Trade Talk (Part 18): Early Season Panic Edition

[KGdaBom]

Remember the Allen Iverson trade that never happened? Iverson was 30. Garnett was 29. The trade never happened and both players were on new teams within a year.

That's the context I like to think about the Ja Morant idea. Morant is 26. Edwards is 25. They are not that old, there is still a pretty long runway if you can add him to your core group you already have in place.

And I'll ask it this way....15 months ago, would you have traded Karl-Anthony Towns for Ja Morant?

If they threw in 5 FRPs I still wouldn't have.

[KGdaBom]

Delete this.

Go **** yourself

Delete this too.

You two need to play nice.

[KGdaBom]

As good as Randle is playing, how do we all feel about turning Randle into Nembhard?.

Nembhard isn’t even close to the caliber of player Julius Randle has been these last eight months. Julius’ numbers this season are that of a Top 10 NBA player - and closer to being the first guy after the four superstars than being Number 10 too. Is Nembhard even a Top 10 point guard?

Naz is a much closer approximation. I would rank them Randle >>> Nembhard > Naz.

This season through 8 games. Nembhard is FG% .398, 3P% .318, FWIW

I would do Naz for Nembhard. Sorry Naz.

[dschroeder01]

Remember the Allen Iverson trade that never happened? Iverson was 30. Garnett was 29. The trade never happened and both players were on new teams within a year.

That's the context I like to think about the Ja Morant idea. Morant is 26. Edwards is 25. They are not that old, there is still a pretty long runway if you can add him to your core group you already have in place.

And I'll ask it this way....15 months ago, would you have traded Karl-Anthony Towns for Ja Morant?

Additional context on Ja is that his game is SOLELY based on extraordinary athleticism at this point. He hasn't developed the skills necessary to balance any drop in being a 99th percentile athlete which he no longer appears to be.

Iverson wasn't a model of efficiency, but he didn't rely on getting all the way to the rim as much as Ja does. He was also a better defender and played in a different era where spacing wasn't as much of a focus. Iverson's fit with KG would have been a lot different than Ja fitting with Ant. KG was one of the most complementary superstars ever. He needed an alpha scorer. Fitting Ja (or Iverson) with Ant is a different proposition as Ant's best attribute is being that alpha scorer. A guard next to Ant should be able to play off the ball and Ja being a 31% three pt shooter would be problematic.

[winforlose]

Remember the Allen Iverson trade that never happened? Iverson was 30. Garnett was 29. The trade never happened and both players were on new teams within a year.

That's the context I like to think about the Ja Morant idea. Morant is 26. Edwards is 25. They are not that old, there is still a pretty long runway if you can add him to your core group you already have in place.

And I'll ask it this way....15 months ago, would you have traded Karl-Anthony Towns for Ja Morant?

Additional context on Ja is that his game is SOLELY based on extraordinary athleticism at this point. He hasn't developed the skills necessary to balance any drop in being a 99th percentile athlete which he no longer appears to be.

Iverson wasn't a model of efficiency, but he didn't rely on getting all the way to the rim as much as Ja does. He was also a better defender and played in a different era where spacing wasn't as much of a focus. Iverson's fit with KG would have been a lot different than Ja fitting with Ant. KG was one of the most complementary superstars ever. He needed an alpha scorer. Fitting Ja (or Iverson) with Ant is a different proposition as Ant's best attribute is being that alpha scorer. A guard next to Ant should be able to play off the ball and Ja being a 31% three pt shooter would be problematic.

If Ant is the constant focus of the defense, and Jaden and Randle are both dangerous, does that give Ja enough space to cook a single defender or dish to open shooters. Is Ja the drive and kick distributor that makes everything easy for everyone else?

[dschroeder01]

If Ant is the constant focus of the defense, and Jaden and Randle are both dangerous, does that give Ja enough space to cook a single defender or dish to open shooters. Is Ja the drive and kick distributor that makes everything easy for everyone else?

Nothing about Ja's game suggests he'd be a good secondary perimeter player. Maybe he could adjust, but it's a huge gamble and that's just one aspect of the trade.

How does trading for Ja impact the defense?
What's his next contract look like and how do you sustain a team salary structure that incorporates his big money?
How does Ja age given how his play has already slipped and his injury issues?

[winforlose]

If Ant is the constant focus of the defense, and Jaden and Randle are both dangerous, does that give Ja enough space to cook a single defender or dish to open shooters. Is Ja the drive and kick distributor that makes everything easy for everyone else?

Nothing about Ja's game suggests he'd be a good secondary perimeter player. Maybe he could adjust, but it's a huge gamble and that's just one aspect of the trade.

How does trading for Ja impact the defense?
What's his next contract look like and how do you sustain a team salary structure that incorporates his big money?
How does Ja age given how his play has already slipped and his injury issues?

Ja would obviously be the primary initiator. His job would be to take the pressure off of Ant by attacking and either finishing or dishing to open shooters. When the defense has to account for Ja, Ant is freed up to catch in motion and attack the rim or just catch and shoot. But you are correct that Ja needs to be able to hit 3s, and that is an area he has truly struggled. It is also true that Ja needs to stay healthy, and I wonder if that is easier if he is not the #1. If he doesn’t have to do as much or play as well, maybe he can save more energy for defense and take less contact inside. The theory is that even at their best, Memphis never had the talent surrounding Ja that Ant. Jaden, Randle, and Rudy would represent. Even if we sent Rudy out to acquire Ja, we would presumably also arrange a center to come in who can do some of what Rudy does, and Joan would hopefully develop into a capable starting C by 27-28.

[dschroeder01]

If Ant is the constant focus of the defense, and Jaden and Randle are both dangerous, does that give Ja enough space to cook a single defender or dish to open shooters. Is Ja the drive and kick distributor that makes everything easy for everyone else?

Nothing about Ja's game suggests he'd be a good secondary perimeter player. Maybe he could adjust, but it's a huge gamble and that's just one aspect of the trade.

How does trading for Ja impact the defense?
What's his next contract look like and how do you sustain a team salary structure that incorporates his big money?
How does Ja age given how his play has already slipped and his injury issues?

Ja would obviously be the primary initiator. His job would be to take the pressure off of Ant by attacking and either finishing or dishing to open shooters. When the defense has to account for Ja, Ant is freed up to catch in motion and attack the rim or just catch and shoot. But you are correct that Ja needs to be able to hit 3s, and that is an area he has truly struggled. It is also true that Ja needs to stay healthy, and I wonder if that is easier if he is not the #1. If he doesn’t have to do as much or play as well, maybe he can save more energy for defense and take less contact inside. The theory is that even at their best, Memphis never had the talent surrounding Ja that Ant. Jaden, Randle, and Rudy would represent. Even if we sent Rudy out to acquire Ja, we would presumably also arrange a center to come in who can do some of what Rudy does, and Joan would hopefully develop into a capable starting C by 27-28.

So Ja just needs to a whole bunch of things he's never shown he can do? This is a guy who hasn't done ANYTHING substantial in the NBA. He has major off court character concerns and has now in process of running off a 2nd coach in less than a year. Dude can't stay healthy, relies more on athleticism than anyone and hasn't bothered or is unable to develop skills. Trading for him seems like an utter desperation move.

Also, open shooters? The Wolves are surely trading DDV in this scenario and likely Naz as well. A lineup up Ja, Ant, Jaden, Julius, and Rudy is woefully light on shooting unless you assume that Jaden maintains this outlier pace in his shooting. Teams are never going to sag off Ant so that leaves Ja driving into a clogged lane just like he's facing now.

[Slim Tubby]

Rachel Nichols still defending Jimmy Butler.

That's not all Witch Hazel has done for Jimmy...

Sent from my G54 using RealGM mobile app

[winforlose]

Nothing about Ja's game suggests he'd be a good secondary perimeter player. Maybe he could adjust, but it's a huge gamble and that's just one aspect of the trade.

How does trading for Ja impact the defense?
What's his next contract look like and how do you sustain a team salary structure that incorporates his big money?
How does Ja age given how his play has already slipped and his injury issues?

Ja would obviously be the primary initiator. His job would be to take the pressure off of Ant by attacking and either finishing or dishing to open shooters. When the defense has to account for Ja, Ant is freed up to catch in motion and attack the rim or just catch and shoot. But you are correct that Ja needs to be able to hit 3s, and that is an area he has truly struggled. It is also true that Ja needs to stay healthy, and I wonder if that is easier if he is not the #1. If he doesn’t have to do as much or play as well, maybe he can save more energy for defense and take less contact inside. The theory is that even at their best, Memphis never had the talent surrounding Ja that Ant. Jaden, Randle, and Rudy would represent. Even if we sent Rudy out to acquire Ja, we would presumably also arrange a center to come in who can do some of what Rudy does, and Joan would hopefully develop into a capable starting C by 27-28.

So Ja just needs to a whole bunch of things he's never shown he can do? This is a guy who hasn't done ANYTHING substantial in the NBA. He has major off court character concerns and has now in process of running off a 2nd coach in less than a year. Dude can't stay healthy, relies more on athleticism than anyone and hasn't bothered or is unable to develop skills. Trading for him seems like an utter desperation move.

Also, open shooters? The Wolves are surely trading DDV in this scenario and likely Naz as well. A lineup up Ja, Ant, Jaden, Julius, and Rudy is woefully light on shooting unless you assume that Jaden maintains this outlier pace in his shooting. Teams are never going to sag off Ant so that leaves Ja driving into a clogged lane just like he's facing now.

1. Ja has never been on a team where he is not the #1 option and the focus of the defense. Will that change his game, I have no idea. I suspect it will open things up for him in a way that elevates him, but I cannot promise it. I also can point out that Ant started as a bad 3 point shooter and improved every year. Is Ja capable with more catch and shoot opportunities and more open looks, I have no idea.

2. I already said any trade I make for Ja moves Rudy not Naz or DDV. I would want a C coming back and that C would need to be capable of playing with our starters. One easy way to do it is Rudy and Joan for Ja and Edey. Your point about Edey not floor spacing is correct. In that situation Edey plays PNR with Ja (something Ja thrives in,) and dishes frequently to open shooters when the defense is unbalanced.

3. You are 100% correct that off the court issues will be an issue. I have no idea if Ja can settle down or if he is just a head case. What I know is Rudy is 33 and aging. If I could turn him into a 26 year old elite guard with resale value I would. Especially if they also included getting a young NBA ready C who fits the Ant time line, and having Rocco in my back pocket to hopefully develop as the backup C of the future. Ja/Ant/Jaden/Julius/Edey with DDV/TSJ/Clark/Naz/Rocco as the backups (Replace Rocco with best available free agent this year, hope for him to be our backup C next year.) That is a team that could be dangerous. Especially if Dilly develops or we move off him and get someone else who looks good. Newton is showing some interesting progress in the G.

Edit to add: Spotrac says Gobert/Joan/Dilly out for Ja/Edey in works

[BlacJacMac]

As good as Randle is playing, how do we all feel about turning Randle into Nembhard?.

Nembhard isn’t even close to the caliber of player Julius Randle has been these last eight months. Julius’ numbers this season are that of a Top 10 NBA player - and closer to being the first guy after the four superstars than being Number 10 too. Is Nembhard even a Top 10 point guard?

Naz is a much closer approximation. I would rank them Randle >>> Nembhard = Naz.

This season through 8 games. Nembhard is FG% .398, 3P% .318, FWIW. His usage jumped from 16.3% to 25.8%, and he is not good enough to carry the load for the injured Pacers. His RB has slipped from 3.3 to 1.8, and his ATO has gotten worse too.

Agreed. I like Nembhard a lot, but his reputation is getting mythical somehow.

I also think some of his success is likely a product of Celisle's system.

[BlacJacMac]

I also can point out that Ant started as a bad 3 point shooter and improved every year. Is Ja capable with more catch and shoot opportunities and more open looks, I have no idea.

I have a pretty good idea...

Ant was a 33% shooter as a rookie. He hasn't been below 36% since then.

Ja is a career 31% shooter, with a career high of 34%. He's currently on his 4th straight season of shooting 31% or worse.

Career:
Ja: 425/1372, 31%
Ant: 1141/3131, 36%

Nearly 1400 3PAs is a pretty big sample.

[winforlose]

I also can point out that Ant started as a bad 3 point shooter and improved every year. Is Ja capable with more catch and shoot opportunities and more open looks, I have no idea.

I have a pretty good idea...

Ant was a 33% shooter as a rookie. He hasn't been below 36% since then.

Ja is a career 31% shooter, with a career high of 34%. He's currently on his 4th straight season of shooting 31% or worse.

Career:
Ja: 425/1372, 31%
Ant: 1141/3131, 36%

Nearly 1400 3PAs is a pretty big sample.

Fair, but how many of those are open or wide open? How many are pull up and how many are catch and shoot? My point is that playing beside so much offensive talent will create new situations and opportunities.

[BlacJacMac]

I also can point out that Ant started as a bad 3 point shooter and improved every year. Is Ja capable with more catch and shoot opportunities and more open looks, I have no idea.

I have a pretty good idea...

Ant was a 33% shooter as a rookie. He hasn't been below 36% since then.

Ja is a career 31% shooter, with a career high of 34%. He's currently on his 4th straight season of shooting 31% or worse.

Career:
Ja: 425/1372, 31%
Ant: 1141/3131, 36%

Nearly 1400 3PAs is a pretty big sample.

Fair, but how many of those are open or wide open? How many are pull up and how many are catch and shoot? My point is that playing beside so much offensive talent will create new situations and opportunities.

I just don't see it.

I'm not a Ja fan anyways, but I can't see how you can do anything but play him on the ball. He just doesn't have off the ball skills.

Like when Atlanta tried to play Trae and Murray together and it was a disaster because neither was effective without dominating the ball.

[winforlose]

I have a pretty good idea...

Ant was a 33% shooter as a rookie. He hasn't been below 36% since then.

Ja is a career 31% shooter, with a career high of 34%. He's currently on his 4th straight season of shooting 31% or worse.

Career:
Ja: 425/1372, 31%
Ant: 1141/3131, 36%

Nearly 1400 3PAs is a pretty big sample.

Fair, but how many of those are open or wide open? How many are pull up and how many are catch and shoot? My point is that playing beside so much offensive talent will create new situations and opportunities.

I just don't see it.

I'm not a Ja fan anyways, but I can't see how you can do anything but play him on the ball. He just doesn't have off the ball skills.

Like when Atlanta tried to play Trae and Murray together and it was a disaster because neither was effective without dominating the ball.

Ant has already been good off ball. Before Mike was relegated to sitting in the corner Ant was still Ant with Mike running the show. Ja needs the ball, but when gets off of it, he is passing to guys like Ant, Jaden, Randle, Naz, and DDV who can all shoot or attack. This allows Ja to circle back out and possibly drain open corner or above the break 3s. My point is I don’t know that Ja has ever had this little defensive resistance to contend with. The thought of him being able to drive one on one and dish when help comes (kinda like SGA,) is very intriguing. I am not claiming it won’t be an adjustment, but it COULD work. If not, we move Ja and hopefully get value, especially if his off court issues resolve in our culture.

[BlacJacMac]

Fair, but how many of those are open or wide open? How many are pull up and how many are catch and shoot? My point is that playing beside so much offensive talent will create new situations and opportunities.

I just don't see it.

I'm not a Ja fan anyways, but I can't see how you can do anything but play him on the ball. He just doesn't have off the ball skills.

Like when Atlanta tried to play Trae and Murray together and it was a disaster because neither was effective without dominating the ball.

Ant has already been good off ball. Before Mike was relegated to sitting in the corner Ant was still Ant with Mike running the show. Ja needs the ball, but when gets off of it, he is passing to guys like Ant, Jaden, Randle, Naz, and DDV who can all shoot or attack. This allows Ja to circle back out and possibly drain open corner or above the break 3s. My point is I don’t know that Ja has ever had this little defensive resistance to contend with. The thought of him being able to drive one on one and dish when help comes (kinda like SGA,) is very intriguing. I am not claiming it won’t be an adjustment, but it COULD work. If not, we move Ja and hopefully get value, especially if his off court issues resolve in our culture.

You're underestimating his teams.

Last year (on a team that was 65th on offense and 10th in defense) he played with:
Bane: 19 PPG (48/39/89). 6.1 3PA, 5.3 APG.
JJJ: 22 PPG (48/38/78). 5.3 3PA, 2.1 APG.
Aldama: 12.5 PPG (48/37/69), 5.0 3PA, 3 APG.

And 4 other guys that averaged between 7 and 10 PPG that all shot between 35 and 44% from 3.

He missed all but 9 games the year before, so we'll skip that one.

The previous year he had Bane, JJJ, Brooks, Kennard and other solid roleplayers.

[shangrila]

I have a pretty good idea...

Ant was a 33% shooter as a rookie. He hasn't been below 36% since then.

Ja is a career 31% shooter, with a career high of 34%. He's currently on his 4th straight season of shooting 31% or worse.

Career:
Ja: 425/1372, 31%
Ant: 1141/3131, 36%

Nearly 1400 3PAs is a pretty big sample.

Fair, but how many of those are open or wide open? How many are pull up and how many are catch and shoot? My point is that playing beside so much offensive talent will create new situations and opportunities.

I just don't see it.

I'm not a Ja fan anyways, but I can't see how you can do anything but play him on the ball. He just doesn't have off the ball skills.

Like when Atlanta tried to play Trae and Murray together and it was a disaster because neither was effective without dominating the ball.

You'd need to look beyond the traditional off ball shooter/spacer role and get creative. For an example, think of the difference between early and late season Jaden last year. From him just sitting in the corner to him cutting into gaps. It's the same overall concept of being off ball but a different application.

Ja on this team could work. It would involve a fundamental change in the team's identity, as they'd need to become even faster and more transition oriented, but it could work. And if it requires buy in then I have faith in Finch for that; for whatever complaints people might have about him as a coach, no one can deny that he's excellent at working with players and particularly star players.

[dschroeder01]

Fair, but how many of those are open or wide open? How many are pull up and how many are catch and shoot? My point is that playing beside so much offensive talent will create new situations and opportunities.

I just don't see it.

I'm not a Ja fan anyways, but I can't see how you can do anything but play him on the ball. He just doesn't have off the ball skills.

Like when Atlanta tried to play Trae and Murray together and it was a disaster because neither was effective without dominating the ball.

Ant has already been good off ball. Before Mike was relegated to sitting in the corner Ant was still Ant with Mike running the show. Ja needs the ball, but when gets off of it, he is passing to guys like Ant, Jaden, Randle, Naz, and DDV who can all shoot or attack. This allows Ja to circle back out and possibly drain open corner or above the break 3s. My point is I don’t know that Ja has ever had this little defensive resistance to contend with. The thought of him being able to drive one on one and dish when help comes (kinda like SGA,) is very intriguing. I am not claiming it won’t be an adjustment, but it COULD work. If not, we move Ja and hopefully get value, especially if his off court issues resolve in our culture.

Conley's highest usage in his time in MN is 16.8% with Ant being in the 31-32 ish range since Mike has been here. Ja is over 30 for his career. Ant has never played with someone that has the ball that much. Even with Julius playing at an all-star level this year, Randle is only at 28 usage. Mike may have started more possessions initially when he was first here, but Ant has always been the guy making the plays.

It's not just Ant either. Trading Rudy for Ja creates a math problem with lots of downstream impact as you can't just swap out a guy with a usage of 12 for a guy with 30. There's only 1 ball. Even if you could maintain Ant's usage, others will have to lose opportunities to let Ja do his thing. Are we ok with Jaden and Julius getting fewer opportunities?

FWIW, your point about Ja never having played with as much talent as the Wolves would have is a frequent argument for adding another high usage player to a talented team. It's not that simple though with multiple examples of teams failing despite adding "talent" to a good roster. When it does work, it's almost always because guys are really smart or efficient players that can adapt their games. Ja Morant has only proven that he's the opposite of that kind of player.

[dschroeder01]

Fair, but how many of those are open or wide open? How many are pull up and how many are catch and shoot? My point is that playing beside so much offensive talent will create new situations and opportunities.

I just don't see it.

I'm not a Ja fan anyways, but I can't see how you can do anything but play him on the ball. He just doesn't have off the ball skills.

Like when Atlanta tried to play Trae and Murray together and it was a disaster because neither was effective without dominating the ball.

You'd need to look beyond the traditional off ball shooter/spacer role and get creative. For an example, think of the difference between early and late season Jaden last year. From him just sitting in the corner to him cutting into gaps. It's the same overall concept of being off ball but a different application.

Ja on this team could work. It would involve a fundamental change in the team's identity, as they'd need to become even faster and more transition oriented, but it could work. And if it requires buy in then I have faith in Finch for that; for whatever complaints people might have about him as a coach, no one can deny that he's excellent at working with players and particularly star players.

I know it's not apples to apples, but I couldn't resist.

[dschroeder01]

BTW, If you haven't, I'd listen to Dane Moore's podcast with Jace Frederick from this week. They touched on the PG issue with some good points on either side.

One stat is that the Wolves are really good on offense without a PG this year and are a top 5 offense overall. Adding Ja would be a move to boost our offense, but is that what we need? Jace had a good point that playing without a PG likely won't work as well in the playoffs, but does a move to get Ja actually fix the playoffs? Ja immediately becomes a guy that teams will hunt on D and it'll be tough to hide that without Rudy. We have to be able to stop teams from scoring too.