2025-26 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 2.0

[Tim_Hardawayy]

Btw, secondary rant, but I think Davion Mitchell is being significantly overrated by our entire organization. It hasn't hurt us yet (he's signed to a reasonable deal), but it does complicate our flexibility to our rotations and may have negative impact in the future.

People will look at basic counting statistics and say Davion's averaging 8 assists to only 1.5 turnovers, shooting 40% from 3, what more could you ask for? But I'd argue that's a little bit deceptive. If you watch the games, he gets basic ball handler assists, which is to say, drive and kicks, drive and drop offs, or just swinging the ball to an open shooter. But he rarely finds guys with passes you wouldn't expect, or runs effective pick and rolls, which are more of what you think of for a point guard.

In other words, I'd argue his 8 assists would just be distributed to other guys if he weren't in the lineup. I will say he's got a strong handle which relates to his low turnovers, and that's a positive, but that's his only really unique point guard attribute.

"But what about his 3 point shooting?" Well, other than the fact that it doesn't correlate to the rest of his career, and the volume is still relatively low, he's also a pretty mediocre free throw shooter (64% on the year, 69% for his career). This suggests he isn't a reliable, but streaky, shooter, and I think watching him game to game bares that out.

So then what you're really left with is a guy that is basically not going to hurt you offensively but doesn't really add much either, but hey he's the defensive lynchpin, right? Except as stated before, point guard is the most replaceable position on the court defensively. Its why the Warriors were able to win multiple chips with Steph there, why the Cavs did it with Kyrie, why we were able to do it with Mario Chalmers (I'm sorry but Mario was NOT a great defensive player despite his steals numbers).

Anyways, just stressing this because our marriage to Davion is really keeping us from running our best lineup, Tyler at point. This won't be an in depth numbers post, but running through the boxscores of last years games, Tyler was playing point a significant portion of them before Davion arrived. As illustrated in past posts, the team's overall net was higher with Tyler at point than shooting guard, and higher overall with Tyler than Davion. There's a perception that Davion lifts all boats just because he is a point guard, and he's a Heat style player, but I think its impacting the current squad reaching its potential, and that matters to me because if we don't land Giannis, they still have to make this work. Its as much malpractice as the refusal to play Ware, imo.

Its all related anyways. The Heat clearly want to give Herro 30 minutes a night at least, and they are still trying to keep Davion's minutes. So ultimately the minutes are coming from Ware, and that's dumb. I would accept completely wasting Herro as a 20 minute bench player even to preserve Ware's minutes, but the obvious and sensible move is to have Davion be the 20 minute bench hustle guy.

EDIT: Last point on the Herro at point thing, I do recall a period last year where Tyler was going off for like 10 games in a row, then other teams started to relentlessly pressure him in the backcourt, and it was an issue for a couple of games. That said, I'm pretty sure this came before Davion was on the roster, but also, this was while Jimmy was out, so the only other wings on the floor were guys like Duncan, Haywood, Pelle, and Jaime who was having a terrible sophomore slump. This year you have Norm who can definitely bring the ball up the floor, Pelle's handle has improved, Jaime is back to his old self, etc, so I don't think its as much of an issue now.

[Tim_Hardawayy]

Read on Twitter

Better than the whole league media ecosystem mobilizing against Miami's potential pursuit of a player. Still can't believe that sh*t

That Dame saga is the most heinous **** I can remember in a long time. Ultimately its hard to say it mattered because Dame's had injury issues the entire time since, and you can't just say he'd be healthy if he came here. But it did have other domino effects, like hastening Jimmy's departure.

[MartyCONLONNN]

Btw, secondary rant, but I think Davion Mitchell is being significantly overrated by our entire organization. It hasn't hurt us yet (he's signed to a reasonable deal), but it does complicate our flexibility to our rotations and may have negative impact in the future.

People will look at basic counting statistics and say Davion's averaging 8 assists to only 1.5 turnovers, shooting 40% from 3, what more could you ask for? But I'd argue that's a little bit deceptive. If you watch the games, he gets basic ball handler assists, which is to say, drive and kicks, drive and drop offs, or just swinging the ball to an open shooter. But he rarely finds guys with passes you wouldn't expect, or runs effective pick and rolls, which are more of what you think of for a point guard.

In other words, I'd argue his 8 assists would just be distributed to other guys if he weren't in the lineup. I will say he's got a strong handle which relates to his low turnovers, and that's a positive, but that's his only really unique point guard attribute.

"But what about his 3 point shooting?" Well, other than the fact that it doesn't correlate to the rest of his career, and the volume is still relatively low, he's also a pretty mediocre free throw shooter (64% on the year, 69% for his career). This suggests he isn't a reliable, but streaky, shooter, and I think watching him game to game bares that out.

So then what you're really left with is a guy that is basically not going to hurt you offensively but doesn't really add much either, but hey he's the defensive lynchpin, right? Except as stated before, point guard is the most replaceable position on the court defensively. Its why the Warriors were able to win multiple chips with Steph there, why the Cavs did it with Kyrie, why we were able to do it with Mario Chalmers (I'm sorry but Mario was NOT a great defensive player despite his steals numbers).

Anyways, just stressing this because our marriage to Davion is really keeping us from running our best lineup, Tyler at point. This won't be an in depth numbers post, but running through the boxscores of last years games, Tyler was playing point a significant portion of them before Davion arrived. As illustrated in past posts, the team's overall net was higher with Tyler at point than shooting guard, and higher overall with Tyler than Davion. There's a perception that Davion lifts all boats just because he is a point guard, and he's a Heat style player, but I think its impacting the current squad reaching its potential, and that matters to me because if we don't land Giannis, they still have to make this work. Its as much malpractice as the refusal to play Ware, imo.

Its all related anyways. The Heat clearly want to give Herro 30 minutes a night at least, and they are still trying to keep Davion's minutes. So ultimately the minutes are coming from Ware, and that's dumb. I would accept completely wasting Herro as a 20 minute bench player even to preserve Ware's minutes, but the obvious and sensible move is to have Davion be the 20 minute bench hustle guy.

EDIT: Last point on the Herro at point thing, I do recall a period last year where Tyler was going off for like 10 games in a row, then other teams started to relentlessly pressure him in the backcourt, and it was an issue for a couple of games. That said, I'm pretty sure this came before Davion was on the roster, but also, this was while Jimmy was out, so the only other wings on the floor were guys like Duncan, Haywood, Pelle, and Jaime who was having a terrible sophomore slump. This year you have Norm who can definitely bring the ball up the floor, Pelle's handle has improved, Jaime is back to his old self, etc, so I don't think its as much of an issue now.

Biggest issue is that he needs the ball to be most effective. He needs to be able to go from facilitator to catch and shoot threat to keep the offense dynamic and defenses from taking away the paint. I've seen too many times where he doesnt shoot an open 3 and he just needs to shoot every open 1 especially if Miami sees him as the guard beyond this season... and doubly if somehow Miami lands Giannis, Otherwise Dru is a better fit bc he will knock down the kickout 3 while providing + defense.

[greg4012]

Btw, secondary rant, but I think Davion Mitchell is being significantly overrated by our entire organization. It hasn't hurt us yet (he's signed to a reasonable deal), but it does complicate our flexibility to our rotations and may have negative impact in the future.

People will look at basic counting statistics and say Davion's averaging 8 assists to only 1.5 turnovers, shooting 40% from 3, what more could you ask for? But I'd argue that's a little bit deceptive. If you watch the games, he gets basic ball handler assists, which is to say, drive and kicks, drive and drop offs, or just swinging the ball to an open shooter. But he rarely finds guys with passes you wouldn't expect, or runs effective pick and rolls, which are more of what you think of for a point guard.

In other words, I'd argue his 8 assists would just be distributed to other guys if he weren't in the lineup. I will say he's got a strong handle which relates to his low turnovers, and that's a positive, but that's his only really unique point guard attribute.

"But what about his 3 point shooting?" Well, other than the fact that it doesn't correlate to the rest of his career, and the volume is still relatively low, he's also a pretty mediocre free throw shooter (64% on the year, 69% for his career). This suggests he isn't a reliable, but streaky, shooter, and I think watching him game to game bares that out.

So then what you're really left with is a guy that is basically not going to hurt you offensively but doesn't really add much either, but hey he's the defensive lynchpin, right? Except as stated before, point guard is the most replaceable position on the court defensively. Its why the Warriors were able to win multiple chips with Steph there, why the Cavs did it with Kyrie, why we were able to do it with Mario Chalmers (I'm sorry but Mario was NOT a great defensive player despite his steals numbers).

Anyways, just stressing this because our marriage to Davion is really keeping us from running our best lineup, Tyler at point. This won't be an in depth numbers post, but running through the boxscores of last years games, Tyler was playing point a significant portion of them before Davion arrived. As illustrated in past posts, the team's overall net was higher with Tyler at point than shooting guard, and higher overall with Tyler than Davion. There's a perception that Davion lifts all boats just because he is a point guard, and he's a Heat style player, but I think its impacting the current squad reaching its potential, and that matters to me because if we don't land Giannis, they still have to make this work. Its as much malpractice as the refusal to play Ware, imo.

Its all related anyways. The Heat clearly want to give Herro 30 minutes a night at least, and they are still trying to keep Davion's minutes. So ultimately the minutes are coming from Ware, and that's dumb. I would accept completely wasting Herro as a 20 minute bench player even to preserve Ware's minutes, but the obvious and sensible move is to have Davion be the 20 minute bench hustle guy.

EDIT: Last point on the Herro at point thing, I do recall a period last year where Tyler was going off for like 10 games in a row, then other teams started to relentlessly pressure him in the backcourt, and it was an issue for a couple of games. That said, I'm pretty sure this came before Davion was on the roster, but also, this was while Jimmy was out, so the only other wings on the floor were guys like Duncan, Haywood, Pelle, and Jaime who was having a terrible sophomore slump. This year you have Norm who can definitely bring the ball up the floor, Pelle's handle has improved, Jaime is back to his old self, etc, so I don't think its as much of an issue now.

Biggest issue is that he needs the ball to be most effective. He needs to be able to go from facilitator to catch and shoot threat to keep the offense dynamic and defenses from taking away the paint. I've seen too many times where he doesnt shoot an open 3 and he just needs to shoot every open 1 especially if Miami sees him as the guard beyond this season... and doubly if somehow Miami lands Giannis, Otherwise Dru is a better fit bc he will knock down the kickout 3 while providing + defense.

Yea he protects that 3pt percentage by being VERY selective in his 3PA. Telling that as a PG averaging 30 mpg and 8 apg he has effectively the same 3PA per game as Kel'el Ware (averaging 24 mpg) at around 2.5 3PA.

[Tim_Hardawayy]

Biggest issue is that he needs the ball to be most effective. He needs to be able to go from facilitator to catch and shoot threat to keep the offense dynamic and defenses from taking away the paint. I've seen too many times where he doesnt shoot an open 3 and he just needs to shoot every open 1 especially if Miami sees him as the guard beyond this season... and doubly if somehow Miami lands Giannis, Otherwise Dru is a better fit bc he will knock down the kickout 3 while providing + defense.

Davion's never going to be a good catch and shoot guy, his free throw percentage is pretty damning in that regard, there aren't a lot of great catch and shoot players who can't hit 70% at the line. His ceiling on a great team should be 20 minute bench hustle guy, though obviously if we land Giannis you can be fine with him at 30 minutes starting.

Although I actually do wonder if Dru wouldn't be a better overall fit on a Giannis squad anyways.

[MartyCONLONNN]

Biggest issue is that he needs the ball to be most effective. He needs to be able to go from facilitator to catch and shoot threat to keep the offense dynamic and defenses from taking away the paint. I've seen too many times where he doesnt shoot an open 3 and he just needs to shoot every open 1 especially if Miami sees him as the guard beyond this season... and doubly if somehow Miami lands Giannis, Otherwise Dru is a better fit bc he will knock down the kickout 3 while providing + defense.

Davion's never going to be a good catch and shoot guy, his free throw percentage is pretty damning in that regard, there aren't a lot of great catch and shoot players who can't hit 70% at the line. His ceiling on a great team should be 20 minute bench hustle guy, though obviously if we land Giannis you can be fine with him at 30 minutes starting.

Although I actually do wonder if Dru wouldn't be a better overall fit on a Giannis squad anyways.

in that hypothetical you absolutely go Dru starting because you're already struggling with Wigs and Bam being low volume mediocre shooters + you want Giannis having the ball having the ball to spray around off the double instead of Mitchell passing those up or being the main engine. He could do that with the 2nd unit especially considering that bench would be thin.

[SA37]

...People will look at basic counting statistics and say Davion's averaging 8 assists to only 1.5 turnovers, shooting 40% from 3, what more could you ask for? But I'd argue that's a little bit deceptive. If you watch the games, he gets basic ball handler assists, which is to say, drive and kicks, drive and drop offs, or just swinging the ball to an open shooter. But he rarely finds guys with passes you wouldn't expect, or runs effective pick and rolls, which are more of what you think of for a point guard. ...

Anyways, just stressing this because our marriage to Davion is really keeping us from running our best lineup, Tyler at point...

Mitchell's job is basically 2-fold: get into the lane on offense and keep opposing players out of the paint on defense. He's been solid at doing both of those things this season. It doesn't have to lead directly to assists or to lobs, but it breaks down defenses and gives the guy receiving the kickout an easier time getting to the bucket and then facing less resistance once he's past the initial defender.

Miami's offense only works if you can get into the lane and collapse the D for a 3 or kick it out to a guy who has a defender running at him.

Herro can be a primary ball-handler for stretches, but he's not good at getting to the line and he usually pulls up for floaters. His strengths are shooting and scoring, not playmaking and defending.

[marson]

Giannis is the perfect fit here and a chance to win the EAST. No dominant PG that can take away the ball from him, and the structure of the starting 5 is similar to 2021 Bucks Championship team.

Davion = Jrue
Powell = Middleton
Wiggins = Tucker
Giannis
Bam = Lopez

Enough to beat OKC/Denver? No. Puncher chance? Yes.

[eddieheatfan]

where is the sardine insider for our critical info? thats the only source that i can truly trust these days

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

Better than the whole league media ecosystem mobilizing against Miami's potential pursuit of a player. Still can't believe that sh*t

That had me fired UP, everyone picks and chooses where they want to go until god forbid they choose Miami. Coming off a finals and swapping guys for Dame that didn’t contribute to the run would’ve been wild and the fit of our top 3 guys would’ve been nearly perfect

[twix2500]

Watch on YouTube

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Giannis is the perfect fit here and a chance to win the EAST. No dominant PG that can take away the ball from him, and the structure of the starting 5 is similar to 2021 Bucks Championship team.

Davion = Jrue
Powell = Middleton
Wiggins = Tucker
Giannis
Bam = Lopez

Enough to beat OKC/Denver? No. Puncher chance? Yes.

Just gotta get there and see what happens tbh. We saw a crazy amount of injuries last year and as dominant as OKC has been it still took a massive game 4 4th quarter choke job from the Pacers to win the championship and who knows what happens if Hali doesn’t get hurt in game 7, he had like a quick 9 points in a couple minutes to start that game.

Dont wish injury on anyone obviously but Chet is highly injury prone so it’s no guarantee he’ll have another healthy run this year and who’s to say SGA doesn’t suffer a significant ankle sprain in game 2 after we steal game 1? That’s why you just play the game and get yourself there. Injuries screwed us in the 2020 finals and arguably 2023 with Jimmy’s ankle being cooked, maybe we’ll get some help one of these times

Nuggets matchup honestly doesn’t scare me much if we add Giannis to offset Jokic, the East doesn’t worry me in the least.

Get it done marson!!!!

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Watch on YouTube

I’m starting to see alot of disrespectful **** out here about my goat and his standing in greatness, pisses me off.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

This picture has been recycled so many times lol

[Beenie]

Added secondary benefit of getting Giannis, hopefully his game would rub off in some ways on Jovic.

If Niko is unable to develop better footwork and balance practicing everyday with Giannis, then he indeed would be a lost cause

[Wiltside]

Added secondary benefit of getting Giannis, hopefully his game would rub off in some ways on Jovic.

If Niko is unable to develop better footwork and balance practicing everyday with Giannis, then he indeed would be a lost cause

The one benefit of Niko playing poorly right now, is that his value is low. Given the extension, he'd be negative value right now and unlikely to be include in a Giannis package.

The positive side of this is that Niko is definitely better than what he has shown so far this year. He was better last year. He hasn't found his niche this season at all. If he can get back to being the facilitating 4 man who pushes the pace, hits open threes, and importantly MAKES GOOD DECISIONS...he can recuperate that value and be back being a solid contributor. If we deal Jaquez, Herro and others...he's going to have to get a chance and prove he can play.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

[SerialChiller]

Read on Twitter

After the whole Dame thing I'll never get my hopes up too much again and always remain skeptical. That way I can't get let down, only pleasantly surprised haha.

[Daffy]

Before Herro rejoined the team, the Heat had an Identity and was building on that I'D. What is the Heat's I'D since Herro's return?

Before Herro
116.0 OffRtg, 110.6 DefRtg

With Herro
111.3 OffRtg, 113.6 DefRtg

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Said it already, but what's more likely: That this was actually a 55 win team and Herro's been sabotaging them the whole time, or that they had a good stretch aided by a gimmick offense nobody was prepared for to start the season?

I actually would prefer if it was the former, because then the solution is simple, just trade Herro for a bag of chips and watch us contend and STILL have pieces we could trade for an upgrade. I don't think its that simple and I think people are setting themselves up for disappointment and resentment if they hold the team to that standard.

But people like to think heuristically, and its simpler to just say "Good without Herro, bad with" than to consider other variables.

EDIT: Once again greg bringing the numbers to back up what I'm saying.

Spoiler:

Before Herro rejoined the team, the Heat had an Identity and was building on that I'D. What is the Heat's I'D since Herro's return?

Before Herro
116.0 OffRtg, 110.6 DefRtg

With Herro
111.3 OffRtg, 113.6 DefRtg

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Definitely has been a shift. I think it has more to do with lack of any rotation consistency overall with A LOT of players being in and out of lineups. The biggest drags have been shift from hot 3pt shooting to cooling down, bench production dropping off a cliff, and defense overall lapsing.

Miami has played 8 games since Herro returned. Herro played in 6 of them.

Games without Herro during this stretch (2 games)

106.9 ORTG; 115.3 DRTG

Games with Herro during this stretch (6 games)

112.6 ORTG; 113 DRTG

Over that stretch of 8 games, only Bam, Ware (diminished role) and Dru Smith have been available for all 8 games.

Its a lot more complicated than, Herro bad. And I think just like teams can have stretches where they play poorly and underperform, they can also play above their heads, and at some point we might have to accept that explains a portion of the early stretch of the season. That said, I do think there's tweaks that can be made to get us back at least closer to that level of play. But I don't think its as simple as "Herro ruined it".

The funny thing about this whole Herro thing is there's numbers out there showing the 6 games Herro have played we have the same record in the first 6 games of the season without him.

There's also numbers showing we've been better in the minutes Herro and Powell play together and there are also numbers showing they're winning the minutes Herro has been on the court.

I just let people push narratives because once people minds are made up on nonsense takes they will continue to push narratives to prop up their favorite players or find a reason why their favorite player isn't having success carrying a team or just finding one person to blame the team's failures on. It's funny and sad to see at the same time people can't be serious and realistic about a team as a whole.

The bias is so crazy some fans would rather pay Powell the same that Herro wants while he's older and has similar post season holes outside of 1 season. Make it make sense man lol

[carnageta]

Giannis is the perfect fit here and a chance to win the EAST. No dominant PG that can take away the ball from him, and the structure of the starting 5 is similar to 2021 Bucks Championship team.

Davion = Jrue
Powell = Middleton
Wiggins = Tucker
Giannis
Bam = Lopez

Enough to beat OKC/Denver? No. Puncher chance? Yes.

OKC is in a league of their own.

Miami could absolutely beat Denver with Giannis. Giannis is the 2nd best player in the league.