Allen Graves

[JMAC3]

Seeing a bunch of spreadsheet socialists putting him as high as #2 on their draft boards is peak comedy to me.
The guy plays 22 mpg off the bench for Santa Clara and averages 11 ppg.

People think that is a good indicator he will be better than Dybantsa, Boozer, Wilson, Wagler etc....

All because he has a high BPM. -- it is almost to the point anytime I see a mock draft on Twitter that is color coded it is guaranteed to blind BPM garbage with little insight into players abilities.

[Chuck Everett]

Seeing a bunch of spreadsheet socialists putting him as high as #2 on their draft boards is peak comedy to me.
The guy plays 22 mpg off the bench for Santa Clara and averages 11 ppg.

People think that is a good indicator he will be better than Dybantsa, Boozer, Wilson, Wagler etc....

All because he has a high BPM. -- it is almost to the point anytime I see a mock draft on Twitter that is color coded it is guaranteed to blind BPM garbage with little insight into players abilities.

He has talent but he really needs to work on his body. The fact that he plays those minutes against primarily WCC competition lets me know that he has stamina issues. He just looks out of shape to me. Spends a lot of time on his ass.

I watched him in the WCC tourney against Pacific, St. Mary's and Gonzaga, there is something there provided he keeps developing, but the physical development is huge.

[JMAC3]

Seeing a bunch of spreadsheet socialists putting him as high as #2 on their draft boards is peak comedy to me.
The guy plays 22 mpg off the bench for Santa Clara and averages 11 ppg.

People think that is a good indicator he will be better than Dybantsa, Boozer, Wilson, Wagler etc....

All because he has a high BPM. -- it is almost to the point anytime I see a mock draft on Twitter that is color coded it is guaranteed to blind BPM garbage with little insight into players abilities.

He has talent but he really needs to work on his body. The fact that he plays those minutes against primarily WCC competition lets me know that he has stamina issues. He just looks out of shape to me. Spends a lot of time on his ass.

I watched him in the WCC tourney against Pacific, St. Mary's and Gonzaga, there is something there provided he keeps developing, but the physical development is huge.

The question is pretty simple to me... put Dybantsa on Santa Clara and Graves on BYU. Dybantsa might average 35 ppg playing that level of competition and I expect Graves role to be even further diminished along with some of his efficiency.

[ReggiesKnicks]

The reality is neither our eyes or statistics (though why are we calling them spreadsheet socialists? socialists are people who want everyone to be better, it isn't an insult, guess I am getting old) are 100% accurate, but typically statistical data is stronger in terms of assessing sports than eye test.

I don't blame people for looking at a player who has an outlier statisitcal profile, but you also need to watch them play.

Robbie Avila was a similar example where his statistical profile as a sophomore was exceptional, but you spend 1 minute watching his tape and realize he is going to be playing in Europe.

[BigGargamel]

Twitter big boards are 100% put together to drive hate traffic. Any traffic is good traffic these days. I made the mistake of responding to a couple, and now they cover my feed. Each one more ridiculous than the last. But it gets views, and that's 2026 for you.

[BigGargamel]

Robbie Avila was a similar example where his statistical profile as a sophomore was exceptional, but you spend 1 minute watching his tape and realize he is going to be playing in Europe.

I remember he was the hot thing on this board for a minute a couple years ago. Back of the basketball card looked like Jokic. Just as long as you never actually watched the guy play.

[azcatz11]

Robbie Avila was a similar example where his statistical profile as a sophomore was exceptional, but you spend 1 minute watching his tape and realize he is going to be playing in Europe.

I remember he was the hot thing on this board for a minute a couple years ago. Back of the basketball card looked like Jokic. Just as long as you never actually watched the guy play.

People just want to find the next diamond in the rough. Remember the thread about Woolley? He’s a solid role player and folks thought he was a top 10 pick after dominating D2 lol

[CptCrunch]

Seeing a bunch of spreadsheet socialists putting him as high as #2 on their draft boards is peak comedy to me.
The guy plays 22 mpg off the bench for Santa Clara and averages 11 ppg.

People think that is a good indicator he will be better than Dybantsa, Boozer, Wilson, Wagler etc....

All because he has a high BPM. -- it is almost to the point anytime I see a mock draft on Twitter that is color coded it is guaranteed to blind BPM garbage with little insight into players abilities.

Graves is #2 on my BPM list behind Boozer, #3 on my Strength-Scaled Plus Minus (SPM) behind Boozer, Wilson.

He plays on a pretty good team, #29 on my ranking system, #35 on KenPom. This level of BPM is outlier enough to warrant a real close look. I don't have him at #2 and have not studied him in detail. His wingspan is also supposedly 7 feet.



Technically he is a Sophomore.

[Caneman786]

Twitter big boards are 100% put together to drive hate traffic. Any traffic is good traffic these days. I made the mistake of responding to a couple, and now they cover my feed. Each one more ridiculous than the last. But it gets views, and that's 2026 for you.

If you have an opinion outside the mainstream it's meant to "drive hate traffic"? That's quite disrespectful.

In any case, I, too, think Graves has a great argument to be a top ten draft pick. As of right now, I'd place him there. At least from what he's done so far, he belongs in that category, or at least should be a lottery pick, in my opinion.

Freshmen, even those who redshirted, don't post BPMs of 13.0 out of nowhere. Wooley, for reference, was at +5.0 as a freshman (and also played in a mid-major conference, not "D2 ball"). Robbie Avila as well was +5.0 as a freshman and then went to +8.6 as a sophomore. Even as a senior Avila isn't at freshman Graves level.

In the Bart-Torvik database, the +13.0 BPM figure puts Graves 4th in the country, 2nd among freshmen this season, and 8th among all freshmen who have played at least 40% of their team's minutes since 2008.

There is zero precedent (since 2008) for anyone who recorded even a 12.5 BPM under the age of 21 in D1 college basketball to not be have a long career in the NBA and at some point be a high-impact starter (except arguably Michael Beasley, whose impact could be questioned, but that's its own special exception that had other unique circumstances). Here's the whole list:



Allen Graves may be the one who breaks this rule, but there's no doubt he's someone who should be respected and paid attention to as a worthy draft prospect and not as some joke.

For those who and are genuinely curious to learn more about Graves, this passage is a good starter. In short, though, his intersection of size and IQ is astounding, and he has great defensive tools, chiefly two of the best hands in basketball.

On top of this, he improved on everything since the passage's writing. Now he's at 42% from three on the season on 89 attempts. His AST:TO ratio is at 2.5 at 6' 9", 230 pounds. The TS% is at .615 on the season and .678 in conference play! He has a 5.4% Steal percentage and 4.1% Block percentage. Per 40 minutes, 3.5 steals and 1.7 blocks. He also vacuums 17.8% of possible Offensive Rebounds (getting 4.9 every 40 minutes). He's a master of the dirty work and little things, and takes pride in his defense.

And in case any of you all are interested, linked here is a one and a half-hour long interview with Allen Graves done by the guy who wrote the above article, where they go into his history, his thoughts on his strengths, weaknesses, and skills, and some of his opinions. It's a great listen and I highly recommend it.

Graves' story is unique and very fascinating, as would any completely unranked prospect be who led his local small town high school's basketball team, which had no history of team success at the state level, to win the state championship twice in a row. Graves won the Louisiana Gatorade Player of the year award in 2024. However, even with this, despite many emails he sent to recruiting sites, he remained a 0-star recruit, and didn't even have a 247 page.

Near the end of the interview, Graves states he expects to declare for the NBA draft this season, so you'll know more about him soon, whether you like it or not.

Anyway, we'll get to see him in action in March Madness this Friday against Santa Clara at 12:15 PM Eastern Time against Kentucky. Santa Clara has just made the NCAA tournament for the first time in three decades, thanks in large part to Graves' contributions.

[Caneman786]

Draft publications have started to take notice of Graves. Over the last month, he has risen from the mid 40s to spot 37 on ESPN Analytics Aggregate prospect rankings, that collect draft boards across the internet to find consensus. In January, he wasn't even in the top 200, so it's a big jump.

Added this thread to the Draft Thread Directory: Linked here

A potential draft steal if chosen in the second round.

[BigGargamel]

Robbie Avila was a similar example where his statistical profile as a sophomore was exceptional, but you spend 1 minute watching his tape and realize he is going to be playing in Europe.

I remember he was the hot thing on this board for a minute a couple years ago. Back of the basketball card looked like Jokic. Just as long as you never actually watched the guy play.

People just want to find the next diamond in the rough. Remember the thread about Woolley? He’s a solid role player and folks thought he was a top 10 pick after dominating D2 lol

To be fair, that thread was just about one guy, who predictably vanished not soon afterwards. He even gave me the ole' "do you even watch basketball bro" when I said he wasn't an NBA prospect. Every once in a while, someone on here throws all their chips behind some random guy in hopes of being right.

[BigGargamel]

Twitter big boards are 100% put together to drive hate traffic. Any traffic is good traffic these days. I made the mistake of responding to a couple, and now they cover my feed. Each one more ridiculous than the last. But it gets views, and that's 2026 for you.

If you have an opinion outside the mainstream it's meant to "drive hate traffic"? That's quite disrespectful.

In any case, I, too, think Graves has a great argument to be a top ten draft pick. As of right now, I'd place him there. At least from what he's done so far, he belongs in that category, or at least should be a lottery pick, in my opinion.

Freshmen, even those who redshirted, don't post BPMs of 13.0 out of nowhere. Wooley, for reference, was at +5.0 as a freshman (and also played in a mid-major conference, not "D2 ball"). Robbie Avila as well was +5.0 as a freshman and then went to +8.6 as a sophomore. Even as a senior Avila isn't at freshman Graves level.

In the Bart-Torvik database, the +13.0 BPM figure puts Graves 4th in the country, 2nd among freshmen this season, and 8th among all freshmen who have played at least 40% of their team's minutes since 2008.

There is zero precedent (since 2008) for anyone who recorded even a 12.5 BPM under the age of 21 in D1 college basketball to not be have a long career in the NBA and at some point be a high-impact starter (except arguably Michael Beasley, whose impact could be questioned, but that's its own special exception that had other unique circumstances). Here's the whole list:



Allen Graves may be the one who breaks this rule, but there's no doubt he's someone who should be respected and paid attention to as a worthy draft prospect and not as some joke.

For those who and are genuinely curious to learn more about Graves, this passage is a good starter. In short, though, his intersection of size and IQ is astounding, and he has great defensive tools, chiefly two of the best hands in basketball.

On top of this, he improved on everything since the passage's writing. Now he's at 42% from three on the season on 89 attempts. His AST:TO ratio is at 2.5 at 6' 9", 230 pounds. The TS% is at .615 on the season and .678 in conference play! He has a 5.4% Steal percentage and 4.1% Block percentage. Per 40 minutes, 3.5 steals and 1.7 blocks. He also vacuums 17.8% of possible Offensive Rebounds (getting 4.9 every 40 minutes). He's a master of the dirty work and little things, and takes pride in his defense.

And in case any of you all are interested, linked here is a one and a half-hour long interview with Allen Graves done by the guy who wrote the above article, where they go into his history, his thoughts on his strengths, weaknesses, and skills, and some of his opinions. It's a great listen and I highly recommend it.

Graves' story is unique and very fascinating, as would any completely unranked prospect be who led his local small town high school's basketball team, which had no history of team success at the state level, to win the state championship twice in a row. Graves won the Louisiana Gatorade Player of the year award in 2024. However, even with this, despite many emails he sent to recruiting sites, he remained a 0-star recruit, and didn't even have a 247 page.

Near the end of the interview, Graves states he expects to declare for the NBA draft this season, so you'll know more about him soon, whether you like it or not.

Anyway, we'll get to see him in action in March Madness this Friday against Santa Clara at 12:15 PM Eastern Time against Kentucky. Santa Clara has just made the NCAA tournament for the first time in three decades, thanks in large part to Graves' contributions.

No disrespect, but can I ask if all of your posts (at least most of them) are just AI copy and paste jobs? They sure give off that vibe. I am not going to debate with a robot. Be an actual human being with your own typed out thoughts, and we can talk.

If I'm wrong, or English is not your first language, I apologize. Old school message boards like this are just a dying breed, where humans interact with humans. I'd prefer to keep it that way.

[ReggiesKnicks]

Caneman, can you just stop posting AI slop every time. Every single post you make is just 100% AI.

[JMAC3]

I would be fine if people were interested in him as a top 25 guy, but the fact that people are putting him top 5 over guys like Dybantsa is funny to me. Most of the guys haven't even watched a full game of Allen Graves and yet list him #2 on their boards. Blindly ranking someone high because of spreedsheet numbers while playing weak competition.

Amari Allen is a better NBA prospect than Allen Graves.
Basically putting up the same stats but at Alabama playing a top 20 schedule instead of playing at Santa Clara

[BlazersBroncos]

He is a FRP, but I bet he returns and aims for late lotto.

There are so many small guards in this draft it actually might make sense for Graves to come out and take advantage of wing scarcity tho IMO.

Really needs to work on his body tho - looks like Jared Dudley (Who actually isnt that bad a comparison).

[Caneman786]

No disrespect, but can I ask if all of your posts (at least most of them) are just AI copy and paste jobs? They sure give off that vibe. I am not going to debate with a robot. Be an actual human being with your own typed out thoughts, and we can talk.

If I'm wrong, or English is not your first language, I apologize. Old school message boards like this are just a dying breed, where humans interact with humans. I'd prefer to keep it that way.

Caneman, can you just stop posting AI slop every time. Every single post you make is just 100% AI.

"No disrespect" well offense taken! Offense taken BigGargamel and ReggiesKnicks!

I find both of your posts very disrespectful. I have never used AI to write a single one of the posts I've made on this website. Turns out if you write clearly and confidently, without making any grammar mistakes, people who can't write as well think it's AI. Guess it's the new era of discussion, but it's a nasty way to think. And I guess an easy way to handwave away arguments.

I demand an apology for this from both of you, ReggiesKnicks and BigGargamel, and I encourage moderators to take a look at my connection history if they have that available to check if they can bring anything to clear that up. Or my edit history on my posts, which if you look at you definitely would have no way to think it's AI. ANY OF MY POSTS. Any of my long posts will have many edits. You'll see the history and see how my spelling errors and clerical mistakes are fixed. It isn't a discussion. You'll also see the logs of when I log in and log out, and when I'm active and not active! It will all add up. I assure you!

Sometimes I like to write with a neutral tone to not show any bias, especially when I'm making links to the draft thread directories or starting threads, which I don't want to be influenced by opinions at all (or at least as little as possible). I want to bring people together in those and talk about the stuff people agree on, or talking about future games, which I like to do. This thing where I link to the future game may be it sounds like AI, but I write it because I'm genuinely excited about the game, and I plan to watch it.

There isn't anything to talk about with this whole idea since it's just that disrespectful, and you have no evidence whatsoever. It's just a blatant character attack.

And I do agree with you about the message boards. Well guess what! I am one of the real humans on it, and if you EVER decide to run me off this board with your accusations, you can rest assured I'll never come back (and I did that before on a different board!) The board will have lost a valuable contributor, and I was originally planning to discuss with you all for many years going forward, because I really liked the discussion environment I found.

I'm really passionate about my discussions here which is why I enjoy spending time on this board. I read every post on every thread, and it's luckily not too much to keep up with.

But if your half-baked theory gains any traction at all among the people here, I'm gonna have to consider leaving, and this board doesn't get new members very often, so you'll have to have fun with that.

Would you like to discuss the actual arguments I brought up? I spent at least half an hour writing that post down, and making edits afterwards, extending it.

[BigGargamel]

Caneman, can you just stop posting AI slop every time. Every single post you make is just 100% AI.

I find that very disrespectful. I have never used AI to write a single one of the posts I've made on this website. Turns out if you write clearly and confidently, without making any grammar mistakes, people who can't write as well think it's AI. Guess it's the new era of discussion, but it's a nasty way to think.

I demand an apology for this from both of you, ReggiesKnicks and BigGargamel, and I encourage moderators to take a look at my connection history if they have that available to check if they can bring anything to clear that up. Or my edit history on my posts, which if you look at you definitely would have no way to think it's AI.

Sometimes I like to write with a neutral tone to not show any bias, especially when I'm making links to the draft thread directories, which I don't want to be influenced by opinions at all (or at least as little as possible).

There isn't anything to talk about with this whole idea since it's just that disrespectful, and you have no evidence whatsoever that it's AI. Because it isn't.

Would you like to discuss the actual arguments I brought up? I spent at least half an hour writing that post down, and making edits afterwards, extending it.

I apologized in advance. It's all good, my friend. Unfortunately, the future we currently live in is littered with AI slop, it's hard to tell sometimes. Your constant data dumps look like copy and past AI. If it's not, then I'm sorry.

As far as your previous post, it is definitely okay to have an opinion that differs from the norm. But...a lot of content these days, especially stuff on Twitter/Facebook/Reddit, and not actual websites, is designed as rage bait. Those generate more clicks than your usual, run of the mill, basic draft rankings. Rage bait gets the clicks, hate responses, and the more responses, the more your stuff is seen, whether it's good or not. And most of it is not.

Like, having Dybantsa ranked 15th on your big board does nothing but make people angry. There's no logical reason to have something like that. It's just a false opinion. But that is what drives comments, and that is all that matters to the algorithm.

I miss old internet.

[Caneman786]

Unfortunately, the future we currently live in is littered with AI slop, it's hard to tell sometimes. Your constant data dumps look like copy and past AI. If it's not, then I'm sorry.

Well, none of then are, I found it a little embarrassing to admit, which is why I didn't, but I do actually take all of the data in those from Bart-Torvik (not even copy-paste, I type it all by hand because it's faster, and I have a really fast typing speed). I wanted to do it again at the end of the season. I have fun doing it honestly.

The entire draft thread directory is typed out by hand as well, as is clear if you see the way it slowly built up over time, and I extended it from 15 players to 60 players, and the unique names I have for all the different threads at the bottom not for a single prospect (that I tried to make neutral). On top of this there's all the errors I constantly make and correct. Sometimes I don't make a post when I correct them, sometimes I do. I link my sources, nearly every single time. If you look closely at my previous posts you'll probably find errors right now, which I'd fix.

Just yesterday I originally had Dybantsa and Peterson the wrong way on my board compared to where it was in the source, and I quickly edited all three posts where I had it, and luckily nobody had quoted it.

I wasn't even done extending my post above when you made your reply, and you'll see it's grown from the last time you even saw it.

If any moderator sees any of my posts history, it shouldn't even have any argument. I probably am in the top 1% of those who edit my posts, as I find grammar errors or real logic errors in my thinking all the time.

There's just no question it's me who's writing all of this. And ReggiesKnicks I'm pretty sure you're a moderator so you better go and check it out!

ReggiesKnicks, if you aren't a moderator I don't care, I won't be checking in to make sure you are a moderator (as I do check for errors painstakingly in my other posts). You don't even deserve that. Unless you write down your apology and put it here.

I also will be reporting your post, since I want it "removed", "moderated", or deleted. There's no reason for anyone to be reading it.

I was gonna report your post too BigGargamel but since you apologized a little bit I'm gonna let it slide.

[BigGargamel]

It's okay man. I run a website, and I obviously do not type in every single word and code. It's just hard to tell these days, like I said. The future sucks.

I appreciate your hard work.

[ReggiesKnicks]

No disrespect, but can I ask if all of your posts (at least most of them) are just AI copy and paste jobs? They sure give off that vibe. I am not going to debate with a robot. Be an actual human being with your own typed out thoughts, and we can talk.

If I'm wrong, or English is not your first language, I apologize. Old school message boards like this are just a dying breed, where humans interact with humans. I'd prefer to keep it that way.

Caneman, can you just stop posting AI slop every time. Every single post you make is just 100% AI.

"No disrespect" well offense taken! Offense taken BigGargamel.

I find both of your posts very disrespectful. I have never used AI to write a single one of the posts I've made on this website. Turns out if you write clearly and confidently, without making any grammar mistakes, people who can't write as well think it's AI. Guess it's the new era of discussion, but it's a nasty way to think.

I demand an apology for this from both of you, ReggiesKnicks and BigGargamel, and I encourage moderators to take a look at my connection history if they have that available to check if they can bring anything to clear that up. Or my edit history on my posts, which if you look at you definitely would have no way to think it's AI. ANY OF MY POSTS. Any of my long posts will have many edits. You'll see the history and see how my spelling errors and clerical mistakes are fixed. It isn't a discussion. You'll also see the logs of when I log in and log out, and when I'm active and not active! It will all add up. I assure you!

Sometimes I like to write with a neutral tone to not show any bias, especially when I'm making links to the draft thread directories or starting threads, which I don't want to be influenced by opinions at all (or at least as little as possible). I want to bring people together in those and talk about the stuff people agree on, or talking about future games, which I like to do. This thing where I link to the future game may be it sounds like AI, but I write it because I'm genuinely excited about the game, and I plan to watch it.

There isn't anything to talk about with this whole idea since it's just that disrespectful, and you have no evidence whatsoever. It's just a blatant character attack.

And I do agree with you about the message boards. Well guess what! I am one of the real humans on it, and if you EVER decide to run me off this board with your accusations, you can rest assured I'll never come back (and I did that before!) The board will have lost a valuable contributor, and I was originally planning to discuss with you all for many years going forward, because I really liked the discussion environment I found. I'm really passionate about my discussions here which is why I enjoy spending time on this board. I read every post honestly, and it's luckily not too much to keep up with.

But if your half-baked theory gains any traction at all among the people here, I'm gonna have to consider leaving, and this board doesn't get new members very often, so you'll have to have fun with that.

Would you like to discuss the actual arguments I brought up? I spent at least half an hour writing that post down, and making edits afterwards, extending it.

This just isn't true. I've ran a few of your posts through and they all come back as either could be human or AI, or they come back leaning AI.

All good, the ignore feature is a fantastic feature I can use.