2025-26 NBA Season Discussion

[ManuteTheBrute]

.....

[Caneman786]

October 21 Pre-Season Betting Odds and implied probabilities. I will make a post with an update soon.

NBA Finals (Vigorish 20.9%)

1. +240, 24.3% - OKC
2. +550, 12.7% - DEN
3. +750, 9.7% - CLE
4. +900, 8.3% - NYK
5. +1300, 5.9% - MIN
6. +1400, 5.5% - HOU
7. +1600, 4.9% - LAL
8. +1800, 4.4% - ORL
8. +1800, 4.4% - LAC
10. +2500, 3.2% - GSW
11. +3300, 2.4% - DET
12. +3500, 2.3% - DAL
13. +4000, 2.0% - ATL
13. +4000, 2.0% - PHI
15. +5500, 1.5% - MIL
16. +6000, 1.4% - BOS
17. +6600, 1.2% - SAS
18. +10000, 0.8% - IND
18. +10000, 0.8% - TOR
20. +12500, 0.7% - MEM
21. +20000, 0.4% - MIA
22. +30000, 0.3% - NOP
23. +50000, 0.2% - CHI
23. +50000, 0.2% - POR
23. +50000, 0.2% - PHO
23. +50000, 0.2% - SAC
27. +100000, 0.1% - BKN
27. +100000, 0.1% - CHO
27. +100000, 0.1% - UTA
27. +100000, 0.1% - WAS

Over-Unders, West

Seed 1. 62.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - OKC
Seed 2. 53.5 wins, 53.2% Over, 4.3% Vigorish - DEN
Seed 3. 52.5 wins, 47.8% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - HOU
Seed 4. 49.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - MIN
Seed 5. 49.5 wins, 48.9% Over, 4.7% Vigorish - LAC
Seed 6. 47.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - GSW
Seed 7. 46.5 wins, 52.2% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - LAL
Seed 8. 44.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - SAS
Seed 9. 41.5 wins, 53.2% Over, 4.3% Vigorish - DAL
Seed 10. 39.5 wins, 53.2% Over, 4.3% Vigorish - MEM
Seed 11. 35.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - POR
Seed 12. 32.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - SAC
Seed 13. 30.5 wins, 52.2% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - NOP
Seed 13. 30.5 wins, 52.2% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - PHO
Seed 15. 18.5 wins, 54.7% Over, 5.1% Vigorish - UTA

NOTES: HOU has more projected wins than MIN although it has lower title odds.
LAC and GSW have more projected wins than LAL although they both have lower title odds.
SAS has more projected wins than DAL although it has lower title odds.
POR and SAC have more projected wins than NOP although they both have lower title odds.
SAC has more projected wins than PHO although it has lower title odds.

Over-Unders, East

Seed 1. 56.5 wins, 51.1% Over, 4.7% Vigorish - CLE
Seed 2. 53.5 wins, 48.9% Over, 4.7% Vigorish - NYK
Seed 3. 51.5 wins, 51.1% Over, 4.7% Vigorish - ORL
Seed 4. 46.5 wins, 51.1% Over, 4.7% Vigorish - ATL
Seed 5. 46.5 wins, 46.8% Over, 4.3% Vigorish - DET
Seed 6. 43.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - MIL
Seed 7. 43.5 wins, 48.9% Over, 4.7% Vigorish - PHI
Seed 8. 41.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - BOS
Seed 9. 39.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - TOR
Seed 10. 37.5 wins, 52.2% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - MIA
Seed 11. 37.5 wins, 47.8% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - IND
Seed 12. 33.5 wins, 52.2% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - CHI
Seed 13. 27.5 wins, 51.1% Over, 4.7% Vigorish - CHO
Seed 14. 20.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - WAS
Seed 15. 19.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - BKN

NOTES: MIL has more projected wins than PHI although it has lower title odds.
TOR and MIA have more projected wins than IND although they both have lower title odds.

NOTE: Across both the east and west, the odds add up to each team getting an average of 41.1 wins, making this quite precise. An average east team has 39.9 wins while an average west team has 42.3 wins.

Playoffs odds, West

1. -10000, 97.6% chance, 1.4% Vigorish - OKC
2. -5000, 94.3% chance, 3.9% Vigorish - DEN
3. -1600, 90.4% chance, 4.1% Vigorish - HOU
4. -1000, 87.2% chance, 4.2% Vigorish - MIN
5. -450, 78.6% chance, 4.0% Vigorish - LAC
6. -350, 74.5% chance, 4.4% Vigorish - LAL
7. -325, 73.4% chance, 4.2% Vigorish - GSW
8. -175, 60.9% chance, 4.5% Vigorish - SAS
9. -110, 50.0% chance, 4.8% Vigorish - DAL
10. +145, 39.1% chance, 4.5% Vigorish - MEM
11. +350, 21.4% chance, 4.0% Vigorish - POR
12. +425, 18.1% chance, 4.8% Vigorish - SAC
13. +550, 14.8% chance, 4.3% Vigorish - NOP
14. +650, 12.8% chance, 4.2% Vigorish - PHO
15. +3500, 2.7% chance, 1.8% Vigorish - UTA

NOTE: LAL had higher odds to make the playoffs than GSW did despite a lower regular season over-under for wins.
The odds add up to ~816%, which is slightly over the 800% that will actually occur as 8 West teams make the playoffs.

Playoffs odds, East

1. -10000, 95.8% chance, 3.4% Vigorish - CLE
2. -5000, 94.3% chance, 3.9% Vigorish - NYK
3. -2500, 92.0% chance, 4.5% Vigorish - ORL
4. -1000, 83.3% chance, 4.1% Vigorish - ATL
5. -375, 76.0% chance, 3.9% Vigorish - DET
7. -250, 68.2% chance, 4.8% Vigorish - PHI
6. -210, 64.7% chance, 4.8% Vigorish - MIL
8. -165, 59.9% chance, 3.9% Vigorish - BOS
9. +110, 45.3% chance, 5.1% Vigorish - TOR
10. +125, 42.6% chance, 4.4% Vigorish - MIA
10. +125, 42.6% chance, 4.4% Vigorish - IND
12. +400, 19.1% chance, 4.6% Vigorish - CHI
13. +625, 13.2% chance, 4.7% Vigorish - CHO
14. +1600, 5.6% chance, 4.9% Vigorish - WAS
15. +3500, 2.7% chance, 1.8% Vigorish - BKN

NOTE: PHI had higher odds to make the playoffs than MIL did despite a lower regular season over-under for wins.
The odds add up to ~805%, which is slightly over the 800% that will actually occur as 8 East teams make the playoffs.

[bigboi]

Remember this board said that Celtics would be a top seed even without Tatum lmao. Now they prob won’t even make the playoffs. I guarantee if Tatum were playing, Celtics would be one of the best teams in the league. That “elite” supporting cast bs is dead

[falcolombardi]

Remember this board said that Celtics would be a top seed even without Tatum lmao. Now they prob won’t even make the playoffs. I guarantee if Tatum were playing, Celtics would be one of the best teams in the league. That “elite” supporting cast bs is dead

.

Why do you act like tatum is the only player lost from last season celtics?

Why do you act like anyone but maybe some very delusional homer truly thought celtics would be a top team this year?

[bigboi]

Remember this board said that Celtics would be a top seed even without Tatum lmao. Now they prob won’t even make the playoffs. I guarantee if Tatum were playing, Celtics would be one of the best teams in the league. That “elite” supporting cast bs is dead

.

Why do you act like tatum is the only player lost from last season celtics?

Why do you act like anyone but maybe some very delusional homer truly thought celtics would be a top team this year?

With Tatum, this team would still be a top 3 seed. Without Tatum, this team isn’t even a playoff team. No Celtics fan thought this team would be great. It was delusional nba fans who don’t watch games that claimed Celtics are an elite supporting cast that could still make the playoffs without Tatum. Derrick white is a complete bum.

[Special_Puppy]

I will admit I thought the Celtics would be a top 5 seed

[EmpireFalls]

I will admit I thought the Celtics would be a top 5 seed

Derrick White isn’t catching anywhere near enough heat, he’s putting up absolutely ghastly shooting splits and they can’t initiate offense with any guards

His attempts to scale up have gone horrendously

No clue why no one will criticize him for this when people froth at the mouth to hate on players when they struggle to scale down.

[Special_Puppy]

I will admit I thought the Celtics would be a top 5 seed

Derrick White isn’t catching anywhere near enough heat, he’s putting up absolutely ghastly shooting splits and they can’t initiate offense with any guards

His attempts to scale up have gone horrendously

No clue why no one will criticize him for this when people froth at the mouth to hate on players when they struggle to scale down.

This fourm mostly cares about how players perform is placed on a team that has a reasonable chance to win a championship and White has obviously performed well on those great Celtics squads from 2023 to 2025. I would be interested to see how White would perform on a team like the current Warriors which is clearly a great team but not stacked like those Celtics teams were

[Special_Puppy]

What are the odds Ja is still on the Grizzlies on opening night next year?

[ShotCreator]

I will admit I thought the Celtics would be a top 5 seed

They’re not performing poorly. Tough schedule and they rely on the 3 a ton. Their shooters are cold, eventually they’ll be hot. Their defense is decent which matters most.

[Caneman786]

Remember this board said that Celtics would be a top seed even without Tatum lmao. Now they prob won’t even make the playoffs. I guarantee if Tatum were playing, Celtics would be one of the best teams in the league. That “elite” supporting cast bs is dead

.

Why do you act like tatum is the only player lost from last season celtics?

Why do you act like anyone but maybe some very delusional homer truly thought celtics would be a top team this year?

With Tatum, this team would still be a top 3 seed. Without Tatum, this team isn’t even a playoff team. No Celtics fan thought this team would be great. It was delusional nba fans who don’t watch games that claimed Celtics are an elite supporting cast that could still make the playoffs without Tatum. Derrick white is a complete bum.

It'd at least be a top 4 seed if Jrue and Porzingis were still there (as well as if the front office didn't encourage tanking). Tatum is not that good.

Also, Derrick White's shooting will regress to the mean. I'm sure.

[lessthanjake]

I feel like it’s obviously wrong to act like Tatum being out is the only difference between the 2025 Celtics and the 2026 Celtics.

The 2025 Celtics core rotation (i.e. the guys getting consistent playoff minutes) were: Tatum, Brown, White, Holiday, Horford, Pritchard, Porzingis, and Kornet. They’ve lost Tatum. But they’ve also lost Holiday, Horford, Porzingis, and Kornet. When a team loses 5 guys out of their 8-man playoff rotation, they’re going to be a lot worse. Especially when the team did not really try to replace the lost players with anyone positive. The fact that they have a positive net rating so far this year actually is better than one might expect in this situation IMO.

That said, I think if anyone thought they’d be a genuinely good team this year, then that’s probably a result of overrating Jaylen Brown—who I think is very much an empty calories player and far overrated.

[bigboi]

I will admit I thought the Celtics would be a top 5 seed

They’re not performing poorly. Tough schedule and they rely on the 3 a ton. Their shooters are cold, eventually they’ll be hot. Their defense is decent which matters most.

The offense is non existent outside of Brown. Are you trolling here? And Derrick white has become a certified scrub

[bigboi]

.

Why do you act like tatum is the only player lost from last season celtics?

Why do you act like anyone but maybe some very delusional homer truly thought celtics would be a top team this year?

With Tatum, this team would still be a top 3 seed. Without Tatum, this team isn’t even a playoff team. No Celtics fan thought this team would be great. It was delusional nba fans who don’t watch games that claimed Celtics are an elite supporting cast that could still make the playoffs without Tatum. Derrick white is a complete bum.

It'd at least be a top 4 seed if Jrue and Porzingis were still there (as well as if the front office didn't encourage tanking). Tatum is not that good.

Also, Derrick White's shooting will regress to the mean. I'm sure.

flat out don’t know wtf you’re talking about. Porzingis barely played. And Jrue was on the verge of getting benched for Holiday. People like you don’t get it. Tatum is that good. There have only been 2 constants on the Celtics: Brown and Tatum. The coaching staff doesn’t matter, the rest of the supporting cast can be whoever, the Brown and Tatum duo is all that matters. Derrick White is a scrub that was getting hyped up as an all star level talent. Tatum is the reason why any of these players look better than they really are.

[Caneman786]

November 4 (before the nightly games) betting Odds and implied probabilities as per BetMGM. 8.3% through the NBA regular season!

Previous post, pre-season odds linked here: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2473240&start=180#p119965876

All numbers in parenthesis are compared to pre-season betting odds on October 21 linked above.

NBA Finals (Vigorish 20.7%) (down by 0.2%)

1. +225, 25.5% - OKC (+1.2%)
2. +550, 12.7% - DEN (+0.0%)
3. +700, 10.4% - CLE (+0.7%)
4. +1200, 6.4% - NYK (-1.9%)
4. +1200, 6.4% - GSW (+3.2%) (+6 places)
6. +1400, 5.5% - LAL (+0.6%) (+1 place)
7. +1800, 4.4% - HOU (-1.1%) (-1 place)
8. +2000, 3.9% - MIN (-2.0%) (-3 places)
9. +2500, 3.2% - PHI (+1.2%) (+4 places)
9. +2500, 3.2% - LAC (-1.2%) (-2 places)
11. +3000, 2.7% - ORL (-1.7%) (-3 places)
11. +3000, 2.7% - SAS (+1.5%) (+6 places)
13. +4000, 2.0% - MIL (+0.5%) (+2 places)
14. +5000, 1.7% - ATL (-0.3%) (-1 place)
14. +5000, 1.7% - BOS (+0.3%) (+2 places)
14. +5000, 1.7% - DET (-0.7%) (-3 places)
14. +5000, 1.7% - DAL (-0.6%) (-2 places)
18. +10000, 0.8% - CHI (+0.6%) (+5 places)
18. +10000, 0.8% - MIA (+0.4%) (+3 places)
20. +15000, 0.5% - IND (-0.3%) (-2 places)
20. +15000, 0.5% - TOR (-0.3%) (-2 places)
20. +15000, 0.5% - MEM (-0.2%)
23. +30000, 0.3% - NOP (+0.0%) (-1 place)
23. +30000, 0.3% - POR (+0.1%)
25. +50000, 0.2% - CHO (+0.1%) (+2 places)
25. +50000, 0.2% - PHO (+0.0%) (-2 places)
25. +50000, 0.2% - SAC (+0.0%) (-2 places)
28. +100000, 0.1% - BKN (+0.0%) (-1 place)
28. +100000, 0.1% - UTA (+0.0%) (-1 place)
28. +100000, 0.1% - WAS (+0.0%) (-1 place)

Over-Unders, West

Seed 1. 63.5 wins, 53.2% Over, 4.3% Vigorish - OKC (+1 wins)
Seed 2. 53.5 wins, 52.2% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - DEN (+0 wins)
Seed 3. 51.5 wins, 51.1% Over, 4.7% Vigorish - HOU (-1 wins)
Seed 4. 51.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - GSW (+4 wins) (+2 places)
Seed 5. 48.5 wins, 52.2% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - LAL (+2 wins) (+2 places)
Seed 6. 48.5 wins, 48.9% Over, 4.7% Vigorish - MIN (-1 wins) (-2 place)
Seed 7. 47.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - LAC (-2 wins) (-2 places)
Seed 8. 46.5 wins, 47.9% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - SAS (+2 wins)
Seed 9. 39.5 wins, 46.8% Over, 4.3% Vigorish - POR (+4 wins) (+2 places)
Seed 10. 36.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - DAL (-5 wins) (-1 place)
Seed 11. 36.5 wins, 46.8% Over, 4.3% Vigorish - MEM (-3 wins) (-1 place)
Seed 12. 32.5 wins, 46.8% Over, 4.3% Vigorish - SAC (+0 wins)
Seed 13. 29.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - PHO (-1 wins)
Seed 14. 29.5 wins, 48.9% Over, 4.7% Vigorish - NOP (-1 wins) (-1 place)
Seed 15. 22.5 wins, 52.2% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - UTA (+4 wins)

Over-Unders, East

Seed 1. 55.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - CLE (-1 wins)
Seed 2. 51.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - NYK (-2 wins)
Seed 3. 47.5 wins, 46.8% Over, 4.3% Vigorish - ORL (-4 wins)
Seed 4. 46.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - MIL (+3 wins) (+2 places)
Seed 5. 45.5 wins, 52.2% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - DET (-1 wins)
Seed 6. 43.5 wins, 48.9% Over, 4.7% Vigorish - PHI (+0 wins) (-1 place)
Seed 7. 41.5 wins, 52.2% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - BOS (+0 wins) (-1 place)
Seed 7. 41.5 wins, 52.2% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - MIA (+4 wins) (+3 places)
Seed 9. 41.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - ATL (-5 wins) (-5 places)
Seed 10. 41.5 wins, 47.8% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - CHI (+8 wins) (+2 places)
Seed 11. 38.5 wins, 52.2.% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - TOR (-1 wins) (-2 places)
Seed 12. 32.5 wins, 47.8% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - IND (-5 wins) (-1 place)
Seed 13. 31.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - CHO (+4 wins)
Seed 14. 20.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - WAS (+0 wins)
Seed 15. 17.5 wins, 46.8% Over, 4.3% Vigorish - BKN (-2 wins)

Playoffs odds, West

1. -10000, 97.6% chance, 1.4% Vigorish - OKC (+0.0%)
2. -5000, 94.3% chance, 3.9% Vigorish - DEN (+0.0%)
3. -1400, 89.4% chance, 4.4% Vigorish - HOU (-1.0%)
4. -1200, 88.1% chance, 4.8% Vigorish - GSW (+14.7%) (+3 places)
5. -650, 83.3% chance, 4.1% Vigorish - LAL (+8.8%) (+1 place)
6. -500, 79.8% chance, 4.4% Vigorish - MIN (-7.4%) (-2 places)
7. -325, 72.8% chance, 5.0% Vigorish - LAC (-5.8%) (-2 places)
8. -275, 70.4% chance, 4.1% Vigorish - SAS (+9.5%)
9. +175, 34.9% chance, 4.1% Vigorish - POR (+13.5%) (+2 places)
10. +220, 29.9% chance, 4.6% Vigorish - DAL (-20.1%) (-1 place)
11. +300, 24.1% chance, 3.9% Vigorish - MEM (-15.0%) (-1 place)
12. +650, 12.8% chance, 4.2% Vigorish - SAC (-5.3%)
13. +800, 10.6% chance, 4.4% Vigorish - NOP (-4.2%)
14. +900, 9.6% chance, 4.1% Vigorish - PHO (-3.2%)
15. +3000, 3.2% chance, 2/2% Vigorish - UTA (+0.5%)

NOTE: The odds add up to ~801%, lessened quite a bit from two weeks ago.

Playoffs odds, East

1. -10000, 95.8% chance, 3.4% Vigorish - CLE (+0.0%)
2. -5000, 94.3% chance, 3.9% Vigorish - NYK (+0.0%)
3. -550, 80.9% chance, 4.6% Vigorish - ORL (-11.1%)
4. -450, 78.6% chance, 4.0% Vigorish - MIL (+13.9%) (+2 places)
5. -350, 74.5% chance, 4.4% Vigorish - DET (-1.5%)
6. -250, 68.2% chance, 4.8% Vigorish - PHI (+0.0%) (+1 place)
7. -175, 60.9% chance, 4.5% Vigorish - BOS (+1.0%) (+1 place)
8. -160, 59.1% chance, 4.1% Vigorish - MIA (+16.5%) (+2 places)
9. -150, 57.4% chance, 4.4% Vigorish - ATL (-25.9%) (-5 places)
10. -140, 55.6% chance, 4.8% Vigorish - CHI (+36.5%) (+2 places)
11. +110, 45.7% chance, 4.1% Vigorish - TOR (+0.4%) (-2 places)
12. +400, 19.1% chance, 4.6% Vigorish - IND (-23.5%) (-2 places)
13. +425, 18.2% chance, 4.8% Vigorish - CHO (+5.0%)
14. +3000, 3.2% chance, 2.2% Vigorish - WAS (-2.4%)
15. +8000, 1.2% chance, 0.2% Vigorish - BKN (-1.5%)

NOTE:
The odds add up to ~812%, which is slightly over the 800% that will actually occur as 8 East teams make the playoffs.

[lessthanjake]

With Tatum, this team would still be a top 3 seed. Without Tatum, this team isn’t even a playoff team. No Celtics fan thought this team would be great. It was delusional nba fans who don’t watch games that claimed Celtics are an elite supporting cast that could still make the playoffs without Tatum. Derrick white is a complete bum.

It'd at least be a top 4 seed if Jrue and Porzingis were still there (as well as if the front office didn't encourage tanking). Tatum is not that good.

Also, Derrick White's shooting will regress to the mean. I'm sure.

flat out don’t know wtf you’re talking about. Porzingis barely played. And Jrue was on the verge of getting benched for Holiday. People like you don’t get it. Tatum is that good. There have only been 2 constants on the Celtics: Brown and Tatum. The coaching staff doesn’t matter, the rest of the supporting cast can be whoever, the Brown and Tatum duo is all that matters. Derrick White is a scrub that was getting hyped up as an all star level talent. Tatum is the reason why any of these players look better than they really are.

Jrue Holiday was on the verge of getting benched by…himself?

[jalengreen]

Man ajay mitchell has been big for OKC. Second year, second round pick player, considerable role coming off of the bench and especially w/o jdub. Another presti slam dunk

[Jaivl]

Man ajay mitchell has been big for OKC. Second year, second round pick player, considerable role coming off of the bench and especially w/o jdub. Another presti slam dunk

He has to be the draft GOAT, or at the very least the best as far I can remember (even if we didn't pick Mitchell ourselves).

Zero misses, clear vision of the BPA no matter the consensus, tons of late steals. Keen eye for talent.

[eminence]

Man ajay mitchell has been big for OKC. Second year, second round pick player, considerable role coming off of the bench and especially w/o jdub. Another presti slam dunk

He has to be the draft GOAT, or at the very least the best as far I can remember (even if we didn't pick Mitchell ourselves).

Zero misses, clear vision of the BPA no matter the consensus, tons of late steals. Keen eye for talent.

I'll count the Ray Allen for Jeff Green trade as a miss, but that's near two decades gone at this point.

[Special_Puppy]

Man ajay mitchell has been big for OKC. Second year, second round pick player, considerable role coming off of the bench and especially w/o jdub. Another presti slam dunk

He has to be the draft GOAT, or at the very least the best as far I can remember (even if we didn't pick Mitchell ourselves).

Zero misses, clear vision of the BPA no matter the consensus, tons of late steals. Keen eye for talent.

FWIW CraftedNBA did a study on this (although they are not evaluating picks drafted 2021 and beyond which is a massive caveat ) and Presti graded out suprisingly mediocre. https://craftednba.com/draft/gm-study