Mikel Brown Jr.

[tontoz]

How is it harsh?
It's his shooting percentages.
Shooting doesn't come naturally for him. Can the guy try to average one steal per game? No effort with this kid at all.

This is why sample size matters. 6 games later he is now shooting 34.6% on 3s, 52.6% on 2s and actually does average 1.2 steals per game.

"shooting doesn't come naturally to him" because he struggles early in his freshman season? SMH

I had a vald reason to say it.
It just so happens that he's played well in a few games straight. So, that can always change, and it took him until now to prove he had it in him.

I do like him when he's not making mistakes constantly.

So you think it is valid to say a guy will never be a good shooter because he struggled for 12 games? OK

[Cammo101]

7 Turnovers in a loss last night.

More mistakes that will be ignored by some fans. 13 turnovers in two games.

To me this is a much bigger concern than the shooting. He will work best in the NBA with a secondary ball hander.

[HMFFL]

This is why sample size matters. 6 games later he is now shooting 34.6% on 3s, 52.6% on 2s and actually does average 1.2 steals per game.

"shooting doesn't come naturally to him" because he struggles early in his freshman season? SMH

I had a vald reason to say it.
It just so happens that he's played well in a few games straight. So, that can always change, and it took him until now to prove he had it in him.

I do like him when he's not making mistakes constantly.

So you think it is valid to say a guy will never be a good shooter because he struggled for 12 games? OK

I think my concerns have been valid considering he has been projected in the top 8.

You see, I make adjustments with my evolutions, but you stay the course, and keep defending him. If you had the ability to make adjustments on your own it would be great. We'll see if he can make it four straight games. I have been a critic and have praised him when it has been warranted.

He has played well in three straight games so I'm happy it has given you some life now. He has been a disappointment and he's a liability since he often turns the ball over.

[tontoz]

I had a vald reason to say it.
It just so happens that he's played well in a few games straight. So, that can always change, and it took him until now to prove he had it in him.

I do like him when he's not making mistakes constantly.

So you think it is valid to say a guy will never be a good shooter because he struggled for 12 games? OK

I think my concerns have been valid considering he has been projected in the top 8.

You see, I make adjustments with my evolutions, but you stay the course, and keep defending him. If you had the ability to make adjustments on your own it would be great. We'll see if he can make it four straight games. I have been a critic and have praised him when it has been warranted.

He has played well in three straight games so I'm happy it has given you some life now. He has been a disappointment and he's a liability since he often turns the ball over.

Saying he will NEVER be a good shooter after 12 games, and any team drafting him is making a mistake, leaves no room to make adjustments. Is English your second language?

Saying that I dropped him out of my top 8 pending a big turnaround in play, THAT is giving yourself room to make adjustments.

Pointing out the small sample size was just an obvious fact of statistics, that the sample size matters. For whatever reason you can't seem to grasp that and now less than a month later your posts look ridiculous.

[tontoz]

I am starting to think Mikel might be a bit of a frontrunner. He hasn't really shown the ability to play well when it gets tough, something I have seen from the other top pgs.

Seems like he is just wilting in the 2nd half against UNC.

[The-Power]

I am starting to think Mikel might be a bit of a frontrunner. He hasn't really shown the ability to play well when it gets tough, something I have seen from the other top pgs.

He's simply more flash than substance at this point, and he has a chucker-mentality who also doesn't seem to care too much about the defensive possessions. He'll have to seriously adapt his approach or else it's very easy to see him wash out of the NBA after a couple years.

[BigGargamel]

He's just not a point guard. If you aren't a point guard, you better be a great shooter, and he's not that either. He's a high volume creator, and what good does that do in today's NBA?

[Caneman786]

Mikel Brown Jr.'s collegiate career has come to an end as the 6 seed Louisville Cardinals lose to the 3 seed Michigan State Spartans in the round of 32 of the NCAA tournament. The final score was 69-77, and Mikel Brown Jr. sat out the game with a back injury (which also caused him to miss the first round of the tournament for Louisville, but they were able to win that game).

Brown Jr.'s season played in 21 of Louisville's 35 games (which is actually less than Darryn Peterson, who so far has played 23 of 34 games).

In these games, he started 19 of them and played 29.2 minutes per game.

In those minutes, he averaged 18.2 points per game, 3.3 rebounds (0.0 offensive rebounds, only 1 offensive rebound the entire season!), 4.7 assists (with 3.1 turnovers), 1.2 steals, and 0.1 blocks (3 blocks total in the season).

He made 50.4% of his two-point shots, 34.4% of his three-point shots, and 84.4% of his free throws (on 122 attempts!).

58.6% of his shots were three-pointers, and he had a free throw rate of .447, giving him a true shooting percentage of 57.7%.

In conference play, his true shooting percentage was still 57.6% (which is impressive how it's virtually the same as in non-conference games).

Louisville ended their season with a 24-11 record.

Brown Jr. is clearly one of the best shooters and scorers in the draft class, and a great offensive prospect. He's solidly in the mix with the top four point guards of the draft class, the other three being Houston's Kingston Flemings, Illinois's Keaton Wagler, and Arkansas's Darius Acuff Jr.

[SNPA]

Mikel Brown Jr.'s collegiate career has come to an end as the 6 seed Louisville Cardinals lose to the 3 seed Michigan State Spartans in the round of 32 of the NCAA tournament. The final score was 69-77, and Mikel Brown Jr. sat out the game with a back injury (which also caused him to miss the first round of the tournament for Louisville, but they were able to win that game).

Brown Jr.'s season played in 21 of Louisville's 35 games (which is actually less than Darryn Peterson, who so far has played 23 of 34 games).

In these games, he started 19 of them and played 29.2 minutes per game.

In those minutes, he averaged 18.2 points per game, 3.3 rebounds (0.0 offensive rebounds, only 1 offensive rebound the entire season!), 4.7 assists (with 3.1 turnovers), 1.2 steals, and 0.1 blocks (3 blocks total in the season).

He made 50.4% of his two-point shots, 34.4% of his three-point shots, and 84.4% of his free throws (on 122 attempts!).

58.6% of his shots were three-pointers, and he had a free throw rate of .447, giving him a true shooting percentage of 57.7%.

In conference play, his true shooting percentage was still 57.6% (which is impressive how it's virtually the same as in non-conference games).

Louisville ended their season with a 24-11 record.

Brown Jr. is clearly one of the best shooters and scorers in the draft class, and a great offensive prospect. He's solidly in the mix with the top four point guards of the draft class, the other three being Houston's Kingston Flemings, Illinois's Keaton Wagler, and Arkansas's Darius Acuff Jr.

How do you look at his numbers and put him as a shooter in the class of Wagler or Acuff? Brown’s numbers are underwhelming for his current draft stock IMO. Add the lack of playing, I don’t think he belongs in that grouping. He is the next tier down.

[Caneman786]

How do you look at his numbers and put him as a shooter in the class of Wagler or Acuff? Brown’s numbers are underwhelming for his current draft stock IMO. Add the lack of playing, I don’t think he belongs in that grouping. He is the next tier down.

I didn't say he's a shooter in the class of Wagler and Acuff. He's above both of those guys when it comes to shooting. Without a doubt, one of the very best shooters in the entire draft class, and the best among the lottery point guards.

What I said he's in the same tier as Wagler, Acuff, and Flemings (and Flemings is probably the best one of the bunch) is when it comes to Point Guard prospects overall outlook. That's due to the other parts of their games.

College free throw percentage and three point volume are both more highly correlated to NBA three-point percentage, and overall shooting ability, than raw three-point percentage.

Mikel has range and is fearless when shooting, and he's just a better shooter overall than either Acuff or Wagler (both only around 80% free throw percentage). And when it comes to Acuff's high percentages, he picks and chooses his spots to take some of the easiest possible shots, but it's clear he prefers going inside the arc.

Lots of people have high three point percentage doing that, for example Chris Paul notably had a 47% three-point percentage on 183 attempts in his college career. Then Reed Sheppard had a 52% three point percentage in his collegiate season (on 144 attempts), but the volume was relatively low. Both of them shot around 83% to 84% from the three throw line.

Both of those guys turned out to be good shooters in the NBA, with Reed being very good. However, it shows that percentages alone can't be the end-all be-all, and are less important than the context of the percentages. The ceiling is way higher on what college three-point percentage can be, and Acuff Jr.'s 45% isn't some type of generational number that's super special. He looks more like he'll just be an average to slightly-above average three-point shooter. Wagler as well, based on his low volume and low free throw percentage.

[tontoz]

Acuff takes 5.8 3s per game, twice as many as CP3 took in college.

[SNPA]

How do you look at his numbers and put him as a shooter in the class of Wagler or Acuff? Brown’s numbers are underwhelming for his current draft stock IMO. Add the lack of playing, I don’t think he belongs in that grouping. He is the next tier down.

I didn't say he's a shooter in the class of Wagler and Acuff. He's above both of those guys when it comes to shooting. Without a doubt, one of the very best shooters in the entire draft class, and the best among the lottery point guards.

What I said he's in the same tier as Wagler, Acuff, and Flemings (and Flemings is probably the best one of the bunch) is when it comes to Point Guard prospects overall outlook. That's due to the other parts of their games.

College free throw percentage and three point volume are both more highly correlated to NBA three-point percentage, and overall shooting ability, than raw three-point percentage.

Mikel has range and is fearless when shooting, and he's just a better shooter overall than either Acuff or Wagler (both only around 80% free throw percentage). And when it comes to Acuff's high percentages, he picks and chooses his spots to take some of the easiest possible shots, but it's clear he prefers going inside the arc.

Lots of people have high three point percentage doing that, for example Chris Paul notably had a 47% three-point percentage on 183 attempts in his college career. Then Reed Sheppard had a 52% three point percentage in his collegiate season (on 144 attempts), but the volume was relatively low. Both of them shot around 83% to 84% from the three throw line.

Both of those guys turned out to be good shooters in the NBA, with Reed being very good. However, it shows that percentages alone can't be the end-all be-all, and are less important than the context of the percentages. The ceiling is way higher on what college three-point percentage can be, and Acuff Jr.'s 45% isn't some type of generational number that's super special. He looks more like he'll just be an average to slightly-above average three-point shooter. Wagler as well, based on his low volume and low free throw percentage.

So the guy with the lower true shooting number over the whole season is the better shooter. Got it.

[BlazersBroncos]

I cant help but look at him and see a chucker. Not a PG, not an elite shooter, loves to take tons and tons of shots. Doesnt really do the little things. Not a great defender. IDK, probably need to watch more but to me he looks like a bench microwave scorer.

Like - if he isnt getting 25-30% usage and a green light to shoot a ton what does Mikal Brown do to help a team win games? I am not seeing a guy that is talented enough for Top-3 usage on a good team. And if he isnt that guy, what is he?

I wouldnt be surprised if a guy like Milan Momcilovic gives a good team more meaningful minutes than Mikel Brown ever does.

[Caneman786]

Acuff takes 5.8 3s per game, twice as many as CP3 took in college.

He takes twice as many shots as CP3 in general, and plays more minutes. Their three-point attempt rate is relatively similar, as 31% of the shots Chris Paul took were threes, while 35% of the shots Acuff Jr. takes are threes. And this is twenty years later, when teams are looking for three-point shots way more. Back in 2005 when Chris Paul played, only 32% of shots across D1 college basketball were threes. Meanwhile, this season that number is 40%.

The point of bringing up this example (as well as the better example of Reed Sheppard, who had a much higher three-point attempt rate than Acuff Jr., who actually shot almost the same amount of threes as Acuff Jr. did by volume, after adjusting for minutes, and still did way better in his percentage) shows that the in college people can have ultra-high three-point percentages that don't reflect their shooting ability.

As of now, based on all the information we have, it looks more likely that Acuff Jr. will not reach the levels Chris Paul displayed as a shooter in the NBA. Both his relatively low free throw percentage and his lack of three-point shooting relative to his era point to this.

[Caneman786]

So the guy with the lower true shooting number over the whole season is the better shooter. Got it.

[Caneman786]

Not a PG

How's he not a PG?

He assuredly is an elite shooter, but I won't even try to convince you of that. I just want to understand how is he not a PG?

[tontoz]

.

The point of bringing up this example (as well as the better example of Reed Sheppard, who had a much higher three-point attempt rate that Acuff Jr., who actually shot almost the same amount of threes as Acuff Jr. did by volume, after adjusting for minutes, and still did way better in his percentage) shows that the in college people can have ultra-high three-point percentages that don't reflect their shooting ability.

.

Three pt attempt rate? Seriously? A guy can simply avoid taking 2s and improve their 3pt attempt rate, or reduce it if they attack the rim a lot. I don't think that means anything at all

Acuff has taken 202 3s so far compared to 144 for Reed. The bigger the sample size the more reliable it will be.

FYI now that Reed's minutes are going up so is his percentage from 3, 40% since Feb 1.

[Caneman786]

Three pt attempt rate? Seriously? A guy can simply avoid taking 2s and improve their 3pt attempt rate, or reduce it if they attack the rim a lot. I don't think that means anything at all

It does mean something, especially when combined with all the other information we have and what you see when you watch the game. To me I think it shows his preferred mode of attacking the defense. Acuff Jr. is way more hesitant than Reed was when it comes to taking a three. He takes them sometimes when they are open, and as a last resort. Usually he takes a few seconds to do it and is deliberate rather than having a quick trigger finger as you see with some guys. He's also being left open quite a bit. People cover Mikel Brown Jr. way more than they cover Darius Acuff Jr.

There's no doubt Acuff Jr.'s not as confident with his shot as Reed Sheppard was, because he's not as good of a shooter.

I also think it covers the Paul aspect, as Paul played in a time where general three-point attempt rates were way lower. That's why I originally brang up the point. It's likely in an offense built with today's mentality, Paul would be gunning from downtown way more than he did in his time, and probably more than Acuff Jr. (adjusted for the amount of minutes he plays and his usage percentage).

FYI now that Reed's minutes are going up so is his percentage from 3, 40% since Feb 1.

Yeah, Reed is a really good shooter.

Is Reed Sheppard a better shooter than Kon Knueppel though? Kon only had a 40.6% three-point percentage compared to Reed Sheppard's 52.1%.

[tontoz]

Kon got off to a slow start in college. I watched him a few times early and dismissed him as a top prospect because he looked so bad.

He had 1-8 and 0-8 games from 3 early in the season, then started shooting better late in the season when I wasn't watching lol.

[King Ken]

Elite traits guys generally translate at an insane rate. If this class wasn't so good, he would be a lock for top 5. But due to that, 8-10 range. Only tier 1 or 2 guy I can see him going over is Darryn and that's an extreme reach. He's definitely the tier 3 guy I have going the highest. Over Yaxel, Burries, and Quaintance. Quaintance has injury concerns, Yaxel is old and Burries has no true all star potential although he has an extremely high probability of being an elite role player.