Official 2025-2026 Regular Season Thread

[SOUL]

I feel like everybody is wanting everything at once or even everything all together when that's just not feasible. People already wanting to "go back to last year" and not run fast and play defense first + put the ball back in the hands of Franz/Paolo again instead of Suggs/Black, but also incorporate Bane more... all somehow while making sure nobody else gets frozen out of the offense and the ball continues moving.. it's just a lot of things people are demanding/complaining about when it just really needs to be simplified.

If the simple thing is simply going back to the offense they know last year but not having 2/3rds of the team shoot historic lows from three while Bane gets acclimated.. I'm fine with that. As long as we learn how to incorporate Bane by mid-season.

Cam Johnson is also massively struggling on a new team as well as some other players.

Yep, but Nuggets continue to win as he adjusts. They only lost season opener in OT and single possession game to Blazers, Blazers game being blunder where they pissed off game at the end by making two silly mistakes in a row.

Jokic makes everything easier

[pepe1991]

I feel like everybody is wanting everything at once or even everything all together when that's just not feasible. People already wanting to "go back to last year" and not run fast and play defense first + put the ball back in the hands of Franz/Paolo again instead of Suggs/Black, but also incorporate Bane more... all somehow while making sure nobody else gets frozen out of the offense and the ball continues moving.. it's just a lot of things people are demanding/complaining about when it just really needs to be simplified.

If the simple thing is simply going back to the offense they know last year but not having 2/3rds of the team shoot historic lows from three while Bane gets acclimated.. I'm fine with that. As long as we learn how to incorporate Bane by mid-season.

Cam Johnson is also massively struggling on a new team as well as some other players.

Yep, but Nuggets continue to win as he adjusts. They only lost season opener in OT and single possession game to Blazers, Blazers game being blunder where they pissed off game at the end by making two silly mistakes in a row.

Jokic makes everything easier

For sure. But pretty much every single team but OKC went through changes in starting 5. For one reason or another.

Next month it will be very interesting to see how Magic deal with various teams. Hawks & Celtics started season looking pretty damn bad.

Hawks vs Magic will be fun watch, no PG in sight

Dyson Daniels started season looking like pile of s***. And that's a guy they paid $100M...

[drsd]

Hawks vs Magic will be fun watch, no PG in sight

ESPN predictions:

Magic not favored at 47.5% chance to win @Atlanta
Magic favored at 62.7% chance in home-game-1 against Boston
Magic favored at 60.5% chance in home-game-2 against Boston

Many here like the idea of a sweep, but on pure mathematical terms, this is a 18% chance (if one assumes ESPN has good odds).

2-1 is the most likely outcome. Which takes the Magic to 5-5 in the first 10 games. And it's about 60% the Magic go either 3-0 or 2-1. So, more likely than not, a good outcome in these three games.


Sweep 3–0: 0.475 × 0.627 × 0.605 ≈ 18%
Go 2–1: ≈ 42.4%
Go 1–2: ≈ 31.8%
Go 0–3: ≈ 7.7%

For the Maths nerds:
P(2–1) = P(L1 W2 W3) + P(W1 L2 W3) + P(W1 W2 L3)
= (1 – p1) * p2 * p3 + p1 * (1 – p2) * p3 + p1 * p2 * (1 – p3)
where
p1 = 0.475 (Game 1 @ Atlanta)
p2 = 0.627 (Home vs Boston, game 1)
p3 = 0.605 (Home vs Boston, game 2)


Numerically for the 2-1 outcome:
(1 − 0.475) × 0.627 × 0.605 = 0.1993
0.475 × (1 − 0.627) × 0.605 = 0.1076
0.475 × 0.627 × (1 − 0.605) = 0.1171
Sum ≈ 42.4%

[GelbeWand09]

(Banchero) is shooting 47 percent of his attempts at the rim (a career-best), while attempting 32 percent of his shots in the mid-range (career low) with fewer 3-point attempts (20 percent 3PAr, career low).

SI.com link

This is a good story that Banchero's efficiency is improving because his shot selection is better. Good.

Its a good thing (not necessarily the 3Point thing because he should become a better shooter instead of lowering his attempts on still bad %) but question is with the few games we had, how much is the data screwed because we played the no bigs Hornets & the Wizards who defended him with Khris Middleton back to back. We should wait 20-25 games how this goes.
That his efficiency is still below leaque average is pretty worrying, especially because his player type (oneway player without high level playmaking impact) needs to be over .600%TS. But the season is young, lets hope he improves.

[drsd]

Its a good thing (not necessarily the 3Point thing because he should become a better shooter instead of lowering his attempts on still bad %) but question is with the few games we had, how much is the data screwed because we played the no bigs Hornets & the Wizards who defended him with Khris Middleton back to back. We should wait 20-25 games how this goes.
That his efficiency is still below leaque average is pretty worrying, especially because his player type (oneway player without high level playmaking impact) needs to be over .600%TS. But the season is young, lets hope he improves.

Banchero's eFG% line is indeed a tiny bit down from last year: 0.50 to 0.49, but this is off-set by his made FTs per game jumping a huge 1.2 per game.

Looking back to the SI story, for me the key is that Banchero is taking less mid-range jumpers. That is a good thing. It implies less hero ball.

p.s. Banchero's rebounding line has exploded this year to a career high 9.3rpg. Any thoughts on "why"? Maybe it's just that the pace has jumped by 6.8 and thus there are about 8-10 more missed FGs per Magic game (both teams combined).

EDIT: I looked it up and ouch;
2024–25: Magic 85.8 FGA/G, Opponents 81.5 FGA/G.
2025–26 (to 4 Nov 2025): Magic 85.6 FGA/G, Opponents 88.7 FGA/G.

Year on year change: Magic −0.2 FGA/G; Opponents +7.2 FGA/G.

Is this true? It explains Orlando's struggles that an increase in pace is NOT leading to an increase in shots taken. Ooff.

[MasterGMer]

Its a good thing (not necessarily the 3Point thing because he should become a better shooter instead of lowering his attempts on still bad %) but question is with the few games we had, how much is the data screwed because we played the no bigs Hornets & the Wizards who defended him with Khris Middleton back to back. We should wait 20-25 games how this goes.
That his efficiency is still below leaque average is pretty worrying, especially because his player type (oneway player without high level playmaking impact) needs to be over .600%TS. But the season is young, lets hope he improves.

Banchero's eFG% line is indeed a tiny bit down from last year: 0.50 to 0.49, but this is off-set by his made FTs per game jumping a huge 1.2 per game.

Looking back to the SI story, for me the key is that Banchero is taking less mid-range jumpers. That is a good thing. It implies less hero ball.

p.s. Banchero's rebounding line has exploded this year to a career high 9.3rpg. Any thoughts on "why"? Maybe it's just that the pace has jumped by 6.8 and thus there are about 8-10 more missed FGs per Magic game (both teams combined).

EDIT: I looked it up and ouch;
2024–25: Magic 85.8 FGA/G, Opponents 81.5 FGA/G.
2025–26 (to 4 Nov 2025): Magic 85.6 FGA/G, Opponents 88.7 FGA/G.

Year on year change: Magic −0.2 FGA/G; Opponents +7.2 FGA/G.

Is this true? It explains Orlando's struggles that an increase in pace is NOT leading to an increase in shots taken. Ooff.

That is concerning. Faster tempo's main objective is to get easier shots when defense is not set. So what is our eFG% like team wise?

Again, this is too early. We will see after a tougher stretch

[Fortune Teller]

That’s likely because we’re turning the ball over so much and not forcing turnovers on the other end?

[ORLMagicGirl15]

Watch on YouTube

Haven’t even the whole video yet but since it’s Paolo, I am going to go ahead and say caution: language.

[MasterGMer]

Despite Paolo's below league average eFG%, he is capable of being a volume scorer and shooter. I think we over state the importance of efficiency too much without realizing Paolo is a volume scorer and shooter.

That is why Paolo is the upcoming young super star in this league. Big fan

[Idiosyncratic]

Its a good thing (not necessarily the 3Point thing because he should become a better shooter instead of lowering his attempts on still bad %) but question is with the few games we had, how much is the data screwed because we played the no bigs Hornets & the Wizards who defended him with Khris Middleton back to back. We should wait 20-25 games how this goes.
That his efficiency is still below leaque average is pretty worrying, especially because his player type (oneway player without high level playmaking impact) needs to be over .600%TS. But the season is young, lets hope he improves.

Banchero's eFG% line is indeed a tiny bit down from last year: 0.50 to 0.49, but this is off-set by his made FTs per game jumping a huge 1.2 per game.

Looking back to the SI story, for me the key is that Banchero is taking less mid-range jumpers. That is a good thing. It implies less hero ball.

p.s. Banchero's rebounding line has exploded this year to a career high 9.3rpg. Any thoughts on "why"? Maybe it's just that the pace has jumped by 6.8 and thus there are about 8-10 more missed FGs per Magic game (both teams combined).

EDIT: I looked it up and ouch;
2024–25: Magic 85.8 FGA/G, Opponents 81.5 FGA/G.
2025–26 (to 4 Nov 2025): Magic 85.6 FGA/G, Opponents 88.7 FGA/G.

Year on year change: Magic −0.2 FGA/G; Opponents +7.2 FGA/G.

Is this true? It explains Orlando's struggles that an increase in pace is NOT leading to an increase in shots taken. Ooff.

Rebounds per 100 possessions are way up for him as well so not just a pace thing. Blocks also up. Could be small sample noise, but my eyes say the defensive effort (rebounding included) has been better. Offensive rebounds have not changed though unfortunately.

Key for Banchero if he is never going to be a great 3 point shooter is to get a bit more competent on the open 3s and just keep going to the basket. Pass out of the mid range unless it is late clock (or open!) and not late clock he made himself by holding the ball for 15 sec. Maybe won't necessarily get him to being a superstar without a seriously improved 3, but would make him a lot better. He's too talented to not be able to make those simple changes to improve his efficiency. And I think I see signs that the coaches are trying to lead him that way.

On the field goal attempts thing you have to remember we are shooting 10 more free throws a game than last year. Not exact science but 2 free throws ~= 1 possession or FGA.

[Idiosyncratic]

Despite Paolo's below league average eFG%, he is capable of being a volume scorer and shooter. I think we over state the importance of efficiency too much without realizing Paolo is a volume scorer and shooter.

That is why Paolo is the upcoming young super star in this league. Big fan

True, volume does allow you to be a bit less efficient, however... In today's NBA there are volume shooters that can routinely get above a 60+ TS%. Steph, Tatum, Giannis, Shai, Jokic etc... Also coincidentally those are the last 5 titles-- well actually that is not a coincidence. It's just math. Trying to overcome your volume shooter's 55 TS% to beat a 63 TS% is REALLY REALLY hard.

That is why so many of us are hard on Paolo, we know he has to get better if we want to win a title. Maybe not as high as them, especially if we still can be a top 5 defense, but gotta get better. And I think he can!

[UCFJayBird]

Its a good thing (not necessarily the 3Point thing because he should become a better shooter instead of lowering his attempts on still bad %) but question is with the few games we had, how much is the data screwed because we played the no bigs Hornets & the Wizards who defended him with Khris Middleton back to back. We should wait 20-25 games how this goes.
That his efficiency is still below leaque average is pretty worrying, especially because his player type (oneway player without high level playmaking impact) needs to be over .600%TS. But the season is young, lets hope he improves.

Banchero's eFG% line is indeed a tiny bit down from last year: 0.50 to 0.49, but this is off-set by his made FTs per game jumping a huge 1.2 per game.

Looking back to the SI story, for me the key is that Banchero is taking less mid-range jumpers. That is a good thing. It implies less hero ball.

p.s. Banchero's rebounding line has exploded this year to a career high 9.3rpg. Any thoughts on "why"? Maybe it's just that the pace has jumped by 6.8 and thus there are about 8-10 more missed FGs per Magic game (both teams combined).

EDIT: I looked it up and ouch;
2024–25: Magic 85.8 FGA/G, Opponents 81.5 FGA/G.
2025–26 (to 4 Nov 2025): Magic 85.6 FGA/G, Opponents 88.7 FGA/G.

Year on year change: Magic −0.2 FGA/G; Opponents +7.2 FGA/G.

Is this true? It explains Orlando's struggles that an increase in pace is NOT leading to an increase in shots taken. Ooff.

Are we attempting more FTs? Players being fouled on shots and going to the line will not count as FGAs so that could also explain a portion of why our FGA/G is actually down despite the increased pace (plus I imagine turnovers are up).

[ORLMagicGirl15]

Despite Paolo's below league average eFG%, he is capable of being a volume scorer and shooter. I think we over state the importance of efficiency too much without realizing Paolo is a volume scorer and shooter.

That is why Paolo is the upcoming young super star in this league. Big fan

Nah, that’s just going to get him the inefficient chucker label. He needs to improve his efficiency.

[KillMonger]

Read on Twitter

[bigdogdylan5]

Hawks vs Magic will be fun watch, no PG in sight

ESPN predictions:

Magic not favored at 47.5% chance to win @Atlanta
Magic favored at 62.7% chance in home-game-1 against Boston
Magic favored at 60.5% chance in home-game-2 against Boston

Many here like the idea of a sweep, but on pure mathematical terms, this is a 18% chance (if one assumes ESPN has good odds).

2-1 is the most likely outcome. Which takes the Magic to 5-5 in the first 10 games. And it's about 60% the Magic go either 3-0 or 2-1. So, more likely than not, a good outcome in these three games.


Sweep 3–0: 0.475 × 0.627 × 0.605 ≈ 18%
Go 2–1: ≈ 42.4%
Go 1–2: ≈ 31.8%
Go 0–3: ≈ 7.7%

For the Maths nerds:
P(2–1) = P(L1 W2 W3) + P(W1 L2 W3) + P(W1 W2 L3)
= (1 – p1) * p2 * p3 + p1 * (1 – p2) * p3 + p1 * p2 * (1 – p3)
where
p1 = 0.475 (Game 1 @ Atlanta)
p2 = 0.627 (Home vs Boston, game 1)
p3 = 0.605 (Home vs Boston, game 2)


Numerically for the 2-1 outcome:
(1 − 0.475) × 0.627 × 0.605 = 0.1993
0.475 × (1 − 0.627) × 0.605 = 0.1076
0.475 × 0.627 × (1 − 0.605) = 0.1171
Sum ≈ 42.4%

I like how ESPN can’t even agree with itself. Not favored by there model but yet we’re 3.5 point favorites on espn bet against Atlanta

[jezzerinho]

Hawks vs Magic will be fun watch, no PG in sight

ESPN predictions:

Magic not favored at 47.5% chance to win @Atlanta
Magic favored at 62.7% chance in home-game-1 against Boston
Magic favored at 60.5% chance in home-game-2 against Boston

Many here like the idea of a sweep, but on pure mathematical terms, this is a 18% chance (if one assumes ESPN has good odds).

2-1 is the most likely outcome. Which takes the Magic to 5-5 in the first 10 games. And it's about 60% the Magic go either 3-0 or 2-1. So, more likely than not, a good outcome in these three games.


Sweep 3–0: 0.475 × 0.627 × 0.605 ≈ 18%
Go 2–1: ≈ 42.4%
Go 1–2: ≈ 31.8%
Go 0–3: ≈ 7.7%

For the Maths nerds:
P(2–1) = P(L1 W2 W3) + P(W1 L2 W3) + P(W1 W2 L3)
= (1 – p1) * p2 * p3 + p1 * (1 – p2) * p3 + p1 * p2 * (1 – p3)
where
p1 = 0.475 (Game 1 @ Atlanta)
p2 = 0.627 (Home vs Boston, game 1)
p3 = 0.605 (Home vs Boston, game 2)


Numerically for the 2-1 outcome:
(1 − 0.475) × 0.627 × 0.605 = 0.1993
0.475 × (1 − 0.627) × 0.605 = 0.1076
0.475 × 0.627 × (1 − 0.605) = 0.1171
Sum ≈ 42.4%

I like how ESPN can’t even agree with itself. Not favored by there model but yet we’re 3.5 point favorites on espn bet against Atlanta

So very, very ESPN.

[eyriq]

Hawks vs Magic will be fun watch, no PG in sight

ESPN predictions:

Magic not favored at 47.5% chance to win @Atlanta
Magic favored at 62.7% chance in home-game-1 against Boston
Magic favored at 60.5% chance in home-game-2 against Boston

Many here like the idea of a sweep, but on pure mathematical terms, this is a 18% chance (if one assumes ESPN has good odds).

2-1 is the most likely outcome. Which takes the Magic to 5-5 in the first 10 games. And it's about 60% the Magic go either 3-0 or 2-1. So, more likely than not, a good outcome in these three games.


Sweep 3–0: 0.475 × 0.627 × 0.605 ≈ 18%
Go 2–1: ≈ 42.4%
Go 1–2: ≈ 31.8%
Go 0–3: ≈ 7.7%

For the Maths nerds:
P(2–1) = P(L1 W2 W3) + P(W1 L2 W3) + P(W1 W2 L3)
= (1 – p1) * p2 * p3 + p1 * (1 – p2) * p3 + p1 * p2 * (1 – p3)
where
p1 = 0.475 (Game 1 @ Atlanta)
p2 = 0.627 (Home vs Boston, game 1)
p3 = 0.605 (Home vs Boston, game 2)


Numerically for the 2-1 outcome:
(1 − 0.475) × 0.627 × 0.605 = 0.1993
0.475 × (1 − 0.627) × 0.605 = 0.1076
0.475 × 0.627 × (1 − 0.605) = 0.1171
Sum ≈ 42.4%

I like how ESPN can’t even agree with itself. Not favored by there model but yet we’re 3.5 point favorites on espn bet against Atlanta

Different systems completely

[eyriq]

Model for probability: BPI
Market: Gambling books

[drsd]

I like how ESPN can’t even agree with itself. Not favored by there model but yet we’re 3.5 point favorites on espn bet against Atlanta

ANd-1

Prediction is Orlando at -3.5 for a 112 to 108 win. Nice to see the Magic favored as the road team against a probable playoff squad.

[drsd]

Model for probability: BPI
Market: Gambling books

Orlando has the higher BPI; I guess there is some sort of a home-team lift added in the model. Makes sense as BP is a "neutral court" stat, whatever that means.