LA Bird wrote:Doctor MJ wrote:If I'm understanding you correctly, with the trade in question, the new 5-man core of a GOAT level Thunder would be:
Westbrook
Klay
Durant
Draymond
Adams
First question: Is my interpretation of your words correct?
Yeah, that's the team.
Okay, got it.
LA Bird wrote:Second: Do you think others would agree with you? LIke, if we made a poll and asked whether that team would be as good as any team in NBA history, do you think the majority of people would say "Yes"? I think that's unlikely, and so if you think they would say "Yes", we should make such a thread and see what others say.
I think people are too low on Westbrook and your counterargument is to make a poll and see what they have to say about that. Duh, obviously they would disagree with me. If the majority already agreed with me, it wouldn't be necessary for me to write all this about Westbrook.
Okay, I'm glad you can acknowledge that you have a minority view here. Certainly doesn't mean you're wrong.
LA Bird wrote:1. This creates a 5-man roster with only 2 elite shooters in Klay & KD rather than the 3 that the Warriors would have - and of course that 3rd guy on the Warriors is by far the greatest shooter in this history of the sport. So, clearly, shooting would still be a major disadvantage relative to the Warriors.
Shooting being a disadvantage relative to Curry applies to everyone in the history of basketball. Why is Westbrook the only player being targeted with this argument? And considering Westbrook had a +13 postseason offense with just 1 elite shooter, imagine what he could do with 2.
Uh, because you came up with a trade which would result in a team with 3 of the Warriors' 4 players while swapping out Curry for Westbrook. If we're going to compare those two teams with a thought that they would be about as good, it'd be absurd not to deal with the loss of shooting that comes with the swap.
If you'd rather come up with a specific example that isn't tied with the Warriors at all I'm all for it, and if you do, depending on the details, we may not need to talk about Westbrook's shooting limitations that much.
LA Bird wrote:3. I have very specific concerns though about what Draymond is doing out there on offense.
For Draymond to be a truly valuable offensive player, you need to play a scheme that allows him to touch the ball frequently, because his decision making is what makes him good on that end of the floor.
Statistically one way to quantify it is that in both '15-16 & '16-17, Dray led the Warriors in passes made, which - as you'd probably expect - Westbrook led the Thunder in by a large margin.
I don't think there's a question of which of those gets sacrificed on this team - the entire theory is Westbrook's playmaking is good enough to lead a GOAT team after all - so what is Green being used for?
Okay to point out that at his best he was a decent 3-point shooter, but this was true more in a "if you leave him open from there with the ball, he's going to make some" as opposed to a "you can't leave him open off-ball" thing that has gravitational effect.
The original question you put forward was to create a team that would be historically good, not to create a team that would maximize potential synergy of every player. Draymond/Curry is a perfect fit that can't be replicated by anyone else. That's not the question here. What matters is how good the OKC team would be after turning Kanter/Ibaka into Dray/Klay. Draymond won't be the de facto point guard like he was on the Warriors but it doesn't matter since he would still be a huge upgrade over Ibaka as a secondary ball handler and playmaker. And besides, Westbrook's time of possession was 40% of the team's total. Even if you ignore staggered minutes, there's still touches to go around despite Draymond not being as on-ball as he was in GS.
And all this is not to mention the value Draymond brings on the other end where he is the greatest defender of his generation.
I would suggest that if you're not maximizing the synergy of the team, you're not producing an all-time good team. You achieve the latter by strategically building the former. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'll say flat out that if I were an owner and a GM candidate suggested synergy wasn't important, I wouldn't hire him, and if I were a GM and a coaching candidate suggested synergy wasn't important, I wouldn't hire him either.
And while we can disagree on that, perhaps the more useful point is to ask: What does a team optimized for Westbrook look like? However good it is, what should we be trying for?
Re: Dray/Curry fit can't be replicated. Okay, so who would Westbrook synergize with comparably well to the way those two synergize? What does "a Dray for Russ" look like?
Re: Dray wouldn't be de facto point guard but it wouldn't matter because... I can't grant this premise. It would matter because him playing in the scheme he plays in where others provide the spacing is what allows him to be a starter-level offensive player. If you have Green play like a traditional big on offense, he's going to hurt your offense.
Re: Westbrook only 40%, plenty of touches to go around. Dude, we're not talking about slices of pizza here, we're talking about basketball schemes, and you're seeming to refuse to deal with the extreme difference between Dray's role in a read & react system and what it would need to be in a Westbrook helio system.
LA Bird wrote:My fear on a team like this is that the Westbrook-led lineups are going to be best served on offense by replacing Green with someone else... but of course if you do that, the theory of the team falls apart.
This is just hypothetical fear mongering. Best served by "someone else"... exactly who is that? Andre Roberson? Kyle Singler? You think Draymond won't maximize 100% of his potential with Westbrook so it is better to just not play him even though he is far better than anyone else on the team. Where is the logic in that?
"fear mongering" means seeking to disingenuously stoke fear in the minds of the masses.
I'm literally speaking to my own personal sincere fear.
Recognizing they aren't the same thing is important before you start using "fear monger" to wrongly describe your conversation partner.
Re: best served by "someone else", who exactly? Well, in your example you just traded Serge Ibaka for Draymond Green. Ibaka is the better shot blocker, the better shooter, doesn't need decision making primacy on offense, doesn't need teammates to follow his commands on defense, and was absolutely considered the superior prospect and player relative to Green until Green came out of nowhere on Kerr's Warriors.
I think it's worth really not forgetting why it is that Green wasn't drafted in the First Round beyond just saying "he was underrated". Why was he underrated?
In a nutshell my answer would be: It wasn't because they underrated him in the traditional areas that define great defense, nor because they didn't see his BBIQ was high, but because they had no concept of how it could emerge as the best NBA defender of his generation within a scheme that emphasize improvisation and communication.
The fact that none of them - and none of us I expect - saw it coming, makes it all the more interesting and certainly doesn't take away from what Green has achieved, but it does mean that simply slotting Green in as a vastly superior player to Ibaka as if this wasn't scheme dependent contradicts what scouts would have said until Kerr unleashed Green in a shockingly different defense from what was even possible in the past.
Green is a better player than Ibaka because of his brain, despite being less physically talented, so if you acquire him and make less use of his brain, you shouldn't be assuming he's going to improve your team, or even stay as good as it was before.
LA Bird wrote:4. I should note that it's possible you were looking to have a different 5th man rather than Adams. There's a possibility that a different choice would make a lot of sense given that Green is at his best defensively operating behind the defensive front line so that he can see all that's happening and command his teammates to do something smarter than what they'd do on their own.
Do you have the similar concerns about Draymond when he played next to Zaza, McGee or literally any other center?
Zaza played less than 20 MPG in GS and McGee played less than 10 MPG, and this was a continuation of a trend where even a former DPOY candidate level big like Bogut wasn't a Top 5 MPG guy. Why this general trend? Because over and over again during the Warriors championship year, the 5 big minute players were Green and 4 non-centers.
Now to be clear, I'm not saying this was fundamentally driven by defense - I'd say it was mostly about trying to make it so that the lineup was Green and 4 better shooters on offense - but from a perspective of impact, in those Warrior small ball lineups, Green was able to provide absolutely night & day impact by being the guy nearest to the rim despite not being a great shot blocker, and why was that? I'd say it was because it was the perfect place for his vision. The more you make him guard a player out on the perimeter, the more he can't see, and in modern times, if you're not making the defense's 4 play on the perimeter, well, then you probably don't have good enough shooting on your roster.
LA Bird wrote:Has Westbrook ever operated in a defense where he expects to listen to a teammate, stop what he's doing, and do whatever that teammate says? My impression is that prime Westbrook was largely allowed to improvise out there, and the focus of his improvisation was typically about him personally getting the ball through steals and rebounds.
If Westbrook were to continue to play that way with Green, I would suggest this would quite literally chop Green's defensive value down significantly. The value of the smartest defensive player has an awful lot to do with his teammates doing what he tells them, and I don't really see Russ wanting to play that way.
The burden of proof is on you if you want to make this claim. Any evidence of coaches or teammates complaining about this or is it just something you assume because you already have a negative opinion of him?
I'll remind I'm a UCLA fan who was cheering Westbrook on like a good Bruin should before he ever got to the NBA in order to emphasize that the assumption that I began this process with an irrational hatred of Russ and it determined everything I saw after is as wrong as wrong can be.
Doesn't mean I'm not blinded by emotion now, but I can assure everyone that my frustrations with Westbrook began while watching him at OKC because I saw him miss open shooters, saw him look to iso the whole possession with KD right next to him, and I saw him focus on going after the ball on defense in a risky way.
If you didn't see this stuff, I'm not sure what to say. It was there.
But as I say that, my anecdotal frustrations don't mean that the bad outweighed the good. That's what we need the analytics for.
What do the analytics say? Well, for one, that this guy who as Pac 10 DPOY in college - which I believe he deserved to be clear - largely had a negative DRAPM in his career.
I won't say that that's a super unusual thing because plenty of college DPOYs never really make it in the NBA, and with that small sample comes a lot of noise, but mostly I think that if you were an elite defensive player in college, you were an elite athlete by NBA standards, and you had a HOF level career in the NBA, it's pretty unusual for you to come across as a negative RAPM guy.
But as I say that, now I want to do a study and see if that's true or not. Maybe that will prove to be a bad assumption.