Replace Shai with Luka on the Thunder. What happens?

[Big_Aristotle]

I see a lot of discussion about Top 5 players in the NBA, and Shai and Luka are rightfully so always part of that discussion.

The Thunder are an amazingly deep team, so deep that they are capable of winning games without their MVP player. I was wondering what you all think would happen if you'd replace Shai with Luka on this team?

It's a hard one for me, but I would think they are slightly better. Despite how good Shai is, I think Luka is as good as a scorer but a better passer and rebounder. Thoughts?

[bonita_the_frog]

OKC wouldn't have beaten Denver or Indiana without home-court advantage, so if Doncic misses his usual amount of games I don't think OKC would win the Championship.
OKC would have MAYBE fallen below Denver in the standings as Doncic only played 50 games last season, and also factor in Doncic's inferior defense.

[Big_Aristotle]

Luka is taking his health much more serious this year. So let's assume that both are somewhat healthy going forward.

[Mavrelous]

SGA is a more consistent RS player, I think Luka may be a worse scorer in the PO, just slightly, but I expect JDub, Chet and the role players to perform much better offensively next to Luka than next SGA.


Luka's supporting cast in 23/24 Vs OKC 24/25:
Bigs:
Lively/Gafford/Maxi --> Chet/Hartenstein/JWill

3&D Guards/Wings:
Dort/Caruso/Wallace --> PJ/DJJ/Green

Shooters:
THJ/Hardy --> Joe, OKC also had Wiggins as jack of all trades player.

secondary and backup on ball players:
Kyrie/Exum --> JDub/Ajay Mitchell




On paper the supporting cast in OKC is much better, though PJ and DJJ performed amazing in the PO, I'm not sure about that.

Mavs had 60 wins pace post deadline, that carried into the PO, that's more representative of the team strength than the acutal 50 wins it ended up with, I think Luka with OKC supporting cast would win 60 also.

[DrModesty]

I think either guy can win with this roster, but I also think that the roster wouldn't have blossomed the same way if it had been Luka's from scratch. Shai is probably the best culture setter in the league.

[UcanUwill]

Thunder wouldn't have won beaten Denver or Indiana without home-court advantage, so if Doncic misses his usual amount of games I don't think OKC would win the Championship.

What? Yes, Luka missed more games last season, but OKC had massive record advantage over anyone they played, they could have won 17 less games and still would have had home court advantage in every seies they played, the only teams that were somewhat close in wins to them, were CAVS and Celtics, whom they didn't meet....

This is far more about style of play, how players like Williams would look where Luka has the ball.

Also, on average, Luka plays 64.3 regular season games, SGA plays 66, so if Luka misses his ''usual amount of games'', he plays less than 2 games less than SGA.

[Ssj16]

I put it as a wash. Even though I think Luka is the superior player, his heliocentric style of play may disrupt the team and it's chemistry a bit. He would still win a chip with team but it's hard for me to say he'd win more than SGA because this team works with SGA perfectly.

[bbms]

They get much worse, to put It simply shai is simply a better team leader

Put in Luka for shai offensively: now your offense is a heliocentric offense that doesnt develop new on ball threats, that is a lot more variance based and turnover prone. Sure Luka is a more talented offensive player, but SGA is a lot more consistent

Defensively... Welp. You trade like a near top weak side perimeter defender for a guy with inconsistent effort on defense that doesnt Excel in anything... This thunder defense is based on having no weak links now your got a solid one.

Worse

[Wolveswin]

Better question is, if Mavs put Doncic on actual trade block and take offers from all teams, does Presti - who has most assets to offer - win the Doncic trade bidding process?

Better follow up question, are OKC Thunder a better team after this all-in trade for Doncic? Let’s assume Doncic for Jalen plus tons of picks is Presti offer. Would the pair of SGA and Doncic worked?

SGA
Doncic
Dart
Chet
Hartenstein

[Maxthirty]

Better question is, if Mavs put Doncic on actual trade block and take offers from all teams, does Presti - who has most assets to offer - win the Doncic trade bidding process?

Better follow up question, are OKC Thunder a better team after this all-in trade for Doncic? Let’s assume Doncic for Jalen plus tons of picks is Presti offer. Would the pair of SGA and Doncic worked?

SGA
Doncic
Dart
Chet
Hartenstein

That team would be worse than the current version.

[Archx]

They get much worse, to put It simply shai is simply a better team leader

Put in Luka for shai offensively: now your offense is a heliocentric offense that doesnt develop new on ball threats, that is a lot more variance based and turnover prone. Sure Luka is a more talented offensive player, but SGA is a lot more consistent

Defensively... Welp. You trade like a near top weak side perimeter defender for a guy with inconsistent effort on defense that doesnt Excel in anything... This thunder defense is based on having no weak links now your got a solid one.

Worse

First i have to say i have no problem with you believing OKC would get worse, fine i respect your opinion but when you say MUCH WORSE? I mean.. let's look at some of the facts.

How are Mavs doing without Luka organizing their offense? 29th best offense in the league.... yeah.

Luka, if you exclude last season, has basically been the best playmaker in the past 5 years. Combined with assists, 2ndary assists, points created from the assists, ShotQuality% and ShotQuality created for team mates.. No one even comes close, not even Jokic. So, you're trying to convince us that OKC would get much worse with a player like that?

On top of it, Luka led team never had problems with his defense, check his playoffs impact on Mavs before saying stuff like that.

So again, to say OKC would be MUCH worse, is simply wrong on so many levels. I actually think OKC shooters would thrive because of all the open looks they would be getting. Look at Lakers for example, Rui is having a career shooting% year so far and him and Luka/AR duo have the best offensive rating in NBA history when playing together.

[og15]

They get much worse, to put It simply shai is simply a better team leader

Put in Luka for shai offensively: now your offense is a heliocentric offense that doesnt develop new on ball threats, that is a lot more variance based and turnover prone. Sure Luka is a more talented offensive player, but SGA is a lot more consistent

Defensively... Welp. You trade like a near top weak side perimeter defender for a guy with inconsistent effort on defense that doesnt Excel in anything... This thunder defense is based on having no weak links now your got a solid one.

Worse

First i have to say i have no problem with you believing OKC would get worse, fine i respect your opinion but when you say MUCH WORSE? I mean.. let's look at some of the facts.

How are Mavs doing without Luka organizing their offense? 29th best offense in the league.... yeah.

Luka, if you exclude last season, has basically been the best playmaker in the past 5 years. Combined with assists, 2ndary assists, points created from the assists, ShotQuality% and ShotQuality created for team mates.. No one even comes close, not even Jokic. So, you're trying to convince us that OKC would get much worse with a player like that?

On top of it, Luka led team never had problems with his defense, check his playoffs impact on Mavs before saying stuff like that.

So again, to say OKC would be MUCH worse, is simply wrong on so many levels. I actually think OKC shooters would thrive because of all the open looks they would be getting. Look at Lakers for example, Rui is having a career shooting% year so far and him and Luka/AR duo have the best offensive rating in NBA history when playing together.

This is not a very good example though, Luka is a great offensive player, but it's much more than just not having Luka for the Mavs too.

[bonita_the_frog]

Dallas beat OKC 3 times last season, without Doncic, and it was before they got AD.
Having Kyrie is a big deal, because their defense is excellent, so improving their offense with just ONE scorer is enough to beat OKC.

[Archx]

They get much worse, to put It simply shai is simply a better team leader

Put in Luka for shai offensively: now your offense is a heliocentric offense that doesnt develop new on ball threats, that is a lot more variance based and turnover prone. Sure Luka is a more talented offensive player, but SGA is a lot more consistent

Defensively... Welp. You trade like a near top weak side perimeter defender for a guy with inconsistent effort on defense that doesnt Excel in anything... This thunder defense is based on having no weak links now your got a solid one.

Worse

First i have to say i have no problem with you believing OKC would get worse, fine i respect your opinion but when you say MUCH WORSE? I mean.. let's look at some of the facts.

How are Mavs doing without Luka organizing their offense? 29th best offense in the league.... yeah.

Luka, if you exclude last season, has basically been the best playmaker in the past 5 years. Combined with assists, 2ndary assists, points created from the assists, ShotQuality% and ShotQuality created for team mates.. No one even comes close, not even Jokic. So, you're trying to convince us that OKC would get much worse with a player like that?

On top of it, Luka led team never had problems with his defense, check his playoffs impact on Mavs before saying stuff like that.

So again, to say OKC would be MUCH worse, is simply wrong on so many levels. I actually think OKC shooters would thrive because of all the open looks they would be getting. Look at Lakers for example, Rui is having a career shooting% year so far and him and Luka/AR duo have the best offensive rating in NBA history when playing together.

This is not a very good example though, Luka is a great offensive player, but it's much more than just not having Luka for the Mavs too.

That is also true but i just wanted to put it in a context. Even though Klay and Naji basically said they miss Doncic and it's more than evident how atrocious their offense looks even when guys like DLo or BWill run the show as playmakers.

Dallas beat OKC 3 times last season, without Doncic, and it was before they got AD.
Having Kyrie is a big deal, because their defense is excellent, so improving their offense with just ONE scorer is enough to beat OKC.

You just casually miss a lot of info when you say this. OKC played without many important pieces, mainly centers and they were destroyed under rim. And those were just regular season games not even playoffs. OKC would demolish Mavs in playoffs without Luka's playmaking, he literally picked them apart, you even have it on Youtube with analysis.

[Optms]

I think its a wash.

Luka and Shai are same tier players. Thunder and Lakers would be rolling with either.

[hagredionis]

Luka is a much better playmaker and passer and a better rebounder. OKC gets better and becomes a dynasty.

[OriAr]

Better question is, if Mavs put Doncic on actual trade block and take offers from all teams, does Presti - who has most assets to offer - win the Doncic trade bidding process?

Better follow up question, are OKC Thunder a better team after this all-in trade for Doncic? Let’s assume Doncic for Jalen plus tons of picks is Presti offer. Would the pair of SGA and Doncic worked?

SGA
Doncic
Dart
Chet
Hartenstein

My hot take is that I don't think he even goes into the bidding process.
I feel like the Spurs would be the ones looking to get in and pair him with Wemby but knowing Brian Wright I don't know if he'd have been willing to break the bank for him and trade nearly everybody.
I truly believe that the package Luka would have gotten in the open market would have been fairly underwhelming relatively to what people think... He probably fetches something around the KD to Phoenix package (Two young players + 4 FRPs).
All the FOs in the league have access to the same analytics Dallas have... And they show consistently that Luka's impact is fairly underwhelming given his enormous volume stats. It definitely would have gotten FOs hesitant to give significantly more than the KD package.
Trading Luka is a defensible decision with actual logic in it, I can even see the logic behind going for AD... Nico should have insisted on including the Lakers' 2031 pick and/or Reaves though, not getting even either of them is inexcusable.

For the topic in question, my guess is that the Thunder fall in the 2nd round/WCF, their defense gets far worse and their offense probably stays put at best, and heliocentric offense rarely works in the playoffs.
As I said, Luka's impact is underwhelming while SGA manages to impact even a massively stacked OKC team.

[Chuck Everett]

Shai is a better leader. More mature and composed as well.

[Airmiess]

Thunder is all active defense, SGA is the guy they need.

[EmpireFalls]

Shai fits their pace and style better