Is it easy to score 40 or 50 points in today's NBA or are the players incredibly talented?

[bonita_the_frog]

NBA defense in the regular season has been a total joke for years and years.

I agree, Adam Silver must really hate basketball.
All he cares about is the scoreboard...

[f4p]

Of the top 25 scorers last year, how many actually averaged 30ppg? Just 2 (Shai and Giannis) or 3 if you round up (Jokic).

Next guy avg 27 (Ant), 4 guys avg 26 (JT, KD, Cade, Brunson), 1 avg 25 (Booker) and everyone else between 24 and 21… with Powell and JDub rounding out the top 25.

All of those guys would put up similar numbers as a 1 or 2 option in any era of the past 25 years.

Cade would absolutely not score 26 ppg in any recent era. And 80 year old KD would not either. KD was basically averaging the last 2 years what he was in his prime in 2012 and 2013.

[NoDopeOnSundays]

Of the top 25 scorers last year, how many actually averaged 30ppg? Just 2 (Shai and Giannis) or 3 if you round up (Jokic).

Next guy avg 27 (Ant), 4 guys avg 26 (JT, KD, Cade, Brunson), 1 avg 25 (Booker) and everyone else between 24 and 21… with Powell and JDub rounding out the top 25.

All of those guys would put up similar numbers as a 1 or 2 option in any era of the past 25 years.

Cade would absolutely not score 26 ppg in any recent era. And 80 year old KD would not either. KD was basically averaging the last 2 years what he was in his prime in 2012 and 2013.

Cade wouldn't score 26ppg in any recent era, why not exactly? He's 6'6" and can handle the ball.

20 years ago Gilbert Arenas was averaging 29ppg and Michael Redd averaged 25ppg, but Cade couldn't? And 10 years before that Jamal Mashburn averaged 24ppg.

[f4p]

While players might be more talented, just like they are in basically every sports league as time goes by, the argument mostly rings hollow. The league ORtg in 2018 was 108.6. In 1987, it was 108.3. 30 years and basically no change. And that's with a massive influx of international talent and 3 point attempts going from 4.7 per game to 29.0 per game.

Then, in just 5 years, the league Ortg jumped by over 6 points to 114.8!! In that time, 3 point attempts only went from 29.0 to 34.2 per game and international talent had largely flattened out as a proportion of the overall league. And even if you want to argue we've had higher end guys like jokic and Giannis, that has been cancelled out by the US MVP guys from the 2010s not being replaced at all.

There is no talent-based explanation for such an absolutely massive shift in league environment in just 5 years. Not enough talent could have been added.

But there has been a massive shift in allowing moving picks, essentially making traveling require 4 steps instead of 3, and in teams prioritizing shooting and getting up the court quickly over any sort of defensive skills. Which makes sense, because trying to hold another team to a low point total when they can just set moving screens and carry and travel to score with all their 3 point shooters doesn't make sense versus just having a "when in Rome" approach. Just like 25 years ago having a shooter who couldnt guard anyone didn't make sense because your shooter was probably taking a lot of long 2's and the rules allowed you to physically prevent scoring and the other team wasn't going to have 5 shooters you needed to guard so playing defense and rebounding was at much more of a premium.

[Ben-N1ce]

Reaves would be the logo if he played against plumbers.

[Calvin Klein]

of course it's easier. Just as it was in the early 60s.

There are more points available with more possessions, more 3s, more rules that limit the offense. This shouldn't even be a question.

Teams regularly put up 140 point games like it's nothing.

[JellosJigglin]

The league removed physicality from the game. That has changed the culture and player attitudes about how to play defense. It used to be considered risky and even dangerous for small guys to go into the paint. You were expected to lay out anyone who keeps coming into the paint. That was just baked into the culture. Everyone knew it, everyone accepted it as the way it was.

You would knock them on their ass to send a message and let them take 2 free throws for a common foul and at least one new bruise. If they did it again then you knock them down a little harder. This was why we respected guys like AI and Isaiah Thomas who seemed to keep coming back for more without any fear. It was a big-man's game back then and scoring inside was the top priority, not the 3-ball.

Now days I see guys dribbling into the paint uncontested and even a light tap on the wrist sends them to the line. It's just a different culture. A much softer game.

[f4p]

And then on the perimeter it's gotten ridiculous. Every team has players who can cross you over, every team has players who can create their own step back 3pter, every team has players who move and shoot like Miller or Korver. The skill level is sky high.

So I think a lot of this is just practicing, not some inherent skill of the increased talent pool. Like practically no one ever took a step back 3, mostly because it would have been illegal for the first 70 years of the league, then it got popularized and the same guys who weren't taking it became the guys taking them. Because they just practiced it. PFs who had never taken 3s in their life would come back after an off-season of practice with a 35% 3 point shot. Professional athletes get good at things they practice. I have no doubt if you told the average 90s guard that they could launch a 3 off the dribble after a pick without being benched by the coach, that they could do it. Or if you told guys they could give their defender the Heisman like Tatum that they would have learned it. Or if you told Barkley that he could just run over people and it would be a defensive foul like with giannis, that he would start doing it. Or if you said defense and rebounding and strength don't matter but 3s do, that a lot of seemingly non-shooter PFs would suddenly have had better 3 point shots.

You can't play trash defense and just wave a hand in a shooters face after the shot, even a hand in the face during the shot isn't going to do much against the great shooters. You almost have to risk fouling a 3pt shooter to truly contest their shot and then you've made it a lot easier for them to drive around you and then your defense goes in to rotation.

That's another thing. You used to contest jump shots without too much worry of a foul. Now you even look at a 3 point shooter and not only is it a foul, it's a 3 shot foul. Foulong someone on a almost automatic 2 point dunk attempt is now substantially less penalized than fouling someone on a 3 point shot that's worth on average about 1 point. They've completely flipped the value of those fouls and now a league where everyone can shoot 3s is also a league where you can't contest those 3s because the risk reward is crazy against you.

[Myth]

Probably related, but the free throws are out of control. 12-16 free throws seem regular for star players now. Shai had a 26 free throw game. I can't believe the league made it even easier to be sent to the foul line when there were already concerns about the league being soft and games being slowed down. You think people are sick of how many 3s are shot in games? This free throw thing is going to be a bigger issue eventually. It seems the league wants to draw people in with stats, but they will be turned away by the whistles and stoppage in play for free throws. I have never understood why the league thinks 100 and less points in a game is a problem when people are fully willing to watch sports like soccer and hockey that end with scores like 3-1.

[DavidSterned]

The "players are more skilled" argument really only applies to one skill: 3 point shooting. I reject the ball handling arguments since the rules are applied so differently now for them that it might as well be a different sport compared to pre-2000.

The homogenization of skill sets and playing styles really hasn't made the game more appealing. The league basically has just emphasized one skill over all others to the point where they are verging on being obsolete.

How fun would the NFL be if they made an even further gigantic reduction in the amount of defensive physicality allowed and the rules were also changed to allow teams to have as many eligible receivers as they wanted? So now it's essentially just one QB with 10 wide receivers going against some glorified traffic cones on defense. Positionless football with every team strategy feeling the exact same and the personnel feeling weirdly redundant? Would make for a super crappy product.

That kind of feels like where the NBA has been headed.

[DonaldSanders]

Remember we got the answer to this question last playoffs. Scoring went down when physical defense was allowed.

The players are also extremely talented, more so than ever on average with the international NBA.

[JN61]

Yeah, so in the entire month of October last season there were almost half as many 40+ point games as in the first six days of this season.
I wouldn't be surprised if this was by far the most 40+ and 50+ point games in the first six days of any season ever.

And if you stretch it to end of November and lower the qualification to 38 (is that really that much different than 40) you get basically 30 such games from different players and wasn't last season supposed to be more tightly refereed game... This seems to be nightly occurring thing these days to score that 40 range. But I don't know why anyone is surprised after decade of stripping away defences from this league and as a result defenders do not care or take pride on defending their man. Just focus on scoring themselves.

Can you spell out your theory of why officiating is to blame here? It seems wildly out of touch with the basics of recent NBA history but I don't want to judge you without hearing more.

My very very quick counter is that with today's spacing (and drive and kick strategies) getting even more extreme, players can get off shots much more easily than in the past--and if a guy happens to be red hot one game it's a lot easier for him to get up a big volume of shots. Like Aaron Gordon is not a great shooter but these days any decent team can fairly easily get double digit 3s in any game, and if you're scorching that's gonna get you close to 40 ppg.

I feel like the complaint people should have about today's game is how much it comes down to random shooting streaks and luck, not anything about officiating. E.g. looks like a majority of 35+ pt game this season have been with guys getting less than 10 pts va FTs, meaning they're scoring like 75% of their pts from the field.

If you aren't aware of all the wild radical rule changes of the last 15 years take your time to read them before writing wall of text

[Mephariel]

I mean we have a direct comparison to declining superstars: We still have guys like KD, Curry, LeBron, Harden etc. in the league. And we know that the current crop of players who get these 50 point games are not on the same level as the previous generation of superstars, with the exception of the top 4 players who are all international. Especially the group of the best american players is the worst its been in decades. Yet, the current crop of players have a far easier time scoring 50 points than the superstars I mentioned above had a decade ago. So its mostly a testament to how easier it has become to get those numbers. Due to spacing, ruleset etc. But not because the players are better

I mean look at the potential Olympic 2028 roster for the US. It looks like the worst olympic roster since the 80s. So it obviously can not be because the players are getting better. Its the opposite

It definitely is because the players are better. The bulls had Kerr, Longley, Jud Buechler, Ron Harper on their championship roster. Role players today way more skilled than them. They can shoot 3 pointers in a more variety of ways. They played against more complex defenses, and they are more athletic.

The USA may not have the best crop of stars right now, but certainly the talent overall has risen.

[Mephariel]

The league removed physicality from the game. That has changed the culture and player attitudes about how to play defense. It used to be considered risky and even dangerous for small guys to go into the paint. You were expected to lay out anyone who keeps coming into the paint. That was just baked into the culture. Everyone knew it, everyone accepted it as the way it was.

You would knock them on their ass to send a message and let them take 2 free throws for a common foul and at least one new bruise. If they did it again then you knock them down a little harder. This was why we respected guys like AI and Isaiah Thomas who seemed to keep coming back for more without any fear. It was a big-man's game back then and scoring inside was the top priority, not the 3-ball.

Now days I see guys dribbling into the paint uncontested and even a light tap on the wrist sends them to the line. It's just a different culture. A much softer game.

This rose-tinted nostalgia needs to go. I grew up in the 90s, and I see Stockton and Hornacek routinely cut to the plaint and score without being lay out.

The game is definitely more fast pace now, and the rules relax a bit, but the exaggeration of the physicality preventing scoring needs to stop.

[peZt]

I mean we have a direct comparison to declining superstars: We still have guys like KD, Curry, LeBron, Harden etc. in the league. And we know that the current crop of players who get these 50 point games are not on the same level as the previous generation of superstars, with the exception of the top 4 players who are all international. Especially the group of the best american players is the worst its been in decades. Yet, the current crop of players have a far easier time scoring 50 points than the superstars I mentioned above had a decade ago. So its mostly a testament to how easier it has become to get those numbers. Due to spacing, ruleset etc. But not because the players are better

I mean look at the potential Olympic 2028 roster for the US. It looks like the worst olympic roster since the 80s. So it obviously can not be because the players are getting better. Its the opposite

It definitely is because the players are better. The bulls had Kerr, Longley, Jud Buechler, Ron Harper on their championship roster. Role players today way more skilled than them. They can shoot 3 pointers in a more variety of ways. They played against more complex defenses, and they are more athletic.

The USA may not have the best crop of stars right now, but certainly the talent overall has risen.

Definitely average level is much higher now than in the past. But that's actually even more so proving that its easier now. If even role players of today tend to have more 40 point games than all star level players from the past, despite clearly being worse, than its a sign that the game has become easier or rather more suited for players to have high scoring games

[Duke4life831]

I will say 1 thing, it is the super stars putting up the big games.

But with that said, after watching the 3 Mavs games and a few Magic games. They do need to allow guys to play some level of defense. Some of these games man, if a defender breathes on a ball handler, all he has to do is whip his head back acting like he got shot and just throw the ball up in the air, and he's heading to the line.

There has to be a solid middle ground between full on hand checking and where its at right now. Honestly I think if it was called like college basketball, it would be a funner game to watch. College allows a good amount more of physicality and defenders some more wiggle room. And I think that mixed with the skill level of the NBA would lead to a solid middle ground.

[dhsilv2]

Silver & Co. have changed the rules so much that it's like watching NBA2K in real life. I also believe that player effort on the defensive end is at an all time low. Defense just isn't "fun" for the majority of players.

How can people watch the game and think there's less effort today than in the past? if the effort was the same as in the 90's teams would average 150 a game...

[Rdude22]

I hate it!

I wish they were only scoring game highs of 18 on 40% shooting running ‘04 Detroit offenses!

Who told that weirdo Aaron Gordon to be a knockdown shooter anyway?? He better get his a** back to bricking them Horace Grant elbow jumpers!

[dhsilv2]

Probably related, but the free throws are out of control. 12-16 free throws seem regular for star players now. Shai had a 26 free throw game. I can't believe the league made it even easier to be sent to the foul line when there were already concerns about the league being soft and games being slowed down. You think people are sick of how many 3s are shot in games? This free throw thing is going to be a bigger issue eventually. It seems the league wants to draw people in with stats, but they will be turned away by the whistles and stoppage in play for free throws. I have never understood why the league thinks 100 and less points in a game is a problem when people are fully willing to watch sports like soccer and hockey that end with scores like 3-1.

I mean 90% of NBA history had teams averaging over 100. But that aside, free throws? 1992 teams averaged 26.7. They're at 28.2 this year. Teams scored 105.3 in 1992 vs 118.5.

Free throws are adding 1.5 points a game from 1992 while scoring is up 13.2. it isn't the line where in general free throw rates have been declining.

[dhsilv2]

Remember we got the answer to this question last playoffs. Scoring went down when physical defense was allowed.

The players are also extremely talented, more so than ever on average with the international NBA.

The gap in defense is pretty noticeable the last few years for sure and the league needs to do something to reduce this. But it's always been the case defense picked up in the playoffs.

That said we're talking 113 vs 108 points with a pace of about 3 less which alone would adjusted be about 109.5 so that's over half of the gap.