mdenny wrote:It's a little different though because GMs have to assign an actual value or expected outcome for draft picks in order to trade them. So when ppl lose their minds because a guy like Poetl is traded for a 12th overall pick....they are neglecting the fact that a 12th overall pick value is basically Gradey Dick.
We ses it every year. Leading up to the draft pll onvince themselves that all the prospects are destined for greatness. Then after 2 or 3 seasons....it's revealed that the large majority turn out to be Gradey dick-like quality.
Few take notice of this because they are busy over-valuing the NEXT batch of prospects.
In anycase....the main point is that neither Dick nor Walter are "bad picks". And the best way of properly measuring that is to sed where they stack up in a redraft.
I havent reviewed thosd draft classes......but Gradey being around 12 in a redraft and Walter being around 18 doesn't sound far off. In order to be "bad picks".....they would have to drastically drop in the redraft. And i don't think they do. Or i don't think one could reasonably argue that they do.
I imagine they are pretty much aligned with their respective draft order. The redraft order should be the criteria. Not comparing them to the best player taken after them. As someone else mentioned....every GM fails that criteria. It's an impossibke standard to hold anyone to.
I agree that the very best player taken at that slot is a very high standard. However, the average player taken at that slot is also a terrible standard. By that logic, you should always be indifferent to trading picks for a vet giving the average expected outcome.
The stated goal of the front office is to *outperform*. You cannot do that if you settle for average. The question shouldn't be wondering if it's a bad pick, it should be asking - is this a *good* pick? And if the answer is 'no, it's average', that's failure in my view.
An example I've used multiple times to illustrate the flaw in expected values is to ask the following:
Which is better: a dunk with 100% probability of success or a 3pt shot with 10% probability of success?
The answer is: it depends. If you are down 3 and it's your last shot, the 3pt shot is always better because of the outcome *variance*
