The decline of superstar level development in US Basketball - How Fortnite and Minecraft killed US superstars

[Special_Puppy]

75%+ of NBA players were born in the U.S. and 80% of last years All-NBA team.

[peZt]

75%+ of NBA players were born in the U.S. and 80% of last years All-NBA team.

And despite making up 75% of players, they only make up what, 20% of true superstars? 0% if we say that the only true superstars in the league are Luka, Shai, Jokic and Giannis. So thanks for proving my point

[jasonxxx102]

Some toughts:
- You get to see the best of the best when it comes to international talent in the NBA.
- rest of the world has simply closed the gap and raised its game, so their homegrown talent is afforded similar opportunities to those that U.S. players have.
- best talents are still exceptional, but standards have risen, so they tend to stand out less - it was easy to be amazed by Barkley’s talent when more than half of his contemporaries playing forwad position couldn’t even dribble.

I think this is an excellent point

[jasonxxx102]

75%+ of NBA players were born in the U.S. and 80% of last years All-NBA team.

And despite making up 75% of players, they only make up what, 20% of true superstars? 0% if we say that the only true superstars in the league are Luka, Shai, Jokic and Giannis. So thanks for proving my point

What is a "true" superstar?

These are just arbitrary measurements of nothing other than personal preference

[prophet_of_rage]

I’ll have to sit down and read the whole thing in a bit to see if there’s any nuance but I completely disagree with the premise.

Kids who are in the top 1% of athletic talent who end up making the league aren’t trading playing time for video games.

Maybe they aren’t playing as much street ball but that’s because they are playing organized basketball from age 5.

I think part of it is just how basketball is played here in the US vs the World both with style and the leagues. The best players in Europe are playing as pros as teenagers and learning fundamentals. US teenagers are playing me first AAU ball and dominating other kids

It’s also a bad comparison because you’re comparing the entire world or entire countries against the US. You only get the very best of the best of the entire world that come to the NBA so of course it will be more slanted towards superstars

The video game thing is more of a clickbait, the real reason is the lack of streetball, whether this is due to playing more video games or now who knows.

Like you said, they are playing orgnaized Basketball from age 5. But this was always the case. Nothing about this changed. But what changed is that thosusands of hours of streetball training and development is missing. And as with any other skill in the world, if you have thousands of hours missing, you will miss the skill development that comes with that. And like you said, the style of both leagues and systems is making up for that more in Europe vs. US. The US system with AAU and random dads as coaches is not a great environment. But the kids in the past still developed superstar talent because of these thousands of hours, which are now missing.

And also Im not comparing US vs. the World. You can completely ignore the rest of the world in my argument and post. I am mostly comparing current US generation vs. past US generations. Yes, the rest of the world will be more slanted towards superstars, but this does not mean there can be no superstars in the US. But unless you think the top US guys like Tatum or Ant are on the same level as the superstars from the past, it clearly is the case

maybe you're not from the US, but this just simply is not true.

The basketball industrial complex has grown massively in the US in the last ~20 years.

I think guys like Tatum and Ant are more talented than 90% of players in history so yea, they are on par with guys of the past. You're just romanticizing 90s basketball

That's the real issue. Romanticisation. There aren't superstars because the media won't call them superstars.

Take Jalen Brunson. His footwork is elite and easily on par with Kobe. EASILY. And he wins but the NBA doesn't push him as Brunson and the Knicks.

There is nothing Ant Man doesn't have that young Kobe had.

Jayson Tatum is one of the smoothest basketball players in the world. But everybody wanted to tear him down and say the Celtics were better with Jaylen Brown.

I am Canadian and while SGA is the best guard in the NBA who's the next best Canadian? Luka ... next best Slovenian? Jokic ... next best Serbian? Giannis ... next best Greek? Wemby ... next best Frenchman? Sure the NBA's top 5 are non-American unicotns but the bulk of the tio 50 is American. Comoaring a country to the world has always been silly. Canada used to say that about its baskwtball too. Europe produces more NBA players tuan Canada. We shoukd follow their model not the US! Canada produces the seconf most NBA players and guess what they develoo under the American model.

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[prophet_of_rage]

you're comparing entire careers of prior players against guys who are just entering their prime lol.

Tatum is already 4x 1st team all-nba, Ant has 2 2nd team all nba and looks like he could be an MVP caliber player at 24.

Basketball is different now, the top players are just as talented as they were in any era.

Tatum and Ant for as good or talented as they are, aren’t anywhere near the level of players like Duncan, Kobe and etc in my perspective at same ages.

You can think otherwise… but it is a hard sell for people who have watched them throughout their career.

If you would have said SGA and Luka… yeah I can buy that.

Well Shai is Canadian, which I think is close enough to consider the US but it was American stars only.

I absolutely believe Tatum and Ant are as talented as Kobe.

They are. They don't havr the marketing.

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[prophet_of_rage]

The US is producing tons or extremely good players, and that's the system.
To have someone reach tier 1 level is mostly about luck.
See Italy and tennis, nowadays. The system improved and they have now Berrettini, Sonego, Musetti, Cobolli... you can control that, creatong the right conditions. But to find a Sinner it's primarily luck.

If I look at the current top tier, I see
- physical freaks --> Giannis and Wemby
- absolute geniuses --> Luka and Jokic
- mix of the two --> Shai

If I look at the last 10 years, the physical freak (Zion) got lost (for now). Not sure about the other categories.

Your point mostly tracks, but what physical freak attribute does Shai have though?

I think it's a cambination of balance and quickness. I was not sure how to define him because he's not the kind of savant Luka and Jokic are, but not a monster like Wemby.
If you can better define his greatness vs other NA guys, happy to hear!

Work ethic. Like Kobe.

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[Capn'O]

I guess my question is who should have become a superstar that didn't from the US system? There's Zion, unfortunately. But other than that from the top recent US stars:

Brunson
Mitchell
Tatum
Haliburton
Booker
Towns
Ant
Cade

Towns, Cade, and Ant were #1s but none of them were expected to be generational. Just perennial all star types and they became that. The others massively overachieved their expectations in the league. USA is still putting out a lot of great talent and I hardly think the failure of one guy defines the US system as a failure.

My point is that all of these players would be better if they did not go through the US school system but through the european club system.

Now imagine Jayson Tatum

In one universe he grows up in the US. He starts playing school Basketball at his local primary school. His coach is the father of one the players with no proper coaching education and background. Therefore the coach isnt up to date with proper development programs, techniques etc. And this goes on until he reaches a top level prep or high school.

In the other universe Tatum grows up in France. He joins the local team and immediately moves up a regional power house that has professional youth coaches, nutritionists and trainers. From the age of 10 he plays here, with coaches that go to regular seminars to get up to date on new training methods etc. They simply bet better development by the coaching and youth program.

Tatums talent and physical requirements is the same in both universes. But in one universe he gets grade A level of develpoment and coaching starting from age 8. And in the other he gets grade D level coaching in primary school. Grade B level in middle school and only Grade A level coaching once he joins a top prep/high school. Obviously this lower quality of development will accumulate over time.

That's the exact reason why european sports clubs are spending MILLIONS into their youth departments. Bayern Munich spent 100!!! million € on creating their youth campus and youth development program. They are doing this because it is known and obvious that the better the development kids get the better they will become at the end. And obviously a random school in the US can not offer the same level and quality of development as these clubs that are spending millions into their youth programs.


Is the US still producing the most pro players? Yes, becuase of the sheer number of the player pool. If you have Grade B level coaching, but 2,000,000 kids that player basketball regularly in school and participate in school sports, you will still develop a huge number of pro players.

In Europe, even with A level coaching and development, you can not make up for that due to the lower numbers. So the ones that do play Basketball are developed much better in Europe, but there are just way way fewer of those.


And my point is that this Grade C-B level coaching school system did not have such a negative effect in the development of superstars int he past because they accumulated thousnads of hours playing street ball until they reached age 18. They dont do that anymore, so the mediocre coachign at the school has to make up for this. But it can't.

I do like the idea of having players come up in a pro system. There's some real value in that imo. But I don't buy what you're selling here at all.

First of all, players coming from international programs are not known as having superior physiques. Really the opposite is the stereotype. I'm not personally involved in the nutrition/training programs but we often see these athletes' bodies changing substantially after they come here.

Second, I think the skill argument is overblown as well. Tatum is a terrifically refined/skilled player and NOT a complete physical outlier. His conditioning is nothing short of impeccable and that dates back to college and before and his skill level is phenomenal. Again, I would put him in the category of players who massively overachieved their talent level.

But, beyond that, you're really talking about the success story of two players: Doncic and Jokic.

Wemby and Giannis are absolute physical freak outlier athletes, which you can hardly attribute to some superior training system.

SGA and Embiid (I include him because he would still be at the top without injuries) are not US born but DID develop in the US system and became superstars in the league.

And that leaves Jokic and Doncic whose superior talent is augmented by savant mental talent on top of their physical abilities. How does this prove any rule?

There are some players you can point to who sniffed their own asses in the US system and thought it was steak but you also have the Mario Hezonjas, Dragan Benders, and Frank Ntilikinas in the European system who never amount to what maybe they could have.


We don't just produce the most NBA players. We far and away produce the most stars. Something I do subscribe to however... the US just doesn't produce bigs like we used to and I'd be curious to hear some theories behind that.

[og15]

Your point mostly tracks, but what physical freak attribute does Shai have though?

I think it's a cambination of balance and quickness. I was not sure how to define him because he's not the kind of savant Luka and Jokic are, but not a monster like Wemby.
If you can better define his greatness vs other NA guys, happy to hear!

Work ethic. Like Kobe.

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Yea, he's at the highest end of work ethic. Lots of guys work really hard of course and not everyone who works really hard can even be a star or starter as there's still a physical tools aspect to it.

Shai has physical and mental tools that in their combination are great and allow him to be great, but he's not a physical freak by any means.

[Black Jack]

The decline of streetball is real and depressing. In my era the bay area had hotspots all over where you could go for some super intense games. Good players had star status on the streets. Hell I even knew of one court where there were older dudes gambling and playing for winning pots, and my pops warned me not to go because you could lose your amateur status if it got busted.

Now? it's sad, all the spots I played at, theres little or no pickup and certainly nothing like it was. The Cal open gym is done I think, now you need university affiliation to even get in there whereas in the 90s I literally got to run against pros, college players, and streetball legends with big names there.

It's sad to see the streetball culture die away like that. There were annoying aspects like arguing over calls too much but it was actually a thriving subculture and we used to have a lot of fun.

[Woodsanity]

Isn't Luka a top player in overwatch? I don't think gaming has anything to do with it lol.

[Shootit]

My uneducated take right now is that "generational" talent is something that we don't see every 5-15 years.
We got spoiled with LBJ coming in during Kobe's prime. D-Wade shot up his last year in college, but I don't remember pre-draft talk and then what he ultimately became.
Guys like Durant, Curry, AD(when healthy) I think we just lucky that all came around the same time.

There may be a lull in top USA talent, but I don't think it has to do with video games or minor sports. It just is a mix of luck and development/mindset.

[Capn'O]

The decline of streetball is real and depressing. In my era the bay area had hotspots all over where you could go for some super intense games. Good players had star status on the streets. Hell I even knew of one court where there were older dudes gambling and playing for winning pots, and my pops warned me not to go because you could lose your amateur status if it got busted.

Now? it's sad, all the spots I played at, theres little or no pickup and certainly nothing like it was. The Cal open gym is done I think, now you need university affiliation to even get in there whereas in the 90s I literally got to run against pros, college players, and streetball legends with big names there.

It's sad to see the streetball culture die away like that. There were annoying aspects like arguing over calls too much but it was actually a thriving subculture and we used to have a lot of fun.

That sucks.

Generally, this is in line with other trends that keep young people in more structured spaces. Packs of kids no longer roam the streets. I understand why but there's a lot that's lost with that.

[Speedlot]

Almost as dumb as video game violence. Let's go to congress about it.

[Woodsanity]

My uneducated take right now is that "generational" talent is something that we don't see every 5-15 years.
We got spoiled with LBJ coming in during Kobe's prime. D-Wade shot up his last year in college, but I don't remember pre-draft talk and then what he ultimately became.
Guys like Durant, Curry, AD(when healthy) I think we just lucky that all came around the same time.

There may be a lull in top USA talent, but I don't think it has to do with video games or minor sports. It just is a mix of luck and development/mindset.

There is no way the USA doesn't have tons of talented players. Development is just poor here now.

Giannis, SGA, Jokic, Embiid, Luka and soon Wemby. None of these guys are Americans. Its a shame we don't even have a top 5 player now.

We have some debatable or fringe superstars but no clearcut ones.

[knicksfan974]

It's not only video games but really the problem is social media. These kids nowadays are addicted to their phones and social media, and just doomscroll hour after hour. Many of them could have become something in sports and in life, but they opted to waste their life scrolling and scrolling. What a waste.

[Jailblazers7]

Childhood mortality under the age of 18 is 80% higher in the US than other developed countries. Gun violence, drugs, a broken medical system, etc. Think of all the wasted talent and opportunity because we feed our kids to the wood chipper.

[Duke4life831]

But here’s the thing. 2 out of the last 3 MVP winners while yes weren’t born in the US, used the US development system.

Embiid barely played any basketball before moving out here to go to US high school/AAU then college. SGA moved to the US to go to US high schools for the entire reason to get better competition and development.

Now we just had Cooper Flagg enter the league. And if it wasn’t for the alien Wemby, he’d probably be the most hyped rookie since LeBron.

Now ya the game is far more global than ever before. And just from sheer numbers there is a better chance to find a freak physical human outside of the US.

Wemby is unlike anyone we’ve ever seen. Giannis is literally called the Greek freak. Someone his size that moves that like him is freakish and rarely comes around. And Jokic is just Jokic haha.

Ya the game is far more global than ever before. So expect more superstars that come internationally. We’re also not all that separated from NBA fans getting tired of LeBron and Curry dominating the league and meeting up in the finals every year.

[Fencer reregistered]

I guess my question is who should have become a superstar that didn't from the US system? There's Zion, unfortunately. But other than that from the top recent US stars:

Brunson
Mitchell
Tatum
Haliburton
Booker
Towns
Ant
Cade

Towns, Cade, and Ant were #1s but none of them were expected to be generational. Just perennial all star types and they became that. The others massively overachieved their expectations in the league. USA is still putting out a lot of great talent and I hardly think the failure of one guy defines the US system as a failure.

My point is that all of these players would be better if they did not go through the US school system but through the european club system.

Now imagine Jayson Tatum

In one universe he grows up in the US. He starts playing school Basketball at his local primary school. His coach is the father of one the players with no proper coaching education and background. Therefore the coach isnt up to date with proper development programs, techniques etc. And this goes on until he reaches a top level prep or high school.

In the other universe Tatum grows up in France. He joins the local team and immediately moves up a regional power house that has professional youth coaches, nutritionists and trainers. From the age of 10 he plays here, with coaches that go to regular seminars to get up to date on new training methods etc. They simply bet better development by the coaching and youth program.

Tatums talent and physical requirements is the same in both universes. But in one universe he gets grade A level of develpoment and coaching starting from age 8. And in the other he gets grade D level coaching in primary school. Grade B level in middle school and only Grade A level coaching once he joins a top prep/high school. Obviously this lower quality of development will accumulate over time.

That's the exact reason why european sports clubs are spending MILLIONS into their youth departments. Bayern Munich spent 100!!! million € on creating their youth campus and youth development program. They are doing this because it is known and obvious that the better the development kids get the better they will become at the end. And obviously a random school in the US can not offer the same level and quality of development as these clubs that are spending millions into their youth programs.


Is the US still producing the most pro players? Yes, becuase of the sheer number of the player pool. If you have Grade B level coaching, but 2,000,000 kids that player basketball regularly in school and participate in school sports, you will still develop a huge number of pro players.

In Europe, even with A level coaching and development, you can not make up for that due to the lower numbers. So the ones that do play Basketball are developed much better in Europe, but there are just way way fewer of those.


And my point is that this Grade C-B level coaching school system did not have such a negative effect in the development of superstars int he past because they accumulated thousnads of hours playing street ball until they reached age 18. They dont do that anymore, so the mediocre coachign at the school has to make up for this. But it can't.



Also youre not accounting for the kids that got lost due to the point I made and that we dont know today. Again, it is proven by studies that kids play less and less outside and spent less and less time playing street ball. Even LeBron said that it changed and street ball was a major factor in his development, and this doent happen anymore. So you also have to think about this:
Is there a alternative universe where kids still play outside until its dark, that there is a kid that starts picking up a basketball (because everybody does) and then discovers his talent and desire for Basketball, develops his skills etc. And because of this, he reaches star level some day.
In our universe, this kid never picks up a basketball properly because nobody plays outside anymore, he doesnt discover his love for Basketball, he doesnt develop his skills etc., maybe he doesnt join the school basketball team, his talent gets lost.

I mean we are talking about thousands of hours that kids in the past were spending on the street courts. This will undeniably lead to a reality where a lot of kids developed less skills thatn they would have otherwise if they did spend those thousands of hours there. So we dont know how good these and other players would have become in an alternative universe. But we definitely know that spending thousands of hours playing something until you are 18, will make you better at it

Unfortunately for your example of Tatum:

-- He was basketball-obsessed from the time he was a tiny kid.
-- The "random dad" in your example was actually Tatum's own father, once he returned from playing pro ball in Europe.
-- Or maybe it was his godfather, NBA player Larry Hughes.
-- Tatum's circle also included pseudo older brother Bradley Beal.

[Fencer reregistered]

Anthony Edwards' young years, at least according to his Wikipedia bio, also conflict with the argument in this thread.