Justin Champagnie, & it's about time!

[nate33]

From the Bilal thread:

I don't understand what's going on with Champagnie. Middleton playing 30 mpg, and even Riley for 4, but no time for JC? Seems He could even take Vukcivic's minutes.

Keefe played Champagnie enough last year that it seems unlikely he doesn't see how good the kid is.

If he were on another team now, & I had the chance to trade for him, I would have no problem giving a mid-late R1 pick for Justin Champagnie.

I think the Wizards will indeed trade Champagnie. It's a little like the Deni Avdija situation in that he signed to an incredibly cheap contract but we are the last team in the league that can really benefit from such a cheap deal. We should try and trade him to a veteran team who will value both his on-the-court contributions and his negligible cap footprint.

[ledell_gumbo]

I agree that a trade seems likely, though I don't really understand why. If they get a solid 1st, sure, but if it's just, say, Dadiet, I'm not sure what's the point. The Deni deal was earlier in the rebuild, so there would have been more "wasted" years. JC is only 24, and he seems like the kind of solid rotation player they'll be signing in a year or two.

Also, if they're hoping to trade him, wouldn't they want to be showcasing him a little?

[GoneShammGone]

I think Justin is flying under the radar in this league. A trade doesn't make sense because without playing time to show out, other teams will not be that interested. What I HOPE is going on is that Keefe is keeping Justin warm at the end of the bench for the first half, and will start to play him regular minutes when CJ and Khris inevitably get traded or injured. I also suspect that Cam will be dealt near the trade deadline for whatever they can get for him. His style and mentality just don't seem to fit with this squad. Once those deals happen, I think the plan is for JC to soak up the available minutes. That's my most optimistic take.

[payitforward]

From the Bilal thread:

I don't understand what's going on with Champagnie. Middleton playing 30 mpg, and even Riley for 4, but no time for JC? Seems He could even take Vukcivic's minutes.

Keefe played Champagnie enough last year that it seems unlikely he doesn't see how good the kid is.

If he were on another team now, & I had the chance to trade for him, I would have no problem giving a mid-late R1 pick for Justin Champagnie.

I think the Wizards will indeed trade Champagnie. It's a little like the Deni Avdija situation in that he signed to an incredibly cheap contract but we are the last team in the league that can really benefit from such a cheap deal. We should try and trade him to a veteran team who will value both his on-the-court contributions and his negligible cap footprint.

Who knows? But, I don't think the common sense logic here is particularly compelling. After all, having such a solid player on a cheap, long-term deal makes it possible to accelerate the rebuild further next off season by signing a really good FA.

Just as I would have no problem giving a mid-late R1 pick for JC, so too I would feel no particular motivation to accept such a pick for him. It's uncommon to get a guy at that point in the draft who puts up numbers like JC has put up.

Never a good idea to outsmart yourself. If you get lucky, accept the good luck. This kid is, pure & simple, a terrific NBA player.

Think of it this way: if I go back over the drafts from 2013 through 2022, how many times has the guy taken at, say, 18, 19 or 20 been better in his career than Champagnie was last year.

‘13: Larkin, Karasev, Snell
‘14: Ennis, Gary Harris, Caboclo
‘15: Dekker, Grant, Delon Wright
‘16: Ellenson, Beasley, Caris Levert
‘17: Leaf, John Collins, Giles
‘18: Walker, Huerter, Okogie
‘19: Gogo Bitadze, Samanic, Thybulle
‘20: Josh Green, Bey, Achiuwa
‘21: Tre Mann, Jones, Jalen Johnson
‘22: Terry, LaRavia, Branham

I've bolded the 6 guys who've turned out best out of those 30. Few of the 6 actually added value to the team that drafted them. I wouldn't trade JC for many of the 6.

[payitforward]

I think Justin is flying under the radar in this league. A trade doesn't make sense because without playing time to show out, other teams will not be that interested. What I HOPE is going on is that Keefe is keeping Justin warm at the end of the bench for the first half, and will start to play him regular minutes when CJ and Khris inevitably get traded or injured. I also suspect that Cam will be dealt near the trade deadline for whatever they can get for him. His style and mentality just don't seem to fit with this squad. Once those deals happen, I think the plan is for JC to soak up the available minutes. That's my most optimistic take.

I'm sure there are plenty of FO people around the league, professionals, who've had a close look at JC's numbers from last year & have his name on their list of guys they'd be interested in acquiring -- especially at his salary!

You may still be right that it's CJ & Middleton who are soaking up most of the minutes that would otherwise go to him. Cam even more so.

OTOH, it's only been 2 games! Not sure there's a pattern to analyze, not yet.

Ditto as to your remark about Cam -- too early to draw conclusions. At the same time, I do understand what you mean....

[payitforward]

It is utterly incomprehensible to me that Champagnie isn't playing -- he should get 20-25 minutes a game just on the strength of his productivity last year.

The coaching staff knows what he can do. They watched him last year.

The only thing I can imagine is that they just don't want anybody on the floor who might cause them to win games. & that's a stretch itself.

The idea that we should trade him doesn't make much sense to me either. If we were going to do that, why wouldn't we have done it in the offseason when, I imagine, his value was highest?

Plus, if they wanted to trade him... it would make sense to play him *a lot.* He's very very good -- he's demonstrated the fact. Why wouldn't you let him show his value if you're looking to move him?

[9 and 20]

I'd like to see Keefe start Kyshawn at PG and either Champagnie or Jamir Watkins at SG. Champagnie or Watkins would guard the opposing team's point guard. Bub is giving us nothing and CJ not much more. Might as well go with defense in the backcourt and let Kyshawn be the primary ball handler. Champagnie can shoot a little bit but Watkins might have upside as a defender. Either of those guys would help on the boards too, which has become the area where we lose most ever night, it seems like.

Forwards can be Bilal and Cam or Bilal and Kispert, just to build his trade value.

[joshuacf]

It is utterly incomprehensible to me that Champagnie isn't playing -- he should get 20-25 minutes a game just on the strength of his productivity last year.

Why would the coaching staff play someone who is shooting 40% from 2 and 20% from 3 for 20-25 minutes a game?

[DCZards]

It is utterly incomprehensible to me that Champagnie isn't playing -- he should get 20-25 minutes a game just on the strength of his productivity last year.

Why would the coaching staff play someone who is shooting 40% from 2 and 20% from 3 for 20-25 minutes a game?

Because basketball is more than shooting and scoring. JC makes winning plays on both ends of the court that don’t show up in the scoring column. That includes rebounding. He’s averaging over 11 boards per 36.

[payitforward]

It is utterly incomprehensible to me that Champagnie isn't playing -- he should get 20-25 minutes a game just on the strength of his productivity last year.

Why would the coaching staff play someone who is shooting 40% from 2 and 20% from 3 for 20-25 minutes a game?

Come on Josh, you can do better than that! You don't judge from 110 minutes!

Take a look at his numbers over 1340 minutes last year. Justin shot the 3 at .383 & the 2 at .624. How do those numbers look to you?

He also grabbed those 11 boards per 40 minutes that Zards mentioned, & he's a good defender as well.

On the numbers last year, Justin Champagnie was one of the best small Forwards in the league. No doubt about it. Play him 20 minutes a game & his numbers will trend back to last year's efficiency.

[joshuacf]

Come on Josh, you can do better than that! You don't judge from 110 minutes!

Take a look at his numbers over 1340 minutes last year. Justin shot the 3 at .383 & the 2 at .624. How do those numbers look to you?

He also grabbed those 11 boards per 40 minutes that Zards mentioned, & he's a good defender as well.

On the numbers last year, Justin Champagnie was one of the best small Forwards in the league. No doubt about it. Play him 20 minutes a game & his numbers will trend back to last year's efficiency.[/quote]
Those prior year numbers were some good numbers, no doubt. And if he starts trending back in that direction, he will deserve, and probably get, the 20 mpg that you want him to get. And even if his shooting numbers don't go up, he still likely gets more run once Khris and CJ are gone.

But right now? No thanks. Would rather give those minutes to Whitmore.

[payitforward]

Come on Josh, you can do better than that! You don't judge from 110 minutes!

Take a look at his numbers over 1340 minutes last year. Justin shot the 3 at .383 & the 2 at .624. How do those numbers look to you?

He also grabbed those 11 boards per 40 minutes that Zards mentioned, & he's a good defender as well.

On the numbers last year, Justin Champagnie was one of the best small Forwards in the league. No doubt about it. Play him 20 minutes a game & his numbers will trend back to last year's efficiency.

Those prior year numbers were some good numbers, no doubt. And if he starts trending back in that direction, he will deserve, and probably get, the 20 mpg that you want him to get. And even if his shooting numbers don't go up, he still likely gets more run once Khris and CJ are gone.

But right now? No thanks. Would rather give those minutes to Whitmore.

Can't see why.
You don't reward players bassed on their pedigrees; you reward them based on their performance.

So far this season, Cam has been worse than he was last year. Last year, Cam was worse than he was as a rookie.

Moreover, he's been worse than Justin overall! That's right -- so far this season, Justin Champagnie has been better overall than Cam Whitmore. Let me explain what I mean:

in 36 minutes, Justin takes 9.4 shots -- & misses 6.1 of them: yikes! His made shots yield 7.3 points at the cost of 6.1 other lost opportunities to score!
Here's the thing, tho -- in that same 36 minutes Justin grabs 5.4 offensive rebounds -- Hence, the net cost of those points from shots is really only .7 lost opportunities to score. Whew! That's better....

Now, Cam takes 16.2 shots per 36 minutes -- & misses 8.5 of them. His made shots yield 17.2 points at the cost of 7.7 other lost opportunities to score!
Now, in that same 36 minutes Cam gets only 1.4 offensive rebounds -- Hence, the cost of those points from shots is really 7.1 lost opportunities to score.
.
IOW, Cam's shots provide 9.9 more points than Justin's, but they do it at a cost of 6.4 more opportunities to score. Now 6.4 minus .7 is 5.7, & at the league average efg%, 5.7 attempts produces a lot more than 9.9 points!

Thus Cam's scoring from FGAs is actually less helpful because less efficient than Justin's.

But, that leaves out Free Throws, doesn't it? Justin takes 5.4 FTAs per 36 minutes. Cam takes 3.1. But, out of those 2.3 extra FTAs, Justin produces 2.1 more points than Cam b/c his FT% is higher. Once again, Justin's work is superior to Cam's.

In short, the extra cost of Cam's delta over Justin in points scored per 36 minutes is extremely high. His extra points in 36 minutes help us lose not win.

Then there are the 4 times as many turnovers Cam commits as compared to Justin! But... I think we've gone far enough. I'm not "anti-Cam," & I'm not related to Justin Champagnie either! I'm just using normal analytical tools to show the difference in how well two players are producing.

I'm a fan of Cam Whitmore, btw. I want him to succeed. But, right now he just isn't anywhere near as good an NBA player as Justin Champagnie is. OTOH, Justin is a couple of years older than Cam. There's no particular reason to compare them except that you expressed yourself as wanting Cam to play over Justin, because you thought he was better. He isn't.

[Silvie Lysandra]

From the Bilal thread:

Keefe played Champagnie enough last year that it seems unlikely he doesn't see how good the kid is.

If he were on another team now, & I had the chance to trade for him, I would have no problem giving a mid-late R1 pick for Justin Champagnie.

I think the Wizards will indeed trade Champagnie. It's a little like the Deni Avdija situation in that he signed to an incredibly cheap contract but we are the last team in the league that can really benefit from such a cheap deal. We should try and trade him to a veteran team who will value both his on-the-court contributions and his negligible cap footprint.

Who knows? But, I don't think the common sense logic here is particularly compelling. After all, having such a solid player on a cheap, long-term deal makes it possible to accelerate the rebuild further next off season by signing a really good FA.

If the NBA was like the NFL, where there are good, even All-Star caliber players that hit FA every year, and said players would be open to accepting a deal to go to a weaker, less competitive team, then this would be compelling. But it's not - good players rarely hit FA, when they do, they're often overpaid, and in many cases, they're more likely to go to already good teams. Raw cap space just has diminished returns for poor teams unless they can use it to absorb bad contracts and take on assets, and even that is becoming less viable.

Value contracts are only assets if you can use the money saved to pay other good players market value where you otherwise would not have been able to. If you're not a FA destination, that becomes much harder.

[dobrojim]

Tre is out vs Bulls. Maybe JC or Riley will soak up those
minutes.

[dckingsfan]

CJ McCollum; Khris Middleton; Cam Whitmore; Justin Champagnie are all having bad seasons compared to previous seasons. Marvin Bagley is the one exception.

I think this says a bit less about any of the players than about the current system(s) and makeup of the team.

[payitforward]

CJ McCollum; Khris Middleton; Cam Whitmore; Justin Champagnie are all having bad seasons compared to previous seasons. Marvin Bagley is the one exception.

I think this says a bit less about any of the players than about the current system(s) and makeup of the team.

How about the fact that Alex Sarr is having a really great year? How about the fact that Kyshawn is having a great year as well? You giving Keefe any credit?

Oh, and Malaki Branham has played the best 39 minutes of his career this season. You giving Keefe props for that?

Justin hasn't had enough minutes to make any judgment about him. Anyway, he thrived under Keefe last year. He's also not playing nearly as bad as the "points-per-game" observer might imagine.

As for Cam, he's down a little off last year. Then again, last year he was down a little off his rookie year. Seems a bit much to blame on Keefe, don't you think?

CJ is playing more or less the way he did last year, except his 2-pt % is slightly down. Meh -- he's an end of career player; it's what you'd expect. Maybe better than you'd expect...

Say the same about Middleton: 1 more year of wear on a guy in his 15th season.

As to the "makeup of the team," think about it this way: after this many games last season we had 2 wins; this year we've only got 1.

That means that either we're only half as good as last year or we're only 1 game off last year's pace. You get to make up your own mind on the subject!

[dckingsfan]

CJ McCollum; Khris Middleton; Cam Whitmore; Justin Champagnie are all having bad seasons compared to previous seasons. Marvin Bagley is the one exception.

I think this says a bit less about any of the players than about the current system(s) and makeup of the team.

How about the fact that Alex Sarr is having a really great year? How about the fact that Kyshawn is having a great year as well? You giving Keefe any credit?

Oh, and Malaki Branham has played the best 39 minutes of his career this season. You giving Keefe props for that?

Justin hasn't had enough minutes to make any judgment about him. Anyway, he thrived under Keefe last year. He's also not playing nearly as bad as the "points-per-game" observer might imagine.

As for Cam, he's down a little off last year. Then again, last year he was down a little off his rookie year. Seems a bit much to blame on Keefe, don't you think?

CJ is playing more or less the way he did last year, except his 2-pt % is slightly down. Meh -- he's an end of career player; it's what you'd expect. Maybe better than you'd expect...

Say the same about Middleton: 1 more year of wear on a guy in his 15th season.

As to the "makeup of the team," think about it this way: after this many games last season we had 2 wins; this year we've only got 1.

That means that either we're only half as good as last year or we're only 1 game off last year's pace. You get to make up your own mind on the subject!

Rookies coming off the same team vs. players coming off of different teams. Nothing more to see on my "analysis" - it is correlative not causative.

[payitforward]

I still say let's start Malaki Branham! What the h#ll... He might get us that 2d win!

[penbeast0]

If the NBA was like the NFL, where there are good, even All-Star caliber players that hit FA every year, and said players would be open to accepting a deal to go to a weaker, less competitive team, then this would be compelling. But it's not - good players rarely hit FA, when they do, they're often overpaid, and in many cases, they're more likely to go to already good teams. Raw cap space just has diminished returns for poor teams unless they can use it to absorb bad contracts and take on assets, and even that is becoming less viable.

Value contracts are only assets if you can use the money saved to pay other good players market value where you otherwise would not have been able to. If you're not a FA destination, that becomes much harder.

Agree about free agency to some degree, disagree about value contract. They are mainly valuable as trade bait; teams that want to compete and need good players to fit their contract structure will give up draft value for them.

[payitforward]

Just waking up this thread to mention what a terrific outing Justin had vs the Hornets last night: in 19 minutes, he scored 10 points on 7 shots while grabbing 9 rebounds.