Ridiculous the amount of games missed in recent years with advanced medical knowledge

[frica]

I think we should take pace off the table as an explanatory factor, given that pace was faster in the Seventies and early Eighties. Now, it may be that the combination of 1) recently increased pace and 2) one or more things that have changed since the Seventies (such as the players being heavier, more lateral movement, etc.) explains the issue. But pace alone cannot be primary reason.

Or people use the term "pace" differently, but aren't clear about it.

Either possessions per game, or inter-play pace, or maybe something completely different.

[Outside]

According to official stats, most 3pt shots are open or wide open so it seems that teams don't close out the three aggressively, at least in the regular season.

You can also turn it around and say players only shoot open shots (generally).

I think there are multiple factors at play here. Modern offenses are designed to use multiple three-point shooting threats to space the floor, and with defenses scrambling to cover all that space, somebody with eventually be open for a three. And given that strategy, defenses often choose to leave certain players open for threes while putting the defensive emphasis on the better shooters. They'll double-team Steph and leave Draymond wide open, but any three by Steph is more valuable than an open three by Draymond.

Offenses then counter:

-- Multiple screening actions to get their better shooters open
-- Move the ball until someone is open
-- Drive to collapse the defense and then kick for an open three
-- Shoot threes in transition before the defense gets set
-- Better shooters pull up for an open three from 5-10 ft behind the line rather than a contested one closer in

Getting fouled on a three is the most valuable offensive possession, but shooting an open three is near the top of the value scale. Offenses are doing everything they can to get open threes. Defenses have to give up something, especially with all that space to cover, so by design, they give up open threes by worse shooters. The end result is lots of open threes.

[jalengreen]

According to official stats, most 3pt shots are open or wide open so it seems that teams don't close out the three aggressively, at least in the regular season.



I think there have always been injuries. Guys are load managing more because as a few posters have said, they want to have longer careers instead of running themselves into the ground after a few seasons and also be more fresh for the playoffs. And the teams are behind that as well. Also notable there are plenty of guys in the modern NBA that hardly load manage. Like Jokic and SGA who play practically every game...

The classification of "Open" includes plenty of shots where a defense is trying their hardest to contest.

- In 2019 when he averaged 36 PPG, 54% of Harden's 3PA were "Open" even while 91% of his 3PA were pull-ups. He wasn't dribbling into wide open shots, just creating separation himself. Probably the highest difficulty 3PT shooter ever and still >50% of them were 'Open'

- In 2016 when he averaged 30 PPG, 78% of Steph's 3PA were "Open". 68% in 2021 when he averaged 32 PPG. Definitely plenty of effort to contest those shots. (72% in 2022 playoffs, 80% in 2018 playoffs, 78% in 2017 playoffs)

[Doctor MJ]

I think we should take pace off the table as an explanatory factor, given that pace was faster in the Seventies and early Eighties. Now, it may be that the combination of 1) recently increased pace and 2) one or more things that have changed since the Seventies (such as the players being heavier, more lateral movement, etc.) explains the issue. But pace alone cannot be primary reason.

Or people use the term "pace" differently, but aren't clear about it.

Either possessions per game, or inter-play pace, or maybe something completely different.

Yeah it's confusing but I think that Pace is not the answer but "pace" probably isn't an inaccurate statement.

Really what I think the key thing going on here is acceleration, particularly in non-forward directions. I think, for example, that the Euro Step is extremely hard on the body, and while some guys can do it seemingly forever without issue, a lot of other guys will feel that ominous "pop" sooner or later.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

RS winning isn't valued anything like playoff winning

Because half the team make the playoffs.

There are 6 divisions - have just 6 teams make the playoffs, with the teams with the top 2 W-L records getting 1st round byes.

There would be a lot less load management and a lot less players ducking games (like back-to-backs) knowing you have to win your division to make the playoffs.

So 1/3 into the season half the teams will be tanking, with no hope to get into the PO.
Quite the opposite, you need more teams believing till the end the can make it. And a better prize for being #1 or #2 in the conference.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

Eliminating back to backs is an easy first step

What makes it "easy"?

[Ryoga Hibiki]

There is also an incredibly complex and complicated political aspect which most people, kcktiny included, seem to omit when discussing these changes. The NBA is a business capitalizing on basketball... The idea that the NBA would sacrifice revenue for "the integrity of the game" is unfortunately unrealistic

Thank you for that scholarly insight.

But the question was how to get players to play in more games.

The Play-In has been the best major change to the post-season since the NBA got rid of 5-game series.

How is adding even more playoff teams going to address the issue of getting players to play in more games?

I think players should play less games, actually.
But I think thus proposal spills into the tanking discussion, rather than player injuries.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

The Play-In has been the best major change to the post-season since the NBA got rid of 5-game series.

Has it? I haven't even noticed that it exists, and it certainly has done nothing to curtail tanking.

[quote]

the bottom 3-4 teams in the League will tank anyway.
But the play in gave teams in the 8-12 range in each conference something to fight for till th end, and those in the 4-7 a very strong incentive to not drop games to avoid the play in.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

You think that because they play slower and more lackadaisically that they are more injury prone? Interesting take.

You can't possibly believe this. Players didn't even have to guard beyond the three point line in previous eras.

Playing zone defense and only playing between the 3pt lines on offense is very energy conserving. Go to any YMCA and you can watch 40 yr olds stand at the 3pt line and chuck and then play 3-2 zone on defense. We called todays NBA. "Old white man basketball" in the 90s.

Lol

[Ryoga Hibiki]

Seems like many players, particularly stars are missing lots of games again. With the increased medical knowledge and processes in recent years it makes no sense. It's likely alot of preserving players, can only think of for possible playoff good health and longer careers, but that doesn't lead to better results, better investment and better fan (the ones financing it) experience. Certainly does no good for comparison with players from other eras, regardless of how good the stats may look. A worker turning up 3 days in a 5 day working week is not the asset another that's there almost every day is. It looks very fake as well.

So, this isn't really how "advanced medical knowledge" works (referencing the thread title).

The physical stresses from the tempo and aggressive lateral movement of today's game are different than in ages past. That's not something that medicine can just magically go away. There's a reason we're seeing these Achilles injuries and so forth.

We have surgeries that work better, we have better training regimens and the like, but the joints these guy have are the same. And the taller guys who are stressing their joints are putting new stressors that guys in ages past didn't have. The game has a LOT more movement than it used to, beyond the baseline to baseline runs.

Guys missing games sucks, no doubt. But some guys are more or less durable than others, and the fundamental nature of the game has changed, too.

And then the idea that "older eras were much more intense and had more pace" is off. The pace was certainly higher, but they were doing less. There was a lot more running straight up and down for baseline jumpers, and considerably less action in the key. And then in the later 90s and early 2000s, you had a lot of set action where you were in the halfcourt waiting for basic things to happen. Less over impact on the players.

It's just not useful or contextually-valid to compare the earlier eras to know and complain that "advanced medical knowledge" should be solving this problem.

Just the much more physicality and contact makes the past eras, particularly 80s to 00s much more higher injury chances.

It's not that "physicality" that cause lower limbs and soft tissue injuries. It's repeated explosive closeouts and change of directions, putting more pressure on our tendons and muscles than what the can handle.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

so players are playing less and what are we getting?
in 1998 41 guys age 34 and over played
so far in 2026 we have 29,
And that is with more roster spots available.

So less guys are playing to an older age.

Minutes played - last year Bridges easily led league and had over 3.000 minutes
1997 21 guys were over 3,000, and the 2nd place finisher in 2025 would have finished 41st in 1997.

If the game is giving us a situation where star players play less games in a season and then their careers arent even longer, you have an issue.
If it it due to the way the game is being played, then they need to look at this and figure out what tweaks will make it healthier for the players.

This might mean that the 1997 game was more suited for older guys than the 2025 one.
And it totally passes the eye test, as it used to be about strength, size and position, while now it's about mobility and agility. The latters degrade much faster with age.

[ReggiesKnicks]

I think we should take pace off the table as an explanatory factor, given that pace was faster in the Seventies and early Eighties. Now, it may be that the combination of 1) recently increased pace and 2) one or more things that have changed since the Seventies (such as the players being heavier, more lateral movement, etc.) explains the issue. But pace alone cannot be primary reason.

Or people use the term "pace" differently, but aren't clear about it.

Either possessions per game, or inter-play pace, or maybe something completely different.

Yeah it's confusing but I think that Pace is not the answer but "pace" probably isn't an inaccurate statement.

Really what I think the key thing going on here is acceleration, particularly in non-forward directions. I think, for example, that the Euro Step is extremely hard on the body, and while some guys can do it seemingly forever without issue, a lot of other guys will feel that ominous "pop" sooner or later.

The Pace of the game is faster not in the sense of using the term Pace to describe the number of possessions. Instead, the term Pace is significantly higher when applied to the Pace in which a player plays at for each single possession. The amount of quick-twitch movements, start and stops, accel/decel, and repetitive movements.

The main culprit to soft-tissue injuries in the current NBA is due to repetitive strain (overuse), and the reality is there isn't a clear answer to remedy these injuries. In fact, if you took away all the modern technology and medicine, the amount of soft-tissue injuries would be exponentially higher. As good as modern medicine is, the increase in Pace on a per-possession basis in the NBA having increased exponentially since the early 2000s is the key problem.

There are ways to decrease the likelihood of these soft tissue injuries, but unfortunately for the league it requires them to value the player over the money.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

According to official stats, most 3pt shots are open or wide open so it seems that teams don't close out the three aggressively, at least in the regular season.



I think there have always been injuries. Guys are load managing more because as a few posters have said, they want to have longer careers instead of running themselves into the ground after a few seasons and also be more fresh for the playoffs. And the teams are behind that as well. Also notable there are plenty of guys in the modern NBA that hardly load manage. Like Jokic and SGA who play practically every game...

first you must check the definition of open and wide open. Last year it was funny for me to notice that Wemby and Rudy blocked several "open" shots.
But, most important, what happens when a defense contests a 3pt opportunity is that the player will be dissuaded to shoot. Very few guys have the talent to actually elevate and let it fly when they have a defender in their face (that's what made MPj very underrated, imo).
Your point reminds me the survivorship bias plane image.

[Doctor MJ]

Or people use the term "pace" differently, but aren't clear about it.

Either possessions per game, or inter-play pace, or maybe something completely different.

Yeah it's confusing but I think that Pace is not the answer but "pace" probably isn't an inaccurate statement.

Really what I think the key thing going on here is acceleration, particularly in non-forward directions. I think, for example, that the Euro Step is extremely hard on the body, and while some guys can do it seemingly forever without issue, a lot of other guys will feel that ominous "pop" sooner or later.

The Pace of the game is faster not in the sense of using the term Pace to describe the number of possessions. Instead, the term Pace is significantly higher when applied to the Pace in which a player plays at for each single possession. The amount of quick-twitch movements, start and stops, accel/decel, and repetitive movements.

The main culprit to soft-tissue injuries in the current NBA is due to repetitive strain (overuse), and the reality is there isn't a clear answer to remedy these injuries. In fact, if you took away all the modern technology and medicine, the amount of soft-tissue injuries would be exponentially higher. As good as modern medicine is, the increase in Pace on a per-possession basis in the NBA having increased exponentially since the early 2000s is the key problem.

There are ways to decrease the likelihood of these soft tissue injuries, but unfortunately for the league it requires them to value the player over the money.

Co-signed with all of this and appreciate the specific phrasing you use which gets into more medical and athlete lingo.

Another thought:

I really do think some guys have considerably "harder" sort-tissue than others and this is not stuff that historical scouting can pick up before injuries occur, a bit like in football some guys are more prone to concussions and CTE degeneration than others. While it might result in entirely new problems, I feel like as a young athlete it would sure be nice to know if there are things your body is capable of doing but not capable of doing repetitively without severe injury, particularly when there are other athletes who are capable and more resistant to injury.

I think about a Giannis specifically here and the sheer amount of stress (force/area) someone of his size puts on his soft tissues with the Euro step. Obviously he hasn't had an injury-free run, but the fact that he's poised to have his career high PPG at age 31 with this extreme-physical-stress style of play and I think he's just got a remarkable body.

It would have made sense if Giannis were a shell of himself at this point, and he absolutely isn't. One of the great physical specimens we've ever seen in the history of the sport.

[falcolombardi]

According to official stats, most 3pt shots are open or wide open so it seems that teams don't close out the three aggressively, at least in the regular season.



I think there have always been injuries. Guys are load managing more because as a few posters have said, they want to have longer careers instead of running themselves into the ground after a few seasons and also be more fresh for the playoffs. And the teams are behind that as well. Also notable there are plenty of guys in the modern NBA that hardly load manage. Like Jokic and SGA who play practically every game...

first you must check the definition of open and wide open. Last year it was funny for me to notice that Wemby and Rudy blocked several "open" shots.
But, most important, what happens when a defense contests a 3pt opportunity is that the player will be dissuaded to shoot. Very few guys have the talent to actually elevate and let it fly when they have a defender in their face (that's what made MPj very underrated, imo).
Your point reminds me the survivorship bias plane image.

Also gotta undestand cameras dont actually know context of each shot, they dont differentiate a shot being "open" because the shooter took a big jump back to give himself space (increasing the difficulty heavily) from a catch and shot with enough time to even take a dribble before starting the jumpshot

[migya]

So, this isn't really how "advanced medical knowledge" works (referencing the thread title).

The physical stresses from the tempo and aggressive lateral movement of today's game are different than in ages past. That's not something that medicine can just magically go away. There's a reason we're seeing these Achilles injuries and so forth.

We have surgeries that work better, we have better training regimens and the like, but the joints these guy have are the same. And the taller guys who are stressing their joints are putting new stressors that guys in ages past didn't have. The game has a LOT more movement than it used to, beyond the baseline to baseline runs.

Guys missing games sucks, no doubt. But some guys are more or less durable than others, and the fundamental nature of the game has changed, too.

And then the idea that "older eras were much more intense and had more pace" is off. The pace was certainly higher, but they were doing less. There was a lot more running straight up and down for baseline jumpers, and considerably less action in the key. And then in the later 90s and early 2000s, you had a lot of set action where you were in the halfcourt waiting for basic things to happen. Less over impact on the players.

It's just not useful or contextually-valid to compare the earlier eras to know and complain that "advanced medical knowledge" should be solving this problem.

Just the much more physicality and contact makes the past eras, particularly 80s to 00s much more higher injury chances.

It's not that "physicality" that cause lower limbs and soft tissue injuries. It's repeated explosive closeouts and change of directions, putting more pressure on our tendons and muscles than what the can handle.

There should be and likely is exercises and ways to prepare for that.

Getting hit in various ways is higher risk than those movements, in any sport and situation.