Tale of two teams: 13-1 vs 6-10... DEFENSE!!!

[XTC]

13-1
PT/G: 118.4
2P%: 56.8%
2PA: 55.5
3P%: 35.9%
3PA: 32.2
FTA: 25.9
FT%: 79.1%
TS: 59.7% (#11)
RPG: 45.6
APG: 29.4
ORTG: 118.3 (#8)
DRTG: 106.9 (#2)
+/-: +11.4

6-10
PT/G: 107.5
2P%: 52.1%
2PA: 55.8
3P%: 32.9%
3PA: 35.9
FTA: 18.1
FT%: 76.9%
TS: 53.9% (#30)
RPG: 44.3
APG: 28.9
TO: 14.8
ORTG: 109.1 (#29)
DRTG: 114.5 (#12)
+/-: -5.1

Defense

13-1
Paint - Restricted Area: 66.5%
Paint - Non Restricted Area: 41.9%
Midrange: 31.8%
3P%: 30.3%

6-10
Paint - Restricted Area: 66.6%
Paint - Non Restricted Area: 45.1%
Midrange: 40.8%
3P%: 35.9%

13-1 // Perimeter
Opponents Shooting;
-9.7% worst when guarded by BI
-6.2% worst when guarded by IQ
-5.1% worst when guarded by Scottie
-1.6% worst when guarded by RJ
-8.0% worst when guarded by Sandro
-2.8% worst when guarded by JKW
-0.8% worst when guarded by Gradey
-0.8% worst when guarded by Ochai
+3.8% better when guarded by CMB
+1.3% better when guarded by Shead
-9.4% worst when guarded by Poeltl

13-1 // Paint
Opponent Shooting:
-6.6% worst when guarded by BI
-9.0% worst when guarded by IQ
-2.0% worst when guarded by Scottie
-2.4% worst when guarded by RJ
-5.7% worst when guarded by Sandro
+2.2% better when guarded by JKW
+9.3% better when guarded by Gradey
+17.5% better when guarded by Ochai
+10.0% better when guarded by CMB
+12.5% better when guarded by Shead
-6.6% worst when guarded by Poeltl

6-10 // Perimeter
Opponents Shooting;
-6.3% worst when guarded by BI
-5.7% worst when guarded by IQ
-9.2% worst when guarded by Scottie
+2.8% better when guarded by RJ
+12.9% better when guarded by Sandro
+0.6% better when guarded by JKW
+16.2% better when guarded by Gradey
-9.1% worst when guarded by Ochai
-1.6% worst when guarded by CMB
-11.0% worst when guarded by Shead
+1.5% better when guarded by Poeltl

6-10 // Paint
Opponents Shooting:
-11.6% worst when guarded by BI
+4.1% better when guarded by IQ
-7.5% worst when guarded by Scottie
-11.7% worst when guarded by RJ
-8.4% worst when guarded by Sandro
-12.0% worst when guarded by JKW
+9.2% better when guarded by Gradey
-3.6% worst when guarded by Ochai
-8.4% worst when guarded by CMB
+7.3% better when guarded by Shead
+5.9% better when guarded by Poeltl

This team was playing crazy good defense when we went on a 13-1 run earlier, the only team playing better defense than us was OKC. IQ, RJ, BI, Scottie, Poeltl with Sandro coming off the bench was money, but the injuries, and a secondary CENTER is hurting this team. Hopefully these stats show just how important Poeltl is to our defense(When healthy, he has been awful hobbled), this team needs another rim protector. On a side note, Scottie has been an absolute unit defensively. Gradey has been a sieve other than the 13-1 run, trade him he has been borderline unplayable this year. My stocks on JKW has just gotten higher, this kid is going to be a premier 3+D guard one day, he is a do not trade... CMB struggled out of the gates, but his defense has been amazing for a rookie lately. During this 6-10 skid CMB, JKW, and Scottie have been EXCELLENT defensively. BI is a good 1 v 1 defender, but his understanding of team defense is severely lacking. RJ + IQ are the teams most improved defenders, considering how it was last season.

Let me know if you guys want a breakdown offensively, during these two runs.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Well, yeah, Poeltl is a top 20 defender this year. I think he's top 5 in DDarko. Bigs tend to dominate defensive impact. We haven't had him at full strength and it hurts our defense.

Scottie has been a rock, but you can't fake size. There's shot contests we're not coming close to, rebounds we're not grabbing, it all adds up.

[Thaddy]

Well, yeah, Poeltl is a top 20 defender this year. I think he's top 5 in DDarko. Bigs tend to dominate defensive impact. We haven't had him at full strength and it hurts our defense.

Scottie has been a rock, but you can't fake size. There's shot contests we're not coming close to, rebounds we're not grabbing, it all adds up.

If we added another C and dropped IQ we would probably be better. Defensive consistency would be better than hot/cold shooting from IQ.

[Indeed]

Agree mostly, particularly the importance of Poeltl.

However, it seems we are better with Barnes playing C, even his last 2 games shooting well from 3s with Barrett back. This will be the biggest challenge if you play another C who cannot space the floor, other players will have to settle for jumpshot with a big in the paint. Your data on offense may provide some idea on this afterall.

Ingram, Barrett and Quickley are not guarding the opposing players, I suppose, and the sample size of Barrett would be a bit small.

Meanwhile, I always say I have Walter as the better prospect than Dick. However, I don't see Dick has any value. He isn't even doing well on his strength, which is shooting. Walter should get the starting role last season instead of Dick, I just failed to see the priority from the front office.

CMB is underrated on defense, as I said, he will be better than Barnes on defense. He got the quickness to guard 1 - 4, while Barnes is more 2 - 4.

[PushDaRock]

Offense seems to be the bigger issue.

[ConSarnit]

Part of this is just regression. No one is holding teams to 30% from 3 and 32% from MR over the course of an entire season.

A healthy Poeltl would help for sure but we were never going to keep up those defensive numbers on jump shots.

[Tacoma]

I don't dispute your analysis in and of itself but it ignores the context of teams we were playing against in these 2 small sample periods. So the best team we played against during the 13-1 period was Philly, accounting for our lone loss during this period. During the 6-10 period, we played NY, LAL, BOS & DEN, all of whom are better than Philly. Had we played these teams during the 13-1 period, we would not have been 13-1.

[HumbleRen]

Hasn’t our defence been better without RJ and Poeltl?

I don’t think defence is the issue, it’s our offence

[Shakril]

We only have two good defenders on the team, and one of those two is injured or played injured which was clearly visible.

Of course our defense will suffer. In the end, this team needs to survive until and if our Center comes back healthy. Otherwise we wont hold our current spot in the east and drop down into the play-in.

To the offence part i say, its the result of our defense, that our offense is not good either. We are allowing to many offensive rebounds for an example.

[Tripod]

There is a reason I had our win total dependent on Yaks's health, and no one else's.

[ConSarnit]

Hasn’t our defence been better without RJ and Poeltl?

I don’t think defence is the issue, it’s our offence

Our defense has suffered but a big part of that is likely shooting regression. Prior to this 6-10 slide we were on pace to be the best 3pt and MR defending team of all-time. Needless to say that wasn’t ever going to hold up.

Our offense has plain sucked since RJ and Poeltl have been injured. We are dead last in FTA. We are the 2nd worst 3pt shooting team during this period.

We can’t get points from 2 of the most valuable areas on the court: the free throw line and the 3pt line. Our shooters have been terrible. Dick and Agbaji have been atrocious. Shead can’t shoot. Barnes is shooting 31% from 3 over his past 25 games (not a good sign for “Barnes has fixed his shooting” theory). Combine that with players who can’t pressure the rim and it’s no wonder our offense is in the tank.

[C_Money]

I agree with people saying it’s the offence. Our shot making is so bad. Especially from the bench.

[YogurtProducer]

Well, yeah, Poeltl is a top 20 defender this year. I think he's top 5 in DDarko. Bigs tend to dominate defensive impact. We haven't had him at full strength and it hurts our defense.

Scottie has been a rock, but you can't fake size. There's shot contests we're not coming close to, rebounds we're not grabbing, it all adds up.

If we added another C and dropped IQ we would probably be better. Defensive consistency would be better than hot/cold shooting from IQ.

Yeah no.

If we had to rely on Shead to play 36mpg we are literally **** with teams zoning us to death.

Jak/Scottie/RJ is already a questionable shooting trio. Getting rid of your best shooter for another C is a recipe for disaster.

[YogurtProducer]

We only have two good defenders on the team, and one of those two is injured or played injured which was clearly visible.

Of course our defense will suffer. In the end, this team needs to survive until and if our Center comes back healthy. Otherwise we wont hold our current spot in the east and drop down into the play-in.

To the offence part i say, its the result of our defense, that our offense is not good either. We are allowing to many offensive rebounds for an example.

We have a top 5 defence this year.

Maybe we need to reevaluate our teams defensive ability, because you don’t be a top 5 defence with two good defenders and 1 hurt.

IQ and Shead are both above average at the 1
Ochai/Walter are above average at the 2
Scottie is a legit all-d candidate
Poeltl is also an underrrsted defender

We have no obvious “targets” for teams to attack outside maybe Mamu when he is playing C against bigger guys. But even then, we’ve weathered those minutes very well to.

[MiamiSPX]

Read on Twitter

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[YogurtProducer]

Offense seems to be the bigger issue.

OP even has it there. We are 12th in D during the 6-10 games, and almost last in O. I don’t know how you view that and conclude “it’s the defence”

[mdenny]

We only have two good defenders on the team, and one of those two is injured or played injured which was clearly visible.

Of course our defense will suffer. In the end, this team needs to survive until and if our Center comes back healthy. Otherwise we wont hold our current spot in the east and drop down into the play-in.

To the offence part i say, its the result of our defense, that our offense is not good either. We are allowing to many offensive rebounds for an example.

We have a top 5 defence this year.

Maybe we need to reevaluate our teams defensive ability, because you don’t be a top 5 defence with two good defenders and 1 hurt.

IQ and Shead are both above average at the 1
Ochai/Walter are above average at the 2
Scottie is a legit all-d candidate
Poeltl is also an underrrsted defender

We have no obvious “targets” for teams to attack outside maybe Mamu when he is playing C against bigger guys. But even then, we’ve weathered those minutes very well to.

It's weird how Poetl's greatest attribute is so seldomly mentioned: defending the picknroll. Partly because it's not obvious - when the play doesn't work it's usually attributed to the failings of the offensive player..... and partly because it's a deterrent so teams don't run it as much when he's on the floor.

One thing that i really miss in his game is the PNRs him and fred used to run. I wonder if that's something him and IQ could develop more.

Is IQ really better defender than the average pg? I kinda considered him slightly below average but that's not based on anything other than my eye.

Your other comment on zoning against Shead is spot on.

[HumbleRen]

I agree with people saying it’s the offence. Our shot making is so bad. Especially from the bench.

Our guys are very reliant on Poeltl setting screens to free them up. We miss Poeltl more on offence than we do defence.

[PushDaRock]

Offense seems to be the bigger issue.

OP even has it there. We are 12th in D during the 6-10 games, and almost last in O. I don’t know how you view that and conclude “it’s the defence”

We have also only had Jak look like himself for maybe 1/3 of the 21 games he's played. So, we've only had an effective Jak for maybe 20% of the season and yet we are still 5th in DRTG. No idea how people keep complaining about rim protection and all of our supposed poor defenders instead of the Offense which is now 20th this season and continuing to trend down.

[PushDaRock]

I agree with people saying it’s the offence. Our shot making is so bad. Especially from the bench.

Our guys are very reliant on Poeltl setting screens to free them up. We miss Poeltl more on offence than we do defence.

Let's get Amir Johnson back on a 10 day!!!