Image ImageImage Image

Are people too hard on Billy Donovan?

Moderators: HomoSapien, coldfish, Payt10, Ice Man, dougthonus, Michael Jackson, Tommy Udo 6 , kulaz3000, DASMACKDOWN, fleet, GimmeDat, RedBulls23, AshyLarrysDiaper

User avatar
Red Larrivee
RealGM
Posts: 42,318
And1: 19,213
Joined: Feb 15, 2007
Location: Hogging Microphone Time From Tom Dore

Re: Are people too hard on Billy Donovan? 

Post#161 » by Red Larrivee » Mon Oct 27, 2025 7:41 pm

dougthonus wrote:Do you think Donovan is not good or do you think just this single point doesn't have that much merit?

Sure, I agree you can argue about how much to weigh his HOF election in this equation. I certainly think it has some merit and isn't of zero value, but how much merit is definitely up for debate. It's also why I added the other points and didn't rely on this single point.

I actually think Donovan's Florida tenure says more about coaching than a lot of HOF college coaches. Prior to Donovan: 1 elite 8 appearance, under Donovan, 7 elite 8s (5 in the final 4, 1 runner up, 2 titles), after Donovan, 2 elite 8s (1 final four). Florida hasn't generally been a basketball powerhouse outside of Donovan. It's not like he got the Duke, Kentucky, or NC job and just got a parade of elite recruits every year.

That said, I agree, it's still college, and college is a different animal.


Also, in his first college HC gig, he turned around Marshall. They were 9-18 the year before him and they won the regular season title in the Southern conference in his first year. I've yet to see him leave a team in worse shape than when he found it.

Coaching isn't like evaluating players, where everyone more/less agrees where each player ranks and the value of having that player on your team. It's much more subjective. Some people here swear by Tom Thibodeau even though 3 organizations fired him for the same reason. It is what it is. If someone doesn't like Billy Donovan, then that's fine. But, if we're sitting here acting like he can't coach and that he's holding the team back from something, then there's just too much evidence that suggests otherwise.

We talk about how unheard of it is for a coach to still be here after 6 seasons with 1 playoff appearance in 5 years. I think it's unheard of for a coach to still have locker room, organization and ownership buy-in from after 1 playoff appearance in 5 years.
User avatar
MikeDC
Analyst
Posts: 3,218
And1: 2,022
Joined: Jan 23, 2002
Location: DC Area

Re: Are people too hard on Billy Donovan? 

Post#162 » by MikeDC » Mon Oct 27, 2025 7:58 pm

1. I'd guess that real difference between average coaches and good coaches isn't revealed very often until the playoffs. I'd be surprised if coaching didn't account for 1-2 playoff wins. The number of adjustments and changes per game goes up dramatically.

Like, I don't think there's a huge difference in the regular season between Jamahl Mosely or Chris Finch and Eric Spoelstra. But I know for sure who I want in the playoffs.

2. Coaches seem like they get paid at least in part in organizational equity. Great coaches tend to get a long-leash and a lot of clout after they've been recognized as great.
User avatar
Red Larrivee
RealGM
Posts: 42,318
And1: 19,213
Joined: Feb 15, 2007
Location: Hogging Microphone Time From Tom Dore

Re: Are people too hard on Billy Donovan? 

Post#163 » by Red Larrivee » Mon Oct 27, 2025 8:01 pm

MikeDC wrote:1. I'd guess that real difference between average coaches and good coaches isn't revealed very often until the playoffs. I'd be surprised if coaching didn't account for 1-2 playoff wins. The number of adjustments and changes per game goes up dramatically.

Like, I don't think there's a huge difference in the regular season between Jamahl Mosely or Chris Finch and Eric Spoelstra. But I know for sure who I want in the playoffs.

2. Coaches seem like they get paid at least in part in organizational equity. Great coaches tend to get a long-leash and a lot of clout after they've been recognized as great.


2 years ago, Jason Kidd "beat" Ty Lue, Mark Daigneault, and Chris Finch en route to the Finals.

Of course, we know why they really won those series and it had little to do with coaching.
User avatar
Jcool0
RealGM
Posts: 15,367
And1: 9,331
Joined: Jul 12, 2014
Location: Illinois
         

Re: Are people too hard on Billy Donovan? 

Post#164 » by Jcool0 » Mon Oct 27, 2025 8:17 pm

dougthonus wrote:
Jcool0 wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
Say you could have any coach in the NBA right now, whomever you think the best guy in the world is, what record do you think they'd have with the Bulls?

I don't think Billy should be above reproach by any sense, but I also think it's pretty obvious why he is here despite a mediocre record, because we have done better than vegas and all independent expert models would expect more or less every year he's been here.

Once you hit non idiot levels (ie, someone like Jim Boylen could tank any team), my view is that the gap between the impact of a great coach and average coach is probably pretty minimal as long as the players buy into the coach (which the Bulls players obviously buy into Billy). If a great coach could add 5 wins over a good coach (as an example), coaching salaries would probably be 40-50M+ a year.

Coaches are paid like they add 1-2 wins, and Billy's statistical evidence is that he adds 1-2 wins.

I wouldn't cry if we fired him, but I'd be really surprised if we replaced him with someone better. That said, this is actually a great time to be looking for a head coach. There are a high number of guys that seem quite competent available right now.


Coaches id say would add +5 wins to Chicago:

Chris Finch

Tom Thibodeau

Ime Udoka

Mark Daigneault

Rick Carlisle

Joe Mazzulla

Erik Spoelstra


Love all the guys you mentioned, don't believe any would add 5 wins FWIW, but that's just a difference in how much we think coaching has an impact.


Yeah... Thibs might add 10 wins... with Matas & Giddey playing 40 a night.
User avatar
dougthonus
Senior Mod - Bulls
Senior Mod - Bulls
Posts: 58,895
And1: 18,982
Joined: Dec 22, 2004
Contact:
 

Re: Are people too hard on Billy Donovan? 

Post#165 » by dougthonus » Mon Oct 27, 2025 9:27 pm

Jcool0 wrote:Yeah... Thibs might add 10 wins... with Matas & Giddey playing 40 a night.


Giddey would probably go 47. Matas in his rookie year would have had 5. :lol:
Ice Man
Forum Mod - Bulls
Forum Mod - Bulls
Posts: 27,039
And1: 16,078
Joined: Apr 19, 2011

Re: Are people too hard on Billy Donovan? 

Post#166 » by Ice Man » Mon Oct 27, 2025 9:58 pm

The only coach I can think of who might instantly bring 5 wins a team's roster (the Bulls or otherwise) is Thibs. But there is a price to pay for that.
User avatar
Jcool0
RealGM
Posts: 15,367
And1: 9,331
Joined: Jul 12, 2014
Location: Illinois
         

Re: Are people too hard on Billy Donovan? 

Post#167 » by Jcool0 » Mon Oct 27, 2025 10:33 pm

Ice Man wrote:The only coach I can think of who might instantly bring 5 wins a team's roster (the Bulls or otherwise) is Thibs. But there is a price to pay for that.


I think Ime Udoka, Rick Carlisle and Erik Spoelstra would for sure have the Bulls in the playoffs.
User avatar
MikeDC
Analyst
Posts: 3,218
And1: 2,022
Joined: Jan 23, 2002
Location: DC Area

Re: Are people too hard on Billy Donovan? 

Post#168 » by MikeDC » Mon Oct 27, 2025 11:42 pm

Red Larrivee wrote:
MikeDC wrote:1. I'd guess that real difference between average coaches and good coaches isn't revealed very often until the playoffs. I'd be surprised if coaching didn't account for 1-2 playoff wins. The number of adjustments and changes per game goes up dramatically.

Like, I don't think there's a huge difference in the regular season between Jamahl Mosely or Chris Finch and Eric Spoelstra. But I know for sure who I want in the playoffs.

2. Coaches seem like they get paid at least in part in organizational equity. Great coaches tend to get a long-leash and a lot of clout after they've been recognized as great.


2 years ago, Jason Kidd "beat" Ty Lue, Mark Daigneault, and Chris Finch en route to the Finals.

Of course, we know why they really won those series and it had little to do with coaching.


:roll:
User avatar
coldfish
Forum Mod - Bulls
Forum Mod - Bulls
Posts: 60,696
And1: 38,033
Joined: Jun 11, 2004
Location: Right in the middle
   

Re: Are people too hard on Billy Donovan? 

Post#169 » by coldfish » Today 3:55 am

Yes

Return to Chicago Bulls