Caleb Wilson

[LofJ]

I see Blake Griffin, but with more potential on defense. In most drafts he'd be the number one pick.

[clyde21]

Elite prospect. Him and Kingston Flemings would be running away with the 1st overall pick is most drafts but not this one. Insane how good both of these freshman are.

I cannot think of many drafts where either would be running away with first overall, especially Flemings, except for 2024 in recent memory.

there are like 5 players in this class that would be runaway 1st overall in 2024 lol

[EmpireFalls]

Elite prospect. Him and Kingston Flemings would be running away with the 1st overall pick is most drafts but not this one. Insane how good both of these freshman are.

I cannot think of many drafts where either would be running away with first overall, especially Flemings, except for 2024 in recent memory.

there are like 5 players in this class that would be runaway 1st overall in 2024 lol

Absolutely, but just doing this as a thought exercise

2025 - Flagg still #1
2023 - Wemby no debate
2022 - I think Caleb and Paolo/Chet are comparable prospects he could go #1 depending on who likes who
2021 - Cade a superior prospect
2019 - Zion superior prospect

[King Ken]

I cannot think of many drafts where either would be running away with first overall, especially Flemings, except for 2024 in recent memory.

there are like 5 players in this class that would be runaway 1st overall in 2024 lol

Absolutely, but just doing this as a thought exercise

2025 - Flagg still #1
2023 - Wemby no debate
2022 - I think Caleb and Paolo/Chet are comparable prospects he could go #1 depending on who likes who
2021 - Cade a superior prospect
2019 - Zion superior prospect

Cade wasn't that good.
I'll take Caleb and Kingston ahead of 2022 as well.
Flagg over those two but behind Boozer, AJ, and Peterson.

[greenOakX]

What do we think Caleb's offensive ceiling is? My model loves him - it's easy to see why given the rebounding, playmaking, and stock generation, but I have serious doubts as to whether he can be a great offensive player in the NBA. I wouldn't be as concerned if he projected as an elite rim protector in the NBA since those guys can still have all-star level impact with limited offense, but I view Caleb more as a defensive playmaking 4 than a true rim-protecting center.

Seems like a good play finisher and connector, but given the lack of self-creation and outside shot, I find it difficult to imagine him being much better than a +1/+2 player on offense, and it's easy to see him being a negative on that end.

I still like him as a prospect, but he strikes me as a high-floor low-ceiling guy more so than anyone else in the top 5.

[tontoz]

What do we think Caleb's offensive ceiling is? My model loves him - it's easy to see why given the rebounding, playmaking, and stock generation, but I have serious doubts as to whether he can be a great offensive player in the NBA. I wouldn't be as concerned if he projected as an elite rim protector in the NBA since those guys can still have all-star level impact with limited offense, but I view Caleb more as a defensive playmaking 4 than a true rim-protecting center.

Seems like a good play finisher and connector, but given the lack of self-creation and outside shot, I find it difficult to imagine him being much better than a +1/+2 player on offense, and it's easy to see him being a negative on that end.

I still like him as a prospect, but he strikes me as a high-floor low-ceiling guy more so than anyone else in the top 5.

Hard to get a read on his offense since they are posting him up so often which will definitely not be the case in the NBA. His midrange shot looks pretty good to me. Ball handling not very good, struggles with balance after contact.

Hard to say

[eminence]

I don't see a particularly high floor (not bad either), but similar thoughts on ceiling.

He's not a guy I would envision building an offense around, but can see him developing into an efficient 2nd/3rd guy. Primary concern is if he's actually NBA good good on defense or just a guy (c'mon Hendricks, develop for us). Seems like a pretty small 6'10.

[ezhkw8u69e]

His ceiling is Aaron Gordon basically.

[vincecarter4pres]

His ceiling is Aaron Gordon basically.

His ceiling lol?

[ezhkw8u69e]

His ceiling is Aaron Gordon basically.

His ceiling lol?

yes.

[vincecarter4pres]

His ceiling is Aaron Gordon basically.

His ceiling lol?

yes.

Spicy take.

[babyjax13]

His ceiling lol?

yes.

Spicy take.

Is it? Aaron Gordon is pretty great ...

[vincecarter4pres]

yes.

Spicy take.

Is it? Aaron Gordon is pretty great ...

As a ceiling? Yes. Would never call Gordon “great” tbh. He’s a really good role player who fits in a lot of lineups. If his ceiling is Aaron Gordon, he should go late lotto.

[ezhkw8u69e]

it's actually a shame AG didn't figure out his true calling early in his career, because his mid-to-late career has absolutely been "great". My concern for Caleb is he doesn't have the BBIQ AG has to turn to if the "I wannabe a star" phase doesn't work out for him.

[babyjax13]

Spicy take.

Is it? Aaron Gordon is pretty great ...

As a ceiling? Yes. Would never call Gordon “great” tbh. He’s a really good role player who fits in a lot of lineups. If his ceiling is Aaron Gordon, he should go late lotto.

I think Wilson's ceiling is higher, but Aaron Gordon's career arc probably makes him top-8 in most drafts.

[ezhkw8u69e]

4/5 picks

2023 - Amen and Ausar
2022 - Keegan and Ivey
2021 - Barnes and Suggs
2020 - PatWill and Okoro
2019 - Hunter and Garland


I can keep going. I'd take AG out of any of these outcomes.

[CptCrunch]

Many posters on here have a warped perception of data. They think of "ceiling" as some absolute maximum, as opposed to quantitatively viewing it as the expectation of the maximum. They let their perception of the absolute max cloud their judgment and get into nonsense arguments.

Let's clarify some terminology here:

"Maximum" refers to the ceiling in terms of the best-case developmental scenario. Since not all prospects develop the same way, this is best understood as a distribution. Otherwise, one could argue that any single prospect, including Caleb Wilson, could be the next LeBron, Curry, and Jordan combined.

EvanZ is likely describing an average-case maximum, or formally, the median of the maximum of the outcome distribution.

Absolute maximum would be the 99th or 99.9th percentile development of the maximum of that distribution - think Butler, Reaves, Brunson are near this tail region in development.

Regardless, I think having Aaron Gordon as the expectation of the median of the maximum is not unreasonable, but Caleb Wilson is clearly a better rebounder than Gordon.

[ezhkw8u69e]

I do agree he’s an incredible rebounder.

[greenOakX]

Many posters on here have a warped perception of data. They think of "ceiling" as some absolute maximum, as opposed to quantitatively viewing it as the expectation of the maximum. They let their perception of the absolute max cloud their judgment and get into nonsense arguments.

Let's clarify some terminology here:

"Maximum" refers to the ceiling in terms of the best-case developmental scenario. Since not all prospects develop the same way, this is best understood as a distribution. Otherwise, one could argue that any single prospect, including Caleb Wilson, could be the next LeBron, Curry, and Jordan combined.

EvanZ is likely describing an average-case maximum, or formally, the median of the maximum of the outcome distribution.

Absolute maximum would be the 99th or 99.9th percentile development of the maximum of that distribution - think Butler, Reaves, Brunson are near this tail region in development.

Regardless, I think having Aaron Gordon as the expectation of the median of the maximum is not unreasonable, but Caleb Wilson is clearly a better rebounder than Gordon.

I might sound pedantic, but it doesn't make sense to talk about an "expectation of the maximum" when you have a sample size of 1. If there were 10 Caleb Wilson clones, we could estimate what the best outcome of those 10 players would be, but with a sample size of 1, the average maximum is the same as the average minimum, which is just the average.

I do agree with your general point about absolute ceilings, though. Would anyone have said that Nikola Jokic's ceiling was the best player in the league and a top 20 player of all-time? We know his absolute ceiling was at least that high. Personally, when I think about 'ceiling,' I think about roughly the 90th percentile outcome for that player. Alternatively, if you gave me 9-1 odds that a player becomes as good (or better) than their 'ceiling', would I consider it a fair bet.

[ezhkw8u69e]

Many posters on here have a warped perception of data. They think of "ceiling" as some absolute maximum, as opposed to quantitatively viewing it as the expectation of the maximum. They let their perception of the absolute max cloud their judgment and get into nonsense arguments.

Let's clarify some terminology here:

"Maximum" refers to the ceiling in terms of the best-case developmental scenario. Since not all prospects develop the same way, this is best understood as a distribution. Otherwise, one could argue that any single prospect, including Caleb Wilson, could be the next LeBron, Curry, and Jordan combined.

EvanZ is likely describing an average-case maximum, or formally, the median of the maximum of the outcome distribution.

Absolute maximum would be the 99th or 99.9th percentile development of the maximum of that distribution - think Butler, Reaves, Brunson are near this tail region in development.

Regardless, I think having Aaron Gordon as the expectation of the median of the maximum is not unreasonable, but Caleb Wilson is clearly a better rebounder than Gordon.

I might sound pedantic, but it doesn't make sense to talk about an "expectation of the maximum" when you have a sample size of 1. If there were 10 Caleb Wilson clones, we could estimate what the best outcome of those 10 players would be, but with a sample size of 1, the average maximum is the same as the average minimum, which is just the average.

I do agree with your general point about absolute ceilings, though. Would anyone have said that Nikola Jokic's ceiling was the best player in the league and a top 20 player of all-time? We know his absolute ceiling was at least that high. Personally, when I think about 'ceiling,' I think about roughly the 90th percentile outcome for that player. Alternatively, if you gave me 9-1 odds that a player becomes as good (or better) than their 'ceiling', would I consider it a fair bet.

Bro you literally did the exact same thing except with deciles instead of average. LMAO