Official 2025-2026 Regular Season Thread

[GelbeWand09]

Its not just raw +/-. Its EVERY available advanced stat. What is even so hard to understand about it. When a guy is a one way player but the thing he does, he does at a below leaque average efficieny, how should he be a positive player? Thats just simple math.
We all hope he gonna be better and he got the tools and showed some positive signs early before he got hurt BUT so far its just what Idiosyncratic wrote. If you believe it or not doesnt matter, because its a statistical fact.

[three3d]

That's a crazy contrast. I don't think it explains much, though. Lacks context about roles across various rotations and matchups.

I disagree, that's a large sample. Plus minus/ net rating ain't lying over the course of that many games for guys who play that many minutes. It doesn't tell ~everything~ but it is a significant data point.

Paolo hasn't been a large positive on the court in his career yet. Even if you believe in the guy there is no point revising what has already happened. We expect that to change, but so far it hasn't. Significantly below league average TS% combined with poor defense makes that very easy to comprehend. I believe in AB, but I would say the same about him. He hasn't been a huge positive yet. I think he is trending that way, just as I think Paolo was trending that way pre injury. Young players get better, but compared to Franz who already has had elite impact both will look a lot worse.

I expect some will label me a hater for pointing out a fact. But I still think the guy will get better, but if we are talking his career to this point the on/off, the scoring efficiency and the defense have been not that good. I fully expect he will get better, he's still young. Doesn't mean I fully expect him to be a bigger positive than Franz though.

I think Paolo will improve and I think the rest of the team is good enough this year to where we will still win a lot of games even if Franz misses significant time, especially combined with what feels like a league that lacks elite teams. We have schedule stretches coming up that are like Pacers, Wizards, Bulls, Nets , Pacers, Sixers, Pelicans, Grizzlies, Grizzlies, Hornets

It doesn't take revision it takes common sense. I've watched him play. He's been our best player in the playoffs. And in large chunks of the regular season. Raw plus minus does not tell the story, nor do fancy impact stats. They don't factor in role difficulty or rotations. You have to balance production, role, and impact stats if you want to get a good picture of future performance. There's a reason why coaches voted him in as an All-Star there's a reason why he's been the number one option from the get-go there's a reason why he's getting the double teams.

Arguing that someone is or best player in the Playoffs with a career playoff record of 4-8 and never getting out of the first round really isn’t saying much at all .

[Idiosyncratic]

Its not just raw +/-. Its EVERY available advanced stat. What is even so hard to understand about it. When a guy is a one way player but the thing he does, he does at a below leaque average efficieny, how should he be a positive player? Thats just simple math.
We all hope he gonna be better and he got the tools and showed some positive signs early before he got hurt BUT so far its just what Idiosyncratic wrote. If you believe it or not doesnt matter, because its a statistical fact.

Yeah, I think there is a really strong chance Paolo is going to be a really good player. I'm just saying to this point all of the obvious skills have not added up to that kind of impact yet.

I do think he was trending in a positive direction before the injury. Not going to be too hard on him for these first two games back. But the difference between Paolo and Franz at this point in their careers is that Franz has been a lot better so far, not really all that arguable.

I personally still believe in Paolo, but everyone can't be a hater for pointing out that he hasn't been that good YET. I do think it should be coming. And I'm not saying Eyriq is calling me a hater- I don't think he is, but it does feel that the discourse on Paolo as a whole has gotten to the point where being objective is lumped in with the hate.

I've really not had much smoke for how Paolo has played this year. I think he has been working on adapting. I think we can be fine if Franz misses a stretch. I'm more worried for Franz's own sake that it isn't a career altering injury for him.

[eyriq]

Its not just raw +/-. Its EVERY available advanced stat. What is even so hard to understand about it. When a guy is a one way player but the thing he does, he does at a below leaque average efficieny, how should he be a positive player? Thats just simple math.
We all hope he gonna be better and he got the tools and showed some positive signs early before he got hurt BUT so far its just what Idiosyncratic wrote. If you believe it or not doesnt matter, because its a statistical fact.

Impact stats no matter how advanced do not tell the full story.

[Idiosyncratic]

Its not just raw +/-. Its EVERY available advanced stat. What is even so hard to understand about it. When a guy is a one way player but the thing he does, he does at a below leaque average efficieny, how should he be a positive player? Thats just simple math.
We all hope he gonna be better and he got the tools and showed some positive signs early before he got hurt BUT so far its just what Idiosyncratic wrote. If you believe it or not doesnt matter, because its a statistical fact.

Impact stats no matter how advanced do not tell the full story.

I'm not even with the team plays better without Paolo arguments. Ultimate upside is going to be from the team playing better with Paolo because he is obviously very skilled.

But the way I see it is Paolo so far on a purely individual statistics basis has not been that good. Same can be said for the team with him on the court.

But Paolo is clearly really good at basketball and with a few tweaks can easily become a massive positive.

Both things can be true. I believe both. The first one is undeniable, it has already happened. The 2nd is why he got the large extension, team has to bank on him hitting his upside. I do too as a fan of the team. I have not given up on him just because I believe he has a bit to go to get better and because I believe Franz has been better to this point. That doesn't mean I'm out on Paolo.

[eyriq]

Its not just raw +/-. Its EVERY available advanced stat. What is even so hard to understand about it. When a guy is a one way player but the thing he does, he does at a below leaque average efficieny, how should he be a positive player? Thats just simple math.
We all hope he gonna be better and he got the tools and showed some positive signs early before he got hurt BUT so far its just what Idiosyncratic wrote. If you believe it or not doesnt matter, because its a statistical fact.

Yeah, I think there is a really strong chance Paolo is going to be a really good player. I'm just saying to this point all of the obvious skills have not added up to that kind of impact yet.

I do think he was trending in a positive direction before the injury. Not going to be too hard on him for these first two games back. But the difference between Paolo and Franz at this point in their careers is that Franz has been a lot better so far, not really all that arguable.

I personally still believe in Paolo, but everyone can't be a hater for pointing out that he hasn't been that good YET. I do think it should be coming. And I'm not saying Eyriq is calling me a hater- I don't think he is, but it does feel that the discourse on Paolo as a whole has gotten to the point where being objective is lumped in with the hate.

I've really not had much smoke for how Paolo has played this year. I think he has been working on adapting. I think we can be fine if Franz misses a stretch. I'm more worried for Franz's own sake that it isn't a career altering injury for him.

The problem is that people use impact stats to gaslight us about what we've been watching for the last three seasons. I'm all about impact stats, I think they tell you how good a player is doing at their job when you hold role and rotations constant. They don't tell you anything meaningful when you're comparing players across roles.

[three3d]

Its not just raw +/-. Its EVERY available advanced stat. What is even so hard to understand about it. When a guy is a one way player but the thing he does, he does at a below leaque average efficieny, how should he be a positive player? Thats just simple math.
We all hope he gonna be better and he got the tools and showed some positive signs early before he got hurt BUT so far its just what Idiosyncratic wrote. If you believe it or not doesnt matter, because its a statistical fact.

Impact stats no matter how advanced do not tell the full story.

Paolo stops the natural flow of the offense, everyone else on the court takes a statistical hit and Paolo doesn’t do enough other things good enough himself to make up for the lost production of others.

We don’t need stats to tell us Paolo is pretty awful at finishing at/near the rim for ANY NBA player much less a 6’10” forward with the size and speed he has. You can’t be bad a finishing at the room and also unreliable with your jump shot or settle for low percentage shots and have an overall positive effect on the team.

[eyriq]

Its not just raw +/-. Its EVERY available advanced stat. What is even so hard to understand about it. When a guy is a one way player but the thing he does, he does at a below leaque average efficieny, how should he be a positive player? Thats just simple math.
We all hope he gonna be better and he got the tools and showed some positive signs early before he got hurt BUT so far its just what Idiosyncratic wrote. If you believe it or not doesnt matter, because its a statistical fact.

Impact stats no matter how advanced do not tell the full story.

Paolo stops the natural flow of the offense, everyone else on the court takes a statistical hit and Paolo doesn’t do enough other things good enough himself to make up for the lost production of others.

We don’t need stats to tell us Paolo is pretty awful at finishing at/near the rim for ANY NBA player much less a 6’10” forward with the size and speed he has. You can’t be bad a finishing at the room and also unreliable with your jump shot or settle for low percentage shots and have an overall positive effect on the team.

Paolo right now is a good to very good young offensive engine whose box stats, role, accolades, and play-by-play models clearly support him as a positive player, while his on/off profile and efficiency raise fit and optimization questions rather than "is he actually good questions".

[eyriq]

He's definitely still developing and we are definitely still optimizing our build and system around him. I think a more interesting analysis is how a Paolo-less team is different from a Franz-less team, not whether Paolo is any good. He's clearly and unquestionably good.

[basketballRob]

The way Kerr played Paolo was interesting. He played him at center. Sure, he gives up some size, but he'd crush them on offense.


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[Fortune Teller]

Its not just raw +/-. Its EVERY available advanced stat. What is even so hard to understand about it. When a guy is a one way player but the thing he does, he does at a below leaque average efficieny, how should he be a positive player? Thats just simple math.
We all hope he gonna be better and he got the tools and showed some positive signs early before he got hurt BUT so far its just what Idiosyncratic wrote. If you believe it or not doesnt matter, because its a statistical fact.

Yeah, I think there is a really strong chance Paolo is going to be a really good player. I'm just saying to this point all of the obvious skills have not added up to that kind of impact yet.

I do think he was trending in a positive direction before the injury. Not going to be too hard on him for these first two games back. But the difference between Paolo and Franz at this point in their careers is that Franz has been a lot better so far, not really all that arguable.

I personally still believe in Paolo, but everyone can't be a hater for pointing out that he hasn't been that good YET. I do think it should be coming. And I'm not saying Eyriq is calling me a hater- I don't think he is, but it does feel that the discourse on Paolo as a whole has gotten to the point where being objective is lumped in with the hate.

I've really not had much smoke for how Paolo has played this year. I think he has been working on adapting. I think we can be fine if Franz misses a stretch. I'm more worried for Franz's own sake that it isn't a career altering injury for him.

The problem is that people use impact stats to gaslight us about what we've been watching for the last three seasons. I'm all about impact stats, I think they tell you how good a player is doing at their job when you hold role and rotations constant. They don't tell you anything meaningful when you're comparing players across roles.

Have role and rotations been significantly different for Franz and Paolo? And if role is dictated by playing style, does a difference there really exonerate Paolo if his style is less effective?

[rcklsscognition]

Franz 4 weeks to wait for reevaluation is what I just saw. Not terrible. Still feel cursed.

[basketballRob]

Franz 4 weeks to wait for reevaluation is what I just saw. Not terrible. Still feel cursed.

With the load he carries, 4 weeks off is probably a blessing for his body. He may not make the all-star team, tho.

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[Blue_and_Whte]

"Looking at the combination of player efficiency rating, usage rate differential, on/off net rating, and win probability added per 100 possessions, the empirical evidence paradoxically suggests an emergent team alpha when Paolo...blah blah blah.." This PB BS two games in? People need to just enjoy the ride. Good grief....