ImageImageImage

2025 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread

Moderators: KingDavid, BFRESH44, MettaWorldPanda, Wiltside, heat4life, QUIZ, IggieCC

heater4life
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,715
And1: 3,137
Joined: Sep 14, 2010
Location: The Dons Palace
 

Re: 2025 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 

Post#1341 » by heater4life » Mon Dec 1, 2025 2:44 pm

Shewasfly wrote:
heater4life wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
Image

you're starting to embarrass yourself


How am I embarrassing myself when I’m promoting starting lineups that don’t have Herro in them?!?!?


I mean, beyond what others have already called out, you are doing so by virtue of arguing to not field our best 5 players in the starting lineup. And you're doing so for the purposes of keeping a career bench player (Davion, who you keep not mentioning) in the SL. That is embarrassing in and of itself.


So whats your official stance?

Herro starting PG
Start Ware
Davion off bench

Herro-Powell-Wiggins-Bam-Ware?

Size being the biggest issue with the starting unit?
twix2500
RealGM
Posts: 28,032
And1: 28,408
Joined: Dec 25, 2003
   

Re: 2025 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 

Post#1342 » by twix2500 » Mon Dec 1, 2025 3:14 pm

Units that's been very successful this season that should remain in the rotation

Mitchell - Powell - Larsson - Wiggins- Bam = +34.4 NetRtg

Mitchell - Jaquez - Larsson - Wiggins - Bam = +34.0 NetRtg

Mitchell - Powell - Jaquez - Larsson - Ware = +17.6 NetRtg

Smith - Jaquez - Fontecchio - Jovic - Bam = +57.0 NetRtg

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
User avatar
Shewasfly
General Manager
Posts: 8,572
And1: 14,597
Joined: Aug 05, 2014
   

Re: 2025 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 

Post#1343 » by Shewasfly » Mon Dec 1, 2025 3:58 pm

heater4life wrote:
Shewasfly wrote:
heater4life wrote:
How am I embarrassing myself when I’m promoting starting lineups that don’t have Herro in them?!?!?


I mean, beyond what others have already called out, you are doing so by virtue of arguing to not field our best 5 players in the starting lineup. And you're doing so for the purposes of keeping a career bench player (Davion, who you keep not mentioning) in the SL. That is embarrassing in and of itself.


So whats your official stance?

Herro starting PG
Start Ware
Davion off bench

Herro-Powell-Wiggins-Bam-Ware?

Size being the biggest issue with the starting unit?


Yes that's exactly it. Davion to the bench also might facilitate our second unit a bit better, and let JJJ be off the ball more frequently when he's having one of those games where he can't get to the rim as easily off the dribble.

Its true that this would mean that Davion and Dru Smith's minutes would be reduce but...I don't honestly see that as a big deal. Like at all. I'd much rather our best 5 start getting as many reps together as possible and figure out how they're going to make it work.
Image
Saudades.
greg4012
General Manager
Posts: 8,245
And1: 12,804
Joined: Jul 14, 2008

Re: 2025 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 

Post#1344 » by greg4012 » Mon Dec 1, 2025 4:02 pm

twix2500 wrote:Units that's been very successful this season that should remain in the rotation

Mitchell - Powell - Larsson - Wiggins- Bam = +34.4 NetRtg

Mitchell - Jaquez - Larsson - Wiggins - Bam = +34.0 NetRtg

Mitchell - Powell - Jaquez - Larsson - Ware = +17.6 NetRtg

Smith - Jaquez - Fontecchio - Jovic - Bam = +57.0 NetRtg

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk


Low minutes of course (only one with over 40 minutes played on the season is the first 1 at 48 minutes), but I do like the balance of each of those lineups in terms of skillsets offered on the floor. Importantly, all feature strong forward/wing presence.
greg4012
General Manager
Posts: 8,245
And1: 12,804
Joined: Jul 14, 2008

Re: 2025 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 

Post#1345 » by greg4012 » Mon Dec 1, 2025 4:04 pm

To be clear, I really don't care if Herro starts or if Powell starts or if both start. I know that this team needs to make it work with both on the court to get to their best form and believe that there are ways to do so and potentially see Miami playing even better basketball than they did in the first 17 games of the season (before Herro's return).

I strongly believe that the best way to maximize Herro and Powell pairing is to have them play all 48 minutes of the SG position that there are in the game and all spillover minutes go into the PG position. Assuming Herro and Powell are averaging 60 mpg jointly, that means 12 mpg with Herro at PG and Powell at SG. Miami is blessed with the personnel to complement this unit well and I'd bet, with some integration, that this unit can play excellent ball.

The beauty of it is it still allows for 36 minutes per game with one of Davion or Dru at PG flanking one of Herro or Powell at their natural scoring position. And it allows all the forward minutes (96) to be split among Wiggins, Bam, Jaquez, Pelle, Fontecchio, Jovic and all Center minutes (48) to be split between Ware and Bam.

Herro has played in 3 games so far this season. In that span, Miami had an ORTG of 110.5 (21st in NBA), a DRTG of 109.6 (8th in NBA), and a net rating of +0.9 (11th).

Miami has played in 17 games so far this season before Herro's return. In that span, Miami had an ORTG of 116.6 (13th in NBA), a DRTG of 111.2 (4th in NBA), and a net rating of +5.5 (7th).

It's easy to say, oh Herro sucks and he makes the team worse. But, it's not accurate. He's a good player with limitations. There is very apparent upside to untap. Ideally, Miami can continue with their strong top 10 defense while raising the ceiling of the offense. Please note that Miami has NOT been a top 10 offense this season (in ORTG) for any portion of the season. It's still early in the season and there's A LOT of meat left on the bone. Let's change that.

I do expect the human element to come into play with Herro and Powell both remaining starters. Fortunately, I strongly believe that there are clear basketball solutions to not only make it work, but help it maximize Miami's basketball. And those solutions include still getting the most out of Davion Mitchell and his contributions to the team.
greg4012
General Manager
Posts: 8,245
And1: 12,804
Joined: Jul 14, 2008

Re: 2025 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 

Post#1346 » by greg4012 » Mon Dec 1, 2025 4:43 pm

Did some more homework to organize some thoughts and stress-test them based on some of what last season revealed re the Herro at "de-facto PG" experiment. Mostly, the question being "can it work?" I like to put my research/analysis down in writing so I can refer back to it if I'd like later. Feel free to ignore.

Herro played ~40% of his minutes at de-facto PG last season. This is roughly categorized as minutes where neither Terry nor Davion were on the floor with him, so he was running alongside one of Duncan, Burks, Jaime or rookie Pelle for the most part.

Tyler actually had a higher Net Rating per minute in his PG minutes than in his SG minutes (Net rating of +2.8 per 48 at PG and +0.9 per 48 at SG). Miami's net rating as a team last season was +0.4.

Tyler produced 31.2 points per 48 and 8.7 assists per 48 in his PG minutes. He produced 33.4 pp48 and 5.8 ap48 in his SG minutes. His turnovers remained the same and his EFG percentage was slightly higher at PG.

But, let's talk about the defensive and overall impact, bc I'm rooting for team success and not Tyler's stats.

I wanted to focus on the season from February 7th onward, because that's when the Jimmy trade happened and Terry didn't start anymore games at that point and was gradually getting phased out of the rotation with Davion gaining minutes.

From February 7th onward, Tyler was the starting PG for 16 of the 33 games. During those 16 games, Miami had an ORTG of 114.9 and a DRTG of 109.7. That's commensurate with the 12th ranked ORTG for last season and the 3rd ranked DRTG for last season. Miami's net rating of +5.2 during these games was commensurate with the 4th best net rating from last season.

During these 16 games where Tyler started at PG, his personal ORTG was 116.3 and his DRTG was 106.4 (net rating of +9.9). That ORTG would have been commensurate with the 7th ranked offense in the NBA last season and that DRTG would have been even better than OKC's league leading 106.6 DRTG from last season. The net rating of +9.9 would have been 2nd best in NBA.


For more overall context, on the season last year Miami had an ORTG of 112.4 (21st), a DRTG of 112.0 (9th) and a net rating of +0.4 (16th). When accounting for ALL games post-Jimmy trade, Miami had an ORTG of 113.1 (20th in that span), a DRTG of 112.0 (11th in that span), and a net rating of +1.1 (16th in that span).

Now, please note that I know comparing ORTG, DRTG and Net Ratings from smaller samples to season-league samples is not a conclusive exercise, I'm just grounding in context to find notable trends to learn more about. I'm not trying to claim Tyler at PG makes Miami the best defense in the NBA lol.

I'm just looking under the hood to see how we can make things work if Tyler is back in a part-time role at de-facto PG with the right personnel around him, while the vast majority of the PG minutes are helmed by Mitchell and Smith.

It's hard to argue that Tyler as the smallest player on the floor plus 3-4 real defenders and no weak defenders doesn't work defensively based on these findings.
VaDe255
Bench Warmer
Posts: 1,293
And1: 1,509
Joined: Jun 14, 2023
 

Re: 2025 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 

Post#1347 » by VaDe255 » Mon Dec 1, 2025 5:30 pm

greg4012 wrote:Did some more homework to organize some thoughts and stress-test them based on some of what last season revealed re the Herro at "de-facto PG" experiment. Mostly, the question being "can it work?" I like to put my research/analysis down in writing so I can refer back to it if I'd like later. Feel free to ignore.

Herro played ~40% of his minutes at de-facto PG last season. This is roughly categorized as minutes where neither Terry nor Davion were on the floor with him, so he was running alongside one of Duncan, Burks, Jaime or rookie Pelle for the most part.

Tyler actually had a higher Net Rating per minute in his PG minutes than in his SG minutes (Net rating of +2.8 per 48 at PG and +0.9 per 48 at SG). Miami's net rating as a team last season was +0.4.

Tyler produced 31.2 points per 48 and 8.7 assists per 48 in his PG minutes. He produced 33.4 pp48 and 5.8 ap48 in his SG minutes. His turnovers remained the same and his EFG percentage was slightly higher at PG.

But, let's talk about the defensive and overall impact, bc I'm rooting for team success and not Tyler's stats.

I wanted to focus on the season from February 7th onward, because that's when the Jimmy trade happened and Terry didn't start anymore games at that point and was gradually getting phased out of the rotation with Davion gaining minutes.

From February 7th onward, Tyler was the starting PG for 15 of the 33 games. During those 15 games, Miami had an ORTG of 114.9 and a DRTG of 109.2. That's commensurate with the 12th ranked ORTG for last season and the 3rd ranked DRTG for last season. Miami's net rating of +5.7 during these games was commensurate with the 4th best net rating from last season.

During these 15 games where Tyler started at PG, his personal ORTG was 116.3 and his DRTG was 106.4 (net rating of +9.9). That ORTG would have been commensurate with the 7th ranked offense in the NBA last season and that DRTG would have been even better than OKC's league leading 106.6 DRTG from last season. The net rating of +9.9 would have been 2nd best in NBA.


For more overall context, on the season last year Miami had an ORTG of 112.4 (21st), a DRTG of 112.0 (9th) and a net rating of +0.4 (16th). When accounting for ALL games post-Jimmy trade, Miami had an ORTG of 113.1 (20th in that span), a DRTG of 112.0 (11th in that span), and a net rating of +1.1 (16th in that span).

Now, please note that I know comparing ORTG, DRTG and Net Ratings from smaller samples to season-league samples is not a conclusive exercise, I'm just grounding in context to find notable trends to learn more about. I'm not trying to claim Tyler at PG makes Miami the best defense in the NBA lol.

I'm just looking under the hood to see how we can make things work if Tyler is back in a part-time role at de-facto PG with the right personnel around him, while the vast majority of the PG minutes are helmed by Mitchell and Smith.

It's hard to argue that Tyler as the smallest player on the floor plus 3-4 real defenders and no weak defenders doesn't work defensively based on these findings.


I get the PG argument, but the sample size is just too small for me. It also matters who they played during that time. Unless you look at a much bigger sample size where it averages out, it's hard to judge. Even if it looks fine now, he'll see all the elite guards: Maxey, Cade, Brunson, Donovan in the playoffs and he'll get absolutely owned. So, even if his regular season might look fine, it's going to be a lot different in the playoffs.

It's not about the position itself, but rather who is with him on the floor, they need to find the right defensive scheme.

I just can't imagine Davion/Herro/Norm/Wiggins/Bam is going to work, when all of them are undersized, it's just playing defense on hard mode.

Herro/Norm/Wiggins/Bam/Ware is where I'd look. It looks like the lineup with the most potential. Even if you have weaker on ball defense, you have way more defensive playmaking potential with Wiggins/Bam roaming and Ware defending the rim.

I get why Spo loves Davion (I do too) and doesn't trust Ware enough yet, but I still think in the long run it's where it should go
greg4012
General Manager
Posts: 8,245
And1: 12,804
Joined: Jul 14, 2008

Re: 2025 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 

Post#1348 » by greg4012 » Mon Dec 1, 2025 5:37 pm

VaDe255 wrote:
greg4012 wrote:Did some more homework to organize some thoughts and stress-test them based on some of what last season revealed re the Herro at "de-facto PG" experiment. Mostly, the question being "can it work?" I like to put my research/analysis down in writing so I can refer back to it if I'd like later. Feel free to ignore.

Herro played ~40% of his minutes at de-facto PG last season. This is roughly categorized as minutes where neither Terry nor Davion were on the floor with him, so he was running alongside one of Duncan, Burks, Jaime or rookie Pelle for the most part.

Tyler actually had a higher Net Rating per minute in his PG minutes than in his SG minutes (Net rating of +2.8 per 48 at PG and +0.9 per 48 at SG). Miami's net rating as a team last season was +0.4.

Tyler produced 31.2 points per 48 and 8.7 assists per 48 in his PG minutes. He produced 33.4 pp48 and 5.8 ap48 in his SG minutes. His turnovers remained the same and his EFG percentage was slightly higher at PG.

But, let's talk about the defensive and overall impact, bc I'm rooting for team success and not Tyler's stats.

I wanted to focus on the season from February 7th onward, because that's when the Jimmy trade happened and Terry didn't start anymore games at that point and was gradually getting phased out of the rotation with Davion gaining minutes.

From February 7th onward, Tyler was the starting PG for 15 of the 33 games. During those 15 games, Miami had an ORTG of 114.9 and a DRTG of 109.2. That's commensurate with the 12th ranked ORTG for last season and the 3rd ranked DRTG for last season. Miami's net rating of +5.7 during these games was commensurate with the 4th best net rating from last season.

During these 15 games where Tyler started at PG, his personal ORTG was 116.3 and his DRTG was 106.4 (net rating of +9.9). That ORTG would have been commensurate with the 7th ranked offense in the NBA last season and that DRTG would have been even better than OKC's league leading 106.6 DRTG from last season. The net rating of +9.9 would have been 2nd best in NBA.


For more overall context, on the season last year Miami had an ORTG of 112.4 (21st), a DRTG of 112.0 (9th) and a net rating of +0.4 (16th). When accounting for ALL games post-Jimmy trade, Miami had an ORTG of 113.1 (20th in that span), a DRTG of 112.0 (11th in that span), and a net rating of +1.1 (16th in that span).

Now, please note that I know comparing ORTG, DRTG and Net Ratings from smaller samples to season-league samples is not a conclusive exercise, I'm just grounding in context to find notable trends to learn more about. I'm not trying to claim Tyler at PG makes Miami the best defense in the NBA lol.

I'm just looking under the hood to see how we can make things work if Tyler is back in a part-time role at de-facto PG with the right personnel around him, while the vast majority of the PG minutes are helmed by Mitchell and Smith.

It's hard to argue that Tyler as the smallest player on the floor plus 3-4 real defenders and no weak defenders doesn't work defensively based on these findings.


I get the PG argument, but the sample size is just too small for me. It also matters who they played during that time. Unless you look at a much bigger sample size where it averages out, it's hard to judge. Even if it looks fine now, he'll see all the elite guards: Maxey, Cade, Brunson, Donovan in the playoffs and he'll get absolutely owned. So, even if his regular season might look fine, it's going to be a lot different in the playoffs.

It's not about the position itself, but rather who is with him on the floor, they need to find the right defensive scheme.

I just can't imagine Davion/Herro/Norm/Wiggins/Bam is going to work, when all of them are undersized, it's just playing defense on hard mode.

Herro/Norm/Wiggins/Bam/Ware is where I'd look. It looks like the lineup with the most potential. Even if you have weaker on ball defense, you have way more defensive playmaking potential with Wiggins/Bam roaming and Ware defending the rim.

I get why Spo loves Davion (I do too) and doesn't trust Ware enough yet, but I still think in the long run it's where it should go


For me it's all about keeping Norm out of the SF slot and having the ~12 mpg beyond the SG minutes that Herro/Powell compel eat into the PG rotation. I'm definitely not contending that Herro needs to become a full-time PG. I'm just digging into numbers that show that Herro at PG allows him to be on the floor with better defenders which nets out to better defense than even Herro at SG often does.

No matter what position Herro is at, he'll still be a target and a weakpoint on D.

I've been screaming for Herro-Powell-Wiggins-Bam-Ware as starters and potentially Herro-Powell-Wiggins-Jaquez-Bam as closers (more fluidity with options for this group depending on opponent and circumstance) since before Herro returned. It needs to be tried and given time. I believe it's worth the investment to maximize the roster rotation.

Also, the sample for Herro at PG minutes from last season overall is 40% of his total minutes--1,090 of his total 2,725 minutes. Last season, his net rating was +2.8 per 48 at PG and +0.9 per 48 at SG. Both higher than the team's season-long net rating of +0.4. The 15-game sample of him starting was just the most controlled period I could reference for projecting to this season.
User avatar
3ammy3uck3ts
RealGM
Posts: 38,975
And1: 52,895
Joined: Nov 11, 2021
 

Re: 2025 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 

Post#1349 » by 3ammy3uck3ts » Mon Dec 1, 2025 6:40 pm

We beat the Clippers last time with Bam starting at center but tonight seems like a good matchup where we can start Herro/Powell/Wiggins/Bam/Ware seeing as Ware can easily match up with a non stretch big like Zubac and that’ll push Bam onto Collins most likely now that the clippers have promoted him to the starting lineup, really wanted him matched on to Kawhi.

Defensively we’re looking at:

Harden/Powell
Dunn/Herro
Kawhi/Wiggins
Collins/Bam
Zubac/Ware

Do we just go zone as opposed to 1 of Powell/Herro being matched on to Harden until Davion or Pelle check in for one of them? Idk, as a type this out I feel like Spo is just going to run the same lineup again
#FreeBam
#Klutch
User avatar
Tim_Hardawayy
RealGM
Posts: 30,721
And1: 10,429
Joined: Sep 17, 2008

Re: 2025 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 

Post#1350 » by Tim_Hardawayy » Mon Dec 1, 2025 6:51 pm

I think you guys are sort of saying the same thing. The bottom line is this, the NBA has plenty of weak defenders. If you are weak defensively at center, you'd better bring all time great offense and rebounding or something or you won't last in this league. Every position you drop a guy defensively, makes it easier to cover their weaknesses with team defense. Consequently, the easiest position to cover a weak defender is point guard. That's why you see guys like Steve Nash and Curry have such amazing success despite not being able to guard a paper bag.

Now, what limits the position you can play a guy at in the NBA? Well basically two things, can he matchup to his position on defense, and can he perform the requirements offensively. Center has the strictest defensive requirements, but the loosest offensive ones. Point guard technically has the strictest offensive requirements... except in the modern NBA, and especially this new Heat offense, those requirements are much more decentralized.

Traditionally your point would handle the ball anywhere from 50-80% of any possession, and completely direct the play calling. In the modern NBA, I'd argue on many teams that number has dropped to 20-50% of handling, and play calling is often decided on the fly in reaction to the defense instead of running sets, especially with how the Heat have played their offense this season. A point still has a couple other requirements like being able to get the ball over halfcourt against a press and reliably hit 3's, but Tyler can do these things. At most you can argue a really hard press or double team can give him issues, but nobody is doing that for 48 minutes and you can always run a quick screen to alleviate that, not to mention a team that spends most of the time running (which has been us this year) doesn't even run into this issue much.

Ironically, the offense this season seems tailor made for Herro to be able to slot in at point guard and not have us miss a beat. But for whatever reason we're reluctant to do it, so far. Even in the game Powell missed I don't think Tyler played any point. Part of that could be to help Herro transition to this offense since he hasn't actually run it with the team yet in games.

That being said, there's less offensive pressure on a point guard in the modern NBA, and especially on this Heat team, and point has always been the position with the least defensive pressure, so it only makes sense to put your weakest defender there. I know people like to hype this "POA" defender thing, but I honestly don't think its that big a deal overall on defense. Its just more glaring when you see a point guard blow by a guy because its the first thing to happen on a possession, but if you look at the numbers as greg has illustrated, Davion isn't even really doing that great defensively as a point guard compared to our defense as a whole, he's being carried by our bigs and Wiggins.

I also think the whole POA defense is far less important in the modern NBA anyways for a couple of reasons. First, ball handling is officiated looser than ever, so EVERYONE is a threat off the dribble (just look at our team/offense, nobody expected that from us this season). Second, unless you get a rep like Caruso, officials will not let you harass a ball handler to any significant degree. Third, teams usually play with a minimum of 3 shooting threats in their lineup, meaning team defense matters more than ever because even the guys you typically don't consider a threat will burn you from 3 if left open.

All that to say, if they aren't at least trying to push Tyler at point guard, they aren't maximizing the talent on the roster. Which may ultimately not matter if they aren't going to keep him around anyways, but at the very least you ought to see what you have there. I'd argue for Tyler's long term success, he needs to be able to be slotted at the point even more than Bam needs to be a power forward, but preferably both end up playing at least half their minutes at those positions.
greg4012
General Manager
Posts: 8,245
And1: 12,804
Joined: Jul 14, 2008

Re: 2025 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 

Post#1351 » by greg4012 » Mon Dec 1, 2025 7:21 pm

greg4012 wrote:Did some more homework to organize some thoughts and stress-test them based on some of what last season revealed re the Herro at "de-facto PG" experiment. Mostly, the question being "can it work?" I like to put my research/analysis down in writing so I can refer back to it if I'd like later. Feel free to ignore.

Herro played ~40% of his minutes at de-facto PG last season. This is roughly categorized as minutes where neither Terry nor Davion were on the floor with him, so he was running alongside one of Duncan, Burks, Jaime or rookie Pelle for the most part.

Tyler actually had a higher Net Rating per minute in his PG minutes than in his SG minutes (Net rating of +2.8 per 48 at PG and +0.9 per 48 at SG). Miami's net rating as a team last season was +0.4.

Tyler produced 31.2 points per 48 and 8.7 assists per 48 in his PG minutes. He produced 33.4 pp48 and 5.8 ap48 in his SG minutes. His turnovers remained the same and his EFG percentage was slightly higher at PG.

But, let's talk about the defensive and overall impact, bc I'm rooting for team success and not Tyler's stats.

I wanted to focus on the season from February 7th onward, because that's when the Jimmy trade happened and Terry didn't start anymore games at that point and was gradually getting phased out of the rotation with Davion gaining minutes.

From February 7th onward, Tyler was the starting PG for 16 of the 33 games. During those 16 games, Miami had an ORTG of 114.9 and a DRTG of 109.7. That's commensurate with the 12th ranked ORTG for last season and the 3rd ranked DRTG for last season. Miami's net rating of +5.2 during these games was commensurate with the 4th best net rating from last season.

During these 16 games where Tyler started at PG, his personal ORTG was 116.3 and his DRTG was 106.4 (net rating of +9.9). That ORTG would have been commensurate with the 7th ranked offense in the NBA last season and that DRTG would have been even better than OKC's league leading 106.6 DRTG from last season. The net rating of +9.9 would have been 2nd best in NBA.


For more overall context, on the season last year Miami had an ORTG of 112.4 (21st), a DRTG of 112.0 (9th) and a net rating of +0.4 (16th). When accounting for ALL games post-Jimmy trade, Miami had an ORTG of 113.1 (20th in that span), a DRTG of 112.0 (11th in that span), and a net rating of +1.1 (16th in that span).

Now, please note that I know comparing ORTG, DRTG and Net Ratings from smaller samples to season-league samples is not a conclusive exercise, I'm just grounding in context to find notable trends to learn more about. I'm not trying to claim Tyler at PG makes Miami the best defense in the NBA lol.

I'm just looking under the hood to see how we can make things work if Tyler is back in a part-time role at de-facto PG with the right personnel around him, while the vast majority of the PG minutes are helmed by Mitchell and Smith.

It's hard to argue that Tyler as the smallest player on the floor plus 3-4 real defenders and no weak defenders doesn't work defensively based on these findings.


Made a couple tweaks checking my work.

Also, wanted to add this context:

I wanted to focus on the season from February 7th onward, because that's when the Jimmy trade happened and Terry didn't start anymore games at that point and was gradually getting phased out of the rotation with Davion gaining minutes.


As noted above, from February 7th onward, Tyler was the starting PG for 16 of the 33 games. During those 16 games, Miami had an ORTG of 114.9 and a DRTG of 109.7.

From February 7th onward, Tyler was the starting SG or inactive (4 games inactive) for the other 17 of the 33 games. During those 17 games, Miami had an ORTG of 111.4 and a DRTG of 114.17 (net rating of -2.7).
User avatar
Tim_Hardawayy
RealGM
Posts: 30,721
And1: 10,429
Joined: Sep 17, 2008

Re: 2025 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 

Post#1352 » by Tim_Hardawayy » Mon Dec 1, 2025 7:25 pm

Thank you for the context greg. Its clear Tyler has to be treated like Curry, and no that's not to say he's as talented as him. Rather, would you ever bother to try to play Curry at shooting guard? No, because it would hurt your team.

And ultimately, what do you need offensively from Tyler at point guard that he can't do? I'd argue nothing really. He's not going to be Jason Williams, but how many modern teams even operate with a Jason Williams type at point? We clearly don't, we run Davion Mitchell and the only thing Davion has over Tyler offensively is he's a little better against a press.

The other alternative is you have a Ben Simmons type at point (not that he doesn't have a laundry list of issues, I just mean size wise) who can effectively guard the 2/3, which negates the issues with Tyler. But Davion ain't that, he's too small. And he's not talented enough to justify force feeding him 30+ minutes (Dru Smith either).
greg4012
General Manager
Posts: 8,245
And1: 12,804
Joined: Jul 14, 2008

Re: 2025 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 

Post#1353 » by greg4012 » Mon Dec 1, 2025 7:30 pm

The PG/SG defensive splits are the most fascinating thing I discovered/learned when going thru this exercise. It makes intuitive sense bc it allows Miami to size up and be more versatile defensively at every other spot. But, still surprising.

Now we just need Norm Powell to be at least Duncan Robinson or Trey Burks level defender for these minutes. All indications are he's better than both as a SG defender in this scheme.
User avatar
DayofMourning
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 38,078
And1: 93,307
Joined: Jan 03, 2006
       

Re: 2025 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 

Post#1354 » by DayofMourning » Mon Dec 1, 2025 7:46 pm

Hardawayyyy, your level headed posting has been excellent recently. Appreciate the perspective.
User avatar
Tim_Hardawayy
RealGM
Posts: 30,721
And1: 10,429
Joined: Sep 17, 2008

Re: 2025 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 

Post#1355 » by Tim_Hardawayy » Mon Dec 1, 2025 7:53 pm

DayofMourning wrote:Hardawayyyy, your level headed posting has been excellent recently. Appreciate the perspective.

I give a lot of credit to greg and vade, they have been doing more work with the numbers than me. I just want us to maximize the roster, even if Tyler isn't the guy going forward, you want to maximize his performance so at least come February you can get the most value for him.
greg4012
General Manager
Posts: 8,245
And1: 12,804
Joined: Jul 14, 2008

Re: 2025 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 

Post#1356 » by greg4012 » Mon Dec 1, 2025 7:58 pm

All we can ask is that if the assertions that Ware needs to be starting and Herro should get part of the PG rotation minutes are wrong, then let's see it proven out on the court in a way that gives them honest chances to prove success or failure.
User avatar
DayofMourning
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 38,078
And1: 93,307
Joined: Jan 03, 2006
       

Re: 2025 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 

Post#1357 » by DayofMourning » Mon Dec 1, 2025 8:30 pm

Tim_Hardawayy wrote:
DayofMourning wrote:Hardawayyyy, your level headed posting has been excellent recently. Appreciate the perspective.

I give a lot of credit to greg and vade, they have been doing more work with the numbers than me.


Two of our best posters. I'm sure they appreciate it. They deserve a lot of credit.
User avatar
3ammy3uck3ts
RealGM
Posts: 38,975
And1: 52,895
Joined: Nov 11, 2021
 

Re: 2025 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 

Post#1358 » by 3ammy3uck3ts » Mon Dec 1, 2025 8:31 pm

Read on Twitter
#FreeBam
#Klutch
twix2500
RealGM
Posts: 28,032
And1: 28,408
Joined: Dec 25, 2003
   

Re: 2025 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 

Post#1359 » by twix2500 » Mon Dec 1, 2025 8:40 pm

3ammy3uck3ts wrote:
Read on Twitter


These boys be reading my posts... Its ok, but Iv been noticing this for a few years. :lol:
User avatar
Shewasfly
General Manager
Posts: 8,572
And1: 14,597
Joined: Aug 05, 2014
   

Re: 2025 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 

Post#1360 » by Shewasfly » Mon Dec 1, 2025 8:53 pm

greg4012 wrote:All we can ask is that if the assertions that Ware needs to be starting and Herro should get part of the PG rotation minutes are wrong, then let's see it proven out on the court in a way that gives them honest chances to prove success or failure.


Spoiler alert, but this will never happen. Agendas are going to agenda, especially as it concerns Tyler. Keep in mind that all this conversation is happening off a 3 game sample size from his return in which 2 of those games Tyler played great on both ends. He's player stans' favorite scapegoat for the limitations of their player, and he's disliked by a lot of other fans for one reason or another.
Image
Saudades.

Return to Miami Heat