oldncreaky wrote:Re: Toronto Raptors
The starters are all playing well, and starting to gel. Ingram is reminding people why he made an all-star team, and has been playing far harder on D than I expected or hoped. Scottie Barnes isn't battling hand injuries or trying to be a scorer he's not, but is playing brilliant all-court D and does everything other than score. Poeltl's game fits perfectly for the style of play in vogue because he's very mobile on both ends and rarely makes a mistake. IQ and RJ are doing well too.
But IMO the story of the Raptors so far is the bench, particularly Jamal Shead. (Toronto has a bunch of young wings, but it is the diminutive Shead that leads the bench). Shead watches the first 6 minutes of the game, and then comes in and provides whatever the team needs: POA defence, feeding the hot hand, penetration, creating open 3's, increasing/decreasing the pace, taking a charge, whatever. Classic backup PG stuff, but he's been consistent, and most important in my eyes is the 5.4 assists on only 1.2 turnovers. I'm only half joking when I say that if Shead gets a chance to start, he might not ever lose the spot.
OTOH, the team is ridiculously easy to beat for a good team with the personnel and a half-decent coaching staff. Do you have 3+ rotation big men, and can you keep 2 of them on the floor at all times? If "Yes", then bully the Raptors and dominate the boards. That's it; that's all it takes -- because aside from Poeltl and Barnes the team is too small.
Looking at the EC, Toronto matches up well with most teams, but DET, MIL, NYK and ORL look like bad match-ups who will bully them, and I'd also expect Spoelstra in Miami to win against the Raptors in a playoff series. So all in all, I've upped my estimate of the Raptors from a mediocre roughly .500 team to a team that might top 50 wins in the RS, but still tops out at a 2nd round exit in the playoffs. Can they address this by going into the tax to get a legit backup big? Yes. Will they address this glaring weakness? Doubt it --because the ownership has been cheap.
This is a great assessment.
The problem with Toronto is that their starting line-up isn't that good. They are +4.1 in ~170 minutes, and without Poeltl, they are -0.9 in about 270 minutes. That is a team that is likely to be destined for a 1st-round exit.
The player they should look to move off of is R.J. Barrett, and using Agbaji as expiring salary ballast can get them a player making upwards of 33 Million to still duck the tax.
Barrett + Agbaji for Vucevic + Okoro could be interesting. Jalen Smith is another target they could consider adding. Perhaps simplifying a deal and doing Agbaji + 2nd(s) for Smith makes some sense as a floor-spacing bench 5.
If Memphis has a fire sale, Santi Aldami is intriguing, as he is on a declining contract starting around 18 million.
Gafford is another interesting bench big who protects the rim, rebounds and pressures the rim in the pick and roll, but a trade with a team so far in the tax isn't tenable as a 2-team deal with Toronto.
Toronto has been a pleasant surprise thus far, but the starting lineup not being the catalyst for their success raises major concerns about how good the team can become by April.
