Penn State freshman Gavin McKenna is no longer a certainty to be selected first overall in the 2026 NHL Draft after a challenging start to his college career. Seven NHL scouts indicated they would select a different player at No. 1, though ten scouts maintain McKenna remains the clear top prospect.
McKenna has struggled to translate his dominant junior hockey performance to the college level. The physicality of NCAA play has challenged him, particularly at even strength. While he remains electric with the puck and on the power play, his overall production has fallen short of expectations.
McKenna posted exceptional numbers in the WHL last season, drawing comparisons to Patrick Kane from his supporters. However, scouts have historically questioned his effort level and tendency toward perimeter play. The 5-foot-11 winger lacks elite speed and isn\'t particularly difficult to play against.
Some argue McKenna would have maintained his draft position by returning to junior hockey rather than competing in the NCAA. Instead, his decision to face higher-level competition has provided scouts with compelling data about how his game translates upward.
The lack of a clear alternative keeps McKenna atop many draft boards. North Dakota defenseman Keaton Verhoeff draws comparisons to Aaron Ekblad but lacks McKenna\'s dynamic offensive ability. Windsor\'s Ethan Belchetz offers a similar profile to 2022 top pick Juraj Slafkovsky as a skilled power forward.
Muskegon center Tynan Lawrence has shown promise as a two-way player with speed and skill. However, injuries have limited his exposure this fall. Sweden\'s Ivar Stenberg presents an electric smaller winger option, while Latvia\'s Alberts Smits has attracted attention as a big defenseman in Liiga.
McKenna still has opportunities to reclaim unanimous top-pick status. More than half his college season remains, plus the World Juniors where he\'s expected to lead Team Canada. What\'s clear is that the 2026 draft\'s top selection is now genuinely contested.