Post Game: Bulls Survive Nikola

[WesPeace]

Few roster tweaks or one solid trade can still make a difference, like trading PWill for young defensive center. From my standpoint I would try to keep them all three, of course it depends on price, but I dont think they will expect unrealistic deals.

UFAs will go to whomever pays them the most. They won't be looking for realistic/unrealistic, they will be openly negotiating with 30 teams and take the highest offer. It's unlikely that they all end up on offers you want and that we think the most of each one of these players are willing to pay them the most and that if that happens they're also all reasonable deals.

Ayo I think will be exception here.. he will stay at home for a little bit less even.

[dougthonus]

Ayo I think will be exception here.. he will stay at home for a little bit less even.

They all probably have different reasons for seeking the most money beyond the standard reason of I just want the most money:
Coby - Ended up the most underpaid on his current deal and maybe has a chip on his shoulder about it
Ayo - Lowest career earnings of the group and has never had a big contract
Huerter - Career journeyman that's already been in 3 destinations and has little reason for loyalty

It wouldn't surprise me if any of the 3 would choose Chicago in an "all things being equal" scenario where we get the tie breaker, but I would guess none of the three give up meaningful dollars to be here.

[HomoSapien]

Ayo I think will be exception here.. he will stay at home for a little bit less even.

They all probably have different reasons for seeking the most money beyond the standard reason of I just want the most money:
Coby - Ended up the most underpaid on his current deal and maybe has a chip on his shoulder about it
Ayo - Lowest career earnings of the group and has never had a big contract
Huerter - Career journeyman that's already been in 3 destinations and has little reason for loyalty

It wouldn't surprise me if any of the 3 would choose Chicago in an "all things being equal" scenario where we get the tie breaker, but I would guess none of the three give up meaningful dollars to be here.

It's hard to expect anyone to give up meaningful money, but I will say that Huerter seems rejuvenated here. He seemed pretty unhappy in Sacramento, and sort of was headed towards obscurity. Given that, I wouldn't be surprised if he gives added weight to just being in a good situation.

[League Circles]

Ayo I think will be exception here.. he will stay at home for a little bit less even.

They all probably have different reasons for seeking the most money beyond the standard reason of I just want the most money:
Coby - Ended up the most underpaid on his current deal and maybe has a chip on his shoulder about it
Ayo - Lowest career earnings of the group and has never had a big contract
Huerter - Career journeyman that's already been in 3 destinations and has little reason for loyalty

It wouldn't surprise me if any of the 3 would choose Chicago in an "all things being equal" scenario where we get the tie breaker, but I would guess none of the three give up meaningful dollars to be here.

I think Coby and Ayo have far, far more reasons to cut us a deal in a sense. I mean I don't particularly ever expect a player to give a so called discount, but a few factors should help us:

1. The 5th year we can offer vs 4 from anyone else plus higher raises means that we can offer the most money while not necessarily using the most 2026 cap space
2. Being able to negotiate before FA starts is an advantage to us
3. Coby is in a position here that his agent surely will help him understand may not be duplicated elsewhere even if he's making more money. Remember Ben Gordon.
4. Ayo is from the area. Neither would need to move their lives and learn a new org and impress a coach that might not even have wanted them.
5. It's been said by player that it's not the money they care so much about (as they in theory can never spend it all), it's what the money represents. Thus, if these guys are paid fairly relative to Josh Giddey specifically, they won't be insulted almost no matter what. Thus org can honestly sell the players on "yeah you can get more to play for that other team because they're not trying to win". Like if Coby gets more than Josh, the respect issue is already taken care of.

The pure "most money" motivation is often oversimplified IMO.

[HomoSapien]

Ayo I think will be exception here.. he will stay at home for a little bit less even.

They all probably have different reasons for seeking the most money beyond the standard reason of I just want the most money:
Coby - Ended up the most underpaid on his current deal and maybe has a chip on his shoulder about it
Ayo - Lowest career earnings of the group and has never had a big contract
Huerter - Career journeyman that's already been in 3 destinations and has little reason for loyalty

It wouldn't surprise me if any of the 3 would choose Chicago in an "all things being equal" scenario where we get the tie breaker, but I would guess none of the three give up meaningful dollars to be here.

I think Coby and Ayo have far, far more reasons to cut us a deal in a sense. I mean I don't particularly ever expect a player to give a so called discount, but a few factors should help us:

1. The 5th year we can offer vs 4 from anyone else plus higher raises means that we can offer the most money while not necessarily using the most 2026 cap space
2. Being able to negotiate before FA starts is an advantage to us
3. Coby is in a position here that his agent surely will help him understand may not be duplicated elsewhere even if he's making more money. Remember Ben Gordon.
4. Ayo is from the area. Neither would need to move their lives and learn a new org and impress a coach that might not even have wanted them.
5. It's been said by player that it's not the money they care so much about (as they in theory can never spend it all), it's what the money represents. Thus, if these guys are paid fairly relative to Josh Giddey specifically, they won't be insulted almost no matter what. Thus org can honestly sell the players on "yeah you can get more to play for that other team because they're not trying to win". Like if Coby gets more than Josh, the respect issue is already taken care of.

The pure "most money" motivation is often oversimplified IMO.

I'll also add that Coby has been here for 7 years now, since he was 19. There seems to be a closeness between he and the organization because of that longevity. Plus, he bought a house in Chicago recently. I think he has roots to the city and team now and probably prefers to stay. Again, if someone is offering a substantially bigger contract then I'm sure he'd take it... but I think he genuinely wants to stay.

[Avery W]

Ayo I think will be exception here.. he will stay at home for a little bit less even.

They all probably have different reasons for seeking the most money beyond the standard reason of I just want the most money:
Coby - Ended up the most underpaid on his current deal and maybe has a chip on his shoulder about it
Ayo - Lowest career earnings of the group and has never had a big contract
Huerter - Career journeyman that's already been in 3 destinations and has little reason for loyalty

It wouldn't surprise me if any of the 3 would choose Chicago in an "all things being equal" scenario where we get the tie breaker, but I would guess none of the three give up meaningful dollars to be here.

It's hard to expect anyone to give up meaningful money, but I will say that Huerter seems rejuvenated here. He seemed pretty unhappy in Sacramento, and sort of was headed towards obscurity. Given that, I wouldn't be surprised if he gives added weight to just being in a good situation.

He has basically said as much already, that at this point he wants a good fit more than anything and he thinks he's found it here.

I think people underrate the factors that guys consider outside of just money (especially for a guy like Huerter who has pretty substantial career earnings already) and also overrate other teams' ability/willingness to pay them enough to make those things not matter at all.

Jones said similar things to Huerter about feeling something click here and wanting to stay for the fit. How many teams could use a Tre Jones right now? He could have entertained other suitors in the offseason, even if only for the bargaining power to coax AKME to pay him more to stay.

But not only did he not choose the highest bidder, he didn't even seek out the bids to begin with. Same with Coby and Ayo's current deals, in a less punishing RFA environment than Giddey faced.

Sometimes guys have a floor price that they won't go below, but aren't necessarily going to chase their ceiling price if otherwise satisfied and bought in where they are. The fact that they like playing with each other (and seemingly, for Billy) isn't nothing.

[drosestruts]

We are not keeping all three of Ayo, Coby and Huerter. So who are you dumping?

We're ~$14m below the tax

Expirings : Vuc 21M, Collins 18M, Carter 6M and Terry 5M..

We can clearly resign them all..

Why would we though??We need to upgrade our frontcourt.

Because they're good and the contribute to winning and one of our strengths is our depth and pace (which kind of enable eachother)

Furthermore I think it's overly simplistic to look at salary that would go to player x and believe it's possible to use that salary to obtain player y

We're likely over the cap but below the tax like most every team. We're unlikely to be players in free agency regardless of who we keep (not to mention the free agent center market isn't too pretty).

Bird in hand is better than two in the bush.

[drosestruts]

Also I agree with the posters saying they'll likely simply go where they're offered the most money

This is another cause for a cautious approach to me.

I see too many people advocating for trade one of the three and re-signing the others like the latter will be a forgone conclusion.

What happens when you trade one away, the trade doesn't improve the team (is this such a far-fetched concept give our FO's trade history), and then the remaining players decide they'd prefer to play somewhere else.

I like all three of Coby, Huerter, and Ayo. I think it'd be foolish to trade any of the three of them (especially if the reason for doing so was out of a concern over the ability ro retain them - cross that bridge when you get there people)

[dougthonus]

1. The 5th year we can offer vs 4 from anyone else plus higher raises means that we can offer the most money while not necessarily using the most 2026 cap space

This still means just offering more in a more advantageous way

2. Being able to negotiate before FA starts is an advantage to us

Sadly in practice, we know this isn't how it really works

3. Coby is in a position here that his agent surely will help him understand may not be duplicated elsewhere even if he's making more money. Remember Ben Gordon.

Do you think Ben Gordon regrets going to the Pistons? I don't. I think he thinks "Thank god I got paid more on my last deal". I also don't think any agent will help their client understand they should take less money. It goes against their fiduciary responsibility to the client as well as their own self interest in getting paid the most.

Agents more than anyone likely see that a "good situation" is year to year and giving a four year discount for what feels like a good situation but can end up bad a year later works against your client way more often than for your client.

4. Ayo is from the area. Neither would need to move their lives and learn a new org and impress a coach that might not even have wanted them.

Agreed, that if either really like the city / location that it certainly works in our favor.

5. It's been said by player that it's not the money they care so much about (as they in theory can never spend it all), it's what the money represents. Thus, if these guys are paid fairly relative to Josh Giddey specifically, they won't be insulted almost no matter what. Thus org can honestly sell the players on "yeah you can get more to play for that other team because they're not trying to win". Like if Coby gets more than Josh, the respect issue is already taken care of.

Agree that it's often about the respect, but the reality is that as soon as some other team offers more, you aren't respecting them by offering less regardless of whether you argue it is fair.

The pure "most money" motivation is often oversimplified IMO.

Total money as a motivation is over simplified, but it isn't over simplified as a predictor of outcomes. It almost always predicts the outcome, like to an absurd degree relative to almost anything in statistics. Like I'd wager it 95%+ of contract negotiations can be settled in this order:
1: Most money wins
2: If tie, team with better future wins
3: If tie, team with more preferable city wins

[League Circles]

1. The 5th year we can offer vs 4 from anyone else plus higher raises means that we can offer the most money while not necessarily using the most 2026 cap space

This still means just offering more in a more advantageous way

Well, more money to the player. Less from the team. A win win.

Do you think Ben Gordon regrets going to the Pistons? I don't. I think he thinks "Thank god I got paid more on my last deal". I also don't think any agent will help their client understand they should take less money. It goes against their fiduciary responsibility to the client as well as their own self interest in getting paid the most.

Agents more than anyone likely see that a "good situation" is year to year and giving a four year discount for what feels like a good situation but can end up bad a year later works against your client way more often than for your client.

Different types of players will have their agents prioritize different things within the fiduciary responsibility. Yes I think Ben Gordon probably regrets going to Detroit, where he was instantly lost in the crowd in a way that never came back. Good chance that doesn't happen elsewhere, especially in Chicago. Role is what yields money. The wrong role can tank a guy's career in a way that he can't reverse easily. You are right that a good situation can turn into a bad one sometimes, but being the leading scorer and longest tenured player on a Chicago team for a stable player's coach is about as good as it gets. Staying in Chicago, because of the role, increases the likely NEXT contract in a positive way. Agents are not obligated to recommend the max dollars over a deal. They may believe it's not in their client's best interests during that deal or beyond it.

Agreed, that if either really like the city / location that it certainly works in our favor.

It's not about liking the city or location in this instance, which is why I didn't mention Huerter in that way. Chicago is HOME for Ayo and Coby in a way that cannot be measured. Remember when Lebron went back to Cleveland?

5. It's been said by player that it's not the money they care so much about (as they in theory can never spend it all), it's what the money represents. Thus, if these guys are paid fairly relative to Josh Giddey specifically, they won't be insulted almost no matter what. Thus org can honestly sell the players on "yeah you can get more to play for that other team because they're not trying to win". Like if Coby gets more than Josh, the respect issue is already taken care of.

Agree that it's often about the respect, but the reality is that as soon as some other team offers more, you aren't respecting them by offering less regardless of whether you argue it is fair.

The pure "most money" motivation is often oversimplified IMO.

Total money as a motivation is over simplified, but it isn't over simplified as a predictor of outcomes. It almost always predicts the outcome, like to an absurd degree relative to almost anything in statistics. Like I'd wager it 95%+ of contract negotiations can be settled in this order:
1: Most money wins
2: If tie, team with better future wins
3: If tie, team with more preferable city wins[/quote]

Idk, we've seen a number of players take less to play for the Bulls, and they follow a predictable pattern. Boozer, Gasol, Wade etc. That's why I note that different guys have different motivations. Guys with unsure roles and without generational wealth will take the most money possible more often than guys who have played more, have firmer roles established, have made more money and have less to prove. I could easily see Coby taking as much as $5 less/year to stay with the Bulls over taking a questionable role on a questionable team for a new coach in a new, non-home city, IF we're still making him our highest paid player.

My hierarchy for these guys goes more like this:
1. Secure a regular playing time role
2. Maximize potential remaining career earnings
3. Maximize personal joy/fulfillment (involves role, team, city, family concerns
4. Maximize protected earnings for the duration of the proposed deal

[dougthonus]

Well, more money to the player. Less from the team. A win win.

It's not less from the team though. In the end, it is more from the team, but starting from the same dollar amount in year 1. It might be win/win from a cap structuring standpoint in specific circumstances if you are operating under the cap, but if we keep most of our players that will be irrelevant because we'll be operating over the cap anyway.

It is a negotiating strength, but the primary strength is that it lets you offer more money not that it lets you sign guys for less money.

Different types of players will have their agents prioritize different things within the fiduciary responsibility. Yes I think Ben Gordon probably regrets going to Detroit, where he was instantly lost in the crowd in a way that never came back. Good chance that doesn't happen elsewhere, especially in Chicago. Role is what yields money. The wrong role can tank a guy's career in a way that he can't reverse easily. You are right that a good situation can turn into a bad one sometimes, but being the leading scorer and longest tenured player on a Chicago team for a stable player's coach is about as good as it gets. Staying in Chicago, because of the role, increases the likely NEXT contract in a positive way. Agents are not obligated to recommend the max dollars over a deal. They may believe it's not in their client's best interests during that deal or beyond it.

I don't mean this as an insult, but I believe you made this up philosophically with no actual knowledge of how the industry works.

An agent once told me that he would never let a client sign for less money because the second he does, every other agent would use it against him in recruiting future clients. It's death to your career in a highly competitive absolutely cut throat field if your clients don't take the max offer or don't get a good contract. A single bad contract is worked against you and any history of it, and you are absolutely done.

Not only does this pass the common sense test, but it also matches almost exclusively what we see happen in reality with player decisions.

Idk, we've seen a number of players take less to play for the Bulls, and they follow a predictable pattern. Boozer, Gasol, Wade etc. That's why I note that different guys have different motivations. Guys with unsure roles and without generational wealth will take the most money possible more often than guys who have played more, have firmer roles established, have made more money and have less to prove. I could easily see Coby taking as much as $5 less/year to stay with the Bulls over taking a questionable role on a questionable team for a new coach in a new, non-home city, IF we're still making him our highest paid player.

My hierarchy for these guys goes more like this:
1. Secure a regular playing time role
2. Maximize potential remaining career earnings
3. Maximize personal joy/fulfillment (involves role, team, city, family concerns
4. Maximize protected earnings for the duration of the proposed deal

#4 on your hierarchy explains 95%+ of all decisions, so your hierarchy is philosophical and not practical. However, it still generally works out if we ignore #3, because #1 and #2 are both natural outcomes of doing #4.

[fleet]

NO SIX SEVEN BABY! The kids wont like it but the Cardiac Bulls are back!

Oh God.. I can already hear my daughters on my ears with that crap....

At least you know enough about this to understand it.

Spoiler: