Ivey and Duren Extensions

[whitehops]

Right now Detroit has the #3 defense in the league behind only OKC and San Antonio. It's going to be hard to crap on Duren too much about his defense if we remain in the top 3 this season.

Side note: It'll also be interesting to see how much the defense falls off once Ivey is back in the rotation.

i want to give him the opportunity to show us before making claims but i think there will definitely be a transition period both defensively and offensively when he comes back. right now on offense cade and ausar have very clear roles and it seems to be working decently well. it'll be interesting to see what the rotation alone looks like when him and tobias get back.

[VicVinegar]

I don't think Duren gets $30 mil per, but maybe $20-25 mil per. Same with Ivey if he comes back playing like he should. Harris be lucky to get 3 years $75 mil. I would be happy with 3 years $60 mil tho. No other team would probably offer more than that.

a 34 year old Tobias Harris is not getting 3x $20M. He's probably a MLE guy on a 1-2 year deal.

Alot of players get 3 year contracts lately in their old age. I hope he gets 2 year $20-25 with a 3rd year team option on a declining contract like give him $25mil first year etc.

No, not really. Those are usually all star players. In fact the only forwards in the league currently that signed a contract after age 33 are Lebron, Durant, Butler, Draymond, and Derozan. Derozan and Draymond make $25M a year, and I don't think 13 PPG Tobias is getting Derozan money.

[DetroitSho]

Sometimes an extremely high price is worth paying.

Just making sure we're clear on that. Look what the Grizzlies just got for Bane. Even if you consider that an overpay (and I do), that's probably the starting point in terms of speculating on possible prices given JJJ is a lot more valuable than Bane.

Now subtract the difference in their contract situations and Orlando's desperation to add a player of Bane's skillset (a desperation we don't have) and I'd say the Bane deal would be the ceiling we'd need to go.

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Do you consider JJJ’s contract to be significantly worse than Bane’s?

Not significantly worse, not at all. I like how you threw that in there tho. BUUUUUT, when you consider JJJ's is longer and he's way more injury prone, the value you get from the two on basis on contract comes close to evening out.

JJJ's defensive value clearly tips the scale. But his injuries and rebounding allergies (which wouldn't matter as much next to Duren) cuts into that value. And Bane's secondary ballhandling/playmaking and ability to just flat out score helps to bridge the gap between the two.

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[DetroitSho]

Right now Detroit has the #3 defense in the league behind only OKC and San Antonio. It's going to be hard to crap on Duren too much about his defense if we remain in the top 3 this season.

Side note: It'll also be interesting to see how much the defense falls off once Ivey is back in the rotation.

Yeah trying to fill the shoes of that defensive witch Duncan Robinson in the starting lineup is going to be a tough hill to climb. As well as trying to duplicate the lead guard off the bench defensive chops of Caris Levert. SHEESH!!!

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[DetroitSho]

I don't think Duren gets $30 mil per, but maybe $20-25 mil per. Same with Ivey if he comes back playing like he should. Harris be lucky to get 3 years $75 mil. I would be happy with 3 years $60 mil tho. No other team would probably offer more than that.

a 34 year old Tobias Harris is not getting 3x $20M. He's probably a MLE guy on a 1-2 year deal.

Alot of players get 3 year contracts lately in their old age. I hope he gets 2 year $20-25 with a 3rd year team option on a declining contract like give him $25mil first year etc.

Bro people pizzed and moaned about $26 mil per for 2 years for 32 year old Tobias. You think he's still going to be making the same money 2 injury prone years later?

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[bstein14]

Another thing to keep an eye on… if we can remain a top two team in the East people will start to say we deserve two all-stars. Durens raw numbers will make him the logical choice for most casual fans and casual reporters, etc. just having his name in the conversation could elevate his big summer payday.

[bstein14]

Also, Duren is currently 7th in the NBA in PER with guys like Wemby, Jokic, Giannis, SGA and Luka ahead of him.

[VicVinegar]

The Duren detractors on the board have been awfully quiet recently. He has his flaws like any player but there's no denying his importance to our winning team currently.

Dude, it's tunnel vision on these boards. People expect guys to be flawless by 20 years old. Duren is 21 for crying out loud. The fact that people don't understand that players can learn and develop and put in work is insane. I mean how many examples do we need?

"Cade isn't a fit at PG and isn't worth the max" - Flash forward a year later and we're chanting MVP and he's one of the top 3 assist guys in the league.

"Holland was such a redundant, reach of a pick." Less than a season later "HOLLAND GOT THAT DAWG IN HIM!!!"

"Duren is a dime a dozen player, we should trade him, and I'm weary of extending him" ... "Duren is a big part of this team's future!"

It's why I'm so tired of the Ivey hate. Why? Why have we given up on a guy at 23 who shows flashes and already showed improvement last year. I'm not even saying he's going to be great, but why can't we at least hope he is good and see how things pan out instead of actively rooting against the guy? Thank goodness none of y'all are the Pistons' management or you would have traded away our core for some late first round picks or aging vets.

I know we've all been burned by the Killian Hayes's of the world, but at least our young guys show potential. Killian never ever showed that, despite given every opportunity. I get that people want to win, and yes we can easily get better TODAY by trading Duren/Ivey/Ausar/Holland for a proven player. But big picture, if we can continue to develop those guys, who have all in some way shown a high ceiling, I mean we're talking about potentially having a core that's deadly for 5+ years, even if 1-2 of them don't pan out or are bench guys. Thankfully I think Pistons' ownership sees that bigger picture.

Cade 24
Stew 24
Ivey 23
Ausar 22
Duren 21
Ron 20

The future is bright. Trust the process.

[BadMofoPimp]

a 34 year old Tobias Harris is not getting 3x $20M. He's probably a MLE guy on a 1-2 year deal.

Alot of players get 3 year contracts lately in their old age. I hope he gets 2 year $20-25 with a 3rd year team option on a declining contract like give him $25mil first year etc.

Bro people pizzed and moaned about $26 mil per for 2 years for 32 year old Tobias. You think he's still going to be making the same money 2 injury prone years later?

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If he has a year like last year, I would be willing to gamble or maybe he takes a 1 year deal or a descending deal cheaper. Let Holland start in his place otherwise.

[DetroitSho]

Alot of players get 3 year contracts lately in their old age. I hope he gets 2 year $20-25 with a 3rd year team option on a declining contract like give him $25mil first year etc.

Bro people pizzed and moaned about $26 mil per for 2 years for 32 year old Tobias. You think he's still going to be making the same money 2 injury prone years later?

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If he has a year like last year, I would be willing to gamble or maybe he takes a 1 year deal or a descending deal cheaper. Let Holland start in his place otherwise.

But there's literally no reason to even give him that type of money. Who else is giving him that money next summer? He's looking at basically MLE/Levert money, 2 years $28-30 million TOTAL. Which is cool, because even tho it'll be MLE money it wouldn't need to be our actual MLE.

That's another reason I hope Beasley comes back this year because we can still offer him that $7.2 million for this season (prorated the rest of the season) and then offer him a contract starting around $13 million next summer, all without using the MLE.

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[Mr Peanut]

Right now Detroit has the #3 defense in the league behind only OKC and San Antonio. It's going to be hard to crap on Duren too much about his defense if we remain in the top 3 this season.

Side note: It'll also be interesting to see how much the defense falls off once Ivey is back in the rotation.

We also have the best rim defensive field goal percentage this season by quite a margin - we are at 52.2% and then it's Minnesota at 59.4% and Orlando at 59.5%.

Obviously Stew is a big factor in that but with Duren playing 26mpg at C he has to get his credit too.

[Kalamazoo317]

Right now Detroit has the #3 defense in the league behind only OKC and San Antonio. It's going to be hard to crap on Duren too much about his defense if we remain in the top 3 this season.

Side note: It'll also be interesting to see how much the defense falls off once Ivey is back in the rotation.

i want to give him the opportunity to show us before making claims but i think there will definitely be a transition period both defensively and offensively when he comes back. right now on offense cade and ausar have very clear roles and it seems to be working decently well. it'll be interesting to see what the rotation alone looks like when him and tobias get back.

I've been very critical of Ivey in the past (because he's deserved it) but:

1. There's no reason to believe he can't improve (limiting turnovers, improving defensive awareness, improving as a finisher would all help)
2. We certainly need offense more than defense right now, so it's easy to see his having a role on the team as constructed
3. If his improvement as a shooter last season was real, his spacing could be really valuable for the team

He obviously has some talents, he just has important areas in his game that he *needs* to improve to be a winning player longterm.

[bstein14]

Right now Detroit has the #3 defense in the league behind only OKC and San Antonio. It's going to be hard to crap on Duren too much about his defense if we remain in the top 3 this season.

Side note: It'll also be interesting to see how much the defense falls off once Ivey is back in the rotation.

i want to give him the opportunity to show us before making claims but i think there will definitely be a transition period both defensively and offensively when he comes back. right now on offense cade and ausar have very clear roles and it seems to be working decently well. it'll be interesting to see what the rotation alone looks like when him and tobias get back.

I've been very critical of Ivey in the past (because he's deserved it) but:

1. There's no reason to believe he can't improve (limiting turnovers, improving defensive awareness, improving as a finisher would all help)
2. We certainly need offense more than defense right now, so it's easy to see his having a role on the team as constructed
3. If his improvement as a shooter last season was real, his spacing could be really valuable for the team

He obviously has some talents, he just has important areas in his game that he *needs* to improve to be a winning player longterm.

I think Ivey can certainly help us... but I also think coming back from such a long time off its likely he's better off being a 7th or 8th man instead of starting an being a 2nd or 3rd option.... then you hope he gets better and better and starts to work himself up the ladder.

I think just giving him the #2 option and highest amount of shots will be a mistake.

[TPA]

Just a reminder, Duren was always going to get 20+. And if he keeps up this level of play, he's looking at 30+.
Today, he is 21 years old. If not Detroit, some other team.

[tmorgan]

Just a reminder, Duren was always going to get 20+. And if he keeps up this level of play, he's looking at 30+.
Today, he is 21 years old. If not Detroit, some other team.

Almost no one had a problem with 20. He wanted 30. He plays like this all year — and against good teams — he may get 30. But the reason he wasn’t extended was because his number didn’t fit his production.

[TPA]

Just a reminder, Duren was always going to get 20+. And if he keeps up this level of play, he's looking at 30+.
Today, he is 21 years old. If not Detroit, some other team.

Almost no one had a problem with 20. He wanted 30. He plays like this all year — and against good teams — he may get 30. But the reason he wasn’t extended was because his number didn’t fit his production.

Cool.
Some people at the beginning of this thread were arguing whether he was worth even 20 million back in July...

[DetroitSho]

For Duren it's likely something around Claxton money (4yrs, 100 million).

I know I've harped on this, but Duren is unambiguously worth nowhere near Claxton money at this point. Sorry for the incoming wall of text (I have a lot to say, as you've probably noticed by now ). I'm not saying any of this to lecture; it's just that a lot of the talk about Duren often leaves me feeling like the harsh landscape for traditional centers in today's league is very underappreciated.

Defense is priority #1 for traditional centers given how deeply limited they are on offense. Every single traditional center paid more than 5% of the cap (all the way down to Bitadze) is at the very least a solid defender. There isn't a single traditional big paid more than $15 million who isn't a genuinely GOOD defender. Duren is a genuinely bad defender, which makes his value equation very unfavorable.

Very few traditional bigs are paid any significant amount of money, and even the highest paid of them -- Gobert, the one and only traditional big set to be paid $30m+ next season -- come in at far less than the league's truly skilled offensive bigs receive. No team wants to hitch its wagon to a traditional center who isn't good at traditional center things (especially defense), let alone to pay big money to a player like that.

Claxton's salary would tie Duren for third highest-paid traditional center in the league next season despite the impossibility of him being a viable postseason center unless his defense takes a giant leap the likes of which pretty much nobody who's as poor at the mental aspect of defense after three big-minute seasons as he is has ever taken.

This post is........well it's a post. After tonight's game it's just pretty ironic.

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[DetroitSho]

Just a reminder, Duren was always going to get 20+. And if he keeps up this level of play, he's looking at 30+.
Today, he is 21 years old. If not Detroit, some other team.

Almost no one had a problem with 20. He wanted 30. He plays like this all year — and against good teams — he may get 30. But the reason he wasn’t extended was because his number didn’t fit his production.

Cool.
Some people at the beginning of this thread were arguing whether he was worth even 20 million back in July...

I just went back and read. You're absolutely right.

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[TPA]

It may not be but teams set the market. TL shouldn't try to lowball him based on strictly shooting

What about shooting and defense?

At that point it's not lowballing. It's a realistic assessment of the value of a center who doesn't spread the floor or defend well. And that's not a lot.

And for me it's really more about the defense. I value spacing a lot, but it can be gotten from other positions. Offensively Duren is more or less what I'd want from a big man who's playing with a ball handler like Cade. They're very effective in 2 man action. But his defense just isn't good enough.

So what's everyone's price that they're willing to walk away from the table, TODAY, to retain Duran? 20 Mil? 25 Mil? 15 Mil?
I think 22.5-25 is reasonable. If TL wants to see more before making an offer, I'd be cool with that, but I think JD is taking a risk betting on himself @ >$25m. Seems like a few of you know for certain though...
I remember 80% of people on the board complaining about how toxic Stewart's contract would be less than two years ago. How are we feeling about that now?

It's this. Duren flashed a lot of the ability that he's shown last year (more consistently THIS year), toward the end of the 24-25 season. The effort and improvement have been well documented, even if the results weren't consistent enough for a deep playoff run last season. Pretending like the guy (age 21) wasn't going to progress with experience, and as the culture was building around him...

[tmorgan]

If he plays next game, the shell of Embiid that’s left will be a test for Duren. He’s still an insane foul baiter and tricky offensive player.

His defense, however, has badly regressed. He can’t move laterally at all and is afraid to jump on defense. Duren should maul him on the glass.