Weird Standings, Which teams would rise/fade after 30 games?

[RHODEY]

Pistons probably won't remain the #1 seed (I see the Cavs there), but will be near the top. They've already had a reasonable amount of injury trouble to key guys but still continue to roll through. I find it humorous when people assume NY will come out ahead - there's a large faction of fans that realize if Detroit was fully healthy in last season's playoffs, as well as getting the correct foul call at the end of the game 4, that they likely would've won the series. And so far this season it looks like Cade/Duren/Ausar/Stew/Holland have all taken another step forward.

Chicago will drop but wouldn't be surprised to see them in the 6th seed range. Orlando should improve.

We realize. that.But Do you realize NY still won in 6 by mostly playing starter heavy minutes ? They also added seriously depth and have a coach now who nows how to utilize it. They have also improved as a team.

I like Detroit but I don't see them as quite on NY's level. Mainly because there is no true 2nd option and the loss of both Beasley, Schroeder, and Hardaway ( players that gave NY fits) is underrated.

[cupcakesnake]

Teams that are statistically (SRS) better than their record:
New York, Miami, Toronto, Houston, Denver, Portland, Boston, Minnesota

Teams that are statistically worse than their record:
Milwaukee, Phili, Lakers, Phoenix

Teams that should obviously be capable of playing better than they have so far:
Orlando, Clippers, Grizzlies, Warriors, Hawks

Teams most likely to come back to earth (but maybe they wont!):
Chicago, Detroit

[GiannisAnte34]

76ers have had a cupcake schedule so far and getting quality minutes out of Embiid, pretty sure Embiid will gas out as the season goes on

also Maxey averaging 40 minutes+ per game is not sustainable

[cupcakesnake]

Pistons probably won't remain the #1 seed (I see the Cavs there), but will be near the top. They've already had a reasonable amount of injury trouble to key guys but still continue to roll through. I find it humorous when people assume NY will come out ahead - there's a large faction of fans that realize if Detroit was fully healthy in last season's playoffs, as well as getting the correct foul call at the end of the game 4, that they likely would've won the series. And so far this season it looks like Cade/Duren/Ausar/Stew/Holland have all taken another step forward.

Chicago will drop but wouldn't be surprised to see them in the 6th seed range. Orlando should improve.

We realize. that.But Do you realize NY still won in 6 by mostly playing starter heavy minutes ? They also added seriously depth and have a coach now who nows how to utilize it. They have also improved as a team.

I like Detroit but I don't see them as quite on NY's level. Mainly because there is no true 2nd option and the loss of both Beasley, Schroeder, and Hardaway ( players that gave NY fits) is underrated.

I don't think Detroit will ever sniff New York on offense but Detroit's actual advantage is on defense. The defensive versatility they get out of Ausar/Cade/BeefStew/Duren is super strong. They put out really big, really versatile defensive lineups that can switch and has multiple sources of rim protection. They force turnovers (5th in the league) and force tough shots (#1 in opponent eFG%).

New York will always have a big fat Brunson/KAT pick & roll to attack, even if they nail everything else though. New York's offensive potential though, is amongst the very best in the league.

I actually like the matchup for Detroit, but New York managed to survive them last year. I felt Detroit made some clear tactical errors guarding KAT. OG Anunoby can turn Cade off almost entirely, but it's not that hard to get a switch, and Cade abused Mikal and the other Knicks defenders.

[cupcakesnake]

76ers have had a cupcake schedule so far and getting quality minutes out of Embiid, pretty sure Embiid will gas out as the season goes on

also Maxey averaging 40 minutes+ per game is not sustainable

Phili is for sure a house of cards. Embiid is already playing on fumes and it's sad to see.

That being said, the team is better equipped to solid this year, and compete night to night. I don't see them continuing to play at a 60-win pace, but I think they'll be fighting for playoff/play-in seeding.

[bisme37]

I noticed Knicks are 5-0 at home but 0-3 on the road.

That's my post.

[Mr Peanut]

there's a large faction of fans that realize if Detroit was fully healthy in last season's playoffs, as well as getting the correct foul call at the end of the game 4, that they likely would've won the series.

This is hook, line, and sinker of a jb lead team. Every year there is some "what if" in the post season of what the outcome could've been.

Strange comment, but obviously fuelled by disdain for JB. Both bad refereeing and untimely injuries are out of the control of a coach.

We realize. that.But Do you realize NY still won in 6 by mostly playing starter heavy minutes ? They also added seriously depth and have a coach now who nows how to utilize it. They have also improved as a team.

I like Detroit but I don't see them as quite on NY's level. Mainly because there is no true 2nd option and the loss of both Beasley, Schroeder, and Hardaway ( players that gave NY fits) is underrated.

I can appreciate NY has made improvements too. And while Schroder is a loss, Hardaway was a neutral player at best in that series (he gave up as much on defense as he got on offense). Beasley wasn't very good in the NY series although overall he was important to the Pistons (there is a still a small chance he may be able to sign with us again at some point this season). We also did pickup Duncan Robinson and Caris LeVert and should have a healthy Jaden Ivey eventually.

New York may still end up beating the Pistons in a series, but I just don't see them as clearly in a different tier based on last season's playoffs and the improvements both teams have made since. Time will tell I guess.

[RHODEY]

there's a large faction of fans that realize if Detroit was fully healthy in last season's playoffs, as well as getting the correct foul call at the end of the game 4, that they likely would've won the series.

This is hook, line, and sinker of a jb lead team. Every year there is some "what if" in the post season of what the outcome could've been.

Strange comment, but obviously fuelled by disdain for JB. Both bad refereeing and untimely injuries are out of the control of a coach.

We realize. that.But Do you realize NY still won in 6 by mostly playing starter heavy minutes ? They also added seriously depth and have a coach now who nows how to utilize it. They have also improved as a team.

I like Detroit but I don't see them as quite on NY's level. Mainly because there is no true 2nd option and the loss of both Beasley, Schroeder, and Hardaway ( players that gave NY fits) is underrated.

I can appreciate NY has made improvements too. And while Schroder is a loss, Hardaway was a neutral player at best in that series (he gave up as much on defense as he got on offense). Beasley wasn't very good in the NY series although overall he was important to the Pistons (there is a still a small chance he may be able to sign with us again at some point this season). We also did pickup Duncan Robinson and Caris LeVert and should have a healthy Jaden Ivey eventually.

New York may still end up beating the Pistons in a series, but I just don't see them as clearly in a different tier based on last season's playoffs and the improvements both teams have made since. Time will tell I guess.

To me its obvious, but sure time will tell.

[RAPSinCAPS]

The Raptors are the most confusing team to me. They're very Jekyll and Hyde. Barnes is actually shooting the lights out this season so far so you'd figure they'd be better than they are. They have a top 10 defense despite somehow allowing that historically putrid Mavs offense to score 139 on them. It's probably not going to still be top 10 after allowing 130 in their loss to Philly tonight.

Yeah but when we're on we can beat anybody. Especially the long athletic teams that everyone's afraid of

[Patches Perry]

I was curious, so I created this spreadsheet. It's basically current projected wins based on current win percentage compared against their preseason projections.

These kind of confirm a lot of the sentiments expressed about overachieving and underachieving teams so far. Chicago and Portland are probably the biggest surprises for me on the top end. Orlando and LAC on the bottom.

[tmorgan]

Detroit is not winning 64 games. Lovely sentiment, though. Our offense isn’t good enough for that.

[Patches Perry]

Detroit is not winning 64 games. Lovely sentiment, though. Our offense isn’t good enough for that.

Yeah, if they lose today, that'd drop to 57 projected wins. So we're definitely still in small sample size territory, but they're playing good basketball.

[JujitsuFlip]

Detroit is not winning 64 games. Lovely sentiment, though. Our offense isn’t good enough for that.

Yeah, if they lose today, that'd drop to 57 projected wins. So we're definitely still in small sample size territory, but they're playing good basketball.

That method isn't very good, considering it's just taking the current sample size and extrapolating it over an 82 game season.

The issue with that is its not taking into account level of competition or those "schedule losses".

[Patches Perry]

Detroit is not winning 64 games. Lovely sentiment, though. Our offense isn’t good enough for that.

Yeah, if they lose today, that'd drop to 57 projected wins. So we're definitely still in small sample size territory, but they're playing good basketball.

That method isn't very good, considering it's just taking the current sample size and extrapolating it over an 82 game season.

The issue with that is its not taking into account level of competition or those "schedule losses".

Sure, and I'd argue even factoring SOS doesn't factor injuries or just other small sample size noise. But it's all we've got so far and I didn't want to spend more than 15 minutes. No big deal if you didn't get anything from it.

[Syd-TK3]

I personally think the Bulls run is fake rn and they'll drop back to being a playin team.
Im tempted to say detroit is too because of the easy schedule but I love Cade and their defense is pretty legit

[Mr Peanut]

I personally think the Bulls run is fake rn and they'll drop back to being a playin team.
Im tempted to say detroit is too because of the easy schedule but I love Cade and their defense is pretty legit

The Pistons are yet to face a lot of the top West teams, but I'm not sure I'd describe their schedule as "easy". They've played 4/10 of their games against teams .500 or above (2-2 in those) and 6/10 against teams below .500 (6-0). Only 4/10 of their games have been played in Detroit. Their SOS so far ranks as 15th in the league so bang on average, although it's early days so some teams' records will be over or underinflated.

Also should be noted their remaining strength of schedule over the next 70 games is .477, tied at easiest in the league along with the Bulls and Raptors (again, subject to change given the small sample size so far this season).

[JujitsuFlip]

I personally think the Bulls run is fake rn and they'll drop back to being a playin team.
Im tempted to say detroit is too because of the easy schedule but I love Cade and their defense is pretty legit

The Pistons are yet to face a lot of the top West teams, but I'm not sure I'd describe their schedule as "easy". They've played 4/10 of their games against teams .500 or above (2-2 in those) and 6/10 against teams below .500 (6-0). Only 4/10 of their games have been played in Detroit. Their SOS so far ranks as 15th in the league so bang on average, although it's early days so some teams' records will be over or underinflated.

Also should be noted their remaining strength of schedule over the next 70 games is .477, tied at easiest in the league along with the Bulls and Raptors (again, subject to change given the small sample size so far this season).

February 23rd through March 5th is probably their toughest stretch.

March 20th through April 8th is pretty tough too.

[The Servant]

The Raptors are the most confusing team to me. They're very Jekyll and Hyde. Barnes is actually shooting the lights out this season so far so you'd figure they'd be better than they are. They have a top 10 defense despite somehow allowing that historically putrid Mavs offense to score 139 on them. It's probably not going to still be top 10 after allowing 130 in their loss to Philly tonight.

Yeah but when we're on we can beat anybody. Especially the long athletic teams that everyone's afraid of

"When we're on we can beat anybody"

Breh, you guys are 5 - 5, with Brandon Ingram already melting down:

https://youtube.com/shorts/bjAEr5CFYk8?si=58lI_UylsAtnab39

This isn't an amazing team that can beat anyone when they're on to me. They're treadmill with a log jam at the Wing. Why did they trade Siakam to replace him with Ingram?

I know the players are doing better than expected but the whole of the team is not greater than its parts, if you feel me. They may figure it out this year but I got them as play in material, maybe 40 wins?

[oldncreaky]

The Raptors are the most confusing team to me. They're very Jekyll and Hyde. Barnes is actually shooting the lights out this season so far so you'd figure they'd be better than they are. They have a top 10 defense despite somehow allowing that historically putrid Mavs offense to score 139 on them. It's probably not going to still be top 10 after allowing 130 in their loss to Philly tonight.

Yeah but when we're on we can beat anybody. Especially the long athletic teams that everyone's afraid of

"When we're on we can beat anybody"

Breh, you guys are 5 - 5, with Brandon Ingram already melting down:

https://youtube.com/shorts/bjAEr5CFYk8?si=58lI_UylsAtnab39

This isn't an amazing team that can beat anyone when they're on to me. They're treadmill with a log jam at the Wing. Why did they trade Siakam to replace him with Ingram?

I know the players are doing better than expected but the whole of the team is not greater than its parts, if you feel me. They may figure it out this year but I got them as play in material, maybe 40 wins?

I think it's reasonable to predict the Raptors around .500

They've got talent, but have a glaring issue in the paint -- they are far too dependent on Poeltl (a role player) at C to guard the paint and rebound. So any team that can keep a couple of legit bigs on the floor will absolutely kill them on the boards, which is exactly what happened against MIL, HOU, DAL.

[Baz]

Raptors sneaking into the playoffs sounds about right. The EC is not strong.