Raps in 4 wrote:Raptors_Dynasty wrote:If we win, how likely will we be a top team for the next few years? I know we have Vladdy locked up, but Bichette might walk? What about the rest of the core?
We're an extremely old team, so not likely. Springer, Gausman, Bassitt, and Berrios are all in their mid-30s. Scherzer is 41 and only signed for this year anyway. We also relied heavily on scrubs like Clement and Lukes catching fire this year to get us this far. It's extremely unlikely they repeat their success next year.
Then, like you said, Bo is a FA in the off-season and he's our second most productive under-30 player.
If we re-sign Bichette, I can see us being competitve again next season as maybe a wild card team (you can expect regression from all or most of the players I named above). If Bichette leaves and we don't find a 4-5 WAR bat to replace him in free agency, we're probably looking at a 2-3 year retool to get back to contention. However, even if we re-sign Bichette, we're still looking at a retool very soon due to how old our pitching staff is, and us having a pretty understocked minor league system.
 
I think that's a fair post, but I'll push back on a couple of things:
- Definitely don't think Ernie's a scrub. That's two strong years in a row for him now, and while his playoff hitting is unsustainable, his approach at the plate is great and his elite defense isn't going anywhere. Lukes too seems like a solid 4th OF. I know neither guy is young, but sometimes guys breakout late, as we saw with Bautista/Encarnacion/Donaldson. 
- We do have several older players, but that's also a lot of cap room freed up once they're done, and as we've shown the will to spend coming off a non-playoff season, one has to figure we'll be throwing even more money around this off-season...this time with players likely more willing to listen to our calls.
The division will get even tougher next year as Yankees get back Cole, Boston probably makes a couple of adds and Bal/TB bounce back from unexpectedly bad seasons, but with Yesavage/Barger breakouts, Santander hopefully back in full strength and likely significant free agent additions, we should be right there battling for the division again.