Giannis can do that Shai simply can’t. It’s that simple. I don’t think Giannis is necessarily a “better” player (that would involve skills, “bag,” IQ, talent…), but his frame and athleticism allow him for a much greater impact. That’s why I consider Giannis a much superior player, even if not necessarily better per se. Giannis’ technical skills are heavily underrated, but that’s another topic.

I’ll give healthy Giannis’ numbers in two playoff losses, just to be fair:
34 points, almost 15 rebounds, and 7 assists in 2022 against the Celtics, without Middleton.
33 points, 15.4 rebounds, and 6.6 assists with a 65.1% TS in this year’s first round against Indiana.

Shai can be a perfect piece on a team that already rebounds well, has offensive alternatives, and plays strong defense. Because even though Giannis’ defense has declined, he’s still a much better defender. People criticize his drop-off because he’s a former DPOY and a five-time All-Defensive.

But Giannis, surrounded by broomsticks, still gives you more points, triple the rebounds, and draws so much defensive attention that he actually assists slightly more than Shai (a PG).

When the gap is that wide, advanced metrics like +/–, RAPTOR, LEBRON, WS, and others that are great for splitting hairs just become noise in the conversation, IMHO.

In PER and BPM (the only advanced stats that make any sense to use in a 5-game playoff sample) Giannis led the NBA last playoffs - so this thread title + OP make less than zero sense

[Ryoga Hibiki]

Nah, advanced stats are consistently better predictors than just PRA. Obviously the eye test is king IF you know what you’re talking about and IF you watch enough games. The issue is that stupid and uniformed people each have their own eye tests too.

LEBRON EPM and RAPM are much better descriptors of who the best players are than any other stat I can think of.

we must clarify what "eye test" actually means, though.
just passively watch a game? not really.
film study focusing on specific actions? yes, sure
but that's not what 99% of the people are doing.