HOU - ORL

[Onlytimewilltel]

Reed Sheppard: small, defensively challenged shooting guard who shoots 35.6% from THE FIELD in 292 attempts and shoots 1 free throw every 37 MINUTES. If we forget for a minute he was a #3 pick (and no one should pay for the Rockets' mistake), I don't see how anyone should expect to get back any value in return with him as a centerpiece.

He is shooting 43% threes on 5 per game so far this year. He didn’t really get a chance at all last year if we are being honest and now that FVV is down he’s finally getting some decent playing time off
The bench.

[ThatBoyNick]

I am definitely weary of Reeds short comings, have no idea if he'll ever be a good player

but right now his per 36 average is roughly 18-5-5, with 2 steals and over a 2-1 A/TO ratio on 55% TS, 54% EFG

He's 21 and has only played 800 minutes so far, I'm not saying anybody should be valuing him highly but he's not a complete Anthony Bennett right now, he's showing some flashes and improvements.

As for the OP proposal, yes that seems off, Hou would definitely owe at least one high potential pick imo, but even then Magic probably shouldn't be interested.

[jbk1234]

Can you walk me through your logic, OP?

FVV is dead money this year, which makes him a negative value contract no matter how you slice and dice the details.
Capela is neutral.
Sheppard probably has some positive value, but he is making more than TMLE for a player who isn't rotation-caliber in any capacity and is horrific inside the 3-point line (31.6% on 2P FGA is historically bad). He can't really be a 3+D POA guard since he lacks size/strength/quickness to stay in front of ball-handlers, and his size makes him an easy target for any offensive attack.

Meanwhile, Suggs, in limited minutes, has been terrific. The injury is going to hang over his head, and he will have a slow ramp-up period through December and into 2026, but his ceiling this year and over the next 2-3 years is still far greater than what a returning FVV and Reed will be.

- FVV is dead money like Haliburton is dead money, sure for this year, doesn't mean there isn't a valuable player waiting there.
- Capela is a positive contributor on a great contract, and better than WCJ, while cheaper.
- Sheppard is currently a rotation player for the #1 SRS team in the league. And his value isn't who he is, it is who he could become.

Suggs is currently the best player in the deal, but is similar in caliber to FVV, although more expensive and younger. If FVV wasn't injured, Houston would not consider this deal.

Capela is mostly washed and has been for multiple seasons. He didn't sign for $10M per with the Rockets because he wanted to give them a great deal, he signed with the Rockets because no one else was going to pay him that much.

FVV is not dead money like Haliburton is dead money. FVV has never and will never be as good as Haliburton. He's undersized, old, and getting older. There's no guarantee FVV will be a replacement level starter when he returns from injury. The Rockets trade partner would have to pay him to find out. Houston couldn't trade FVV and Capela for pure cap space.

You're offering negative filler and Reed, who presently doesn't project to be a full time starter, for Suggs. Everyone is telling you it's not a serious offer.

[LarsV8]

Capela is mostly washed and has been for multiple seasons. He didn't sign for $10M per with the Rockets because he wanted to give them a great deal, he signed with the Rockets because no one else was going to pay him that much.

FVV is not dead money like Haliburton is dead money. FVV has never and will never be as good as Haliburton. He's undersized, old, and getting older. There's no guarantee FVV will be a replacement level starter when he returns from injury. The Rockets trade partner would have to pay him to find out. Houston couldn't trade FVV and Capela for pure cap space.

You're offering negative filler and Reed, who presently doesn't project to be a full time starter, for Suggs. Everyone is telling you it's not a serious offer.

Clint Capela is washed.....yet somehow posting career efficiency numbers.

Spoiler:

Regarding FVV injury, it's not 20 years ago, an ACL is a major injury, but is more of a setback now adays than career altering. So no, FVV is not deadweight, outside of this year. I can point to our own Steven Adams trade from Memphis 2 years back. He was out the whole season, we traded for him anyway, for positive value, and are enjoying the benefits today.

"Reed, who presently doesn't project to be a full time starter"

A 21 year old prospect, who has played 60 total games in the NBA, currently averaging 20 mpg on the number 1 SRS team in the league....

That is not how prospects work. Consistency will not be there for young players, but flashes will, and Reed has shown plenty of flashes.

[Ducklett]

I would do this if there was tons of 1sts involved because the Magic wasted all theirs on Bane

[redslastlaugh]

This is a really unattractive offer from Orlando's side. If Reed Sheppard takes a big step over the course of the year and looks like his trajectory is to someday be an allstar but YEARS from now and Houston has a chance for ring right now so they're willing to trade future upside for present physicality... maybe in that circumstance Orlando might be interested after the season's end...

But as it stands right now, there is nothing appealing about this offer for the Magic.

Suggs / Howard
for
FVV / Sheppard / Capela

Orlando is struggling w/ underperforming big men and shooting, and perhaps just mismatched pieces. FVV helped Houston tremendously by getting organized and teaching them how to play correctly, and he can do the same for Orlando, once back from injury. Reed has tremendous upside and can help space the floor, if they continue with Banchero being the offensive hub. Capela is an upgrade at the Center position, and is relatively cheap.

Houston title odds took a hit with the FVV injury, which hurts, as we don't know how long Durant will continue being Durant. With the Rockets looking outstanding this year, they should look to plug potential weaknesses, including POA defense. Suggs provides alot of what they need in defense. His contract is also descending, which will help with Houston's future commitments to Amen Thompson and Tari Eason.

(Yes, I know FVV has an implied NTC, we will assume he waives it)

[jbk1234]

Capela is mostly washed and has been for multiple seasons. He didn't sign for $10M per with the Rockets because he wanted to give them a great deal, he signed with the Rockets because no one else was going to pay him that much.

FVV is not dead money like Haliburton is dead money. FVV has never and will never be as good as Haliburton. He's undersized, old, and getting older. There's no guarantee FVV will be a replacement level starter when he returns from injury. The Rockets trade partner would have to pay him to find out. Houston couldn't trade FVV and Capela for pure cap space.

You're offering negative filler and Reed, who presently doesn't project to be a full time starter, for Suggs. Everyone is telling you it's not a serious offer.

Clint Capela is washed.....yet somehow posting career efficiency numbers.

Spoiler:

Regarding FVV injury, it's not 20 years ago, an ACL is a major injury, but is more of a setback now adays than career altering. So no, FVV is not deadweight, outside of this year. I can point to our own Steven Adams trade from Memphis 2 years back. He was out the whole season, we traded for him anyway, for positive value, and are enjoying the benefits today.

"Reed, who presently doesn't project to be a full time starter"

A 21 year old prospect, who has played 60 total games in the NBA, currently averaging 20 mpg on the number 1 SRS team in the league....

That is not how prospects work. Consistency will not be there for young players, but flashes will, and Reed has shown plenty of flashes.

Using stats from this season is questionable 20 games in. Using them before 10 games is worthless, but if you want to use them, yes Capela is very efficient scoring 4.6 ppg in the 10 mpg he plays. Of course, the Rockets are 4.8 ppg better when he's off the court than out it.

[Xman]

Rockets have been hunting 3&D.

Hou gets Suggs
Orl gets Ja and Reed.
Memphis gets Vleet, Isaac and second best of 2027&2029 rockets firsts.

Orlando reunites Ja and Bane.
Memphis gets even more picks.

[Skybox]

Rockets have been hunting 3&D.

Hou gets Suggs
Orl gets Ja and Reed.
Memphis gets Vleet, Isaac and second best of 2027&2029 rockets firsts.

Orlando reunites Ja and Bane.
Memphis gets even more picks.

much better from ORL perspective...Reed is probably an overpay now-maybe he goes to MEM.

Suggs for Ja is a reasonable basis for a move, FVV isn't at this point.

[LarsV8]

Pass on that, too expensive.

[Patsfan1081]

Can you walk me through your logic, OP?

FVV is dead money this year, which makes him a negative value contract no matter how you slice and dice the details.
Capela is neutral.
Sheppard probably has some positive value, but he is making more than TMLE for a player who isn't rotation-caliber in any capacity and is horrific inside the 3-point line (31.6% on 2P FGA is historically bad). He can't really be a 3+D POA guard since he lacks size/strength/quickness to stay in front of ball-handlers, and his size makes him an easy target for any offensive attack.

Meanwhile, Suggs, in limited minutes, has been terrific. The injury is going to hang over his head, and he will have a slow ramp-up period through December and into 2026, but his ceiling this year and over the next 2-3 years is still far greater than what a returning FVV and Reed will be.

- FVV is dead money like Haliburton is dead money, sure for this year, doesn't mean there isn't a valuable player waiting there.
- Capela is a positive contributor on a great contract, and better than WCJ, while cheaper.
- Sheppard is currently a rotation player for the #1 SRS team in the league. And his value isn't who he is, it is who he could become.

Suggs is currently the best player in the deal, but is similar in caliber to FVV, although more expensive and younger. If FVV wasn't injured, Houston would not consider this deal.

I don’t see the similarities. Hali is a star locked in, FVV
will be playing out his player option next year and even before the injury was coming off a down year. The value between the two is night and day. I don’t see Orlando enticed by the idea of trading for a player in hopes he looks good coming off a injury in a contract year.