Has Evan Mobley lived up to the hype?

[brackdan70]

His numbers seem to be the same, more or less, every season. He is now 24.

So has he lived up to his hype? What did people actually think he would become?

I don’t really recall the “hype” but he has been really good for 3 years now and is only 24.
Last year he was a top 20 guy, 2nd team all NBA nad DPOY. He has been all defense twice.
Pretty good resume for a 24 year old. He hasn’t really been the same every year. His scoring and assists as well as net rating have improved each year.
If last year was his peak, which it may not be he is as good as you can really hope for for any player.

[brackdan70]

The Gobert comparisons are laughable. This question is easy to answer. Offensively, he hasn't lived up to the hype if you subscribed to the KG/Duncan comps. Defensively, he's exceeded expectations quickly. He has all defensive teams and DPOY hardware at the age of 24. But I'm also a big fan of the 2021 class, so I'm biased.

To me he's still "like" KG, but a poor man's version. He moves so similarly, I always think of KG when I watch Mobley. He simply does not have that level of shooting touch (KG is one of the best midrange shooters ever), and his handles aren't quite as good (relative to the league/era).

He still fits the mold of a versatile, lanky playmaking big with DPOY-level defense. I don't think he has much in common with Duncan.

Do you guys realize neither TD nor KG never topped a TS% of 59% in their career?

Evan was never going to develop as a guy who took a high volume of mid-range face up J's in the modern NBA. That he's making 37% of his 3's for the past 3 seasons on increasing volume is one of the things that needs to continue to happen and develop. And then in the post he's improved but still greatly limited by his frame and his handle which are both still improving year to year.

The "dog" factor might even happen if Evan would consistently commit to elbowing opponents in the chest to create space and draw fouls like his peers do.

Defensively there's not much to complain about and that's where his mobility and lack of bulk really shines.

Finally. we need to be careful not to compare Mobley to TD or KG at their peak. Evan isn't there yet and he's never come close to leading the Cavs in field goal attempts. Neither did Bosh or KG once they were on teams with better players. Even TD had more seasons of less than 20ppg than he did of 20 or more.

He is not even close to KG who was a top 5 player by age 24, but he is really good.
KG lite with less dog is a fair comparison.

[TroubleS0me]

What hype did he have ?

[HMFFL]

Cavs invested a lot of money in Mobley but he doesn't have the mindset. Donovan Mitchell is being wasted there. When he won DPOY his bonus was $30 million.

I am not convinced Donovan Mitchell has shown he is capable of being a true number 1 player that can lead his team to a.chip.

You might be right but he's the only #1 option Cleveland has. Cavs need to make some moves happen.

[JonFromVA]

To me he's still "like" KG, but a poor man's version. He moves so similarly, I always think of KG when I watch Mobley. He simply does not have that level of shooting touch (KG is one of the best midrange shooters ever), and his handles aren't quite as good (relative to the league/era).

He still fits the mold of a versatile, lanky playmaking big with DPOY-level defense. I don't think he has much in common with Duncan.

Do you guys realize neither TD nor KG never topped a TS% of 59% in their career?

Evan was never going to develop as a guy who took a high volume of mid-range face up J's in the modern NBA. That he's making 37% of his 3's for the past 3 seasons on increasing volume is one of the things that needs to continue to happen and develop. And then in the post he's improved but still greatly limited by his frame and his handle which are both still improving year to year.

The "dog" factor might even happen if Evan would consistently commit to elbowing opponents in the chest to create space and draw fouls like his peers do.

Defensively there's not much to complain about and that's where his mobility and lack of bulk really shines.

Finally. we need to be careful not to compare Mobley to TD or KG at their peak. Evan isn't there yet and he's never come close to leading the Cavs in field goal attempts. Neither did Bosh or KG once they were on teams with better players. Even TD had more seasons of less than 20ppg than he did of 20 or more.

You can't use true shooting % as a flat comparison across different eras. The league average ts% over Mobley's career has been around 57-58%. The league average around KG and Duncan's young days was 51%. Mobley's relative efficiency isn't at a higher level.

We don't need to compare Mobley to KG/TD's prime, we can use their seasons at the same age. By their age 24 seasons, both those bigs were firmly in the MVP conversation.

a) Just because other players were taking worse shots doesn't excuse a player from jacking up a bunch of mid range J's - there have always been better shots available that should be explored first before resorting to a middy. Do you think we just discovered that shooting < 45 eFG% on a shot was a bad thing? KG, TD, and CB all shot below that mark numerous times during their career.

b) Players develop at different rates and as has been mentioned strength, confidence, and reps play a major part in Evan's development. There are reasons not to rule him out from taking further steps and his current +8.9 on-off +/- suggests he might not be far off from making an MVP level impact even though he's on a team with a player like Mitchell.

[JonFromVA]

Put it this way, prior to the draft if you said by the end of year 4 Mobley would have DPOY, 2 1st team all Defense and a 2nd team All NBA. And to be clear, it would most likely have been 3 1st team all defense if he played 15 more games his 3rd season. And on top of all of that, he would finish 10th in MVP voting.

I think most people would take that and run if their team had the 3rd pick in the draft. And even from just Mobley's specific hype pre draft. If you gave me all of those individual defensive awards, to go with him shooting 37% from 3 and in this year averaging 4 assists a game.

Ya I dont see how that isnt living up to the hype. Its not like Mobley was viewed as like a Wemby. There is a reason he went 3rd overall and not 1st. He was basically talked up as a truly elite level defender, with pick and pop potential and a very underrated passer for a young big guy.

I feel like the pre draft hype on Mobley was one of the more accurate hype levels for a player.

This was exactly what he was projected to be coming out of the draft. Elite defensively but a clear #2/3 option offensively, anybody who watched Mobley in college would know that he was never going to be a go to #1 offensive option but that he was going to be a gamechanger defensively. People who were thinking that he was the next Tim Duncan didn't really watch Mobley closely enough or projected skills and a killer mentality offensively that he never showed, still a hell of a player to have on your team as the perfect Robin to your Batman.

Yup. And people who think his hype was to be the next Duncan, my question would be, why did he go 3rd in the draft? If GM’s thought he was going to be the next Duncan, there would’ve been a bidding war to jump to #1 in the draft, then #2 once he didn’t go #1. The next Duncan would never drop to #3 in the draft.

I think Mobley was one of the safer and easier guys to predict. Zero red flags, his strengths and weaknesses were very easy to see. Again an elite defender from basically day 1 and on offense he showed legit flashes of being a versatile big, but not some dominant #1 option. And ya he’s a very efficient 18-19ppg scorer shooting 37% from 3 and dishing out 4 assists a game.

There are big risks with one and done big men (you don't want to waste a top-3 pick on a James Wiseman or a Jahlil Okafor) and big men have been de-emphasized such that even a Drummond or an Ayton is a pretty meh result.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Mobley was considered an elite prospect along with Cade and Green. The best center prospect since KAT. This draft class overall was highly regarded and considered great mostly because it had multiple supposed elite prospects at the top. I think Mobley hasn't reached his peak yet but he's close. I don't think he's an elite player yet (a shade below) so I don't view him as quite having lived up to his pre-draft hype. There's still a chance he will though and I don't think the Cavs would be terribly disappointed if this is all they get.

What I do find odd is last year we got a carbon copy of Mobley in Alex Sarr yet despite almost identical size/length/athleticism/skill he wasn't considered a great prospect let alone elite, like Mobley and as a result, without any supposed elite or great prospects the 2024 class was/is deemed weak.

Age 20 seasons

Mobley - 15/8/3 shooting 25% from three with 2.5 stocks per game
Sarr - 19/9/3 shooting 35% from three with nearly 3 stocks per game

I think we have an epidemic of poor talent evaluators in here

[toooskies]

Mobley was considered an elite prospect along with Cade and Green. The best center prospect since KAT. This draft class overall was highly regarded and considered great mostly because it had multiple supposed elite prospects at the top. I think Mobley hasn't reached his peak yet but he's close. I don't think he's an elite player yet (a shade below) so I don't view him as quite having lived up to his pre-draft hype. There's still a chance he will though and I don't think the Cavs would be terribly disappointed if this is all they get.

What I do find odd is last year we got a carbon copy of Mobley in Alex Sarr yet despite almost identical size/length/athleticism/skill he wasn't considered a great prospect let alone elite, like Mobley and as a result, without any supposed elite or great prospects the 2024 class was/is deemed weak.

Age 20 seasons

Mobley - 15/8/3 shooting 25% from three with 2.5 stocks per game
Sarr - 19/9/3 shooting 35% from three with nearly 3 stocks per game

I think we have an epidemic of poor talent evaluators in here

I don't know, maybe Sarr's stats might be sort of empty given that Washington is literally the worst defensive team in the league and could be one of the worst teams of all time.

Mobley elevated the 25th ranked defense to the 7th in his first year and 1st in his second year. Mobley joined a cellar-dweller and got them above .500 his first year, while Sarr's team was bad last year and may be among the worst teams of all time this year when it's all said and done.

You're also comparing Sarr's second year to Mobley's first and hiding it behind "age 20 seasons". Mobley stepped onto the court in the NBA and belonged, Sarr needed a year of effing around to figure things out enough to not be straight-out bad.

Yes, Sarr, might end up similar to or better than Mobley. He was a top pick in the draft and might've been the #1 pick if he didn't turn down a workout with Atlanta. He's made huge growth from bad on a bad team to good on a bad team. The fact his team is bad might help him develop faster, while Mobley (and the Mitchell trade) put the Cavs into playoff mode earlier than Mobley's development timeline might have preferred.

[Ducklett]

He is a great player that every team would want but he isn't a top 2 player on a championship team imo.

[JujitsuFlip]

He is a great player that every team would want but he isn't a top 2 player on a championship team imo.

Honestly, agreed. The issue is he's being paid $53.8 million AAV.