Not putting THAT much stock into Wemby's defense: what am I missing? (Plz read)

[Rubios]

I’ve got two working eyes, so I know we’ve never seen anything like this guy. He still amazes me, and I love watching him play big time.
I’m writing this right after the Mavs game, so I must be even dumber.

I think part of it is just offensive paralysis: guys have literally never been defended by someone who can do what he does. Let me try to explain:

Wemby’s footwork, agility, coordination, and balance are insane for his length. But I want to stress "for his wingspan". He can’t completely bend the laws of physics (or at least, not that much).
He’s never going to have the footwork of Hakeem, Duncan, Marc Gasol, or Garnett.
Or, to compare him to the previous physical freak, Giannis. Though Giannis’s footwork isn’t exquisite.

His center of gravity is super high: everything he does is on a less stable base.

3s: Wemby can block an open three, sometimes without even jumping. But I feel like faking him out off the dribble is relatively doable (you know what I mean) for an NBA wing.
Maybe just "denying" the catch&shoot and make you pull up after a dribble cuts the % significantly. I honestly don’t know.

In the paint, it doesn’t matter that he doesn’t have (and maybe never will have) the kg or strength of the "bigger bigs". You can bully him all the way to the rim, and he’ll still block your shot.
But again, once you get over the initial "what the hell is this dude?", he’s not an impenetrable wall if you can get him to bite on a fake.
Basically, I think guys who can throw defenders off balance (Luka, Jokic) or have a really good pump fake will have some success.

TL;DR
Whatever my opinion, the point is this: teams only need a special game plan to defend a handful of players.
And a special game plan to attack only a few defenses.
I’m implying you actually have to change your whole offensive approach because of a single defender.
Which, honestly, says everything about how huge this guy already is.

[badpotato]

He changes how opposing team plays offense on his own - They should make a stat out of poeple giving up on the drive and dribbling past the basket just because Victor is near.

[Stone]

I can't see Wemby being like a Jeremy Lin situation, where he had crazy stats and after teams scouted him, he was average at best.

Then again I don't see Wemby being a run away train like Wilt.

Guess I'll just enjoy while I can.

[ropjhk]

Even if you do successfully pump fake Wemby he can still recover and block your shot with his length. A wing can blow by him and still get blocked. The scary thing is that Wemby makes it look easy.

[SNPA]

I remain unconcerned.

[Thaddy]

He doesn't even need a second jump ability. It's crazy.

Prospects like Asa Newell have that an a core skill but it literally doesn't matter for Wemby.

I think he'll eventually be scouted and his weaknesses will be exploited. I also think injuries will eventually hinder him because he's massive.

But teams should be investing in 7 foot youngsters like Chomche, Zikarsky and other projects. If I'm a team in the play in or lotto I'm looking for a young prospect who will be ready in 4 years. There will be an eventual playoff match up against Wemby and you have to be ready years in advance.

[Shaka_Zulu]

Thing is the savier and stronger he becomes, the less effective a pump fake becomes. Already seen it happen since his first rookie season.

Initially he used to twitch jump tiny bit like he is anyone else on pump fakes, but since then he realized wait I'm 7'5 or 7'6, I dont need to jump. So even if the pump fake tricks him, he isnt in the air with slight jump anyone that gives shooter time to get by or bump into defender to draw foul.


And even if it fully fools him and they get by, as we seen time and time again, he can recover and reach you from any distance more or less.


So I have very hard time seeing how pump fakes will fool him consistently enough to become an issue.

I will eagerly await his next game vs Jokic now that he seems stronger. Because for obvious reason, last season Jokic, and pre injury Embiid, was only guys who was scoring at will against Wemby.

It will be intriguing because Jokic is both strong as hell and best user of pump fakes or fake outs (Embiid cant jump anyone so he wont be an issue).

Here's a funny video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/OTFrQkpOSiE?si=swVtqiAREV_Ahg_F



So essentially it takes someone nearly as tall as him to effectively abuse the pump fakes on him.

[G R E Y]

Read on Twitter

15 boards.

3 blocks.

p.s.

Read on Twitter

[jezzerinho]

In regular season, maybe only divisional rivals will invest the time scheming in detail to try and exploit weaknesses in someone so long-levered.

The rest of.the league will rock up with only a day's preparation and find themselves trying to play around this human wind turbine.

In.the playoffs, he'll get studied minutely and.teams are bound to find some small chinks in the armour.

[Marvin Martian]

This is kind of irrelevant. Wemby doesn't have to guard Luka or Jokic directly. The simple adjustment would be to have another defender (Sochan?) guard them and have Wemby roam around the paint, where he is more dangerous defensively

[Biff]

The guy needs to cover significantly less ground than other players to alter/block shots. Even if he doesn't block the shot, he's such an enormous presence that he will psych guys out. Doesn't matter that he isn't as agile as Giannis, he doesn't have to be. Giannis is nowhere near the rim presence Wemby is. Wemby can get faked out and still recover enough to alter shots. I don't even watch the Spurs all that often and I've still seen that numerous times.

[prime1time]

I’ve got two working eyes, so I know we’ve never seen anything like this guy. He still amazes me, and I love watching him play big time.
I’m writing this right after the Mavs game, so I must be even dumber.

I think part of it is just offensive paralysis: guys have literally never been defended by someone who can do what he does. Let me try to explain:

Wemby’s footwork, agility, coordination, and balance are insane for his length. But I want to stress "for his wingspan". He can’t completely bend the laws of physics (or at least, not that much).
He’s never going to have the footwork of Hakeem, Duncan, Marc Gasol, or Garnett.
Or, to compare him to the previous physical freak, Giannis. Though Giannis’s footwork isn’t exquisite.

His center of gravity is super high: everything he does is on a less stable base.

3s: Wemby can block an open three, sometimes without even jumping. But I feel like faking him out off the dribble is relatively doable (you know what I mean) for an NBA wing.
Maybe just "denying" the catch&shoot and make you pull up after a dribble cuts the % significantly. I honestly don’t know.

In the paint, it doesn’t matter that he doesn’t have (and maybe never will have) the kg or strength of the "bigger bigs". You can bully him all the way to the rim, and he’ll still block your shot.
But again, once you get over the initial "what the hell is this dude?", he’s not an impenetrable wall if you can get him to bite on a fake.
Basically, I think guys who can throw defenders off balance (Luka, Jokic) or have a really good pump fake will have some success.

TL;DR
Whatever my opinion, the point is this: teams only need a special game plan to defend a handful of players.
And a special game plan to attack only a few defenses.
I’m implying you actually have to change your whole offensive approach because of a single defender.
Which, honestly, says everything about how huge this guy already is.

I really don't even grasp what you're trying to say. NBA isn't a complicated league. 3's and layups. Wemby completely alters what's happening around the rim. Is he going to stop every shot? No. Will some players be able to score on him? Yes. But that doesn't alter his impact lol.

Mavs had an offensive rating of 91.4 against the Spurs. That would have been lower than every game they played last season.

[prime1time]

In regular season, maybe only divisional rivals will invest the time scheming in detail to try and exploit weaknesses in someone so long-levered.

The rest of.the league will rock up with only a day's preparation and find themselves trying to play around this human wind turbine.

In.the playoffs, he'll get studied minutely and.teams are bound to find some small chinks in the armour.

Yeah, people can score on him. That's not the point. And yeah, there will be "chinks in the armour." The point is that the Spurs will - with the right pieces around him - be better defensively than everyone else in the league. You can pick any player to anchor a defense for this season.Which player are you choosing?

[VanWest82]

He's kind of the antithesis of Steph Curry in that his defense neutralizes much of the effectiveness of offensive gravity...a figurative black hole.

[NO-KG-AI]

Even if you do successfully pump fake Wemby he can still recover and block your shot with his length. A wing can blow by him and still get blocked. The scary thing is that Wemby makes it look easy.

Yea, he can get to your shot from behind, even wayyy behind. His ability to block shots trailing behind the ballhandler is the best we’ve seen.

[Billl]

So, he's not invincible? Sure. No players are, especially young guys. He just covers so much ground with an insane amount of length that he's always going to be one of the most impactful defenders. It's not like teams are ever going to figure out a way to make his less long and tall. As long as he's healthy, he's going to be a problem.

[ConSarnit]

Honestly there is nothing you can do to scheme around his defense. His rim protection is elite to a level I’ve never seen. You can see opposing players afraid to enter the paint when he’s on the floor. The Spurs will lead the league in forcing opposing guards/wings to dribble out of the paint. They’ll probably also lead the league in forcing mid range shots.

It feels like Wemby is also elite on switches as well. He can contest without jumping and any guard/wing who gets by him has to fear getting blocked from behind.

There will be ways to slow Wemby down on offense. I can’t see a way to scheme around him on defense. Maybe if you have Steph bombing 15 3pa it will work but other than that good luck.

[Rubios]

He's kind of the antithesis of Steph Curry in that his defense neutralizes much of the effectiveness of offensive gravity...a figurative black hole.

Very, very good analogy.

[Rubios]

(OP)
I think I’ve found a way to explain myself.
I only played basketball for a year, in high school, but I’ve been training striking (boxing/Muay) for half my life.

In absolute terms, reach is just as important in these sports as it is in basketball.
Keep in mind that “modern” boxing has been around for at least twice as long as basketball, and martial arts were there forever.
That’s why today that statement might sound stupid. But when boxing was much younger, a fighter with much greater height and reach than others in his weight class would dominate with an iron fist (wink, wink) as long as he wasn’t too bow-legged.

But the “sweet science” found ways to attack and defend against an opponent who can reach you from a distance where you can’t reach him. The Wemby situation.
What’s the equivalent in basketball? Hell if I know. But that wingspan comes at a cost.

Still, a great talent with great reach will always be a world-beater in striking sports, too.
Semmy (2.12 m / 224 cm reach) is one of the three best HW KB in history.
Tommy Hearns dominated the welterweight division standing 1.85 m tall with nearly a 2m reach while weighing under 147 lbs. Or Fundora, 1.97 m tall at 154 lbs.
Lennox Lewis is one of the best heavyweights ever, with a 215 cm reach. Tyson Fury was too.

But they were not, or are not, the absolute very best. And they proved to be beatable.
I'm talking 1vs1 plays, basketball is a team sport so the analogy is only valid in these situations.

And I'm not talking about "beating" Wemby in a given play, but a player getting the upper hand H2H vs Victor guarding him in a Playoff series, i.e., as it happens during the many exchanges taking place in the 12 rounds of a boxing bout.

[Doctor MJ]

I’ve got two working eyes, so I know we’ve never seen anything like this guy. He still amazes me, and I love watching him play big time.
I’m writing this right after the Mavs game, so I must be even dumber.

I think part of it is just offensive paralysis: guys have literally never been defended by someone who can do what he does. Let me try to explain:

Wemby’s footwork, agility, coordination, and balance are insane for his length. But I want to stress "for his wingspan". He can’t completely bend the laws of physics (or at least, not that much).
He’s never going to have the footwork of Hakeem, Duncan, Marc Gasol, or Garnett.
Or, to compare him to the previous physical freak, Giannis. Though Giannis’s footwork isn’t exquisite.

His center of gravity is super high: everything he does is on a less stable base.

3s: Wemby can block an open three, sometimes without even jumping. But I feel like faking him out off the dribble is relatively doable (you know what I mean) for an NBA wing.
Maybe just "denying" the catch&shoot and make you pull up after a dribble cuts the % significantly. I honestly don’t know.

In the paint, it doesn’t matter that he doesn’t have (and maybe never will have) the kg or strength of the "bigger bigs". You can bully him all the way to the rim, and he’ll still block your shot.
But again, once you get over the initial "what the hell is this dude?", he’s not an impenetrable wall if you can get him to bite on a fake.
Basically, I think guys who can throw defenders off balance (Luka, Jokic) or have a really good pump fake will have some success.

TL;DR
Whatever my opinion, the point is this: teams only need a special game plan to defend a handful of players.
And a special game plan to attack only a few defenses.
I’m implying you actually have to change your whole offensive approach because of a single defender.
Which, honestly, says everything about how huge this guy already is.

So to be honest I found it hard to know understand your perspective as written - not a criticism, just is what it is - and so I'm chiming in after reading your follow up post just trying to do the best I can:

It feels to me like you're saying that there will always be ways to mitigate for Wemby's defensive presence, and thus make him less impactful than he would otherwise be. This is absolutely true...but it's also a general truism about basketball players.

I think the key thing is to recognize that such mitigation is not a thing that takes a guy's impact from something to nothing, but from something to something-sightly-less.

So then the questions are just about what methods will mitigate for Wemby best, and how he'll end up stacking up as a result of that, and none of us truly know the answer yet.

But a key thing I will emphasize in contrast to individual sports like the combat you're more experienced with:

The most valuable defenders are typically so valuable because of their "help" defense rather than because of their impact on their man, which might cause confusion for someone with expertise analyzing individual sports.

This isn't a universal thing to be clear, but with modern elite basketball, it is the norm.

Also, I use the term "help defense" here as if all non-man defense is help defense, but I wouldn't consider this true. A ballhawk known for playing the passing lanes isn't doing what I'd call help defense, but he's also not doing man defense. I use help defense as a catch-all here because in practice for modern elite basketball, ballhawks aren't the most impactful defenders even though they theoretically could be.

Last note:

I'm not a combat sports guy because I have mixed feelings about bloodsports for the effects they have on their participants, but I respect like crazy the speed of thought that a great fighter has to have, and part of what I like about basketball is that those with great speed of thought have a massive advantage too. It's not utterly essential in basketball the way it is in fighting - players with great physical talents can still be great with slower (more normal) brains - but the players with super-fast brains are oftentimes my favorites.

So in the current NBA, the king of super-fast defensive thought is Draymond. I don't always love how he acts, but I love to watch him when his brain lets him get advantage over the offensive payer.