Yes or No: One of the Big 3 will underwhelm

[JMAC3]

I know we will all have AJ, Boozer and Peterson ranked pretty high as the consensus top 3. What are the chances that at least 1 of them underwhelms?

Here is the worst pick out of the top 3 in the last 20 consecutive NBA Drafts.

Risacher, Scoot, Jabari Smith, Jalen Green, James Wiseman, RJ Barrett, Marvin Bagley, Markelle Fultz, Brandon Ingram, Jahlil Okafor, Jabari Parker, Anthony Bennett, Michael Kidd Gilchrist, Derrick Williams, Derek Favors, Thabeet, Beasley, Oden, Morrison, Marvin Williams.

I don't really have a threshold of what makes them a failure, because the cases are so different, but generally if Dybantsa, Peterson or Boozer have a similar career to any of these players I think it will be pretty easy to look back and say they underwhelmed.

The best cases for no disappointment in the top 3 are Ingram/Simmons in 2016

There are a lot of years where there at least 2 guys that were failures, so if you want to base on trends there is probably a better chance that that 2 of them fail then 0 of them fail.

[Caneman786]

I'd say 30% chance. Every one of the big three goes #1 in last year's draft (Meant 2024), as well as probably 2021 or 2022.

[JMAC3]

Personally, if we are basing it on recent history aka the last 20 drafts. I would have it at least 80%.

[Caneman786]

Personally, if we are basing it on recent history aka the last 20 drafts. I would have it at least 80%.

Yeah, but that's the difference between this draft and previous drafts. All of these players are #1-pick caliber when you look at recent years. And the #1 pick busts at a far lower rate than the #2 or #3 picks.

Boozer in particular has a really high floor.

[JMAC3]

Personally, if we are basing it on recent history aka the last 20 drafts. I would have it at least 80%.

Yeah, but that's the difference between this draft and previous drafts. All of these players are #1-pick caliber when you look at recent years. And the #1 pick busts at a far lower rate than the #2 or #3 picks.

Boozer in particular has a really high floor.

Yeah, we play this game every year tho.
Oh this Draft is great or bad or mediocre and most of the time the top 3 are pretty similar outcomes.

This isn't the first draft in the last 20 years that people thought was really good.

[greenOakX]

I think there's a >50% chance all three end up being at least Ben Simmons / Brandon Ingram level. In the last 20 years, 2018 (where I would've had Doncic, JJJ, and Ayton in that order) is the only draft with a better top 3 imo.

That being said, people are going to be very underwhelmed by if any of them are no better than Brandon Ingram. Given the (unrealistic) expectations placed on top draft picks, it is extremely likely that one of the big 3 underwhelms.

[ReggiesKnicks]

I mean, it is obviously quite high, right?

Give each prospect an 80% chance of not being underwhelmed, and it's essentially a 50/50 chance that at least one will disappoint.

[JMAC3]

I mean, it is obviously quite high, right?

Give each prospect an 80% chance of not being underwhelmed, and it's essentially a 50/50 chance that at least one will disappoint.

I would think so, but when evaluating the class or draft pick value people have the hit rate way higher than that of 50/50 the player could underwhelm.

Idk just interesting because I feel like we often lean into "this year will be different" too often.

[tmorgan]

I'd say 30% chance. Every one of the big three goes #1 in last year's draft, as well as probably 2021 or 2022.

You’re taking Cam Boozer over Cooper Flagg?

I’m not taking any of them over Coop, but I can understand arguments for DP and Dybantsa. But Boozer? Really?

…there’s also the fact I don’t have Boozer 3rd, or 4th, but that’s a different argument.

[vincecarter4pres]

I'd say 30% chance. Every one of the big three goes #1 in last year's draft, as well as probably 2021 or 2022.

Boozer doesn’t go #1 over Flagg. Idk if any of them do tbh, though it would be crazy close.

[ReggiesKnicks]

I'd say 30% chance. Every one of the big three goes #1 in last year's draft, as well as probably 2021 or 2022.

I don't consider Boozer to be the same caliber of prospect as Flagg.

[Caneman786]

I'd say 30% chance. Every one of the big three goes #1 in last year's draft, as well as probably 2021 or 2022.

You’re taking Cam Boozer over Cooper Flagg?

I’m not taking any of them over Coop, but I can understand arguments for DP and Dybantsa. But Boozer? Really?

…there’s also the fact I don’t have Boozer 3rd, or 4th, but that’s a different argument.

When I wrote that, I meant 2024 which had Risacher, Sarr, and Sheppard.

I do disagree, though, with this idea that Cooper Flagg isn't in the same tier as Cameron Boozer as a prospect. Cam would have a chance to be #1

And Cooper Flagg also may have gone above Peterson and Dybantsa as well, just like he may have gone over Boozer. We'll never know for sure, but there's a reason they're called the "Big Three", and not the "Big Two (+ Boozer)". In fact, most consensus drafts have Boozer above Dybantsa (as per ESPN's aggregate board).

[Duke4life831]

None of these guys would go over Cooper last year. Just a quick comparison

Flagg conference stats:
21/7/4 on 65 TS%
PER: 37.5
WS/40: .375

AJ conference stats:
22/7/4 on 61 TS%
PER: 26.3
WS/40: .187

Boozer conference stats:
22/8/5 on 74 TS%
PER: 32.5
WS/40: .251

Peterson conference stats:
24/6/1 on 59 TS%
PER: 36.1
WS/40: .217

Now I went with conference stats because the 3 this year stats are still heavily weighted by the bad out of conference schedule and Flagg also had the deep tournament run on top of the full schedule. Just too uneven of a schedule at the moment to compare them 1 to 1. So I went with the conference stats so far, even though its small sample size.

Here are the big differences for Flagg. It's not just that his offensive numbers are on par or better than these guys, its the fact he was also an elite defender. Something that cant be said for any of the other 3 at the moment. Defensive win shares, Flagg tied for 1st. Defensive rating, Flagg was 3rd. DBPM, Flagg was tied for 4th. Not in his conference, but in the entire D1 of college basketball.

The other thing, Flagg did this essentially 1 year younger than these guys (7 months younger than Boozer). The fact that Flagg did this at a higher level, on both ends and did it at a younger age. He would go 1st overall.

And to answer the question of this thread. First thing first, I dont think its a lock that these are even going to be the top 3 picks. Let alone all 3 not underwhelming. The odds of that happening is extremely low.

[babyjax13]

Flagg was a better prospect than I rated him out as. I think he might eventually be an MVP caliber player and I saw him being the next tier down. I agree that none of these guys go over him, and I think it is pretty likely that someone in the top 3/4 disappoints because that is how things usually go. I think this year the disappointment will not be that one of them totally busts, though, just that they aren't one of a team's top-2 players moving forward.

[EmpireFalls]

2025 Cooper Flagg is a tier above each of these players as a pro prospect.

[Chuck Everett]

Just wanted to say I am not sure Reed Sheppard will have a better career than Risacher. At least not yet anyway.

I feel the same way about Brandon Miller and Scoot Henderson.

And of the three, I would say Boozer, but here's the thing about Cam, the guy knows how to play, so while he may not become a star, I wouldn't be surprised if he had a longer career than the other two, just consistently being a really good player like his dad.

[FarBeyondDriven]

2025 Cooper Flagg is a tier above each of these players as a pro prospect.

he's not

[SeattleJazzFan]

None of these guys would go over Cooper last year. Just a quick comparison

Flagg conference stats:
21/7/4 on 65 TS%
PER: 37.5
WS/40: .375

AJ conference stats:
22/7/4 on 61 TS%
PER: 26.3
WS/40: .187

Boozer conference stats:
22/8/5 on 74 TS%
PER: 32.5
WS/40: .251

Peterson conference stats:
24/6/1 on 59 TS%
PER: 36.1
WS/40: .217

Now I went with conference stats because the 3 this year stats are still heavily weighted by the bad out of conference schedule and Flagg also had the deep tournament run on top of the full schedule. Just too uneven of a schedule at the moment to compare them 1 to 1. So I went with the conference stats so far, even though its small sample size.

Here are the big differences for Flagg. It's not just that his offensive numbers are on par or better than these guys, its the fact he was also an elite defender. Something that cant be said for any of the other 3 at the moment. Defensive win shares, Flagg tied for 1st. Defensive rating, Flagg was 3rd. DBPM, Flagg was tied for 4th. Not in his conference, but in the entire D1 of college basketball.

The other thing, Flagg did this essentially 1 year younger than these guys (7 months younger than Boozer). The fact that Flagg did this at a higher level, on both ends and did it at a younger age. He would go 1st overall.

And to answer the question of this thread. First thing first, I dont think its a lock that these are even going to be the top 3 picks. Let alone all 3 not underwhelming. The odds of that happening is extremely low.

Flagg also played in a ridiculously weak p4 conference - acc last year was equivalent to good mid-major conference. the difference between last year's acc and this year's big12 is night and day. even this year's acc that boozer is playing in is a lot better than the acc last year.

to be very clear, i'm not even saying you're wrong about flagg being a better prospect than all these guys - but those numbers are absolutely skewed by weak competition.

[ReggiesKnicks]

2025 Cooper Flagg is a tier above each of these players as a pro prospect.

he's not

I'm inching Peterson closer to Flagg's tier, but I have Dybantsa and Boozer a clear tier below Flagg.

Flagg is a Top 5 prospect for me since LeBron, pretty comfortably.

If you aren't as high on Flagg, then perhaps you do have Dybantsa and Boozer closer to Flagg, but I am happy with being incredibly high on Flagg, and then seeing him in the NBA makes me think Flagg will be a huge home run for me.

[Duke4life831]

None of these guys would go over Cooper last year. Just a quick comparison

Flagg conference stats:
21/7/4 on 65 TS%
PER: 37.5
WS/40: .375

AJ conference stats:
22/7/4 on 61 TS%
PER: 26.3
WS/40: .187

Boozer conference stats:
22/8/5 on 74 TS%
PER: 32.5
WS/40: .251

Peterson conference stats:
24/6/1 on 59 TS%
PER: 36.1
WS/40: .217

Now I went with conference stats because the 3 this year stats are still heavily weighted by the bad out of conference schedule and Flagg also had the deep tournament run on top of the full schedule. Just too uneven of a schedule at the moment to compare them 1 to 1. So I went with the conference stats so far, even though its small sample size.

Here are the big differences for Flagg. It's not just that his offensive numbers are on par or better than these guys, its the fact he was also an elite defender. Something that cant be said for any of the other 3 at the moment. Defensive win shares, Flagg tied for 1st. Defensive rating, Flagg was 3rd. DBPM, Flagg was tied for 4th. Not in his conference, but in the entire D1 of college basketball.

The other thing, Flagg did this essentially 1 year younger than these guys (7 months younger than Boozer). The fact that Flagg did this at a higher level, on both ends and did it at a younger age. He would go 1st overall.

And to answer the question of this thread. First thing first, I dont think its a lock that these are even going to be the top 3 picks. Let alone all 3 not underwhelming. The odds of that happening is extremely low.

Flagg also played in a ridiculously weak p4 conference - acc last year was equivalent to good mid-major conference. the difference between last year's acc and this year's big12 is night and day. even this year's acc that boozer is playing in is a lot better than the acc last year.

to be very clear, i'm not even saying you're wrong about flagg being a better prospect than all these guys - but those numbers are absolutely skewed by weak competition.

Ya I agree the ACC was weak last year. But I still think that is a closer comparison, than these guys who have played 16-17 games and 8-9 of those games have been against teams that tend to have 1 player above 6'8 and that player is extremely slow. Vs like Flagg playing against a bad Stanford team that had Maxime Raynaud and Oziyah Sellers.

For instance, I have AJ as my #1 guy in this class and would have him easily as my #2 guy last year (#1 in most drafts). I watched him in person against Eastern Washington. You cant take anything away from that game at all. The only reason those guys are D1 players is because D1 college basketball is 350+ teams.

I also say the other thing with Flagg is those numbers carried against non ACC competition. Looking at his NCAA tournament run, not even including the 1st round against a 16 seed, he averaged 23/8/5 against Baylor, Arizona, Alabama, and Houston.