Rumors, Random Thoughts, etc Version 20/20 We all got everything right...

[Mavrelous]

but would a healthy expiring AD fetch more than 2 1sts regardless?

He should? He was 17th in trade value on this board just a year ago, but regardless, I totally understand anyone who values differently.
These are a protected 1st with no upside and a 1st from a team in the east that is already borderline PO team, it has very little variance, I value these 1sts very little.
I value a chance at competing next year much more, the only reason to do this deal is to save money.

He was playing better with less weight a year ago. Also had an easier contract to match salary wise

The contract was built into that valuation.
My answer was for the hypothetical of healthy and in shape AD, he obviousely isn't now.

[kobe_vs_jordan]

He should? He was 17th in trade value on this board just a year ago, but regardless, I totally understand anyone who values differently.
These are a protected 1st with no upside and a 1st from a team in the east that is already borderline PO team, it has very little variance, I value these 1sts very little.
I value a chance at competing next year much more, the only reason to do this deal is to save money.

He was playing better with less weight a year ago. Also had an easier contract to match salary wise

The contract was built into that valuation.
My answer was for the hypothetical of healthy and in shape AD, he obviousely isn't now.

Was responding to the his last year value part mostly.

If Dallas ready to contend next year they should keep their vets

[kobe_vs_jordan]

Any chance pistons send two picks and a swap for AD, max christie and Brandon Williams ?

Mavs enhance AD trade value by adding players they likely won’t keep long term.

[Texas Chuck]

Any chance pistons send two picks and a swap for AD, max christie and Brandon Williams ?

Mavs enhance AD trade value by adding players they likely won’t keep long term.

Have you heard something on the guards? I mean I get Williams is a dime a dozen scoring guard so easy to assume he's not part of the future. But Christie is young, cheap, and makes 3's. Not untouchable, but not a guy I'd think they'd casually toss in to a deal.

[jayjaysee]

Any chance pistons send two picks and a swap for AD, max christie and Brandon Williams ?

Mavs enhance AD trade value by adding players they likely won’t keep long term.

This might be a horrible take*

But the Pistons are really good and if you’re adding AD to that core, they’re going to be even better for the next few years. And Thompson will finish developing by the time the second pick conveys.

Assuming that’s 2026/2028 firsts and there’s no good prospect coming from Det.. I’d rather just keep AD for 2027-2029 and try and bring the young guys up on a winning squad. As long as the tank is not interrupted this season. 50~ games of AD and Kyrie will raise Lively/Flagg/rookie to the play-in the next couple seasons and if they’re healthy at that point, you can feel like you’re winning a series.. That to me is better than getting a late first and a probable late first.

No issue with Det fans tapping out and just enjoying their young core develop.

[SkyHook]

Riffing off of babyjax13's thread yesterday, I'd love for the Jazz to find a way to move Nurkic and Svi. Despite their limitations, they're both hindering what should be the prime goals for Utah this season; securing a top pick and maximizing the playing time of the youth. Nurk's rebounding alone (6th in the league in TRB%, 3rd in DRB%) has been a factor in Utah's (limited) success. My ideal move would have been to Chicago for the expiring Collins and one of their end-of-bench guys like Terry. A small draft asset coming back would be nice but not necessary; Zach fits into the balance of the John Collins TPE, creating a slightly larger one with a later expiring date via Nurkic's outgoing contract. With Jalen Smith playing as well as he has, they don't need another center taking minutes from him.

To the Lakers for Vincent and Kleber would work, imo. Jazz can take back considerably more salary in any deal. Any possibilities with other teams' unproductive expirings out there? Is this just wishful thinking?

[oldncreaky]

Any chance pistons send two picks and a swap for AD, max christie and Brandon Williams ?

Mavs enhance AD trade value by adding players they likely won’t keep long term.

Have you heard something on the guards? I mean I get Williams is a dime a dozen scoring guard so easy to assume he's not part of the future. But Christie is young, cheap, and makes 3's. Not untouchable, but not a guy I'd think they'd casually toss in to a deal.

IIRC from other posts, we agree that if DET is looking to upgrade at veteran PF, reaching for AD shouldn't be the first choice. I'd prefer Randle, or possibly Siakam, as a better mix of role/salary/assets/availability, and I'm personally far more concerned about DET's guard rotation than upgrading Tobias anyway.

That said, if DET trades for AD, they will realistically need to send out 3 (in the rotation) players and roughly $50M in salary to make it a legal trade, getting back AD and 2 other players totalling around $60M. In that kind of trade, AD is obviously the best player, and the next 2-3 players (in terms of on-court value) are probably coming from DET -- whether DET takes Christie, or a scrub++ instead, won't really change the decision for either side.


But I really want to talk about guards. As for Brandon Williams: I've watched all/parts of 3 Dallas games so far, and I don't really recall him. (Maybe I was too busy watching the kid from Maine!). OTOH there are a number of young guards in the EC who I have noticed, including
1. Demin in BRK. He looks really good on the court. The rest of the Nets draft class looks too young/raw to evaluate yet, but I think they definitely hit on the 8th pick
2. Shead in TOR. If Quickley ever misses a game, he might not ever get his starter's job back . . .
3. Daniss Jenkins in DET. I'll wait until the league has had a chance to scout him before getting too excited, but it's always great when a kid on a 2-way contract comes in and keeps the winning streak going when our star PG is out. (Kid has 19pts/9ast in 4 winning starts, with a Ast:TO ratio of 3:1, and has also played well as a back up)
4. ATL -- or at least their announcers -- seems to be high on Keaton Wallace (older brother of Cason) who is another 2-way guy getting significant time and contributing to wins while the star is out. (I've only seen him on the court once, so I won't comment)

[SkyHook]

Any chance pistons send two picks and a swap for AD, max christie and Brandon Williams ?

Mavs enhance AD trade value by adding players they likely won’t keep long term.

Have you heard something on the guards? I mean I get Williams is a dime a dozen scoring guard so easy to assume he's not part of the future. But Christie is young, cheap, and makes 3's. Not untouchable, but not a guy I'd think they'd casually toss in to a deal.

IIRC from other posts, we agree that if DET is looking to upgrade at veteran PF, reaching for AD shouldn't be the first choice. I'd prefer Randle, or possibly Siakam, as a better mix of role/salary/assets/availability, and I'm personally far more concerned about DET's guard rotation than upgrading Tobias anyway.

That said, if DET trades for AD, they will realistically need to send out 3 (in the rotation) players and roughly $50M in salary to make it a legal trade, getting back AD and 2 other players totalling around $60M. In that kind of trade, AD is obviously the best player, and the next 2-3 players (in terms of on-court value) are probably coming from DET -- whether DET takes Christie, or a scrub++ instead, won't really change the decision for either side.


But I really want to talk about guards. As for Brandon Williams: I've watched all/parts of 3 Dallas games so far, and I don't really recall him. (Maybe I was too busy watching the kid from Maine!). OTOH there are a number of young guards in the EC who I have noticed, including
1. Demin in BRK. He looks really good on the court. The rest of the Nets draft class looks too young/raw to evaluate yet, but I think they definitely hit on the 8th pick
2. Shead in TOR. If Quickley ever misses a game, he might not ever get his starter's job back . . .
3. Daniss Jenkins in DET. I'll wait until the league has had a chance to scout him before getting too excited, but it's always great when a kid on a 2-way contract comes in and keeps the winning streak going when our star PG is out. (Kid has 19pts/9ast in 4 winning starts, with a Ast:TO ratio of 3:1, and has also played well as a back up)
4. ATL -- or at least their announcers -- seems to be high on Keaton Wallace (older brother of Cason) who is another 2-way guy getting significant time and contributing to wins while the star is out. (I've only seen him on the court once, so I won't comment)

Jenkins has taken advantage of his opportunity to play and has looked great. Demin is one I have my eye on and have high expectations for. I wouldn't have minded trading down and taking him, but he went even higher than I expected.

[jbk1234]

Riffing off of babyjax13's thread yesterday, I'd love for the Jazz to find a way to move Nurkic and Svi. Despite their limitations, they're both hindering what should be the prime goals for Utah this season; securing a top pick and maximizing the playing time of the youth. Nurk's rebounding alone (6th in the league in TRB%, 3rd in DRB%) has been a factor in Utah's (limited) success. My ideal move would have been to Chicago for the expiring Collins and one of their end-of-bench guys like Terry. A small draft asset coming back would be nice but not necessary; Zach fits into the balance of the John Collins TPE, creating a slightly larger one with a later expiring date via Nurkic's outgoing contract. With Jalen Smith playing as well as he has, they don't need another center taking minutes from him.

To the Lakers for Vincent and Kleber would work, imo. Jazz can take back considerably more salary in any deal. Any possibilities with other teams' unproductive expirings out there? Is this just wishful thinking?

If the Jazz are truly unwilling to take back long-term salary, I'm not seeing it. Nurkic just makes too much for what he provides.

[SkyHook]

Riffing off of babyjax13's thread yesterday, I'd love for the Jazz to find a way to move Nurkic and Svi. Despite their limitations, they're both hindering what should be the prime goals for Utah this season; securing a top pick and maximizing the playing time of the youth. Nurk's rebounding alone (6th in the league in TRB%, 3rd in DRB%) has been a factor in Utah's (limited) success. My ideal move would have been to Chicago for the expiring Collins and one of their end-of-bench guys like Terry. A small draft asset coming back would be nice but not necessary; Zach fits into the balance of the John Collins TPE, creating a slightly larger one with a later expiring date via Nurkic's outgoing contract. With Jalen Smith playing as well as he has, they don't need another center taking minutes from him.

To the Lakers for Vincent and Kleber would work, imo. Jazz can take back considerably more salary in any deal. Any possibilities with other teams' unproductive expirings out there? Is this just wishful thinking?

If the Jazz are truly unwilling to take back long-term salary, I'm not seeing it. Nurkic just makes too much for what he provides.

Yeah, I get that. He's also expiring though. Thinking that there might be guys (or groups of guys) also on expiring deals who are providing much less or even not playing at all. Or a team that might want a larger expiring slot. Just spitballing.

[kobe_vs_jordan]

Any chance pistons send two picks and a swap for AD, max christie and Brandon Williams ?

Mavs enhance AD trade value by adding players they likely won’t keep long term.

Have you heard something on the guards? I mean I get Williams is a dime a dozen scoring guard so easy to assume he's not part of the future. But Christie is young, cheap, and makes 3's. Not untouchable, but not a guy I'd think they'd casually toss in to a deal.

From my understanding Williams contract doesn’t come with bird rights.

Max a good player enhancing AD value. Mavs have to make a choice to pay him long term or not next summer. Trading him before he becomes an expiring maximizes his value

[Klomp]

I'm trying to play around with a three-team trade involving Dallas, Minnesota and Team X, where Team X gets Anthony Davis and Dallas gets Julius Randle. I'm toying with Chicago as the third team, but haven't been able to settle on a good package.

Anybody else have ideas?

Think wolves and Dallas argue who get team x value. Dallas doesn’t need a good player this year

That's fair, but I don't know if it's a given that Dallas completely tanks. I know that's what the fan base wants, but very few front offices are wired like that. And the ones that are happen to oftentimes work for perpetually losing franchises.

I do think Dallas needs to re-balance its cap sheet over the next 4-10 months, but it doesn't have to come via bottoming out.

[Texas Chuck]

Max a good player enhancing AD value. Mavs have to make a choice to pay him long term or not next summer. Trading him before he becomes an expiring maximizes his value

Oh I agree that if they don't want to pay him, they should absolutely trade him now. But I don't think they see him as a throw-in and if that is his value(and I'm not saying its not) then they should just keep him to evaluate him further towards another contract. Because if all they lose is a couple of 2nds worth of value, they've sacrificed nothing.

Now if adding him improves the 1sts coming from Detroit and Detroit sees the value in that, I'm okay with it. But I'd right now include him in the (too) small group of players Dallas could see growing alongside Cooper.

[Godaddycurse]

I'm trying to play around with a three-team trade involving Dallas, Minnesota and Team X, where Team X gets Anthony Davis and Dallas gets Julius Randle. I'm toying with Chicago as the third team, but haven't been able to settle on a good package.

Anybody else have ideas?

Think wolves and Dallas argue who get team x value. Dallas doesn’t need a good player this year

That's fair, but I don't know if it's a given that Dallas completely tanks. I know that's what the fan base wants, but very few front offices are wired like that. And the ones that are happen to oftentimes work for perpetually losing franchises.

I do think Dallas needs to re-balance its cap sheet over the next 4-10 months, but it doesn't have to come via bottoming out.

Dallas is a popular choice to bottom out this year because they wont get to for a while after this year. No control of own pick again until 2031

[Texas Chuck]

I'm trying to play around with a three-team trade involving Dallas, Minnesota and Team X, where Team X gets Anthony Davis and Dallas gets Julius Randle. I'm toying with Chicago as the third team, but haven't been able to settle on a good package.

Anybody else have ideas?

Think wolves and Dallas argue who get team x value. Dallas doesn’t need a good player this year

That's fair, but I don't know if it's a given that Dallas completely tanks. I know that's what the fan base wants, but very few front offices are wired like that. And the ones that are happen to oftentimes work for perpetually losing franchises.

I do think Dallas needs to re-balance its cap sheet over the next 4-10 months, but it doesn't have to come via bottoming out.

Dallas has historically not tanked(ironic since they are one of the few teams punished for it and they literally tanked 3 quarters in one game and even had they won that game, they would have kept their pick...). But none of the guys who were in charge are now in charge and I'm not sure how much sway Finley has(the one mainstay).

But trading AD for Randle seems pointless other than Randle will play more games and maybe he sells a few tickets as a Dallas guy. Raises the floor but lowers the ceiling. I'd hope they'd not look to do that.

[Klomp]

But trading AD for Randle seems pointless other than Randle will play more games and maybe he sells a few tickets as a Dallas guy. Raises the floor but lowers the ceiling. I'd hope they'd not look to do that.

Both are good things to do when the previous GM caused the fan base to riot....

Sometimes, a floor-raising trade is needed when a team has bottomed out and has a young franchise player. The strategy has worked well for Minnesota. Not saying Randle would have the effect Gobert has had, but speaking more to the general idea behind that strategy. If Dallas believes it has its guy in Cooper, need to put him in a position to win rather than teaching him tanking is okay and losing is acceptable.

But your point is taken.

[jbk1234]

Riffing off of babyjax13's thread yesterday, I'd love for the Jazz to find a way to move Nurkic and Svi. Despite their limitations, they're both hindering what should be the prime goals for Utah this season; securing a top pick and maximizing the playing time of the youth. Nurk's rebounding alone (6th in the league in TRB%, 3rd in DRB%) has been a factor in Utah's (limited) success. My ideal move would have been to Chicago for the expiring Collins and one of their end-of-bench guys like Terry. A small draft asset coming back would be nice but not necessary; Zach fits into the balance of the John Collins TPE, creating a slightly larger one with a later expiring date via Nurkic's outgoing contract. With Jalen Smith playing as well as he has, they don't need another center taking minutes from him.

To the Lakers for Vincent and Kleber would work, imo. Jazz can take back considerably more salary in any deal. Any possibilities with other teams' unproductive expirings out there? Is this just wishful thinking?

If the Jazz are truly unwilling to take back long-term salary, I'm not seeing it. Nurkic just makes too much for what he provides.

Yeah, I get that. He's also expiring though. Thinking that there might be guys (or groups of guys) also on expiring deals who are providing much less or even not playing at all. Or a team that might want a larger expiring slot. Just spitballing.

The problem is no decent team is going to play Nurkic all those minutes, let alone start him. No bad team is going to pay to swap expirings.

[Godaddycurse]

If the Jazz are truly unwilling to take back long-term salary, I'm not seeing it. Nurkic just makes too much for what he provides.

Yeah, I get that. He's also expiring though. Thinking that there might be guys (or groups of guys) also on expiring deals who are providing much less or even not playing at all. Or a team that might want a larger expiring slot. Just spitballing.

The problem is no decent team is going to play Nurkic all those minutes, let alone start him. No bad team is going to pay to swap expirings.

Boston should pay a bit to swap simons for nurkic to save some money

[jbk1234]

Any chance pistons send two picks and a swap for AD, max christie and Brandon Williams ?

Mavs enhance AD trade value by adding players they likely won’t keep long term.

Have you heard something on the guards? I mean I get Williams is a dime a dozen scoring guard so easy to assume he's not part of the future. But Christie is young, cheap, and makes 3's. Not untouchable, but not a guy I'd think they'd casually toss in to a deal.

From my understanding Williams contract doesn’t come with bird rights.

Max a good player enhancing AD value. Mavs have to make a choice to pay him long term or not next summer. Trading him before he becomes an expiring maximizes his value

Assuming it's a maxish extension, I'm skeptical that an extended AD has more trade value than an expiring AD. Now, if he gets and remains healthy from now until the deadline, and manages to play well despite the Mavs guard rotation (again skeptical) that could change, but right now, a significant financial obligation attached to him is not a plus.

[jayjaysee]

I'm trying to play around with a three-team trade involving Dallas, Minnesota and Team X, where Team X gets Anthony Davis and Dallas gets Julius Randle. I'm toying with Chicago as the third team, but haven't been able to settle on a good package.

Anybody else have ideas?

Think wolves and Dallas argue who get team x value. Dallas doesn’t need a good player this year

That's fair, but I don't know if it's a given that Dallas completely tanks. I know that's what the fan base wants, but very few front offices are wired like that. And the ones that are happen to oftentimes work for perpetually losing franchises.

I do think Dallas needs to re-balance its cap sheet over the next 4-10 months, but it doesn't have to come via bottoming out.

This might be a deal that Dallas could look at after this season if they don’t care about keeping the higher ceiling and just wants to try and make it easy for the kids?

You can trade AD for Randle and then get value for PJ, so there is some added value there (despite no Dallas wanting to trade PJ honestly)

But it would be really ill advised for Dallas to raise the floor this season. You have just this season to build value through the draft around Cooper. This was obvious to everyone 5 months ago and now seems even more clear that the team is producing how some expected them to..

2027 Dallas first - to Charlotte top 2 protected
2028 Dallas first - swap with OKC
2029 Dallas first - who knows. Houston or Brooklyn? Or someone.
2030 Dallas first - swap with SAS