HOU - ORL

[LarsV8]

Suggs / Howard
for
FVV / Sheppard / Capela

Orlando is struggling w/ underperforming big men and shooting, and perhaps just mismatched pieces. FVV helped Houston tremendously by getting organized and teaching them how to play correctly, and he can do the same for Orlando, once back from injury. Reed has tremendous upside and can help space the floor, if they continue with Banchero being the offensive hub. Capela is an upgrade at the Center position, and is relatively cheap.

Houston title odds took a hit with the FVV injury, which hurts, as we don't know how long Durant will continue being Durant. With the Rockets looking outstanding this year, they should look to plug potential weaknesses, including POA defense. Suggs provides alot of what they need in defense. His contract is also descending, which will help with Houston's future commitments to Amen Thompson and Tari Eason.

(Yes, I know FVV has an implied NTC, we will assume he waives it)

[BK_2020]

I don't see what this trade does for Orlando except get worse and help Houston.

[Godaddycurse]

missing couple picks from houston. I dont think Capela is better than Goga and FVV is negative value at this point. Suggs to Reed is a big downgrade for Orlando so there is zero incentive without additional value.

[ReggiesKnicks]

Can you walk me through your logic, OP?

FVV is dead money this year, which makes him a negative value contract no matter how you slice and dice the details.
Capela is neutral.
Sheppard probably has some positive value, but he is making more than TMLE for a player who isn't rotation-caliber in any capacity and is horrific inside the 3-point line (31.6% on 2P FGA is historically bad). He can't really be a 3+D POA guard since he lacks size/strength/quickness to stay in front of ball-handlers, and his size makes him an easy target for any offensive attack.

Meanwhile, Suggs, in limited minutes, has been terrific. The injury is going to hang over his head, and he will have a slow ramp-up period through December and into 2026, but his ceiling this year and over the next 2-3 years is still far greater than what a returning FVV and Reed will be.

[jbk1234]

The Magic don't consider this. It's negative salary filler and Sheppard for Suggs.

[LarsV8]

Can you walk me through your logic, OP?

FVV is dead money this year, which makes him a negative value contract no matter how you slice and dice the details.
Capela is neutral.
Sheppard probably has some positive value, but he is making more than TMLE for a player who isn't rotation-caliber in any capacity and is horrific inside the 3-point line (31.6% on 2P FGA is historically bad). He can't really be a 3+D POA guard since he lacks size/strength/quickness to stay in front of ball-handlers, and his size makes him an easy target for any offensive attack.

Meanwhile, Suggs, in limited minutes, has been terrific. The injury is going to hang over his head, and he will have a slow ramp-up period through December and into 2026, but his ceiling this year and over the next 2-3 years is still far greater than what a returning FVV and Reed will be.

- FVV is dead money like Haliburton is dead money, sure for this year, doesn't mean there isn't a valuable player waiting there.
- Capela is a positive contributor on a great contract, and better than WCJ, while cheaper.
- Sheppard is currently a rotation player for the #1 SRS team in the league. And his value isn't who he is, it is who he could become.

Suggs is currently the best player in the deal, but is similar in caliber to FVV, although more expensive and younger. If FVV wasn't injured, Houston would not consider this deal.

[jayjaysee]

Side me with this missing a couple firsts from Houston. But Orlando is a win now team, so not sure I see them wanting to see what FVV looks like next year.

[orlando_joe]

Can you walk me through your logic, OP?

FVV is dead money this year, which makes him a negative value contract no matter how you slice and dice the details.
Capela is neutral.
Sheppard probably has some positive value, but he is making more than TMLE for a player who isn't rotation-caliber in any capacity and is horrific inside the 3-point line (31.6% on 2P FGA is historically bad). He can't really be a 3+D POA guard since he lacks size/strength/quickness to stay in front of ball-handlers, and his size makes him an easy target for any offensive attack.

Meanwhile, Suggs, in limited minutes, has been terrific. The injury is going to hang over his head, and he will have a slow ramp-up period through December and into 2026, but his ceiling this year and over the next 2-3 years is still far greater than what a returning FVV and Reed will be.

- FVV is dead money like Haliburton is dead money, sure for this year, doesn't mean there isn't a valuable player waiting there.
- Capela is a positive contributor on a great contract, and better than WCJ, while cheaper.
- Sheppard is currently a rotation player for the #1 SRS team in the league. And his value isn't who he is, it is who he could become.

Suggs is currently the best player in the deal, but is similar in caliber to FVV, although more expensive and younger. If FVV wasn't injured, Houston would not consider this deal.

even if fvv was healthy i think magic still pass
capela is not better then wcj and magic do not need a 4th center wont play over goga or moe wagner
magic have a short sg on rookie deal in jase who gets no min
easy pass

[Skybox]

ORL should have signed FVV when HOU did and for the same reasons (THAT was the summer they had all the money)...their offense would be a step ahead of where they need to (try to) go this year.

Doesn't make any sense now, especially with FVV out. Sheppard is the anti-Mosley player, Capela is no longer much of anything but a luxury 3rd string C...like Goga, but old. As soon as Moe Wagner is back, he'll lead the bench scoring. They really don't have a spot for a Capela-type...if he was younger, he could be the kind of stopper/finisher next to Franz and Paolo that I've been hoping for...but Capela is no longer Capela and isn't likely to get better.

Healthy Suggs has more value than healthy FVV in 2025, but I could see the logic in team-building for both. Great descending contract. Suggs is the heart of the franchise too - it would take something really significant or desperate, way beyond his very visible value, imo. If Suggs and Bane don't work, they'd likely shop Bane first.

[tiderulz]

Can you walk me through your logic, OP?

FVV is dead money this year, which makes him a negative value contract no matter how you slice and dice the details.
Capela is neutral.
Sheppard probably has some positive value, but he is making more than TMLE for a player who isn't rotation-caliber in any capacity and is horrific inside the 3-point line (31.6% on 2P FGA is historically bad). He can't really be a 3+D POA guard since he lacks size/strength/quickness to stay in front of ball-handlers, and his size makes him an easy target for any offensive attack.

Meanwhile, Suggs, in limited minutes, has been terrific. The injury is going to hang over his head, and he will have a slow ramp-up period through December and into 2026, but his ceiling this year and over the next 2-3 years is still far greater than what a returning FVV and Reed will be.

- FVV is dead money like Haliburton is dead money, sure for this year, doesn't mean there isn't a valuable player waiting there.
- Capela is a positive contributor on a great contract, and better than WCJ, while cheaper.
- Sheppard is currently a rotation player for the #1 SRS team in the league. And his value isn't who he is, it is who he could become.

Suggs is currently the best player in the deal, but is similar in caliber to FVV, although more expensive and younger. If FVV wasn't injured, Houston would not consider this deal.

except FVV will want a new deal. Capela is on a great deal, but he is an energy player, rebounding and blocking. and we have Mo Wagner coming back very soon. Our big men are the best part of the team, but they arent the worst. This deal is dead on arrival to me.

[pipfan]

I say one good 1st or 2 regular ones, but Orl should just keep Suggs

[Texas Chuck]

FVV probably blocks this, right? Not sure why we are just assuming he agrees to this so that our favorite team can replace him for just a prosect the bloom is largely off.

I don't see Orlando really considering this at all, but if Houston wanted Suggs to replace FVV, they should make a serious offer. Not a well if FVV wasn't hurt we wouldn't even offer this deal. Who cares? Orlando doesn't. You are offering them dead salary FVV.

This needs a lot of value and a lot less justification for why Houston is really doing Orlando a favor lol.

[Skybox]

I'd also Suggs doesn't answer many questions in FVV's absence. Suggs is NO PG...if HOU felt that Amen was ready to take the reins as primary ballhandler, it might make sense - but I'm starting to think even "Combo Guard" is a bit generous for Suggs. He is an elite defender and a high-volume threat from 3, he'll give you some highlight dunks off of steals or (maybe someday) fast breaks, but he's still a limited but elite role player.

[Nate the Great]

I'd also Suggs doesn't answer many questions in FVV's absence. Suggs is NO PG...if HOU felt that Amen was ready to take the reins as primary ballhandler, it might make sense - but I'm starting to think even "Combo Guard" is a bit generous for Suggs. He is an elite defender and a high-volume threat from 3, he'll give you some highlight dunks off of steals or (maybe someday) fast breaks, but he's still a limited but elite role player.

Yeah. Suggs’ assist / turnover ratio is less than 1.5, which isn’t even good for a shooting guard. I’d love to have him on my team, but he should be handling the ball less.

[Skybox]

I'd also Suggs doesn't answer many questions in FVV's absence. Suggs is NO PG...if HOU felt that Amen was ready to take the reins as primary ballhandler, it might make sense - but I'm starting to think even "Combo Guard" is a bit generous for Suggs. He is an elite defender and a high-volume threat from 3, he'll give you some highlight dunks off of steals or (maybe someday) fast breaks, but he's still a limited but elite role player.

Yeah. Suggs’ assist / turnover ratio is less than 1.5, which isn’t even good for a shooting guard. I’d love to have him on my team, but he should be handling the ball less.

Really good player and better teammate...but not an FVV, not a PG.

[LarsV8]

The crux of it is that Houston doesn't really need a traditional PG, as the offense creation is run by Sengun / Durant, usually in the high post. In theory, Amen and Suggs, could manage the occasional ball handling, as imperfect ball handlers, but it should be good enough to manage. The PG in Houston, is really just bringing the ball up the court, which Amen /Suggs could manage.

Small sample size, but, Houston already has the #1 offense, what they need from the position is defense and shooting, with only occasional ball handling, which I think Suggs provides, as a combo guard. So I think the fit is good (provided the small sample size is real), its more about just finding a long term solution to the direction we are going. As noted, the defense is top ten, but could still improve, and I think Suggs supplements all the current shortcomings.

Okogie has really been playing the role of the 3 and D, point guard, and has been excellent, but he likely falls back to Earth at some point, and is more suited as a backup.

Fit aside, what is lacking from the value standpoint? What if Houston added their 2028 first?

[gswhoops]

The crux of it is that Houston doesn't really need a traditional PG, as the offense creation is run by Sengun / Durant, usually in the high post. In theory, Amen and Suggs, could manage the occasional ball handling, as imperfect ball handlers, but it should be good enough to manage. The PG in Houston, is really just bringing the ball up the court, which Amen /Suggs could manage.

Small sample size, but, Houston already has the #1 offense, what they need from the position is defense and shooting, with only occasional ball handling, which I think Suggs provides, as a combo guard. So I think the fit is good (provided the small sample size is real), its more about just finding a long term solution to the direction we are going. As noted, the defense is top ten, but could still improve, and I think Suggs supplements all the current shortcomings.

Okogie has really been playing the role of the 3 and D, point guard, and has been excellent, but he likely falls back to Earth at some point, and is more suited as a backup.

Fit aside, what is lacking from the value standpoint? What if Houston added their 2028 first?

I don't think you can square the circle here if you think that FVV is an asset. At absolute best he's neutral salary filler.

[Skybox]

The crux of it is that Houston doesn't really need a traditional PG, as the offense creation is run by Sengun / Durant, usually in the high post. In theory, Amen and Suggs, could manage the occasional ball handling, as imperfect ball handlers, but it should be good enough to manage. The PG in Houston, is really just bringing the ball up the court, which Amen /Suggs could manage.

Small sample size, but, Houston already has the #1 offense, what they need from the position is defense and shooting, with only occasional ball handling, which I think Suggs provides, as a combo guard. So I think the fit is good (provided the small sample size is real), its more about just finding a long term solution to the direction we are going. As noted, the defense is top ten, but could still improve, and I think Suggs supplements all the current shortcomings.

Okogie has really been playing the role of the 3 and D, point guard, and has been excellent, but he likely falls back to Earth at some point, and is more suited as a backup.

Fit aside, what is lacking from the value standpoint? What if Houston added their 2028 first?

I don't think you can square the circle here if you think that FVV is an asset. At absolute best he's neutral salary filler.

...and, despite early indications, ORL isn't going to abandon a win-now plan to take a step back, wait for FVV to (maybe) heal up and add a draft pick...they've got way too much payroll (OP actually makes it worse as Suggs' deal descends) and young stars running out of patience.

[gswhoops]

The crux of it is that Houston doesn't really need a traditional PG, as the offense creation is run by Sengun / Durant, usually in the high post. In theory, Amen and Suggs, could manage the occasional ball handling, as imperfect ball handlers, but it should be good enough to manage. The PG in Houston, is really just bringing the ball up the court, which Amen /Suggs could manage.

Small sample size, but, Houston already has the #1 offense, what they need from the position is defense and shooting, with only occasional ball handling, which I think Suggs provides, as a combo guard. So I think the fit is good (provided the small sample size is real), its more about just finding a long term solution to the direction we are going. As noted, the defense is top ten, but could still improve, and I think Suggs supplements all the current shortcomings.

Okogie has really been playing the role of the 3 and D, point guard, and has been excellent, but he likely falls back to Earth at some point, and is more suited as a backup.

Fit aside, what is lacking from the value standpoint? What if Houston added their 2028 first?

I don't think you can square the circle here if you think that FVV is an asset. At absolute best he's neutral salary filler.

...and, despite early indications, ORL isn't going to abandon a win-now plan to take a step back, wait for FVV to (maybe) heal up and add a draft pick...they've got way too much payroll (OP actually makes it worse as Suggs' deal descends) and young stars running out of patience.

Yeah true - even if you can get the value right, you have to bring in a third team to turn Houston's rebuilding assets into a win-now player that fits the Magic better than Suggs; at that point it's effectively a different deal.

[wemby]

Reed Sheppard: small, defensively challenged shooting guard who shoots 35.6% from THE FIELD in 292 attempts and shoots 1 free throw every 37 MINUTES. If we forget for a minute he was a #3 pick (and no one should pay for the Rockets' mistake), I don't see how anyone should expect to get back any value in return with him as a centerpiece.