Roster is a mess - missed draft picks are part of reason

[CPT]

So I keep seeing that the Spurs are just lucky and they could have ended up with Scoot or Miller, etc, etc.

It’s not so much that the Spurs are geniuses for tanking and winning the lotto. They made their own luck, but it could have been bad luck. That’s all fine.

But that doesn’t mean Wemby just goes away. If Wemby is on Charlotte, Portland, Washington, Houston, etc, chances are they get another one or two interesting young players over the next two drafts and we’re talking about that team as the success story instead.

I think the Spurs might be getting a bit too much credit here, but the general idea of tanking (particularly if done by competent management) is not getting enough.

That’s a horrible argument, because tanking more often than not results in more tanking.

If the Spurs get Scoot / Holland / Demin the last 3 years, are they a success? Is there any guarantee they get a stud in the next 3 years in that alternate reality?

Fact of the matter - they got lucky. Not taking anything away from them because every contender gets lucky in some fashion. But they easily could have been the Hornets, or Wizards, or Jazz, or Kings, or Nets, or Pelican, who have tanked and rebuilt time and time again for a decade outside small blips of some decent play.

It’s not even me being anti-tank, but you gotta be realistic about these things. Tanking is a strategy that is incredibly luck based. You gotta be lucky to hit in the lottery; then lucky again that you move up in a year with prospects worth moving up for.

The Spurs had a 5% chance of moving up how they did. That’s incredibly low and if they did not get Wemby, they’re still in the lottery today because outside Wemby they don’t have any surefire studs.

Sure, but there would probably still be one "genius" tanking team. We'll get crazy outliers like Dallas (and this whole last draft, really), but most of the time, the teams who tank will get higher picks. Higher picks have a higher percentage of hitting, and that is where good management comes in to meet the luck.

The point isn't that the Raptors could have been the Spurs if they tried harder. They could have had a better shot, but there would be no guarantees.

The point is we're pretty clearly in a similar or worse position than most of these perennial lottery teams. In many cases it's different flavours of bad, but it's still bad. I wouldn't bet the house on us making the second round before Charlotte, Washington, Utah, Portland, etc. Would you?

Meanwhile, the teams who have done it well (OKC, Houston, SAS) have moved on to contention mode.

The old expression is you're selling wins or selling hope. The Raptors haven't sold either one in years.

[Pointgod]

Do you honestly in good faith think this team has a conceivable path way to compete and actually be a threat in the playoffs?...Making the play ins or the 8th seed to get demolished by the first seed is not competing either....Im talking about being a legit threat to win....If so i think you will be disappointed.

To Consarnits point we moved off the Siakam era level of mid teams to another mid level era team with Ingram...Your points would be valid if Barnes was a top player or had top player in the league potential but i don't think that is the case here....Spurs at least pivoted while we are staying in the same direction hoping things change.

Here’s the thing. These guys will point to the Pacers and Heat as teams that didn’t need to tank, not acknowledging that Miami is a free agent destination with one of the best coaches in the league and the Pacers traded away starters for picks and traded for Siakam as their final piece after they’d gone through their rebuild and they were already competitive. It’s just deflection.

Is there a FA that Miami has secured over the years? We traded our starters for younger starters and kept our pick, Indy run lasted a yr and they couldn't keep up with their financial commitments. It's not a given that core would've returned, even with a healthy Hali.

IQ and prospect + picks gets us a disgruntled star in the near future is a guess
Jakob + picks may get us a different 5

Jimmy Butler….you know the guy that led them to two finals? And you’re severely underestimating how much value we’d have to give up to move Quickley and Poeltl’s contracts. Right now these guys are negative contracts, which means we’d have to attach picks just to get back an average player on a better contract.

[Pointgod]

Roster is a mess. Missed draft picks are part of it. Also obviously the OG trade...now we paying a mediocre shooting guard masquerading as a PG for 32.5M....he's prolly worth only 15-20M at best in the open market right now.

I get it, no one hits on all their picks, even teams like Spurs, OKC miss on them a lot, or don't fit. but they somehow find picks that works out.

For raps, we don't have any blue chip prospects

2023 Gradey Dick - a guy who's really weak on defense, and misses his shots, for a supposed 3-pt shooters
Notable misses: Keyonte George, Brandin, Jamier

2024 - Jakobe Watler and Jonathan Mogbo - both badly struggling this year
Missed picks - Jaylen Wells, Missi, Kyshawn George

2025 - CMB - solid pick, but we need homeruns.
Cedric Coward...debatable he could work out here....but it shows how much we missed picks....


In summary, roster is a mess.
an overpaid 32.5M IQ, too much mediocre flawed guards who can't reliably shoot....team is a mess!!

45M to a guy who's really a role player

I want to go back to this. Players like Keyonte George were dismissed by other posters but I have looked it up and saw Keyonte is averaging 22, 9 and 4 starting with the Jazz. Sure it’s still a small sample size and his shooting still sucks but he’s a positive offense player so far. Jasquez is also averaging 19,7,5 on 69% TS. Still early days so Dick could improve as well but funny how so many Raptors fans are dismissive of certain players just because we didn’t draft them.

[TheGeneral99]

2021 - Flynn was a bad pick but he was a 29th pick which are usually not productive players - I'll give it a D+
2022 - Barnes was a great pick - I'll give it an A
2024 - Dick is still young but seems like a "meh" pick - I'll give it a C
2025 - Walters still young, but doesn't seem like a great pick - I'll give it a D+.
2026 - CMB, looks good so far - so far it's a B.

Average grade over the past few years is a C-...so not horrible but very mediocore.

[anotherhomer]

Roster is a mess. Missed draft picks are part of it. Also obviously the OG trade...now we paying a mediocre shooting guard masquerading as a PG for 32.5M....he's prolly worth only 15-20M at best in the open market right now.

I get it, no one hits on all their picks, even teams like Spurs, OKC miss on them a lot, or don't fit. but they somehow find picks that works out.

For raps, we don't have any blue chip prospects

2023 Gradey Dick - a guy who's really weak on defense, and misses his shots, for a supposed 3-pt shooters
Notable misses: Keyonte George, Brandin, Jamier

2024 - Jakobe Watler and Jonathan Mogbo - both badly struggling this year
Missed picks - Jaylen Wells, Missi, Kyshawn George

2025 - CMB - solid pick, but we need homeruns.
Cedric Coward...debatable he could work out here....but it shows how much we missed picks....


In summary, roster is a mess.
an overpaid 32.5M IQ, too much mediocre flawed guards who can't reliably shoot....team is a mess!!

45M to a guy who's really a role player

I want to go back to this. Players like Keyonte George were dismissed by other posters but I have looked it up and saw Keyonte is averaging 22, 9 and 4 starting with the Jazz. Sure it’s still a small sample size and his shooting still sucks but he’s a positive offense player so far. Jasquez is also averaging 19,7,5 on 69% TS. Still early days so Dick could improve as well but funny how so many Raptors fans are dismissive of certain players just because we didn’t draft them.

that's true, Keyonte could had been the PG that raps needed, as with Kessler (in 2022 being the center)
i play devil's advocate and say, Keyone shoots poorly on a team with no shooting though
still, draft picks is a symptom of mistakes raps made last few years

- the obvious trading down in 2022, missing out on Nembhard and Kesler for a Center that hasn't worked out
- the belated trading for Jakob, missing out on studs like Dereck Lively, Cason Wallace, Bilal, or even one of the Thompson brothers
- also not trading FVV to Bucks for Grayson and unprotected FRP (rumour offer from bucks)
- passing on 2022#7 pick (Sharpe) + Hart for OG.
- OG trade to Knicks and subsequent IQ contract
- Mgobo over Jaylen Wells, Gradey Dick over Keyonte, Brandin or Jaquez

There are some moves that seem solid
- Barnes pick (even though, Giddey, Wagner, Algerun are guys that are surpassing Barnes), i wouldn't rate pick as homerun but solid
- CMB (even though Coward is flashing a lot of scoring potential), fills needs at 3/4/5
- Pascal Trade that led to BI <-- note, i like how this trade worked out because you get a real bucket getter and remove positional overlap between Barnes and Pascal, while BI is a few years younger)
- Shead pick

None of the moves are egregious, just so many didn't work out that Raps are kinda stuck in a 7/11.
Still, lots of good players, a bucket getter in BI, so there's still hope for Raps moving forward

[Badonkadonk]

After 7 games it looks like the offense has indeed been addressed to a significant degree, at least compared to recent years:

- Offensive Rating (PPP): 12th
- Defensive Rating: 27th

BI has been the biggest factor obviously, very efficient but more importantly, dangerous from anywhere in the half court and a safety valve we haven't had in recent years (bail-out play used to be a FVV three).

Scottie and RJ's efficiency + usage have also been anchors. Mamu actually scores from the 5, CMB has 10ppg now and is going to be hard to keep on the bench. The O is looking surprisingly decent.

They need to fix that D.

[DreamTeam09]

Here’s the thing. These guys will point to the Pacers and Heat as teams that didn’t need to tank, not acknowledging that Miami is a free agent destination with one of the best coaches in the league and the Pacers traded away starters for picks and traded for Siakam as their final piece after they’d gone through their rebuild and they were already competitive. It’s just deflection.

Is there a FA that Miami has secured over the years? We traded our starters for younger starters and kept our pick, Indy run lasted a yr and they couldn't keep up with their financial commitments. It's not a given that core would've returned, even with a healthy Hali.

IQ and prospect + picks gets us a disgruntled star in the near future is a guess
Jakob + picks may get us a different 5

Bron? Bosh? Butler? Was that a serious question, or are we setting some time limit in order to pretend they aren't a FA destination?*

The other thing about Indiana and Miami as examples of "building from the middle"...

Miami - Spoelstra
Indiana - Carlisle
Toronto - Darko

*I would accept the idea that no relevant player will ever be a free agent again, but that's a different discussion. Even then, we will see players push for Miami in free tradgency

Brin N Bosh were well over 2 decades ago, then you mentioned Jimmy Butler, so yeah that was a serious question asked. I guess I should've put recent years. I mean you can be scared and just automatically assume things will go everyone else's way and things not go our way, but Miami isn't this automatic given as you wanna make it out to be, they wanted to pair Jimmy with someone to point that Jimmy wore out his welcome, now they have Norma and Wiggins in place of Jimmy.
They could've traded for stars but didn't wanna pay the price, all you guys with this "only one way to emulate things" make little sense

[TorontoBarneys]

If tanking is an inherent risk that can result in more tanking, then spinning your wheels is also a risk that can offer a result of continuous mediocrity, not getting worse or better. Both methods carry obvious risks.

At least with tanking, you have some data on your hands about the percentage of acquiring lottery picks, which can be gamed to a certain extent by losing. There are no equivalent data points for soft-rebuild methods and so people give out nonsense arguments like "We just have to draft another Siakam/OG with late picks" as if that isn't the hardest thing ever to do.

I think what it really comes down to is that certain elements of the fanbase and Raptors brass just don't have the stomach for losing intentionally multiple years going, so whatever arguments are made against that are downstream of this feeling.

[anotherhomer]

If tanking is an inherent risk that can result in more tanking, then spinning your wheels is also a risk that can offer a result of continuous mediocrity, not getting worse or better. Both methods carry obvious risks.

At least with tanking, you have some data on your hands about the percentage of acquiring lottery picks, which can be gamed to a certain extent by losing. There are no equivalent data points for soft-rebuild methods and so people give out nonsense arguments like "We just have to draft another Siakam/OG with late picks" as if that isn't the hardest thing ever to do.

I think what it really comes down to is that certain elements of the fanbase and Raptors brass just don't have the stomach for losing intentionally multiple years going, so whatever arguments are made against that are downstream of this feeling.

i don't think FO could ever really bottom out.....
this is more or less the team for the next 4-5 years

barring a trade for another superstar (that's not Ja though)

[ItsDanger]

If you're rebuilding and getting a C grade over 5 year period, that's a disaster for the rebuild.

[TorontoBarneys]

If tanking is an inherent risk that can result in more tanking, then spinning your wheels is also a risk that can offer a result of continuous mediocrity, not getting worse or better. Both methods carry obvious risks.

At least with tanking, you have some data on your hands about the percentage of acquiring lottery picks, which can be gamed to a certain extent by losing. There are no equivalent data points for soft-rebuild methods and so people give out nonsense arguments like "We just have to draft another Siakam/OG with late picks" as if that isn't the hardest thing ever to do.

I think what it really comes down to is that certain elements of the fanbase and Raptors brass just don't have the stomach for losing intentionally multiple years going, so whatever arguments are made against that are downstream of this feeling.

i don't think FO could ever really bottom out.....
this is more or less the team for the next 4-5 years

barring a trade for another superstar (that's not Ja though)

I agree, we're looking at 30-45 win seasons for the foreseeable future. I'm personally not invested in any kind of tank effort anymore and hope we do win over losing this season, time to just be a casual fan. The greater NBA sucks now anyway with how easy it is to score and defenses being neutered by officiating.

[YogurtProducer]

Sure, but there would probably still be one "genius" tanking team. We'll get crazy outliers like Dallas (and this whole last draft, really), but most of the time, the teams who tank will get higher picks. Higher picks have a higher percentage of hitting, and that is where good management comes in to meet the luck.

When has this concept ever been argued?

The point isn't that the Raptors could have been the Spurs if they tried harder. They could have had a better shot, but there would be no guarantees.

That is actually exactly what posters in this very thread have argued.

The point is we're pretty clearly in a similar or worse position than most of these perennial lottery teams. In many cases it's different flavours of bad, but it's still bad. I wouldn't bet the house on us making the second round before Charlotte, Washington, Utah, Portland, etc. Would you?

I would, simply because it is certainly still not out of the realm of possibilities this team gel's and it happens this season.

Charlotte might be the next best bet, but Lamelo is already hurt... again

Portland to is solid, but there are solid because of trading for vets, as their tank (Scoot/Shaedon/Clingan) is very, very underwhelming.

Meanwhile, the teams who have done it well (OKC, Houston, SAS) have moved on to contention mode.

OKC got SGA before they even lost a single game in tank mode

HOU traded Harden for like 6 or 7 first rounders. We never had a guy like that we could reasonably cash out for that.

SAS moved up in 3 straight lotteries

The teams who have "done it well" are not exactly teams you can reasonably expect to re-create. Again, you are more likely going to end up being a team similar to current TOR, than current OKC, if you tank. Just the reality of it.

The old expression is you're selling wins or selling hope. The Raptors haven't sold either one in years.

I get it. Young players drafted high are shiny and fun. It is far from a guarantee however.

[YogurtProducer]

If tanking is an inherent risk that can result in more tanking, then spinning your wheels is also a risk that can offer a result of continuous mediocrity, not getting worse or better. Both methods carry obvious risks.

At least with tanking, you have some data on your hands about the percentage of acquiring lottery picks, which can be gamed to a certain extent by losing. There are no equivalent data points for soft-rebuild methods and so people give out nonsense arguments like "We just have to draft another Siakam/OG with late picks" as if that isn't the hardest thing ever to do.

I think what it really comes down to is that certain elements of the fanbase and Raptors brass just don't have the stomach for losing intentionally multiple years going, so whatever arguments are made against that are downstream of this feeling.

i don't think FO could ever really bottom out.....
this is more or less the team for the next 4-5 years

barring a trade for another superstar (that's not Ja though)

I agree, we're looking at 30-45 win seasons for the foreseeable future. I'm personally not invested in any kind of tank effort anymore and hope we do win over losing this season, time to just be a casual fan. The greater NBA sucks now anyway with how easy it is to score and defenses being neutered by officiating.

If we completely suck this year, I see them transitioning to a full scale rebuild. At the 25 game mark it we are like 8-17 I think it is done-zos for this core.

[deck]

The point isn't that the Raptors could have been the Spurs if they tried harder. They could have had a better shot, but there would be no guarantees.

The guarantees in these conversations are generally made in the reverse direction; that we have zero chance of contending without tanking. Which is a strange assertion given how we won in 2019.

[MiamiSPX]

I don't give them grief for the Flynn pick. They were coming off finishing 2nd overall with a legit chance, albeit small, of repeating. Plus with COVID, I don't give them a fail for perhaps not having spent as much time scouting this pick as maybe they should have. Where they do get a failing grade is keeping that stiff on the roster for almost the entirety of his rookie contract, given that it was evident very early on that he had no business being in the NBA.

[DreamTeam09]

2021 - Flynn was a bad pick but he was a 29th pick which are usually not productive players - I'll give it a D+
2022 - Barnes was a great pick - I'll give it an A
2024 - Dick is still young but seems like a "meh" pick - I'll give it a C
2025 - Walters still young, but doesn't seem like a great pick - I'll give it a D+.
2026 - CMB, looks good so far - so far it's a B.

Average grade over the past few years is a C-...so not horrible but very mediocore.

you can't do drafts like that, go look at the players after our selections that were selected. if you think Walters n GD were C n D+ look at some of the players drafter after them, if a lot of those players r worse then your C grade looks a lot better in a class if C- D's n Fs

[Pointgod]

Roster is a mess. Missed draft picks are part of it. Also obviously the OG trade...now we paying a mediocre shooting guard masquerading as a PG for 32.5M....he's prolly worth only 15-20M at best in the open market right now.

I get it, no one hits on all their picks, even teams like Spurs, OKC miss on them a lot, or don't fit. but they somehow find picks that works out.

For raps, we don't have any blue chip prospects

2023 Gradey Dick - a guy who's really weak on defense, and misses his shots, for a supposed 3-pt shooters
Notable misses: Keyonte George, Brandin, Jamier

2024 - Jakobe Watler and Jonathan Mogbo - both badly struggling this year
Missed picks - Jaylen Wells, Missi, Kyshawn George

2025 - CMB - solid pick, but we need homeruns.
Cedric Coward...debatable he could work out here....but it shows how much we missed picks....


In summary, roster is a mess.
an overpaid 32.5M IQ, too much mediocre flawed guards who can't reliably shoot....team is a mess!!

45M to a guy who's really a role player

I want to go back to this. Players like Keyonte George were dismissed by other posters but I have looked it up and saw Keyonte is averaging 22, 9 and 4 starting with the Jazz. Sure it’s still a small sample size and his shooting still sucks but he’s a positive offense player so far. Jasquez is also averaging 19,7,5 on 69% TS. Still early days so Dick could improve as well but funny how so many Raptors fans are dismissive of certain players just because we didn’t draft them.

that's true, Keyonte could had been the PG that raps needed, as with Kessler (in 2022 being the center)
i play devil's advocate and say, Keyone shoots poorly on a team with no shooting though
still, draft picks is a symptom of mistakes raps made last few years

- the obvious trading down in 2022, missing out on Nembhard and Kesler for a Center that hasn't worked out
- the belated trading for Jakob, missing out on studs like Dereck Lively, Cason Wallace, Bilal, or even one of the Thompson brothers
- also not trading FVV to Bucks for Grayson and unprotected FRP (rumour offer from bucks)
- passing on 2022#7 pick (Sharpe) + Hart for OG.
- OG trade to Knicks and subsequent IQ contract
- Mgobo over Jaylen Wells, Gradey Dick over Keyonte, Brandin or Jaquez

There are some moves that seem solid
- Barnes pick (even though, Giddey, Wagner, Algerun are guys that are surpassing Barnes), i wouldn't rate pick as homerun but solid
- CMB (even though Coward is flashing a lot of scoring potential), fills needs at 3/4/5
- Pascal Trade that led to BI <-- note, i like how this trade worked out because you get a real bucket getter and remove positional overlap between Barnes and Pascal, while BI is a few years younger)
- Shead pick

None of the moves are egregious, just so many didn't work out that Raps are kinda stuck in a 7/11.
Still, lots of good players, a bucket getter in BI, so there's still hope for Raps moving forward

What most of the anti tankers miss is that the tanking strategy is about getting as many bites at the apple as you can to grab an allstar player. So even if you miss on a higher pick, you hit on a lower pick in the same draft (see Houston) or you hit on multiple picks in the same draft (see OKC) instead of putting all your eggs into one basket. The other thing is that when it comes time to acquire an allstar, you don’t have to give up any valuable assets if you’re built up enough draft capital through tanking. (See the Spurs and Houston) You don’t have to completely gut your assets and you also haven’t locked yourself into mediocrity because you’ve drafted guys on the same timeline

[ConSarnit]

Do you honestly in good faith think this team has a conceivable path way to compete and actually be a threat in the playoffs?...Making the play ins or the 8th seed to get demolished by the first seed is not competing either....Im talking about being a legit threat to win....If so i think you will be disappointed.

To Consarnits point we moved off the Siakam era level of mid teams to another mid level era team with Ingram...Your points would be valid if Barnes was a top player or had top player in the league potential but i don't think that is the case here....Spurs at least pivoted while we are staying in the same direction hoping things change.

Here’s the thing. These guys will point to the Pacers and Heat as teams that didn’t need to tank, not acknowledging that Miami is a free agent destination with one of the best coaches in the league and the Pacers traded away starters for picks and traded for Siakam as their final piece after they’d gone through their rebuild and they were already competitive. It’s just deflection.

Is there a FA that Miami has secured over the years? We traded our starters for younger starters and kept our pick, Indy run lasted a yr and they couldn't keep up with their financial commitments. It's not a given that core would've returned, even with a healthy Hali.

IQ and prospect + picks gets us a disgruntled star in the near future is a guess
Jakob + picks may get us a different 5

I’ve heard this “we’re going to trade for a star” argument from the anti-tank brigade before but it always ignores a variety of factors.

1) by most reports the IQ contract is seen as negative value around the league. It also runs for another 3 years. I’d say it’s questionable if any team wants to take on IQ on his current contract (though maybe I’m wrong here)

2) Where I am sure I am not wrong: if a disgruntled star becomes available we are way down the list of trade partners because a) we aren’t a destination franchise and b) we don’t have the assets to compete with other teams. Consider the asset bases of teams like HOU or ATL or OKC or SAS or even a team like UTA. The market has shifted and the price has gone way up. We haven’t been accumulating the necessary assets to make a move for a star.

The days of the Kawhi trade are over. Mikal Bridges is going for 4 1sts. If a star becomes available there are multiple other teams who can out bid us and this doesn’t even factor in that stars usually have some say in where they want to go (and it’s not Toronto).

If part of the front office’s plan is to try and trade for a star they have done a poor job in setting us up for success given what we know about the trade market for stars.

[TheGeneral99]

2021 - Flynn was a bad pick but he was a 29th pick which are usually not productive players - I'll give it a D+
2022 - Barnes was a great pick - I'll give it an A
2024 - Dick is still young but seems like a "meh" pick - I'll give it a C
2025 - Walters still young, but doesn't seem like a great pick - I'll give it a D+.
2026 - CMB, looks good so far - so far it's a B.

Average grade over the past few years is a C-...so not horrible but very mediocore.

you can't do drafts like that, go look at the players after our selections that were selected. if you think Walters n GD were C n D+ look at some of the players drafter after them, if a lot of those players r worse then your C grade looks a lot better in a class if C- D's n Fs

I'm just ballparking man.

Anyways, you can't even give CMB, Walters and Dick proper grades because they are so young and it's so early in their careers.

[WiggOuts]

The premise of this thread is so bad acting as if guys not even 3 years into their careers can somehow already be determined as mistakes. Some of these guys including guys on other teams havent even been given a real opportunity yet.

People never seem to learn that young players almost never yield immediate results, guys that do are outliers