Siegel: Toronto trade intel

[YogurtProducer]

Sabonis is the center version of Josh Giddey: Empty stats, non-defender that box office watchers see nothing but the high rebounds instead of how bad the rest of the team around him is at grabbing boards.

He

Is not

A winning

Player

The Pacers (very limited) success was in spite of him/due to Oladipo being a star & the Kings got lucky with health the year they won the 3rd seed (They had the same record the season after & were in the play-in).

He doesn't contribute to winning, he's expensive, he doesn't space the floor, he's terrible as a defender and the advanced stats paints a picture of teams being better with him off the floor rather than on with a team's best players.

The team will be worse with Sabonis on it, regardless of who's on the outside in this hypothetical. Period.

I'll push back a bit.

Sabonis is 100% a winning player - he just isn't a $40M+ winning player. He is probably closer to like a RJ Barrett in terms of impact. Which is a solid starting caliber guy, but not a guy who should be the #1 paid guy on your team.

[MiamiSPX]

I'm okay standing pat. Just do the Ochai deal to get under the tax and call it a day.

[Tripod]

We don't "need" a crazy roster overhaul so I see more tweaks happening instead.

We 100% need more consistent shooting. We frankly have too much youth off the bench as youth is often inconsistent. It's why winningbtrams and developing kids often don't go hand & hand.

Even a simple deal like Ochai for Batum could help. We get a vet off the bench shooting 40% for 3 who has a club option so we can cut bait to save cap or keep him if he fits really well.

Clips are so old, they get a young guy in there to see for a few months to determine if they want to sign him or not.

[Jerry Lucas]

Sticking to a "Bobby unloading the IQ contract as the only outgoing starter" framework (as to not stray from what the reputable intel is pointing to), thought of a few trade ideas within these parameters, although they are still incomplete because I left outgoing/incoming picks out of it. The nitty gritty of specific valuations of draft capital always hijack trade discourse.

First 2 are a couple different variations of bamboozling Scott Perry, with 1 of them roping in the LaVine to Bucks rumours:





Next one is LaMelo to TOR:



Last one is Garland to TOR:



All these trades also bring an extra big into the fold depth wise, and duck the tax. Both of which line up with the Raptors widely reported interest in doing both of these things.

[ImaBeatDatAzz]

I would do IQ and Jakob for Sabonis and Monk. Thats only deal worth looking at with the kings

[LoveMyRaps]

I think we will likely stand pat and wait till the summer to make any big moves.

[Merit]

But there is no straight swap of the two. We are gutting two starters for Sabonis.

Would be a horrid move IMO

I have already shared a trade that would not move RJ, only IQ.

Sabonis and Ellis for IQ, Gradey, Ochai and Mogbo.

Gets us under the tax.

PG Shead/Ellis (but practically Scottie or RJ) + Martin/Hepburn
SG RJ/Walter
SF BI/Battle
PF Scottie/CMB
C Sabonis/Jak

Yeah, no trade is happening that leaves us with a PG rotation of a dude shooting 35% from the field and Ellis who is NOT a PG Ellis averages 0.6APG this year ffs

Disagree. IMO Ellis as a backup implies his role as a movement shooter and POA defender. That’s what I meant by “but practically scottie or RJ”. We need a POA defender, but we don’t need someone who is the lead ball handler all the time. Frankly, this is the same reason I suggested IQ as a super 6th man based upon his ability to shoot and his imperfections as a lead guard, present tense.

[arbsn]

I watched a lot of kings games because of DeMar. Trust me, you guys do not want Sabonis. He just hustles hard for rebounds but when he is matched up against a 7 footer or a real rebounder its over for him. They will out rebound him when it matters most. And his offence is just like Jaks he just shoots it alot more than him and is easy to stop in the playoffs. He can hit an occasional open three but he isn't a floor spacer. He's just way to small and has a short wingspan to be an effective center out there. His defence is just plain bad. His playing making is alright but nothing special he is not no Jokic.

Getting him will just create new problems that we would have to figure out to fix.

The only way I would be okay is if we keep Jak as his backup. But even then I would hate it.

Don't know what games your talking about. Sabonis has been one of the best rebounders in the league. He is up against 7 footers all year round and out rebounds them cause he has a good nose for the ball. He has been one of the best offensive rebounders in the league. That's an extra 3-4 possessions he is generating for his team. This doesn't include the balls he taps to his teammates for offensive rebounds. That probably puts him at being related to 6-7 extra possessions a game. Apart from the 6-7 possessions he is making a difference on the offensive rebounding side. His ability to haul down rebounds in general is also preventing the opponent from getting offensive rebounds. That's probably like a 10 possession swing. Also, his ability to draw out opposing Cs and put the ball on the ground. His defense may not be like Wemby, but he is not the Pylon people who are claiming him to be. I feel people make these assessments without actually watching him play, but just think big white stiff and therefore cannot defend. Sabonis is a cerebral player that is what the new NBA is about. Look at a guy like Mamba has all the physical tools and should be inhaling every rebound. The guy looks like a 4 year old lost on the street. When Sabonis is matched against Rudy Gobert he is averaging 12.3 rebounds a game. Don't understand what you are saying that when he is matched against a real 7 footer he gets exposed.

If you can get a Sabonis the positives outweigh the negatives.

I don’t think you’ve ever watched Sabonis. He is flat out bad at defense and routinely gets worked on that end in the playoffs. Kevon Looney ate his lunch in a playoff series.

He is (by the numbers) a worse offensive rebounder than Poeltl. He regularly has an offensive rebound rate outside of the top 30 centers in the league. No, he is not a great offensive rebounder. Also, balls you tap to teammates count as rebounds, so you’re off there too.

None of the numbers show he’s even an average defender or a great offensive rebounder.

I strongly disagree that Sabonis is bad at Defense.

I actually think he's at least as good as Poeltl plus he is a better rebounder and has better hands.

One of the best rebounders in the NBA, excellent hands (averaging 1.2 spg), He almost always leads his team in DBPM, Sabonis came 10th in DPOY voting in 2024

Sure he doesn't move great... few big men do and you can always close with a defense focused lineup with scottie or CMB at C.

His lack of rim protection can be fixed by having elite defensive players around him (CMB, Barnes)

If you can get Sabonis for Poeltl+contracts you do it ASAP

[YogurtProducer]

I have already shared a trade that would not move RJ, only IQ.

Sabonis and Ellis for IQ, Gradey, Ochai and Mogbo.

Gets us under the tax.

PG Shead/Ellis (but practically Scottie or RJ) + Martin/Hepburn
SG RJ/Walter
SF BI/Battle
PF Scottie/CMB
C Sabonis/Jak

Yeah, no trade is happening that leaves us with a PG rotation of a dude shooting 35% from the field and Ellis who is NOT a PG Ellis averages 0.6APG this year ffs

Disagree. IMO Ellis as a backup implies his role as a movement shooter and POA defender. That’s what I meant by “but practically scottie or RJ”. We need a POA defender, but we don’t need someone who is the lead ball handler all the time. Frankly, this is the same reason I suggested IQ as a super 6th man based upon his ability to shoot and his imperfections as a lead guard, present tense.

Man.. we are a lottery team if we roll a Shead/Ellis PG tandem. Probably closer to bottom 10 than we are to the playoffs.

IDK why some of you think we just don't need IQ's shooting It is the most important skill that we get from IQ/Shead right now, and the one we cannot afford to lose the most.

[Merit]

Sabonis is the center version of Josh Giddey: Empty stats, non-defender that box office watchers see nothing but the high rebounds instead of how bad the rest of the team around him is at grabbing boards.

He

Is not

A winning

Player

The Pacers (very limited) success was in spite of him/due to Oladipo being a star & the Kings got lucky with health the year they won the 3rd seed (They had the same record the season after & were in the play-in).

He doesn't contribute to winning, he's expensive, he doesn't space the floor, he's terrible as a defender and the advanced stats paints a picture of teams being better with him off the floor rather than on with a team's best players.

The team will be worse with Sabonis on it, regardless of who's on the outside in this hypothetical. Period.

I'll push back a bit.

Sabonis is 100% a winning player - he just isn't a $40M+ winning player. He is probably closer to like a RJ Barrett in terms of impact. Which is a solid starting caliber guy, but not a guy who should be the #1 paid guy on your team.

My optimism around Sabonis is twofold: his passing (difficult to quantify) and his rebounding. Additionally, he would not be the only player coming back in trade. Depending on your valuation of Carter and Ellis (Imo Ellis is an upgrade on Ochai/Walter/Gradey and Carter has been blocked by Monk, Lavine and Demar in terms of ball handling) there is upside there too.

I’m content with a team of almost all stars like the pistons of old. Frankly, rebounding is our achilles heel without Jak, as evidenced by CMB playing a small ball C role. I’d rather we have Sabonis and scheme for him defensively than have 24 minutes of CMB and 24 minutes of Jak.

Then again, I’m probably a bit indifferent to IQ and am certainly open to moving Gradey and Ochai. Let’s see what the front office does. I hear you on Sabonis’ shortcomings, and I also think context matters. IMO he would be excellent here with our egalitarian offense. The question becomes where does he get his shots? To me the answer is in lieu of IQ.

[YogurtProducer]

I strongly disagree that Sabonis is bad at Defense.

I actually think he's at least as good as Poeltl plus he is a better rebounder and has better hands.

Well... you can disagree all you like but Sabonis downright bad defensively, whereas Poeltl is good, maybe even great, on that end.

It frankly isn't close.

[YogurtProducer]

Sabonis is the center version of Josh Giddey: Empty stats, non-defender that box office watchers see nothing but the high rebounds instead of how bad the rest of the team around him is at grabbing boards.

He

Is not

A winning

Player

The Pacers (very limited) success was in spite of him/due to Oladipo being a star & the Kings got lucky with health the year they won the 3rd seed (They had the same record the season after & were in the play-in).

He doesn't contribute to winning, he's expensive, he doesn't space the floor, he's terrible as a defender and the advanced stats paints a picture of teams being better with him off the floor rather than on with a team's best players.

The team will be worse with Sabonis on it, regardless of who's on the outside in this hypothetical. Period.

I'll push back a bit.

Sabonis is 100% a winning player - he just isn't a $40M+ winning player. He is probably closer to like a RJ Barrett in terms of impact. Which is a solid starting caliber guy, but not a guy who should be the #1 paid guy on your team.

My optimism around Sabonis is twofold: his passing (difficult to quantify) and his rebounding. Additionally, he would not be the only player coming back in trade. Depending on your valuation of Carter and Ellis (Imo Ellis is an upgrade on Ochai/Walter/Gradey and Carter has been blocked by Monk, Lavine and Demar in terms of ball handling) there is upside there too.

I’m content with a team of almost all stars like the pistons of old. Frankly, rebounding is our achilles heel without Jak, as evidenced by CMB playing a small ball C role. I’d rather we have Sabonis and scheme for him defensively than have 24 minutes of CMB and 24 minutes of Jak.

Then again, I’m probably a bit indifferent to IQ and am certainly open to moving Gradey and Ochai. Let’s see what the front office does. I hear you on Sabonis’ shortcomings, and I also think context matters. IMO he would be excellent here with our egalitarian offense. The question becomes where does he get his shots? To me the answer is in lieu of IQ.

Yeah we are not winning with a team that has no shooting. It just simply isn't an option in the modern NBA.

24 minutes of CMB and Jak is 48 minutes total of above average, bordering on great, defensive play.

Sabonis is 32+ minutes of guys attacking him over, and over, and over.

[Merit]

Yeah, no trade is happening that leaves us with a PG rotation of a dude shooting 35% from the field and Ellis who is NOT a PG Ellis averages 0.6APG this year ffs

Disagree. IMO Ellis as a backup implies his role as a movement shooter and POA defender. That’s what I meant by “but practically scottie or RJ”. We need a POA defender, but we don’t need someone who is the lead ball handler all the time. Frankly, this is the same reason I suggested IQ as a super 6th man based upon his ability to shoot and his imperfections as a lead guard, present tense.

Man.. we are a lottery team if we roll a Shead/Ellis PG tandem. Probably closer to bottom 10 than we are to the playoffs.

IDK why some of you think we just don't need IQ's shooting It is the most important skill that we get from IQ/Shead right now, and the one we cannot afford to lose the most.

Disagree again. What’re Ellis’ shooting percentages again? .355 from 3. IQ? .354.

True shooting? .517 for Ellis (his career average is .624) IQ is at .563. We won’t be losing shooting. It’ll just show up differently. We also gain Ellis’ POA defense.

EDIT: Let’s not forget that historically, Sabonis doesn’t shoot 3’s. However, last year he took 2.2 3’s a game - double his career rate and shot .417 from 3. If we’re considering his overall shooting - Sabonis is a true shooting monster with a .615 career average (his past 3 year average is .653) on high usage. Bottom line: nobody is closing out on Jak at the top of the key. They sure AF are closing out on Sabonis.

[arbsn]

I strongly disagree that Sabonis is bad at Defense.

I actually think he's at least as good as Poeltl plus he is a better rebounder and has better hands.

Well... you can disagree all you like but Sabonis downright bad defensively, whereas Poeltl is good, maybe even great, on that end.

It frankly isn't close.

If Rebounding = defense and advanced stats (ie DBPM, DWS) matter then it is a lot closer than you make it.

Sabonis is better than Poeltl in every statistical category outside of block% (due to his trex arms and lack of speed)

Sabonis has also been more durable throughout his career and is a year younger

Again, if we can get Sabonis for Poeltl, you insta do it

[Merit]

I'll push back a bit.

Sabonis is 100% a winning player - he just isn't a $40M+ winning player. He is probably closer to like a RJ Barrett in terms of impact. Which is a solid starting caliber guy, but not a guy who should be the #1 paid guy on your team.

My optimism around Sabonis is twofold: his passing (difficult to quantify) and his rebounding. Additionally, he would not be the only player coming back in trade. Depending on your valuation of Carter and Ellis (Imo Ellis is an upgrade on Ochai/Walter/Gradey and Carter has been blocked by Monk, Lavine and Demar in terms of ball handling) there is upside there too.

I’m content with a team of almost all stars like the pistons of old. Frankly, rebounding is our achilles heel without Jak, as evidenced by CMB playing a small ball C role. I’d rather we have Sabonis and scheme for him defensively than have 24 minutes of CMB and 24 minutes of Jak.

Then again, I’m probably a bit indifferent to IQ and am certainly open to moving Gradey and Ochai. Let’s see what the front office does. I hear you on Sabonis’ shortcomings, and I also think context matters. IMO he would be excellent here with our egalitarian offense. The question becomes where does he get his shots? To me the answer is in lieu of IQ.

Yeah we are not winning with a team that has no shooting. It just simply isn't an option in the modern NBA.

24 minutes of CMB and Jak is 48 minutes total of above average, bordering on great, defensive play.

Sabonis is 32+ minutes of guys attacking him over, and over, and over.

Disagree again. Last year Sabonis’ DBPM was 1.1. That’s tied with CMB’s 1.1 mark this year.

The year prior, Sabonis’ DBPM was 2.4. That’s above scottie’s year to date mark of 2.2.

With the exception of his first 2 years in the league, Sabonis has never been a negative DBPM player.

[JCP11]

Sabonis is a good player but he's not what the Raptors need. Give this team a bigger two way PG and an healthy Poeltl were good for this year. I want as many two way guys as possible in the starting lineup.

[Merit]

[.

I like that. Looks like the Rudy Gay trade. Gives us way more depth & experience.

Honestly, I’d rather we got Sabonis + Ellis for IQ/Ochai/Gradey.

That said, in this trade I’d replace saric with Carter, and keep Keon Ellis. We can draft bigs next year, and already have CMB. Monk/Carter/Ellis for IQ.

[Merit]

Over 70mil allocated to Sabonis and Poeltl is a recipe for disaster. Thought of it makes me nauseous.

Yea man, Sabonis is not our guy. Because he needs a defensive 7 footer to back him up or the team is screwed. Just not worth it at his contract.

I believe you. Let’s turn our attention to acquiring a star point guard instead. The big man market doesn’t intrigue me.

I’m open to all options. Of the point guards allegedly available, Lamelo is the most interesting to me.

[Valard]

Stand pat. Grow your young guys. See what you are.

[pilkoids]

wtf is this ****

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