pepe1991 wrote:eyriq wrote:Idiosyncratic wrote:
Not Ingles himself. But the bench carried us in 23/24, that is a fact. The young core got too much credit for that season. Franz has always been the one starter rating out highly. Then we went in on a non superstar player knowing that, just because the East is weak and maybe we can hope West team is hurt in finals if we get there? I was trying to cope with Bane trade, but it just doesn't feel that great.
And I still think we can be fine this year, but just thinking bigger picture, not sure we are better off.
We had 7 players who finished with positive net points (pushing us above .500 as zero net points is .500). Let's group them by "Starter" vs. "Bench" (based on their primary role that season).
Starter vs. Bench: Net Points Credit
Positive-Rated Starters
Franz Wagner: +92
Wendell Carter Jr.: +32
Jalen Suggs: +18
STARTER TOTAL: +142
Positive-Rated Bench
Jonathan Isaac: +76
Moe Wagner: +65
Goga Bitadze: +35
Joe Ingles: +3
BENCH TOTAL: +179
I see where you're coming from, but I think that "bench carried us" narrative is the wrong way to look at it.
The team's total net points was +158, but it came from +291 Defense canceling out a -73 Offense. That elite defensive identity is set by the core.
Franz (+92): You're right, he's the proven two-way star (+46 Off / +46 Def).
Suggs (+18): This is a win. It confirms he's an All-Defense specialist (+36 Def) who is also a net positive. That's a perfect core piece.
Paolo (-4): This is the "cost" of a 21-yr-old All-Star carrying our entire offense (-34 Off). The real story is his +30 Defense rating. He bought in instead of coasting.
We won 47 games while our offense was awful and our #1 option was still developing. That 47-win season should be our FLOOR, not our ceiling.
The Bane trade just fixed our single biggest problem (that -73 offense). We're building on a proven foundation.
Actual plus minus 2023-24:
best playersFranz Wagner +204
Isaac +182
Joe Ingles +165
Cole Anthony +110
M. Wagner +93
worst playersOKeke - 77
Black - 33
Banchero +1
Fultz +13
Middle of a road: :Suggs ( +45) , Carter (+91)
Impact swing between that Version of Isaac and Joe Ingles, to one Banchero ( 181, 164 points ) is similar impact swing from same season between Steph Curry and Jerome Robinson
3 of best Magic lineups for that year, minimum 70 min , all exclude: Banchero, Carter and Suggs, all include: Isaac ( declined); Ingles (gone), Mortiz ( out for very long time, with serious injury for big guy )
What's even more problematic is to see lineups with your favorite buzzword: Wing hub. Only 1 lineup with Banchero and Franz even had below offensive rating (113,3, still would be considered top 10 worst in nba if translated to a team).
In mist of all this, most important part is how castrated offense always was without Ingles- Moe punch, and how dependent team always was on playoff-level- effort on defense to even collect 47 wins. All on backs of sub .500.
Most used lineups
are net positive, especially first one, with G. Harris but once again, offensive rating on both lineups is so damn terrible and defensive effort/level simply isn't sustainable for multiple seasons with declining key players on defense, mainly Isaac, later KCP, and guys like G. Harris.
What Weltman did was very naive and superficial way of thinking, and simply being simple minded basketball mind. He overvalued "young core" that never, aside from Franz was all that important for soul season success. You know.... one of two in a decade he even had.
Banchero continues to be one of biggest black holes NBA has, and now he makes max money. It's laughable to even elaborate how hard is to win with player who is this bad:
So much negative impact is so hard to find in nba, let alone on max deal. Even Lavine isn't this bad.
I find Scottie Barnes one of most overrated nba max contracts, but even he is way more "green" than Banchero
Barnes on-off for career
At the end of a day you are only as good as your best player(s). With so much data to collect post mirage of 23-24 ( Pistons- 25-26 type season, where team played above it's head due energy, like Pistons demonstrated tonight ), all i can conclude is that it's
near impossible to win on consistent bases with player who eats 30% of usage rate, 25% of cap space and needs whole offense to be defer to him, and yet his impact is this:
Bottom line, either team needs to get actual point guard and give that next star 25-30% usage rate and make Banchero what he is, sporadic focal point of offense, but limit his usage to some 12-13 shots a night, or trade Suggs/Bane /Carter /Black, whatever assets they have left to find very specific center to go along Banchero. Tbh that guy doesn't even exist in real world, but whatever. Some rim running, 3 point shooting, shotblocking role player. Good luck with that.
Current roster, with "wing hub" BS, plays copy past- same as that failed all-6'8 - Raptors team played, and even current "tank hub" Ingram- Barnes play. Having two forwards pretending to be PGs, offense doesn't work, rest of a team is uncomfortable, they play fast but are too big /slow for good transition defense, in same time in half court they still lack serious defensive pressure on ball, and at rim Barnes /Ingram ( Franz/ Paolo) won't offer much resistance. Unrealistic expectation from Cs to defend rim when angles of attack are impossible to defend etc.
As current final result, both teams are 1-4. I predicted Raptors to suck with one of dumbest roster constructions in years.
Silly me, should have seen so many drawing similarities.
1. The Unstoppable Force: Victor Wembanyama
2. The Big Surprise: Cedric Coward
3. The "Heat Culture" Leap: Jaime Jaquez Jr.
4. The Offensive Engines & Superstars