Who do you think wins MVP this season? (2025-26 NBA MVP Discussion Thread)

[f4p]

I think Jokic and Luka would love it if they had SGA’s supporting cast lol

Oh the old "supporting cast" argument. You use it because you have nothing else. I'm impartial because I'm not a fan of either team, so I just say what I see. I think it's time to get new material champ.

I’m bringing up supporting casts because OP said that SGA and the Thunder were a one man show which I thought was inaccurate

the thunder currently have a -11.8 defense, which would be easily the best defense of all time. unless people think shai is bill russell on defense, he clearly is a) amazing and b) has a ton of help. it's like when people would point out the warriors not having a ton of offensive help around steph while ignoring their #1 defense as if that didn't influence the final score.

[MavsDirk41]

Its currently a 3 man race
1 SGA
2 Jokic
3 Luka

[mademan]

Its currently a 3 man race
1 SGA
2 Jokic
3 Luka

Let's be honest here, its a 2 man race. And it's actually more a, "Can Jokic win enough games to win the MVP" race, which sounds disrespectful to Shai but it really isnt.

[MoneyTalks41890]

Its currently a 3 man race
1 SGA
2 Jokic
3 Luka

Let's be honest here, its a 2 man race. And it's actually more a, "Can Jokic win enough games to win the MVP" race, which sounds disrespectful to Shai but it really isnt.

The third man here would be Giannis, and it looks like record and injuries are going to make that irrelevant.

EPM has SGA at 10.7, Jokic at 10.5, Giannis at 8.5, and Luka is hanging with Donovan Mitchell and Curry at 6.4.

Luka is further away on EPM from Shai and Jokic than guys like OG, Quickley, and LaMelo are from Luka.

[CobraCommander]

Its currently a 3 man race
1 SGA
2 Jokic
3 Luka

Let's be honest here, its a 2 man race. And it's actually more a, "Can Jokic win enough games to win the MVP" race, which sounds disrespectful to Shai but it really isnt.

The third man here would be Giannis, and it looks like record and injuries are going to make that irrelevant.

EPM has SGA at 10.7, Jokic at 10.5, Giannis at 8.5, and Luka is hanging with Donovan Mitchell and Curry at 6.4.

Luka is further away on EPM from Shai and Jokic than guys like OG, Quickley, and LaMelo are from Luka.

its simply Jokic IF he wins enough games...SGA only wins if OKC wins a record number of games or is 10+ games ahead of Denver....

if OKC gets to 74 wins...SGA wins period...

or if OKC gets to 70 and Denver gets to 55 ...SGA wins...most likely but it's not absolute.

but if Denver gets to 61 and OKC is at 70....Jokic wins most likely.

[hagredionis]

Is anybody else tired of this obsession with advanced stats?

[HotRocks34]

Latest xRAPM. SGA catching up to Jokic, Luka in third.

Gordon is having a big year. It's going to be tough for Denver without him.

[Archx]

Well according to EPM, Luka is shooting insane 83% around the rim, even 7% higher than Jokic, but only 31% from 3 so far. If he wants to have any chance, he'll have to increase that 3pt% plus overall efficiency and Lakers need to have enough wins i guess.

Just interesting his defensive EPM is -0.1. He's probably having one of the best defensive years so far, and there is no way Reaves is good enough to be at +0.3 literally to anyone who is watching Laker games.

[hagredionis]

Latest xRAPM. SGA catching up to Jokic, Luka in third.

Gordon is having a big year. It's going to be tough for Denver without him.

Interesting. Gordon 7th and the Jokic Stans were telling as for years how he doesn't have enough help.

[bbms]

Latest xRAPM. SGA catching up to Jokic, Luka in third.

Gordon is having a big year. It's going to be tough for Denver without him.

check "xrapm flavors -> 1-year xrapm" that would be xrapm only for 25/26. the results are quite different

[HotRocks34]

This is the latest RAPTOR which is now apparently called LAKER. Link below. This is not sorted by Total but you can see some of the leaders in that. Jokic 1 and SGA 2. Luka lower but he's positive in defense (good).

As someone said above, Luka apparently isn't hitting his threes so far. His metrics will improve if those start to drop.



Link:

https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/2025-26-nba-elo-forecast-and-player#%C2%A7nba-laker-leaderboard

[lethalizer]

Luka 34.6 ppg / 8.8 rpg / 8.9 apg / 2.0 spg

SGA 32.2 ppg / 4.9 rpg / 6.6 apg / 1.5 spg

Their efficiency currently is so far apart, only talking about ppg wildly undersells how better of a scorer Shai has been currently.

Here you go:

Now let’s do all three to get an even better idea

https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/XMRkd

I mean we all know Jokic is the efficiency king around here.

I specifically posted the Luka vs Shai stats cause the user above me compared the two of them.

That being said, Shai doing this from the guard position should still be applauded a lot. I know Jokic makes some tough shots but he's still primarily a Center that likes to operate in the paint after all.

[HotRocks34]

More detail on RAPTOR/LAKER

[1993Playoffs]

Let's be honest here, its a 2 man race. And it's actually more a, "Can Jokic win enough games to win the MVP" race, which sounds disrespectful to Shai but it really isnt.

The third man here would be Giannis, and it looks like record and injuries are going to make that irrelevant.

EPM has SGA at 10.7, Jokic at 10.5, Giannis at 8.5, and Luka is hanging with Donovan Mitchell and Curry at 6.4.

Luka is further away on EPM from Shai and Jokic than guys like OG, Quickley, and LaMelo are from Luka.

its simply Jokic IF he wins enough games...SGA only wins if OKC wins a record number of games or is 10+ games ahead of Denver....

if OKC gets to 74 wins...SGA wins period...

or if OKC gets to 70 and Denver gets to 55 ...SGA wins...most likely but it's not absolute.

but if Denver gets to 61 and OKC is at 70....Jokic wins most likely.

Disagree,I think SGA wins it if they win 70 as well. He’s in the lead right now tbh.

[Cubbies2120]

Latest xRAPM. SGA catching up to Jokic, Luka in third.

Gordon is having a big year. It's going to be tough for Denver without him.

Interesting. Gordon 7th and the Jokic Stans were telling as for years how he doesn't have enough help.

Was Gordon 7th for the last 4-5 years?

[HotRocks34]

Luka is shooting 61% from two this year but only 31% from three. Get that up and his advanced stats will rise.

[lethalizer]

Let's be honest here, its a 2 man race. And it's actually more a, "Can Jokic win enough games to win the MVP" race, which sounds disrespectful to Shai but it really isnt.

The third man here would be Giannis, and it looks like record and injuries are going to make that irrelevant.

EPM has SGA at 10.7, Jokic at 10.5, Giannis at 8.5, and Luka is hanging with Donovan Mitchell and Curry at 6.4.

Luka is further away on EPM from Shai and Jokic than guys like OG, Quickley, and LaMelo are from Luka.

its simply Jokic IF he wins enough games...SGA only wins if OKC wins a record number of games or is 10+ games ahead of Denver....

if OKC gets to 74 wins...SGA wins period...

or if OKC gets to 70 and Denver gets to 55 ...SGA wins...most likely but it's not absolute.

but if Denver gets to 61 and OKC is at 70....Jokic wins most likely.

I'll be the first to say it, if Jokic carries this Denver roster to 61 wins sans Gordon and Braun for a month, just give him the MVP and be done with it lol.

Gordon is a huge, huge piece when it comes to their defense. The Rockets game masked that a bit because Jokic is a good defender when he gets to defend the post one on one instead of pick and roll actions. But any team going for the high speed pick and roll will give Denver a lot of trouble when Aaron isn't around. Jokic can go otherworldly on offense but variance will hurt Denver a lot.

We saw glimpses of it against the Kings. I know that game was a back to back but still.

[MavsDirk41]

Its currently a 3 man race
1 SGA
2 Jokic
3 Luka

Let's be honest here, its a 2 man race. And it's actually more a, "Can Jokic win enough games to win the MVP" race, which sounds disrespectful to Shai but it really isnt.

End of the year i think it’s between SGA and Jokic but currently Luka has carried the Lakers to 12 wins.

[lethalizer]

Its currently a 3 man race
1 SGA
2 Jokic
3 Luka

Let's be honest here, its a 2 man race. And it's actually more a, "Can Jokic win enough games to win the MVP" race, which sounds disrespectful to Shai but it really isnt.

End of the year i think it’s between SGA and Jokic but currently Luka has carried the Lakers to 12 wins.

Considering Luka wasn't on the court for 3 of their wins, I reckon he must be a heck of a cheerleader.

[HotRocks34]

This podcast is Allie Clifton, Channing Frye, Richard Jefferson and Kendrick Perkins.

Perk's apparent current MVP ladder (I'm not endorsing this, just relaying the information):

SGA
Jokic
Cade
Luka