Official RJ Barrett Thread Part 2

[tsherkin]

Depends by how you define impact...

That's fair. I was mostly look at stuff like DARKO, LEBRON and O-EPM.

His raw team on/off is pretty decent.

Also, hes 34th among 147 qualifiers in shooting above expected FG%.

Box score stuff is why I'm surprised his impact signals are so marginal.

He's up a shade over 65% TS, and he's at 118 FG+ (119 2FG+ and 110 3P+), which is remarkable. And like, the numbers I was looking at are purely offensive, not even including the other side of the game, which is why it's so puzzling to me. He's still crap at the line, but back to his norm more so and not nearly as bad as last season.

So you'd think he would look a lot better. Because box score and eye test, he looks fantastic for us right now.

[everdiso]

Depends by how you define impact...

That's fair. I was mostly look at stuff like DARKO, LEBRON and O-EPM.

His raw team on/off is pretty decent.

Also, hes 34th among 147 qualifiers in shooting above expected FG%.

Box score stuff is why I'm surprised his impact signals are so marginal.

He's up a shade over 65% TS, and he's at 118 FG+ (119 2FG+ and 110 3P+), which is remarkable. And like, the numbers I was looking at are purely offensive, not even including the other side of the game, which is why it's so puzzling to me. He's still crap at the line, but back to his norm more so and not nearly as bad as last season.

So you'd think he would look a lot better. Because box score and eye test, he looks fantastic for us right now.

gotta have some patience there.

RJ has years of terrible numbers baked into the priors for all those advanced numbers. The numbers will change, but it'll take some time.

Just look at BPM to see the improvement since he got here:

Offense: NYK -2.9, -0.9, -0.3, -1.2, -0.3 --> TOR +1.5, +1.2, +2.4
Defense: NYK -1.5, -0.3, -1.3, -1.9, -1.7 --> TOR -1.4, -0.7, -0.2

Going from a -2bpm guy in NY to a +2bpm guy in TOR is a big deal. And a +2bpm guy in big minutes and usage is a very good player. I don't know that we should ever expect RJ to get up into elite level significantly higher than that...but hey, maybe.


and are lebron numbers even available this year yet?

[tsherkin]

gotta have some patience there.

Agreed. That's why I keep reminding myself of all the other stuff. He's playing well inside the system, doing what we want. He's hitting his shots. He's scoring exceptionally well right now for us. There's lots and lots of good stuff going on.

and are lebron numbers even available this year yet?

Fun fact, no. I was looking at the landing page for RJ on NBARAPM.com which is still broadcasting the 2025 numbers. Which, frankly, explains a lot.

xD

EDIT: O-EPM projected is still what I thought it was, but still.

[VanWest82]

Let's talk about impact. Many seem to be under the impression that Scottie is our best defender. Not so. Look at the "impact" this year.

117 Drtg ON
106 Drtg OFF

Not good. Meanwhile, look at our defensive stalwart Gradey Dick.

101 Drtg ON
120 Drtg OFF

Ergo, if we want our defensive impact to improve, we should give Scottie's mins to Gradey. Or maybe we stop using plus/minus based impact metrics over small samples and focus on actual improvements we see on the court.

RJ has improved. Again. Threes. PUs. Off ball. On ball defense. Incremental stuff, but It's promising.

[mtcan]

So...still a 6th man???? Seriously...those takes are the worst ever.

This is a bit premature. Our tenth game of the season is later this evening. Things could turn on a dime in an instant. We need to see that RJ can do this for an extended period of time. I think many of us are hopeful he can, but it isn't the time for harsh counter-takes.

Nope.

[tsherkin]

So...still a 6th man???? Seriously...those takes are the worst ever.

This is a bit premature. Our tenth game of the season is later this evening. Things could turn on a dime in an instant. We need to see that RJ can do this for an extended period of time. I think many of us are hopeful he can, but it isn't the time for harsh counter-takes.

Nope.

Yup.

[mtcan]

This is a bit premature. Our tenth game of the season is later this evening. Things could turn on a dime in an instant. We need to see that RJ can do this for an extended period of time. I think many of us are hopeful he can, but it isn't the time for harsh counter-takes.

Nope.

Yup.

Nah...

[tsherkin]

Nope.

Yup.

Nah...

Heh. Well, this is stimulating and all, but back to the thread. I'm hoping RJ will turn it around in the game tonight. As I say that, he had a coast-to-coast and drew a foul, so hopefully that gets him going.

[mtcan]

Yup.

Nah...

Heh. Well, this is stimulating and all, but back to the thread. I'm hoping RJ will turn it around in the game tonight. As I say that, he had a coast-to-coast and drew a foul, so hopefully that gets him going.

He'll be fine.

[tsherkin]

He'll be fine.

Hope so. He's generally been playing a brand of basketball which looks sustainable, so I'm certainly willing to ride on a little patience now that we're doing what I've been hoping we would with him.

[Indeed]

Depends by how you define impact...

That's fair. I was mostly look at stuff like DARKO, LEBRON and O-EPM.

His raw team on/off is pretty decent.

Also, hes 34th among 147 qualifiers in shooting above expected FG%.

Box score stuff is why I'm surprised his impact signals are so marginal.

He's up a shade over 65% TS, and he's at 118 FG+ (119 2FG+ and 110 3P+), which is remarkable. And like, the numbers I was looking at are purely offensive, not even including the other side of the game, which is why it's so puzzling to me. He's still crap at the line, but back to his norm more so and not nearly as bad as last season.

So you'd think he would look a lot better. Because box score and eye test, he looks fantastic for us right now.

gotta have some patience there.

RJ has years of terrible numbers baked into the priors for all those advanced numbers. The numbers will change, but it'll take some time.

Just look at BPM to see the improvement since he got here:

Offense: NYK -2.9, -0.9, -0.3, -1.2, -0.3 --> TOR +1.5, +1.2, +2.4
Defense: NYK -1.5, -0.3, -1.3, -1.9, -1.7 --> TOR -1.4, -0.7, -0.2

Going from a -2bpm guy in NY to a +2bpm guy in TOR is a big deal. And a +2bpm guy in big minutes and usage is a very good player. I don't know that we should ever expect RJ to get up into elite level significantly higher than that...but hey, maybe.


and are lebron numbers even available this year yet?

Not surprised for him playing the Darko offense, and this year playing his natural position at SG without opposing best defender on him.

[mtcan]

He'll be fine.

Hope so. He's generally been playing a brand of basketball which looks sustainable, so I'm certainly willing to ride on a little patience now that we're doing what I've been hoping we would with him.

Solid outing tonight. 2nd leading scorer tonight and made some very timely baskets in the 2nd half to help turn the tide.

And as I had said many times...the Hawks without Trae Young are actually a really good team. The size, length and athleticism of their young guys really made it hard on the Raptors.

[tsherkin]

Solid outing tonight. 2nd leading scorer tonight and made some very timely baskets in the 2nd half to help turn the tide.

Yeah, it was okay. Ugly early on, but he settled in a little as the game went on. Struggled from 3, but he did pretty well inside the arc. Not the world's greatest game, though.

And as I had said many times...the Hawks without Trae Young are actually a really good team. The size, length and athleticism of their young guys really made it hard on the Raptors.

Yeah, they were a problem for a minute. Until the 4th, anyway.

[anotherhomer]

decent secondary or teritary scorer working off Brandon or Immanuel

[mtcan]

Solid outing tonight. 2nd leading scorer tonight and made some very timely baskets in the 2nd half to help turn the tide.

Yeah, it was okay. Ugly early on, but he settled in a little as the game went on. Struggled from 3, but he did pretty well inside the arc. Not the world's greatest game, though.

And as I had said many times...the Hawks without Trae Young are actually a really good team. The size, length and athleticism of their young guys really made it hard on the Raptors.

Yeah, they were a problem for a minute. Until the 4th, anyway.

To be fair...in the first half no one other than IQ looked good. Seemed like they had too good a night in Atlanta's finest clubs last night.

It wasn't BI or Scottie's best games of the season as well.

A win's a win...will take it.

[tsherkin]

To be fair...in the first half no one other than IQ looked good. Seemed like they had too good a night in Atlanta's finest clubs last night.

BI looked pretty good early. He opened 4/7 FG in the first and was hitting all the shots steadying us when we were getting out of control. Then he 0'd the 2nd quarter and was pretty tepid thereafter. Mamu was pretty strong in the first half as well.

But yes, IQ looked pretty steady overall. And RJ's second half was strong. He was like 7/9 from the field after blanking in the first half. Settled down, got himself together.

A win's a win...will take it.

Absolutely.

[dballislife]

rj again 22 pts on just 12 shots...6 dimes and 1 turnover...the 3 ball and free throws looks improved, hes been our most consistent efficient offensive player

[raincityraptors]

RJ Barrett is my favorite player and I'm still learning things about him. Before him, OG was my favorite player because you could plug him into any situation in the game and he would make it better defensively. I feel like RJ has been playing that role for our team on the offensive side of the ball but thought that would end with BI's arrival.

It's great to see him fit so well in this latest iteration of the Raptors as our most consistent offensive player. His added strength (this is the biggest I've ever seen him) has helped with keeping his man in front of him and his defensive playmaking (deflections, blocks, steals, etc.) is the most effective I have ever seen it. His ability to touch paint is as important as ever. I love his passing and the fact that teams are starting to respect his catch and shoot ability.

He's having the best season of his career and I hope he starts getting the love from his hometown that he deserves.

[Psubs]

rj again 22 pts on just 12 shots...6 dimes and 1 turnover...the 3 ball and free throws looks improved, hes been our most consistent efficient offensive player

He's playing like Olympic RJ. When he's running with the bench players, that's when he takes a more aggressive role on offense.

[tsherkin]

rj again 22 pts on just 12 shots...6 dimes and 1 turnover...the 3 ball and free throws looks improved, hes been our most consistent efficient offensive player

He's playing like Olympic RJ. When he's running with the bench players, that's when he takes a more aggressive role on offense.

He's filling his role very well.