2025-26 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread

[LoveMyRaps]

People are sleeping on Collin Murray Boyles....

Best defensive prospect from the class.

[Zukkoyaki]

Fears has been a bright spot for New Orleans

[Duffman100]

CMB with a 15, 9 and 5 game with 3 steals

[peZt]

CMB is sooo good. If he develops a consistent shot, what limit is there to his ceiling? He already looks like a 10 year old vet who makes the game slow around him, who uses angles perfectly, positions his body perfectly, who makes everything look low effort AND he is an elite defender?

My post from July. Sometimes its obvious even from the first summer league game. Raptors got a gem

[mg]

Ace Bailey looks outmatched on the floor.

A guy who didn’t have the handle to beat future accountants and personal trainers was going to dominate the NBA with his “tough shot making”

lol nobody saw this coming

I think Ace is just gonna take time to develop. Type of player to explode and figure things out after 2-3 seasons

Yeah he was the most raw of the top 6 picked in the last draft.
It does kinda suck for Utah after 3 tanking seasons their highest drafted prospect might compare closer to a Jaden McDaniels supporting type player, assuming Ace can reach his ceiling defensively and also improve on the shooting. He's taking some inefficient mid range shots like he did in college. He can definitely finish with the alley oops but the Jazz don't really have any PG's to get him the ball in his spots.

[jasonxxx102]

Most of the rookies have looked way better than advertised! This is shaping up to be a really good class.

Cooper is fine. He's been disappointing relative to expectation but he's still clearly the best player in the class.

CMB is probably my favorite player archetype when it comes to real life basketball value. The elite defense provides such a high floor that if he ever figures out the offense at an above average level he's going to be a phenomenal player

Tre/Fears/Coward/VJ/Harper/Kon all look better than advertised

Queen - I never really saw what skill he had that was a + at the NBA level. He's a tweener forward who can't shoot. Don't know how that's gonna fit and being in New Orleans is just horrible for his development.

Bailey - I talked all leading up to the draft and through the summer how he was really going to struggle in the league as a scorer because he can't create any on-ball separation and he's not really an off-ball player... or at least doesn't see himself that way. He hasn't proven me wrong. Has looked awful so far. People will make up excuses that he's sick or something but he's looked bad bottom line.

[Bornstellar]

People are sleeping on Collin Murray Boyles....

Best defensive prospect from the class.

He impressed me in the Spurs/Raptors game. He definitely plays with a lot of toughness

[LoveMyRaps]

People are sleeping on Collin Murray Boyles....

Best defensive prospect from the class.

He impressed me in the Spurs/Raptors game. He definitely plays with a lot of toughness

The Draymond comparison makes a lot of sense for him.

[MMyhre]

Most of the rookies have looked way better than advertised! This is shaping up to be a really good class.

Cooper is fine. He's been disappointing relative to expectation but he's still clearly the best player in the class.

CMB is probably my favorite player archetype when it comes to real life basketball value. The elite defense provides such a high floor that if he ever figures out the offense at an above average level he's going to be a phenomenal player

Tre/Fears/Coward/VJ/Harper/Kon all look better than advertised

Queen - I never really saw what skill he had that was a + at the NBA level. He's a tweener forward who can't shoot. Don't know how that's gonna fit and being in New Orleans is just horrible for his development.

Bailey - I talked all leading up to the draft and through the summer how he was really going to struggle in the league as a scorer because he can't create any on-ball separation and he's not really an off-ball player... or at least doesn't see himself that way. He hasn't proven me wrong. Has looked awful so far. People will make up excuses that he's sick or something but he's looked bad bottom line.

So Edgecombe is averaging 20.3 pts, 5 reb, 5 ast/2 to, with 1.5 steals/0.3 blk on a 60.7 ts %. Why are you saying Flagg and his 13.8 pts, 6.5 reb, 3 ast/1.8 to, 0.8 stl/0.5 blk on a terrible 49.3 ts % is "clearly" the best player in the draft? What are we doing here?

Even if you were high on Flagg, which is fine, adding the "clearly" is just disrespectful to the other talent in this draft which has outperformed him.

I believe Flagg will do better, but there is nothing clear about him being the best from this draft right now.

[MMyhre]

https://youtu.be/UudzNZ5amfQ?si=tKo8eRkJHGDT-WJl

Some of the passes Coward is already making is really impressive, I didn't expect to see that level of playmaking so early.

The Grizzlies need to stop being bums and start this kid.

[jasonxxx102]

Most of the rookies have looked way better than advertised! This is shaping up to be a really good class.

Cooper is fine. He's been disappointing relative to expectation but he's still clearly the best player in the class.

CMB is probably my favorite player archetype when it comes to real life basketball value. The elite defense provides such a high floor that if he ever figures out the offense at an above average level he's going to be a phenomenal player

Tre/Fears/Coward/VJ/Harper/Kon all look better than advertised

Queen - I never really saw what skill he had that was a + at the NBA level. He's a tweener forward who can't shoot. Don't know how that's gonna fit and being in New Orleans is just horrible for his development.

Bailey - I talked all leading up to the draft and through the summer how he was really going to struggle in the league as a scorer because he can't create any on-ball separation and he's not really an off-ball player... or at least doesn't see himself that way. He hasn't proven me wrong. Has looked awful so far. People will make up excuses that he's sick or something but he's looked bad bottom line.

So Edgecombe is averaging 20.3 pts, 5 reb, 5 ast/2 to, with 1.5 steals/0.3 blk on a 60.7 ts %. Why are you saying Flagg and his 13.8 pts, 6.5 reb, 3 ast/1.8 to, 0.8 stl/0.5 blk on a terrible 49.3 ts % is "clearly" the best player in the draft? What are we doing here?

Even if you were high on Flagg, which is fine, adding the "clearly" is just disrespectful to the other talent in this draft which has outperformed him.

I believe Flagg will do better, but there is nothing clear about him being the best from this draft right now.

nothing like overreacting to 5 games in a rookie season

[MMyhre]

Most of the rookies have looked way better than advertised! This is shaping up to be a really good class.

Cooper is fine. He's been disappointing relative to expectation but he's still clearly the best player in the class.

CMB is probably my favorite player archetype when it comes to real life basketball value. The elite defense provides such a high floor that if he ever figures out the offense at an above average level he's going to be a phenomenal player

Tre/Fears/Coward/VJ/Harper/Kon all look better than advertised

Queen - I never really saw what skill he had that was a + at the NBA level. He's a tweener forward who can't shoot. Don't know how that's gonna fit and being in New Orleans is just horrible for his development.

Bailey - I talked all leading up to the draft and through the summer how he was really going to struggle in the league as a scorer because he can't create any on-ball separation and he's not really an off-ball player... or at least doesn't see himself that way. He hasn't proven me wrong. Has looked awful so far. People will make up excuses that he's sick or something but he's looked bad bottom line.

So Edgecombe is averaging 20.3 pts, 5 reb, 5 ast/2 to, with 1.5 steals/0.3 blk on a 60.7 ts %. Why are you saying Flagg and his 13.8 pts, 6.5 reb, 3 ast/1.8 to, 0.8 stl/0.5 blk on a terrible 49.3 ts % is "clearly" the best player in the draft? What are we doing here?

Even if you were high on Flagg, which is fine, adding the "clearly" is just disrespectful to the other talent in this draft which has outperformed him.

I believe Flagg will do better, but there is nothing clear about him being the best from this draft right now.

nothing like overreacting to 5 games in a rookie season

Or we could use the six games we have seen them play at the NBA level, to observe that Flagg is clearly not a way better player than Edgecombe.

I don't think making that statement is anything close to an overreaction.

[G R E Y]

Read on Twitter

Wait I read that wrong. Avoided major injury is good!

Phew!



UPDATE:

Read on Twitter

**** ESPN, man...

[pepe1991]

Fun fact: Nets drafted 3 point guards.
Leading assist guy in assists total, is Michael Porter Jr. He has 18 assists. Total. Second is Cam.

Egor took 26 shots in his young career. 24 out of 26 shots were 3s. He is college 27,3% three point shooter, who even struggled with FT%.

[MMyhre]

Rookie BBall ref leaderboard:
BPM
1 Coward 4.2
2 Edgecombe 0.5
3 Kalkbrenner 0.3
PER
1 Coward 20.7
2 Harper 17.5
3 Kalkbrenner 17.1
VORP
1 Coward 0.3
2 Edgecombe 0.2
3 Kalkbrenner 0.1
WS
1 Coward 0.8
2 Edgecombe 0.7
3 Sion James 0.6
WS/48
1 Coward 19.5 %
2 Sion James 16.5 %
3 Dylan Harper 16 %
True Shooting
1 Sion James 88.7 %
2 Kalkbrenner 80.4 %
3 Coward 73.1 %

Per 36 minutes comparisons:

Cedric Coward
21.1 pts/73.1 ts %, 6.9 reb(1.9 oreb), 3.5 ast/1.7 to, 1.4 stl, 0.5 blk, 4.5 fta, 2.4 3pm, 68.1 efg %.
VJ Edgecombe
18.8 pts/60.7 ts %, 4.6 reb(1.4 oreb), 4.6 ast/1.8 to, 1.4 stl, 0.3 blk, 2.6 fta, 2.5 3pm, 58.1 efg %.
Ryan Kalkbrenner
12 pts/80.4 ts %, 8.8 reb(3.8 oreb), 0.6 ast/2.1 to, 1.7 stl, 2.9 blk, 1 fta, 81.1 efg %.
Cooper Flagg
14.9 pts/50.4 ts %, 6.9 reb(1.1 oreb), 3.1 ast/2.4 to, 0.9 stl, 0.5 blk, 3.3 fta, 1.3 3pm, 43.5 efg %.
Kon Knueppel
16.7 pts/61.6 ts %, 5.8 reb (0.5 oreb), 2.7 ast/2.6 to, 0.7 stl, 0 blk, 1.4 fta, 3.8 3pm, 60.5 efg %.
Sion James
14.1 pts/88.7 ts %, 4.4 reb (0.7 oreb), 2.2 ast/0.7 to, 0.9 stl, 0.4 blk, 1.5 fta, 2.9 3pm, 86.4 efg %.
Jeremiah Fears
18.6 pts/53.7 ts %, 3.4 reb (0.9 oreb), 5.2 ast/3.2 to, 2 stl, 0 blk, 2.7 fta, 1.6 3pm, 51.4 efg %.
Tre Johnson
17.2 pts/53.7 ts %, 4.8 reb (1 oreb), 2.2 ast/1.8 to, 0.4 stl, 1.2 blk, 1.4 fta, 3 3pm, 51.3 efg %.
Collin Murray-Boyles
16.9 pts/56.3 ts %, 6.1 reb (3.5 oreb), 2.5 ast/1.9 to, 1.9 stl, 0.3 blk, 2.2 fta, 1.9 3pm, 54.5 efg %.

I think Cedric Coward is going to win the Rookie of the Year award. He is more polished than the younger players and simply the most complete player from the draft right now. He has great size/length, athleticism, strength, ball handling, shooting, gets to the free throw line and has shown flashes of high level passing/playmaking abilities. His minutes are increasing and it's only a matter of time until he starts for the Grizzlies.

As for some of the prospects in this class like Fears and Johnson, I think they will make a sophomore leap rather than a rookie leap. Maybe in march we get some runs from some, but they need more time.

Fears needs to work on his shooting and decision making, but is better than anticipated with his speed, rim pressure and toughness.

Johnson is a confusing case to me, he has awkward movement, he runs weird. This makes me question his ceiling a little bit as he is too reliant on his shooting and has to develop other stuff to avoid being one dimensional. And because he is an awkward athlete, and not a good foul drawer/contact taker or inside scorer, it's a bit hard to place his roof as a player. He will be a fantastic jump shooter (heck, he already is at 44.9 % with tons of threes), but he has 2 shots at the rim and 5 layups to 69 jump shots attempted this season, and he is 1-8 fg on layups/dunks/hook shots. It's like 99 points in jump shooting and 1 point in layups/dunks, so I question his all around game and ceiling in general. Fears, for comparison, has 15 shots at the rim and has made 11 shots and is also an excellent 8-16 fg from 3-10 feet.

As for defense, the best defensive field goal % difference when defended by the rookie:
1 Kon Knueppel -7.4 dfg %
2 Jeremiah Fears -3.2 dfg %
3 Sion James -2.9 dfg %
4 Ryan Kalkbrenner -2.5 dfg %
5 Tre Johnson -2.1 dfg %
6 Ace Bailey -1.8 dfg %
7 Cedric Coward -0.7 dfg %
8 Cooper Flagg -0.6 dfg %
9 Walter Clayton Jr +0.7 dfg %
10 Dylan Harper +1.5 dfg %

Worst rookies at lowering opposing shot percentages:
1 Egor Demin + 6.7 dfg %
1 Collin Murray Boyles + 6.7 dfg %
3 Edgecombe +5.8 dfg %

Small sample size still, but interesting data from the Defensive Dashboard on nba.com.
Good defensive players like Derrick Jones Jr, Castle, Smart, Wemby are at the top with ranges from -12 to -8 dfg %, so it gives it more credibility.

I only took stats from rookies with a decent amount of minutes, and I didn't include some players I don't believe to be ROY competitors in the PER 36 min section (Bailey, Demin etc).