The 2025 Rookie Class

[dckingsfan]

Kon is a primary scoring option and the current leader (by far) for the rookie of the year.

This. And he hasn't been terrible on the defensive end either. Not great but I thought he wouldn't be a good defender.
Tre

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Age   DRB%   STL%   BLK%   DBPM   DRtg
19    11.4   0.6    1.6    -3.1   127

Kon

Code: Select all

Age   DRB%   STL%   BLK%   DBPM   DRtg
20    18.4   1.1    0.2    -1.5   122

But Tre is more than a FULL year younger.

[tontoz]

Tre and Bub were too similar in archtype for me... Not overly athletic perimeter based players...
I thought that redundancy wasn't a good idea... ...

That's the problem right there. Bub was completely irrelevant to who we drafted. They weren't going to make the pick based on who was a better fit with Bub.

And trying to act like Bub was similar to Tre was ridiculous. Jay bilas called the SEC the toughest conference in history. 14 teams made the NCAA tournament. And Tre led the SEC in scoring as a freshman and his shots were mostly self created.

Bub averaged 14 ppg shooting 32% from 3. Tre averaged 20 ppg against much tougher competition and shot 40% from 3. He was not scared to drive like Bub.

[penbeast0]

I agree with you both.

Just pair Will Riley with Tre Johnson, and let's see Batman and Robin come into fruition.

It could be the Wizards already fathom.this idea, they want to keep tanking with CJ getting many shots while Bub Carrington digs into in a crater.

I think, like with Poole, the team has faith that Bub is going to turn it around and wants to give him the minutes to do it. I hope they are right but I really don't think playing Bub is to try to see him fail. For a downhill guard, we could give AJ more minutes. Unlike Fears, he doesn't seem to have a playmaker mentality, just a scorer, but he gave us some nice moments attacking the basket last year when he got time.

[tontoz]

I agree with you both.

Just pair Will Riley with Tre Johnson, and let's see Batman and Robin come into fruition.

It could be the Wizards already fathom.this idea, they want to keep tanking with CJ getting many shots while Bub Carrington digs into in a crater.

I think, like with Poole, the team has faith that Bub is going to turn it around and wants to give him the minutes to do it. I hope they are right but I really don't think playing Bub is to try to see him fail. For a downhill guard, we could give AJ more minutes. Unlike Fears, he doesn't seem to have a playmaker mentality, just a scorer, but he gave us some nice moments attacking the basket last year when he got time.

Fears doesn't have a playmakers mentality either.

[penbeast0]

True, I hadn't looked until you said that. Makes me even happier with the Tre over Fears pick despite the early season hype.

[payitforward]

Kon is so further along than Tre Johnson, it's not even funny. Kon basically plays like a 5 year NBA vet.

I assume that, in the draft thread earlier this year, you suggested that if Kon was on the board at our spot we should take him. Did you?

Yes I did.

...Fears plays downhill.... His profile of guard is way more attractive to me than any of the guards on this roster.

Again, I assume that you also posted that Fears was a better guard prospect than Tre.

Yes I did. I literally had a "do not draft" grade on Tre. Now is he at that level...no. So I admit I was wrong and I was being hyperbolic, but I still don't rate him over Kon, Fears, or Queen.

In that case, it really looks like you were right about Kon at least -- or most clearly so based on early results!

[closg00]

I agree with you both.

Just pair Will Riley with Tre Johnson, and let's see Batman and Robin come into fruition.

It could be the Wizards already fathom.this idea, they want to keep tanking with CJ getting many shots while Bub Carrington digs into in a crater.

I think, like with Poole, the team has faith that Bub is going to turn it around and wants to give him the minutes to do it. I hope they are right but I really don't think playing Bub is to try to see him fail. For a downhill guard, we could give AJ more minutes. Unlike Fears, he doesn't seem to have a playmaker mentality, just a scorer, but he gave us some nice moments attacking the basket last year when he got time.

Fears doesn't have a playmakers mentality either.

Fears is 10 games removed from being a HS Senior effectively? Fears progress so-far is remarkable for someone being thrown into being a starting NBA PG, none of the other 2025 Point Guards that were drafted have been thrust into the starting role. Fears has nothing but upside ahead of him.

[tontoz]

Fears is 10 games removed from being a HS Senior effectively? Fears progress so-far is remarkable for someone being thrown into being a starting NBA PG, none of the other 2025 Point Guards that were drafted have been thrust into the starting role. Fears has nothing but upside ahead of him.

None of that changes that he doesn't have a playmakers mentality. He sure didn't have one in college. I watched him several times and I didn't see it. It doesnt show up in his assist to turnover ratio either.

[Benjammin]

Kon was the darling of stat analytics guys from what I remember.

Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

[nate33]

Fears is 10 games removed from being a HS Senior effectively? Fears progress so-far is remarkable for someone being thrown into being a starting NBA PG, none of the other 2025 Point Guards that were drafted have been thrust into the starting role. Fears has nothing but upside ahead of him.

None of that changes that he doesn't have a playmakers mentality. He sure didn't have one in college. I watched him several times and I didn't see it. It doesnt show up in his assist to turnover ratio either.

All Fears has done is demonstrate that he is able to get a lot of shots up at the NBA level - at a horrific TS% of .519. That's not nothing. History shows that high volume on low efficiency is often a pretty good sign of potential, but let's not act like he is an effective player in any way, shape, or form.

The actual results have so far been terrible. A .519 TS% is catastrophically bad and so is his A/TO ratio of 1.3. Those bad box score numbers are reflected in his awful on/off differential of -17.5. And having a dramatically negative on/off differential on a 2-10 team means he is making an already bad team much, much worse.

So, in summary, I'd say he is playing really bad, but he is at least showing one of the necessary skills (getting shots up) at a very young age that often can translate into promising play in the future. It doesn't always work out though. His numbers look a lot like Johnny Flynn's rookie numbers, for example.

[closg00]

Fears is 10 games removed from being a HS Senior effectively? Fears progress so-far is remarkable for someone being thrown into being a starting NBA PG, none of the other 2025 Point Guards that were drafted have been thrust into the starting role. Fears has nothing but upside ahead of him.

None of that changes that he doesn't have a playmakers mentality. He sure didn't have one in college. I watched him several times and I didn't see it. It doesnt show up in his assist to turnover ratio either.

You're making an assumption that someone how just turned 19 will never evolve as a player, if this were the case, there is no point in the draft at all.
I get your call though, I am betting that the opposite will happen.

[tontoz]

Fears is 10 games removed from being a HS Senior effectively? Fears progress so-far is remarkable for someone being thrown into being a starting NBA PG, none of the other 2025 Point Guards that were drafted have been thrust into the starting role. Fears has nothing but upside ahead of him.

None of that changes that he doesn't have a playmakers mentality. He sure didn't have one in college. I watched him several times and I didn't see it. It doesnt show up in his assist to turnover ratio either.

You're making an assumption that someone how just turned 19 will never evolve as a player, if this were the case, there is no point in the draft at all.
I get your call though, I am betting that the opposite will happen.

I am making no assumptions at all. I am simply looking at the facts based on his actual play, rather than on what I hope his play will be.

Sure it's possible he could grow 2-3 inches, gain 20 pounds, cut down his turnovers, increase his assists and improve his jumper. I am not going to bet on all that though.

[tontoz]

All Fears has done is demonstrate that he is able to get a lot of shots up at the NBA level - at a horrific TS% of .519.

That's a bit harsh. I wouldn't call that horrific for a rookie pg.

[dckingsfan]

I have the gut feeling that this year's rookie class is going to become irrelevant outside of just a couple of players... just sayin'

[nate33]

All Fears has done is demonstrate that he is able to get a lot of shots up at the NBA level - at a horrific TS% of .519.

That's a bit harsh. I wouldn't call that horrific for a rookie pg.

I'd agree with that. It's not horrific for a rookie pg. It's horrific in its impact on an ability for a team to win games though.

I already said that high volume and low efficiency for a very young player is often a sign that they will pan out pretty well.

[dckingsfan]

All Fears has done is demonstrate that he is able to get a lot of shots up at the NBA level - at a horrific TS% of .519.

That's a bit harsh. I wouldn't call that horrific for a rookie pg.

I'd agree with that. It's not horrific for a rookie pg. It's horrific in its impact on an ability for a team to win games though.

I already said that high volume and low efficiency for a very young player is often a sign that they will pan out pretty well.

What I find fascinating is that they let a rookie shoot near to 45% of his shots from mid-range.

[tontoz]

Bbref is showing only 21% of his shots are from midrange.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Fears is 10 games removed from being a HS Senior effectively? Fears progress so-far is remarkable for someone being thrown into being a starting NBA PG, none of the other 2025 Point Guards that were drafted have been thrust into the starting role. Fears has nothing but upside ahead of him.

None of that changes that he doesn't have a playmakers mentality. He sure didn't have one in college. I watched him several times and I didn't see it. It doesnt show up in his assist to turnover ratio either.

All Fears has done is demonstrate that he is able to get a lot of shots up at the NBA level - at a horrific TS% of .519. That's not nothing. History shows that high volume on low efficiency is often a pretty good sign of potential, but let's not act like he is an effective player in any way, shape, or form.

The actual results have so far been terrible. A .519 TS% is catastrophically bad and so is his A/TO ratio of 1.3. Those bad box score numbers are reflected in his awful on/off differential of -17.5. And having a dramatically negative on/off differential on a 2-10 team means he is making an already bad team much, much worse.

So, in summary, I'd say he is playing really bad, but he is at least showing one of the necessary skills (getting shots up) at a very young age that often can translate into promising play in the future. It doesn't always work out though. His numbers look a lot like Johnny Flynn's rookie numbers, for example.

New Orleans has been far better with Jose Alvarado at PG than with Jeremiah Fears.

[payitforward]

Golden State took Will Richard with the 56th pick in the '25 draft. He might be the best 2025 rookie so far. Certainly among the top 5 or 6.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/richawi02.html

[closg00]

Golden State took Will Richard with the 56th pick in the '25 draft. He might be the best 2025 rookie so far. Certainly among the top 5 or 6.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/richawi02.html

...and they inserted him into the rotation immediately, he is producing.