Trae Young, Come on DOWN

[nate33]

It seems like most people on this board seem to think that the Wizards will trade Young within the next year. Although that is a possibility, I think it is more likely that they re-sign him. I find it hard to believe that Young would want to come here without some sort of under-the-table handshake on an extension. I would say there is about a 75% chance they will resign him, although I would rather them not.

Trae doesn't have a no trade clause. He had no say on where they traded him.

The narrative that he wanted to come here is a joke. When did that story come out? Was if the day of the trade or the day before?

A few days before that the rumor came out that he wanted to go to the Nets or Wolves but they weren't interested.

I'm worried that lastemp3ror is probably right.

I'm certain that part of the negotiation involving trading for Trae was to get Trae to agree on sitting out for an extended period of time to "rest" his "injuries". Trae presumably wants to play as much as possible to rehab his all-time-low value as soon as possible, so that he can put himself in position to opt out and sign a good extension either here or elsewhere this summer. In order to get Trae agree to sit out, we may have had to negotiate some sort of extension to compensate Trae for not being able to fully showcase himself.

As I've said before, I'm only interested in a Trae extension if the terms are pretty favorable to us (less than $30M a year) and only if we don't draft Peterson or Flemings in the draft. I don't want to be stuck with Trae on a $40M a year deal when we have a better, two-way lead guard already on the roster.

[payitforward]

For sure.... Trae's a lot more likely to get worse than he is to return to his best years. & anyway, in principle, we have to be looking for a *next generation* point guard.

For sure he'll pick up his option, but otherwise all bets are off, especially given that it didn't cost us much to acquire him.

[tontoz]

If we resign Trae i might have to take a break from watching the games. I would rather pay $20 million per year to Jared Butler.

[lastemp3ror]

I'm certain that part of the negotiation involving trading for Trae was to get Trae to agree on sitting out for an extended period of time to "rest" his "injuries". Trae presumably wants to play as much as possible to rehab his all-time-low value as soon as possible, so that he can put himself in position to opt out and sign a good extension either here or elsewhere this summer. In order to get Trae agree to sit out, we may have had to negotiate some sort of extension to compensate Trae for not being able to fully showcase himself.

Exactly. If you listen to Young's introduction and the one question about his injury status, he basically said it is up to the Wizards when it comes to when he starts to play. No chance he would say such a thing when he is up for a contract extension. PLUS, he hasn't been playing well when he is healthy. He knows his "value" is down, and the only way he can raise his stock is by playing. He would also want to play this year, so he can potentially secure money beyond next year. Everything about this trade screams the Wizards will throw money at him; the question is how much.

[Frichuela]

I'm certain that part of the negotiation involving trading for Trae was to get Trae to agree on sitting out for an extended period of time to "rest" his "injuries". Trae presumably wants to play as much as possible to rehab his all-time-low value as soon as possible, so that he can put himself in position to opt out and sign a good extension either here or elsewhere this summer. In order to get Trae agree to sit out, we may have had to negotiate some sort of extension to compensate Trae for not being able to fully showcase himself.

Exactly. If you listen to Young's introduction and the one question about his injury status, he basically said it is up to the Wizards when it comes to when he starts to play. No chance he would say such a thing when he is up for a contract extension. PLUS, he hasn't been playing well when he is healthy. He knows his "value" is down, and the only way he can raise his stock is by playing. He would also want to play this year, so he can potentially secure money beyond next year. Everything about this trade screams the Wizards will throw money at him; the question is how much.

Yep. I’m afraid you are right.

In such case, I hope it is not a long-term extension but a 2+1 contract where the final year is a TO.

[AFM]

We're now dooming about things that haven't happened yet.

[doclinkin]

I have faith in Michael Winger and in our medical team. I get the sense over the years that the Hawks docs have not been among the best in the league. Seems like there’s often lingering issues. And Trae has been the only thing they’ve had to sell tickets so they rely on his competitive urge to get him back on the floor quickly. Age 27 is generally the athletic prime but not when you’re still recuperating from lingering Achilles issues. I think the Wiz docs have the benefit of a tank year to SaddiqBey the guy and rebuild him to the highest standard they can reach.

After that it’s an open question if the team sees value in him. But so far they’ve extended Deni, Kuzma, and Kispert to tradable deals. Cheap salaries. Declining salaries. Flat salaries. Etc. And we’ve gotten decent value for them.

Whereas the other small combo guard vets we’ve acquired were only kept long enough to bump up their value and trade them.

If the docs think Traes decline is largely medically related then we take their advice if it can be rehabbed going forward. That may mean they ink him to a tradable extension based on the likelihood of his regaining All star form, but at a discount given he was shipped for an expiring contract and a role playing no defense shooter.

Then we showcase him as a lead guard, rehab his rep with an emphasis on passing and how he can uplift young players by feeding them easy buckets. And require him to put in a little effort on D with those retooled legs. Boom. Articles on the maturation of Trae as a leader blah blah blah. While he’s quietly shopped for value.

I expect though he picks up the option year and plays out next season on the same plan: Look like a mature savvy vet who makes his teammates better etc. Tutors TJ and Bub. Or a PG. if we draft one. Let them understudy behind a former all star. Yeah he gives up points on defense. But he feeds Starr, Bilal, Cam, Marvin for easy buckets and highlights. Kicks out for open shots to our 40% snipers outside the 3 line. Looks like a leader even if he’s quietly still leading the tank.

If we put rebounding and muscle next to Sarr I think the length on this team is enough to make Trae look playable on defense. A little bit.

And so we are exciting in a stealth tank year where we look like we are trying to win. Ship him for value as an expiring deal. And are one year closer to extensions on all our youth movement. We’ve seen no defense gunners at combo guard on this team. We don’t keep them long. They are contract year cap placeholders who can teach our young pups. This time we landed the former all star version that’s all.

[The Consiglieri]

Can't really say much at this point without seeing how the rest of the season shakes out. Short term I'm hopeful that we'll lose quite a few games until Trae enters the lineup again at a minimum.

This is probably how I should view it as well. If we manage to protect the first and preferably finish slot 1-3, then its immaterial, and probably helped. If somehow he plays and costs us our pick, yeah, it would basically be the worst trade in franchise history, and a fandom killing one for me. So obviously not a lot of volatility in terms of outcome view lol.

In and of itself, if you look at assets out and assets in, it looks like a positive, the chief concerns people have are totally explicable:
#1 It changes a lot, so it could potentially put at risk the only thing that matters this year: our first being as high as possible and protectec.
#2 All the concerns people had with Trae when he came out have been amplified over time and become even worse. Total defensive liability, a bit of a black hole on offense, and the 3 that was barely adequate now isn't etc...

So the disparity in views of the deal are completely understandable. Obviously we are probably getting the best asset here and the second best contract, on the negative side, I don't think anyone considers him a winning player anymore, but there are concerns that a shift in the lineup and roster could really harm the tank, and it's already been dramatically harmed by a 3 week run by the 7-5 run they recently went on after losing 20 of their opening 23 games of the year, this idiotic run sent us tumbling down the standings from a locked in first worst side, to the 4 slotting.

[The Consiglieri]

There is a chance he doesn't play much here. They could sit him out this season due to 'injuries', then flip him in the summer.

That would be a dream come true. But in reality, he has no trade value. What the Wizards paid is what he's worth on the market.

Might be more valuable closer to the end of that player option in '27. It could change, '27 FA class looks pretty interesting so teams might be interested in order to free up money for '27, otoh, I don't think we will want to add money for that very same reason, especially since the '27 rookie class is looking like hot garbage so far.

[nate33]

I have faith in Michael Winger and in our medical team. I get the sense over the years that the Hawks docs have not been among the best in the league. Seems like there’s often lingering issues. And Trae has been the only thing they’ve had to sell tickets so they rely on his competitive urge to get him back on the floor quickly. Age 27 is generally the athletic prime but not when you’re still recuperating from lingering Achilles issues. I think the Wiz docs have the benefit of a tank year to SaddiqBey the guy and rebuild him to the highest standard they can reach.

After that it’s an open question if the team sees value in him. But so far they’ve extended Deni, Kuzma, and Kispert to tradable deals. Cheap salaries. Declining salaries. Flat salaries. Etc. And we’ve gotten decent value for them.

Whereas the other small combo guard vets we’ve acquired were only kept long enough to bump up their value and trade them.

If the docs think Traes decline is largely medically related then we take their advice if it can be rehabbed going forward. That may mean they ink him to a tradable extension based on the likelihood of his regaining All star form, but at a discount given he was shipped for an expiring contract and a role playing no defense shooter.

Then we showcase him as a lead guard, rehab his rep with an emphasis on passing and how he can uplift young players by feeding them easy buckets. And require him to put in a little effort on D with those retooled legs. Boom. Articles on the maturation of Trae as a leader blah blah blah. While he’s quietly shopped for value.

I expect though he picks up the option year and plays out next season on the same plan: Look like a mature savvy vet who makes his teammates better etc. Tutors TJ and Bub. Or a PG. if we draft one. Let them understudy behind a former all star. Yeah he gives up points on defense. But he feeds Starr, Bilal, Cam, Marvin for easy buckets and highlights. Kicks out for open shots to our 40% snipers outside the 3 line. Looks like a leader even if he’s quietly still leading the tank.

If we put rebounding and muscle next to Sarr I think the length on this team is enough to make Trae look playable on defense. A little bit.

And so we are exciting in a stealth tank year where we look like we are trying to win. Ship him for value as an expiring deal. And are one year closer to extensions on all our youth movement. We’ve seen no defense gunners at combo guard on this team. We don’t keep them long. They are contract year cap placeholders who can teach our young pups. This time we landed the former all star version that’s all.

I really don't think they intend to tank yet another year next season. A top 6 pick, plus Trae, plus a vet free agent, plus another year of improvement for all the youngsters translates into a 35-win team at worst, and probably closer to .500.

You make a good point in trusting Winger to sign him to a below-market contract as he has done for virtually every player signed under his tenure. But that's going to be especially tricky with a guy like Trae who presumably has a highly inflated valuation of himself, as no-D scorers often do.

For example, let's say they convinced Trae that he is worth no more than $30M a year, going forward. That means Trae can argue that he will be paid $49M, $30M and $30M over the next three years respectively, so he will opt out of his contract and sign a new contract that pays him $36.3M a year. And now we're stuck with a 3-year deal at $36.3M per year. Does it seem plausible that he can be traded for value with a contract like that?

Ultimately, I think the best case scenario is for Trae to play out his player option here at $49M and then they can decide in Summer 2027 whether to keep him. For one, it takes the long term risk out of the equation. And secondly, it frontloads his payment to the maximum extent possible, which fits our long term cap plan. I'm just concerned that they have already negotiated an extension - or at least they have made a guarantee of a minimum baseline for an extension.

[lastemp3ror]

There is no chance we are tanking next year, on purpose at least. Young will want to play for a new contract, our young player will be much better, plus a top pick this year. On top of that, I am pretty confident that Ted's patience is wearing thin. I think he wants to put butts in seats asap.

[Kanyewest]

I could see the tank proceeding involuntarily if things like Young not working out, bad lottery luck, or injuries (ie Young missing even more time). But yeah could also see a big increase in wins if the development of the young guys continue.

[The Consiglieri]

I'm looking forward to 40 wins next year, maybe 50 if I'm greedy. Then maybe being players in free agency again after next year. Maybe that makes me impatient or guilty of not expecting enough out of the team. I'm ready to bank on continued improvement of our young guys though. Trae is kind of peripheral to that - I don't see him as central to that kind of jump. It could have been any vets they added this offseason - I would have expected that kind of winning and turnaround. It just happens to be Trae that was available. Is he the right guy? Who knows.

All kind of hinges on keeping the pick this year and not doing an over the top extension for Trae.

50 wins is greedy.

It's not too hard to improve from a 25-win team to a 40-win team, but wins come a lot harder after that. The team is still very young, raw and lacking in strength.

The 50+ dream requires a top 2 pick in '26, and us being right about his upside, and another mega stud acquired, which we currently don't have, that will necessitate a trade, or internal developement, I don't buy Trae becoming any of that. I think he's gone in 2 years. Hopefully we get Mikel, or Peterson and can trade him at the deadline in '27.

I am presuming we will finish bottom 3 or 4, but I will note, man is it annoying that 2 of the bottom 3 are currently classic, "David Robinson is injured so the Playoff Spurs land Tim Duncan," sorts of teams, in that Indiana, would be a top 2-3 seed in the East, but injuries have sabotaged their season and they are executing a flawless tank, meanwhile the Mavs should be a top 10 team, but their brain damaged, idiot former GM was allowed by the owner to make the worst trade in NBA history (or close to it), and so the Mavs are picking top 3 pre lottery too. The Saving grace here is even after a 7-5 run, we are still bottom 5 in the league, if we keep that going, land a top pick, get say Peterson, or Brown, then we are set at PG and don't need Trae. What fascinates me is if we are slotted in a zone where Peterson is not available, and the options are between Dybantsa, Boozer, Caleb Wilson, or looking at a Brown or a Flemings, what do they do? Do they decide to just pay Trae, and draft a big, or a Wing? Do they go after a PG anyway?

Fascinating Situation. Worrisome for now as we can dip quite low if we continue to win games. Currently I'm projecting 4-5 wins before the All Star Break which would put us at 14-39 or 15-38 before a stretch run of 29 games to end the season....Really interesting predicament.

Seems like Mikel might be dropping, other than him, it looks like the roof falls out of the top tier chunk of the draft around pick 6 which necessitates a dead last finish which seems unlikely. Damn Suns!!!

[doclinkin]

I could see the tank proceeding involuntarily if things like Young not working out, bad lottery luck, or injuries (ie Young missing even more time). But yeah could also see a big increase in wins if the development of the young guys continue.

This is where I land. I don’t expect Trae to be a big upgrade in the wins column. I do think he will improve our offense. I think it’s possible we are still posting losses, involuntarily, if in a more exciting way. So: not sandbagging to avoid wins. But still in asset accumulation phase and earning a high pick.

No matter who we get in this years draft I don’t think we have our team yet. And Trae as huge expiring contract only holds the place for us in that way. I think it’s best for all camps if he picks up his option and plays to earn his next job.

[payitforward]

...the best case scenario is for Trae to play out his player option here at $49M and then they can decide in Summer 2027 whether to keep him....

I can't imagine Trae failing to pick up his option -- even if he's decided he'd rather be somewhere else. Money sooner is worth more than money later. & it's better for us as well -- it's easier for us to spend $$ next year than it will be subsequently.

...I'm just concerned that they have already negotiated an extension - or at least they have made a guarantee of a minimum baseline for an extension.

Anything's possible, but that seems unlikely to me. Given the zillion variables in our future, I can't see Winger doing that voluntarily, & I don't think Trae has leverage to apply either. For that matter, we DO have leverage to apply, given what everyone just learned about Trae's current trade value!

[AFM]

Watch on YouTube

[Jay81]

Not sure is anyone saw the interview with Johnny Dawkins and the junkies but Dawkins said Trae is not healthy right now at all

[AFM]

Watch on YouTube

[popper]

Watch on YouTube

Thanks for video AFM. What strikes me for a guy who's a super star offensively, that he appears to have very little muscle definition. It doesn't look like he's lifting at all. Strange.

[TheBlackCzar]

This OKC FO that we have here has known Trae since he was about 10years old.....
They did not trade for him to be let go or traded again, UNLESS we secured a superior option, and I don't know if they're looking in that direction right now.....

While everyone is worried about rings and playoffs, our guys need to learn how to play team professional basketball....
None of them truly know how to do this....
So while it sounds good, to plug and play this player and that player, this is not 2k....
We got Trae to orchestrate not be the centerpiece IMHO....
But if we want to make some noise soon, we're going to need a couple of seasons playing high level ball to get there....
Trae can be the catalyst for this...
He's imperfect I get that, but offense can aide defense....

Get used to it, he's not going anywhere so I think these scenarios are as out there as sitting CJ on the bench to tank.....
It's just some things you don't do when you are trying to build a reputation as a destination players would want to come to....

I believe from this offseason forward they are going to try and build the team up from it's shortcomings at PF, and will look to get some more defenders in here...
I'd not be surprised if they went after either Hartenstein or Dort or both......