Game 4: Portland vs LA Lakers 7:30pm RipCitytv KUPN

[mighty_duck]

What a great line by Sharpe - 6-10 for 2, 7 boards, 2 assists, 4 steals. Then he ruins it by going 0/6 for 3 (would also be nice to cut down on the 5 turnovers, but those are harder to control).
Someone needs to tell him he is not Steph. Nothing wrong with having a DDR type shot selection.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Bad game and we win, took care of business I guess. That sounds bad but I feel like the last few years under Billups even the games we should have won we couldn't often have gotten away with playing this poorly. Maybe this is looking too hard for a silver lining, besides Deni and Holiday we still played down to the level of our competition in a way that was all too familiar, but it seems like we have more latitude for mistakes than we did last year because our defense keeps us in it.

Sharpe has sloppy handles, prefers going one direction strongly (not much ability to change directions) and settles for lazy 3s. That's a little tough combo against a defense prepared for him and forces him off ball. In the mid range you can pressure him into a fumble, and if he drives you know which way to funnel him and so you can bait him into his proclivity for taking bad shots from deep. Maybe he gets hot some night but unless he proves he can do that consistently it's not a good shot for him. Heat check 3s when you havent already seen a couple go in are so bad that any coach should be ashamed of their player doing it unless they are long time proven shooters like Lillard. But we need Sharpe to improve and that means playing through mistakes, but I do think we need to get him some early buckets closer to the hoop before he starts looking for the 3.

It's going to be hard to wait on Yang and that Orlando pick better be good because a bird in hand is so much better than two in the bush.

[zzaj]

I'll say it again...I'm not all that worried about Sharpe. But a lot of that is because I've never really bought into the idea that he's going to be a #1 option on a good team. Right now he's looking more like a 6th man type for his career...

I have zero problems with his shot volume. I'd much prefer he take shots he feels like he can make at this stage, than be in his head about what's a good shot or bad shot. Does his best shot diet mirror someone like DDR? Yeah, probably at this stage. He's being asked to create shots off the dribble, which is nearly impossible in the NBA. I feel like he's trying to rely on contact for FT attempts a little too much...it's slowing him down. He looks his best when he just is decisive with the ball and what he wants to do.

This many years in, you'd think things would be clicking into place...but gotta remember he's only 22. That's 2 years younger than Knecht and 5 years younger than Reaves.

I have to say, he's been much better defensively this year...although tonight was probably his worst defensive game yet despite the 4 steals. That's encouraging.
---------
This was one of those, "...can't end fast enough" type games where even with the Fakers not being able to buy a shot, it still felt like an 11-15 point lead wasn't safe.

I thought Splitter's rotation stayed small ball a little bit too long in the 3rd quarter. I didn't love that Wesley/Murray/Love trio all out on the floor at the same time for so long. It would be sooooo nice to have one of those players be able to hit a 3pt shot. I almost think Reath would be a better option than Yang for that reason if the goal is to win games and maintain against other benches in those backup minutes.

What can I say about Jrue...it's so nice to have an actual offensive playmaker on the floor that can also hit a shot. I can't really remember the last good player like that the Blazers have had. Lillard certainly is a heady scorer, but he's not a natural playmaking engine for others. I guess Roy had a little bit of that in him...

I liked what I saw out of Clingan tonight, especially around the rim. 10+/10+ and 2 blocks games like this should really be his baseline. Still needs to get stronger as a rebounder and more decisive offensively.

Reaves suuuuuuuuure has figured out how to game the refs to get to the FT line. Kudos to him. Reminds me of Harden a few seasons ago. With his outside shooting Fakers seem set at one of their guard spots.

I really thought Knecht would end up a slightly better player than what he is. Glad the Blazers dodged that one.

My main takeaway from tonight? I'M SO DAMNED GLAD AYTON IS NO LONGER ON THE BLAZERS. That guy does not have the between the ears stuff to make a mark with a winning team.

[monopoman]

I'll say it again...I'm not all that worried about Sharpe. But a lot of that is because I've never really bought into the idea that he's going to be a #1 option on a good team. Right now he's looking more like a 6th man type for his career...

I have zero problems with his shot volume. I'd much prefer he take shots he feels like he can make at this stage, than be in his head about what's a good shot or bad shot. Does his best shot diet mirror someone like DDR? Yeah, probably at this stage. He's being asked to create shots off the dribble, which is nearly impossible in the NBA. I feel like he's trying to rely on contact for FT attempts a little too much...it's slowing him down. He looks his best when he just is decisive with the ball and what he wants to do.

This many years in, you'd think things would be clicking into place...but gotta remember he's only 22. That's 2 years younger than Knecht and 5 years younger than Reaves.

I have to say, he's been much better defensively this year...although tonight was probably his worst defensive game yet despite the 4 steals. That's encouraging.
---------
This was one of those, "...can't end fast enough" type games where even with the Fakers not being able to buy a shot, it still felt like an 11-15 point lead wasn't safe.

I thought Splitter's rotation stayed small ball a little bit too long in the 3rd quarter. I didn't love that Wesley/Murray/Love trio all out on the floor at the same time for so long. It would be sooooo nice to have one of those players be able to hit a 3pt shot. I almost think Reath would be a better option than Yang for that reason if the goal is to win games and maintain against other benches in those backup minutes.

What can I say about Jrue...it's so nice to have an actual offensive playmaker on the floor that can also hit a shot. I can't really remember the last good player like that the Blazers have had. Lillard certainly is a heady scorer, but he's not a natural playmaking engine for others. I guess Roy had a little bit of that in him...

I liked what I saw out of Clingan tonight, especially around the rim. 10+/10+ and 2 blocks games like this should really be his baseline. Still needs to get stronger as a rebounder and more decisive offensively.

Reaves suuuuuuuuure has figured out how to game the refs to get to the FT line. Kudos to him. Reminds me of Harden a few seasons ago. With his outside shooting Fakers seem set at one of their guard spots.

I really thought Knecht would end up a slightly better player than what he is. Glad the Blazers dodged that one.

My main takeaway from tonight? I'M SO DAMNED GLAD AYTON IS NO LONGER ON THE BLAZERS. That guy does not have the between the ears stuff to make a mark with a winning team.

I mean if you look at his stats compared to other guys that entered the league this young like say Tatum they are very similar or in some cases slightly better.

We are nowhere near sure what a prime Sharpe will look like, but him being a bit cold from 3 is not some big indictment. He also was one of the most effective in the NBA last season when scoring around the rim, and part of that was some iso in there.

[Wizenheimer]

Ok, I am curious

if you're curious about my post, I was curious about BC's good luck babe for this game. Check the spoilers

[dckingsfan]

I'm a lot more comfortable when Clingan is in the game. He's only played 24 minutes tonight, so why can't he finish?

I mean Clingan has been a monster. We are the 6th rated defense and he has been a big part of that. There must be a reason that Splitter is playing him the minutes he is playing him.

I fully buy into the notion that Splitter will help Clingan develop.

[BlazersBroncos]

I suppose if a EC is offered you have to move Grant but I am all in on getting a playoff spot so we can convey that FRP to CHI. To me that is the most important end goal of this season. The implications owing that pick could have on that future MIL FRP is abhorrent. We need to convey ASAP.

[JRoy]

I'm a lot more comfortable when Clingan is in the game. He's only played 24 minutes tonight, so why can't he finish?

I mean Clingan has been a monster. We are the 6th rated defense and he has been a big part of that. There must be a reason that Splitter is playing him the minutes he is playing him.

I fully buy into the notion that Splitter will help Clingan develop.

Clingan has been very solid. Playing within himself on both ends and avoiding foul trouble. Very promising.

[Blazinaway]

I'm a lot more comfortable when Clingan is in the game. He's only played 24 minutes tonight, so why can't he finish?

I mean Clingan has been a monster. We are the 6th rated defense and he has been a big part of that. There must be a reason that Splitter is playing him the minutes he is playing him.

I fully buy into the notion that Splitter will help Clingan develop.

Clingan has been very solid. Playing within himself on both ends and avoiding foul trouble. Very promising.

For a 21-yr old center just starting his 2nd yr he is playing great ball

[Wizenheimer]

I'll say it again...I'm not all that worried about Sharpe. But a lot of that is because I've never really bought into the idea that he's going to be a #1 option on a good team. Right now he's looking more like a 6th man type for his career...

I have zero problems with his shot volume. I'd much prefer he take shots he feels like he can make at this stage, than be in his head about what's a good shot or bad shot. Does his best shot diet mirror someone like DDR? Yeah, probably at this stage. He's being asked to create shots off the dribble, which is nearly impossible in the NBA. I feel like he's trying to rely on contact for FT attempts a little too much...it's slowing him down. He looks his best when he just is decisive with the ball and what he wants to do.

This many years in, you'd think things would be clicking into place...but gotta remember he's only 22. That's 2 years younger than Knecht and 5 years younger than Reaves.

I have to say, he's been much better defensively this year...although tonight was probably his worst defensive game yet despite the 4 steals. That's encouraging.
---------
This was one of those, "...can't end fast enough" type games where even with the Fakers not being able to buy a shot, it still felt like an 11-15 point lead wasn't safe.

I thought Splitter's rotation stayed small ball a little bit too long in the 3rd quarter. I didn't love that Wesley/Murray/Love trio all out on the floor at the same time for so long. It would be sooooo nice to have one of those players be able to hit a 3pt shot. I almost think Reath would be a better option than Yang for that reason if the goal is to win games and maintain against other benches in those backup minutes.

What can I say about Jrue...it's so nice to have an actual offensive playmaker on the floor that can also hit a shot. I can't really remember the last good player like that the Blazers have had. Lillard certainly is a heady scorer, but he's not a natural playmaking engine for others. I guess Roy had a little bit of that in him...

I liked what I saw out of Clingan tonight, especially around the rim. 10+/10+ and 2 blocks games like this should really be his baseline. Still needs to get stronger as a rebounder and more decisive offensively.

Reaves suuuuuuuuure has figured out how to game the refs to get to the FT line. Kudos to him. Reminds me of Harden a few seasons ago. With his outside shooting Fakers seem set at one of their guard spots.

I really thought Knecht would end up a slightly better player than what he is. Glad the Blazers dodged that one.

My main takeaway from tonight? I'M SO DAMNED GLAD AYTON IS NO LONGER ON THE BLAZERS. That guy does not have the between the ears stuff to make a mark with a winning team.

I mean if you look at his stats compared to other guys that entered the league this young like say Tatum they are very similar or in some cases slightly better.

We are nowhere near sure what a prime Sharpe will look like, but him being a bit cold from 3 is not some big indictment. He also was one of the most effective in the NBA last season when scoring around the rim, and part of that was some iso in there.

not by the 4th season

* Tatum averaged 26.4pts, 7.4reb, 4.3 ast, while shooting 39% on three's with a .576 TS% and a 21.3 PER

* Devin Booker averaged 26.6 - 4.1 - 6.8 ast. He did only shoot 32.6% on three's, but that was the worst mark of his career and he was acting as the team's PG. A .584 TS% and a PER of 20.2

Anthony Edwards was similar; Jalen Williams was in the same draft class as Sharpe and is much better (but is 2 years older). Jaylen Brown was pretty good but a year older; Donovan Mitchell was an all-star in his 3rd season and a two-time AS in his 4th, but a couple of years older

Zach LaVine wasn't good in his 4th season. I'm sure I could find other examples of 4th year guys playing poorly. If Zach LaVine is Sharpe's ceiling that would be a little disappointing, but he is a 2-time all-star and averaged 27-5-5 one season. So, for 23M/year that would not be disappointing, I guess

the problem with all this, right now, is that Sharpe's numbers are terrible:

FG - 30.7%
3ptFG - 16.7%
2ptFG - 40.0%
assist/turnover - .465
PER - 5.4
TS - 40.8%
winshare/48 - (-0.137)
BPM - -11.6 (on a team with a net rating of +5.4)

hard to imagine worse numbers (unless your memory includes Nolan Smith). Last season, he shot 75.5% at the rim; this season he's shooting 46.7%.....geeeeezuzzz

obviously he's out of sync, big-time, for some reason. Probably a variety of reasons; and he's likely pressing hard because of his new deal. Again, I think he needs to delete the three-ball from his bag of tricks until he rights the ship. Refuse to chuck and get hooplock on his dribble-drive

[dckingsfan]

I mean Clingan has been a monster. We are the 6th rated defense and he has been a big part of that. There must be a reason that Splitter is playing him the minutes he is playing him.

I fully buy into the notion that Splitter will help Clingan develop.

Clingan has been very solid. Playing within himself on both ends and avoiding foul trouble. Very promising.

For a 21-yr old center just starting his 2nd yr he is playing great ball

It is kind of a weird start to the season in some respects and expected in others.

The Blazers are the 6th rated defense - I thought a top 10 would be very nice. Predictable but even better if you will. Jrue is just a good bball player. Deni has been solid with his "usual" slow start but this one isn't bad.

Grant has played really well. So has Thybulle. Now can they stay healthy? Camara has been the biggest puzzle thus far (for me).

[mighty_duck]

Zach LaVine wasn't good in his 4th season. I'm sure I could find other examples of 4th year guys playing poorly. If Zach LaVine is Sharpe's ceiling that would be a little disappointing, but he is a 2-time all-star and averaged 27-5-5 one season. So, for 23M/year that would not be disappointing, I guess

Not very encouraging comps

LaVine's 4th season was him coming back from a long injury in January, and lasting all of 24 games before being shut down again.
Sharpe dealt with an injury in his 2nd season, so maybe we can give him some slack there.

It's really early, so I still have reasonable hope he can turn things around this season.

Probably a variety of reasons; and he's likely pressing hard because of his new deal.

I was hoping his deal would have the opposite effect. He doesn't need to prove himself this year to get a new contract. In fact, he's set for 4 years.
No need to jack up shots you can't make!

[Walton1one]

I suppose if a EC is offered you have to move Grant but I am all in on getting a playoff spot so we can convey that FRP to CHI. To me that is the most important end goal of this season. The implications owing that pick could have on that future MIL FRP is abhorrent. We need to convey ASAP.

I think that would be a mistake. Trying to make the playoffs and giving up a chance at one of the players in the next draft particularly. This is so on brand for Portland, forgoing a chance at greatness to chase mediocrity....

The 27' draft is looking to be the exact opposite (very weak) of the 26' draft & the 26' draft is viewed generally to be stronger than 25' & 25' already looks like it is going to produce more big time players than just Flagg\Harper. Edgecombe, Coward, Johnson, Knueppel, probably Bailey. If only POR could have gotten a Top 5 pick, ah well...

They could always parley that ORL 28' pick (and other assets if necessary) to get out of that obligation to CHI in 28' if need be.

This team needs a star player to go with their young core, which they do not have, and banking on 36yr old Lillard to fill that hole is extremely short sighted

Read on Twitter

[dckingsfan]

I suppose if a EC is offered you have to move Grant but I am all in on getting a playoff spot so we can convey that FRP to CHI. To me that is the most important end goal of this season. The implications owing that pick could have on that future MIL FRP is abhorrent. We need to convey ASAP.

I think that would be a mistake. Trying to make the playoffs and giving up a chance at one of the players in the next draft particularly. This is so on brand for Portland, forgoing a chance at greatness to chase mediocrity....

The 27' draft is looking to be the exact opposite (very weak) of the 26' draft & the 26' draft is viewed generally to be stronger than 25' & 25' already looks like it is going to produce more big time players than just Flagg\Harper. Edgecombe, Coward, Johnson, Knueppel, probably Bailey.

They could always parley that ORL 28' pick (and other assets if necessary) to get out of that obligation to CHI in 28' if need be.

This team needs a star player to go with their young core, which they do not have, and banking on 36yr old Lillard to fill that hole is extremely short sighted.

I am also of this mindset. Get into the play-in this year but don't make the playoffs. If you don't make the play-in, all good as well.

Get the pick, get a small ball PF, let Clingan, Yang, Wesley and Sharpe take their games to the next level. Let Jrue and Dame do their thing next year on split time.

Lose the pick in '27.

One other nit - this year's draft looks to be deeper than just the players mentioned above. I think next year's draft will not only be stronger at the top but also in terms of depth through the 2nd round.

[BlazersBroncos]

I suppose if a EC is offered you have to move Grant but I am all in on getting a playoff spot so we can convey that FRP to CHI. To me that is the most important end goal of this season. The implications owing that pick could have on that future MIL FRP is abhorrent. We need to convey ASAP.

I think that would be a mistake. Trying to make the playoffs and giving up a chance at one of the players in the next draft particularly. This is so on brand for Portland, forgoing a chance at greatness to chase mediocrity....

The 27' draft is looking to be the exact opposite (very weak) of the 26' draft & the 26' draft is viewed generally to be stronger than 25' & 25' already looks like it is going to produce more big time players than just Flagg\Harper. Edgecombe, Coward, Johnson, Knueppel, probably Bailey. If only POR could have gotten a Top 5 pick, ah well...

They could always parley that ORL 28' pick (and other assets if necessary) to get out of that obligation to CHI in 28' if need be.

This team needs a star player to go with their young core, which they do not have, and banking on 36yr old Lillard to fill that hole is extremely short sighted

Read on Twitter

I like betting on my team. I would rather ensure we have 100% control over the MIL FRP / Swaps that are all unprotected (Which is only possible if we convey the pick to CHI) with the assumption, a decent one at that, that MIL is going to stink monumentally once Giannis inevitably is traded than hope this team, which isnt nearly a bottom feeder, lands a 8-14 pick in this draft.

I also have more value on the ORL 28 FRP UNP than the Blazers FRP this year. That team isnt going to stay together long, it will become too expensive and only a ECF trip will keep it together (If that). Part of this assessment also is that this PDX team is decent and at best (worst?) will end up in the 10th pick range (And even that will only happen if we catch one hell of an injury bug IMO). ORL has started 1-3, will be paying its Top-5 180M+ going into the 27/28 season and doesnt seem to have a real identity IMO. I would bet money on that team not amounting to much, but thats just a gut feeling. To me that pick is gold.

[PDXKnight]

Get out for what though? Damian Lillard is coming back next year and if we want to try and make a run with him, we'd be better off with Grant than some future 1st and an expiring which will probably be a POS player.

What kind of run exactly? A first round loss? Is that tremendous progress?

This underlying narrative that Lillard, at age 36 & coming off an Achilles injury is going to save POR and turn them into a contender next year is fiction. He couldn’t elevate MIL when he was playing with Giannis (who is worth 2-3 of POR players), a top 20 player of all time?

And I agree, Grant is not a winner

This team has enough talent to get out of the 1st. Especially with Dame being exactly the kind of player this team needs. He'd address our weakness perfectly.

I'd rather see how far we can get with Dame's last horrah than get another Kris Murray.

Grant isnt gonna be the difference between a deep run and a first round exit.

[monopoman]

I suppose if a EC is offered you have to move Grant but I am all in on getting a playoff spot so we can convey that FRP to CHI. To me that is the most important end goal of this season. The implications owing that pick could have on that future MIL FRP is abhorrent. We need to convey ASAP.

I think that would be a mistake. Trying to make the playoffs and giving up a chance at one of the players in the next draft particularly. This is so on brand for Portland, forgoing a chance at greatness to chase mediocrity....

The 27' draft is looking to be the exact opposite (very weak) of the 26' draft & the 26' draft is viewed generally to be stronger than 25' & 25' already looks like it is going to produce more big time players than just Flagg\Harper. Edgecombe, Coward, Johnson, Knueppel, probably Bailey. If only POR could have gotten a Top 5 pick, ah well...

They could always parley that ORL 28' pick (and other assets if necessary) to get out of that obligation to CHI in 28' if need be.

This team needs a star player to go with their young core, which they do not have, and banking on 36yr old Lillard to fill that hole is extremely short sighted

Read on Twitter

I like betting on my team. I would rather ensure we have 100% control over the MIL FRP / Swaps that are all unprotected (Which is only possible if we convey the pick to CHI) with the assumption, a decent one at that, that MIL is going to stink monumentally once Giannis inevitably is traded than hope this team, which isnt nearly a bottom feeder, lands a 8-14 pick in this draft.

I also have more value on the ORL 28 FRP UNP than the Blazers FRP this year. That team isnt going to stay together long, it will become too expensive and only a ECF trip will keep it together (If that). Part of this assessment also is that this PDX team is decent and at best (worst?) will end up in the 10th pick range (And even that will only happen if we catch one hell of an injury bug IMO). ORL has started 1-3, will be paying its Top-5 180M+ going into the 27/28 season and doesnt seem to have a real identity IMO. I would bet money on that team not amounting to much, but thats just a gut feeling. To me that pick is gold.

It's also about time we made the playoffs to really start to show that this team is progressing, overall the team has looked better compared to last season so no reason they can't have a real shot at the playoffs.

Sure having one more top draft pick would be nice, but I have a hard time imaging this team ending up there unless some major problems develop throughout the season. They are 2-2 despite only playing against likely playoff teams so far, which is typically above average play, sure the Lakers were missing guys but still they took care of business.

[Wizenheimer]

I like betting on my team. I would rather ensure we have 100% control over the MIL FRP / Swaps that are all unprotected (Which is only possible if we convey the pick to CHI) with the assumption, a decent one at that, that MIL is going to stink monumentally once Giannis inevitably is traded than hope this team, which isnt nearly a bottom feeder, lands a 8-14 pick in this draft.

I also have more value on the ORL 28 FRP UNP than the Blazers FRP this year. That team isnt going to stay together long, it will become too expensive and only a ECF trip will keep it together (If that). Part of this assessment also is that this PDX team is decent and at best (worst?) will end up in the 10th pick range (And even that will only happen if we catch one hell of an injury bug IMO). ORL has started 1-3, will be paying its Top-5 180M+ going into the 27/28 season and doesnt seem to have a real identity IMO. I would bet money on that team not amounting to much, but thats just a gut feeling. To me that pick is gold.

that might be a bit too optimistic....or a bit too pessimistic about Orlando. All of their top players are signed thru 2028, or later: Banchero, Wagner, Bane, Suggs, Carter Jr., Issac, Da Silva. The roster is expensive but doesn't cross the 2nd apron in the next 3 seasons

they are also slow starters...they were 3-6 last season and 5-6 the year before. AND, they are playing in the East....meaning their pick is unlikely to drop into the lottery. It's probably more likely to be 20 or lower than 14 or higher

as for the Blazer 2028 pick, sure, there's a bit of concern. It may be overblown concern though. If the Blazers are still in the lottery in 2028, they'll likely be at the back end. If that pick hasn't conveyed yet, it may be a case of Portland swapping a 14th pick for a 7th pick

[zzaj]

Get out for what though? Damian Lillard is coming back next year and if we want to try and make a run with him, we'd be better off with Grant than some future 1st and an expiring which will probably be a POS player.

What kind of run exactly? A first round loss? Is that tremendous progress?

This underlying narrative that Lillard, at age 36 & coming off an Achilles injury is going to save POR and turn them into a contender next year is fiction. He couldn’t elevate MIL when he was playing with Giannis (who is worth 2-3 of POR players), a top 20 player of all time?

And I agree, Grant is not a winner

This team has enough talent to get out of the 1st. Especially with Dame being exactly the kind of player this team needs. He'd address our weakness perfectly.

I'd rather see how far we can get with Dame's last horrah than get another Kris Murray.

I get that fans are feel-goody about Lillard. And at his cost, he could be a high value player. But the other way to look at this is that Lillard could very well stick out like a sore thumb (in a bad way) when he returns:

1) The team has apparently committed to 'pace' and uptempo play. Given Splitter's work with Paris, it wouldn't surprise me to see that continue. Lillard has never shown to be comfortable in an uptempo offense. In fact, he's probably a big part of the reason why it was promised in Portland for years, and it never happened. He's a purely halfcourt player, and that's not going to change.

2) The team has committed to defense...to the point that other coaches are remarking on it. Lillard in his prime was a terrible defender, and that's not going to get better at age 36 coming off a year long achilles rehab. If the starting lineup for the Blazers next year is Lillard/Jrue/Camara/Deni/Clingan, Lillard is going to be hunted 11 times out of 10 by every team in the league.

About the only thing that Lillard offers that can help the team on the court is shooting, but even that is probably overstated. He's a career 37% 3pt shooter and requires big volume. He's around 50% from 2 for his career which is fine. IIRC, his last year in Portland he played off-ball more and it wasn't as beautiful as we all thought it would be. He's clearly a rhythm shooter, that excels with having the ball in his hands to hit shots.

Lillard is GREAT in the PnR...except that he has no PnR partner any more. Clingan? Yang? I guess maybe his old pal Grant?

Lillard is GREAT at getting to the FT line...is he going to have the explosiveness to do that at the same level?

...and this is all assuming Lillard comes back at close to 100% of what he was prior to his injury. If he comes back at 75%, I'd argue that you probably are looking at having a higher BBIQ version of Anfernee Simons back on the team. One who is going to want to start, and doesn't fit the complexion of the Blazer identity at all...

[Wizenheimer]

I get that fans are feel-goody about Lillard. And at his cost, he could be a high value player. But the other way to look at this is that Lillard could very well stick out like a sore thumb (in a bad way) when he returns:

1) The team has apparently committed to 'pace' and uptempo play. Given Splitter's work with Paris, it wouldn't surprise me to see that continue. Lillard has never shown to be comfortable in an uptempo offense. In fact, he's probably a big part of the reason why it was promised in Portland for years, and it never happened. He's a purely halfcourt player, and that's not going to change.

2) The team has committed to defense...to the point that other coaches are remarking on it. Lillard in his prime was a terrible defender, and that's not going to get better at age 36 coming off a year long achilles rehab. If the starting lineup for the Blazers next year is Lillard/Jrue/Camara/Deni/Clingan, Lillard is going to be hunted 11 times out of 10 by every team in the league.

About the only thing that Lillard offers that can help the team on the court is shooting, but even that is probably overstated. He's a career 37% 3pt shooter and requires big volume. He's around 50% from 2 for his career which is fine. IIRC, his last year in Portland he played off-ball more and it wasn't as beautiful as we all thought it would be. He's clearly a rhythm shooter, that excels with having the ball in his hands to hit shots.

Lillard is GREAT in the PnR...except that he has no PnR partner any more. Clingan? Yang? I guess maybe his old pal Grant?

Lillard is GREAT at getting to the FT line...is he going to have the explosiveness to do that at the same level?

...and this is all assuming Lillard comes back at close to 100% of what he was prior to his injury. If he comes back at 75%, I'd argue that you probably are looking at having a higher BBIQ version of Anfernee Simons back on the team. One who is going to want to start, and doesn't fit the complexion of the Blazer identity at all...

a lot of assumptions. They may be solid assumptions but I'm not convinced

to start with, we all may want to wait till after the all-star break to gauge the value Pace to the Blazer roster. A lot of teams have started a season with high pace and dropped well off of their season beginning pace as their strengths have been scouted and the season wears on and rotations tighten. Blazer 5th in pace right now at 105.6, but I'd bet that drops, maybe by quite a bit once injuries start to take a toll, even minor injuries.

just for reference, in the 2017-18 season the Blazers were 13th with a pace of 100.7. That was over the entire season, after injuries and trades at the deadline. If you assume the current team's pace will drop, what it would mean is that this year's team would generate less than 1 possession a quarter more than a Dame-led team. Meaning you may be overrating the impact of pace

another assumption: Dame will hurt the defense. Probably, but how much of how little would it really be? In 2017-18 a Blazer team with Dame AND CJ as the starting back court ended up 8th in the NBA with a defensive rating of 106.4, Compare that to the current team def rating of 5th with a def rating of
105.6. In other words a team with Dame & CJ as 36 min/game starters had a defense that was only 0.8 points worse than the current team. But that was before Olshey decided to gut team defense in favor of keeping his undersized back court

I get that Dame will be coming off a major injury and 36 years old. But as a Blazer he never played with a defensive roster like the current one or a defensive C like Clingan. And all of the current team's numbers are of a 4 game sample size. Their defense is going to get scouted; their transition offense will get scouted. Teams will adjust, especially after they see the Blazers for the first time

I have always been a big Dame fan but I wasn't giddy about re-signing him like a lot of Blazer fans were. There were things not to like about it. But, if he can return to 80-85% of what he was, what he will do is make the Blazer half-court offense better, and that is a weakness, at least it was last season. At the same time I don't think he's disadvantage the pace or the defense as much as people assume