Allen Graves

[Caneman786]

This just isn't true. I've ran a few of your posts through and they all come back as either could be human or AI, or they come back leaning AI.

All good, the ignore feature is a fantastic feature I can use.

What the hell???

Those tools are absolute garbage and trash. A whole entire 20 page report I wrote for a school project a few years ago came back like that.

And anyone who has any type of experience with the tools and isn't constantly inserting their own errors (unlike me who fixes then) knows that.***

I'm gonna have this post removed too, my arguments are just unshakable when it comes to this. See my edit history, see my log in history, or be quiet and don't make your accusations! Just read my post. I know you didn't.

It's sad since I had respect for you and did enjoy reading your posts. I don't have respect anymore though.

It's okay man. I run a website, and I obviously do not type in every single word and code. It's just hard to tell these days, like I said. The future sucks.

I appreciate your hard work.

And I actually do write out everything by hand, so you should be able to see why I'm so upset! It's real insulting.

***ADDED FROM HERE: Of course, rethinking this, I realized tools probably have gotten a lot better since a few years ago. So I tested this theory with my Graves post. Top three results on Google "ai detector"





I somewhat expected this. The Graves post was even one of my most emotional posts, with a lot of energy behind it. I actually was pretty surprised that it was the post that sparked this discussion. I never even imagined it.

Would you, ReggiesKnicks, even bring the evidence of any one of my posts being marked AI by a "detector"? You wouldn't, since you ignored me. But this is for others to see.

[Caneman786]

As far as your previous post, it is definitely okay to have an opinion that differs from the norm. But...a lot of content these days, especially stuff on Twitter/Facebook/Reddit, and not actual websites, is designed as rage bait. Those generate more clicks than your usual, run of the mill, basic draft rankings. Rage bait gets the clicks, hate responses, and the more responses, the more your stuff is seen, whether it's good or not. And most of it is not.

Like, having Dybantsa ranked 15th on your big board does nothing but make people angry. There's no logical reason to have something like that. It's just a false opinion. But that is what drives comments, and that is all that matters to the algorithm.

You're just gonna have to take my word for it if you don't want to look into it, but I think I know the main people who you are talking about pushing the "AJ Dybantsa not top ten" idea, which is particularly a narrative on certain parts of Twitter.

I don't think it's fake, and it's a real opinion people have (and I don't think you should just call it a "wrong opinion", drafting isn't a science and you never know what could happen, we should not be so haughty and arrogant to assume that it's a wrong opinion).

Personally, I actually disagree with the idea, and I'd put Dybantsa at number three behind Boozer and Peterson, but there's people who genuinely believe Dybantsa shouldn't be top ten based on their scouting and here's proof. If you would like to listen, here is a two-hour long podcast (skip to 1:08:40) featuring a debate between someone "Nile" and the guy who created the "Databallr" website as they argue for and against AJ Dybantsa, with Nile having him lower in the lottery, and Databallr having him higher, I think number 2 or number 3. I listened to the podcast and found it really interesting, and I thought there were some good arguments both ways. They talk about AJ for nearly an hour.

The main host Finn Vandergriff has put his real name on this (who also seems to have Dybantsa in that late lottery / ~10 range) and to my knowledge had a connection with the No Ceilings NBA guys where he went on a podcast with them and outlined his methodology (though I didn't listen to this episode).

Based on all this, I strongly doubt this in particular is something they are rage-baiting on. You don't just do this for two hours for a podcast that makes no money to rage-bait. And there's further proof of this, as there's 42 episodes of the podcast and easily over 50 hours of content that they recorded with their real voices. Even in just the next episode they don't put Dybantsa top ten in their mock draft, which itself is nearly two hours of audio content that they recorded.

You could call them dumb if you think they are, and irrelevant, which in the grand scheme of things and in the basketball world, they are, but I think they are most likely real and not rage-baiting. You don't do more than 50 hours of podcasting just to rage-bait. And they've got a lot of "logic" behind it, it's not "no logic" at all. Even if you think the logic is wrong it's clear a lot of thought has been put into that.

You don't have to believe what I just said, it's not necessary for you, but I wanted to let you know about it just in case you were curious about it and had your mind open to being changed on this (just the idea that it's not rage-bait, not that Dybantsa shouldn't be top three)

[Caneman786]

I would be fine if people were interested in him as a top 25 guy, but the fact that people are putting him top 5 over guys like Dybantsa is funny to me. Most of the guys haven't even watched a full game of Allen Graves and yet list him #2 on their boards. Blindly ranking someone high because of spreedsheet numbers while playing weak competition.

This is an exaggeration (most of the people have him mid-lottery). I only ever saw one guy have Graves at 2 (which to be fair, he is #2 in freshman BPM!)

Also, the spreadsheet numbers, particularly BPM, adjusts for competition. Allen's BPM is only +7.1 on the season, while Graves has +13.0. That's a massive difference. And Allen is only 25 days younger than Graves.

Amari Allen is a better NBA prospect than Allen Graves.
Basically putting up the same stats but at Alabama playing a top 20 schedule instead of playing at Santa Clara

This isn't really true once you adjust for how many minutes Graves plays. Due to his high-energy style of defense, Graves picks up a lot of fouls, which is why I think his minutes are limited.

But per 40 minutes:

Allen Graves gets 21 points, 12 rebounds (5 offensive), 3 assists (1.3 turnovers), 3.5 steals, 1.7 blocks
Amari Allen gets 16 points, 10 rebounds (2 offensive), 4 assists (2.0 turnovers), 1.6 steals, 1.0 blocks

Allen Graves has a total true shooting percentage of 61.5% (and he crushes his weak conference with 68%), while Amari Allen has a true shooting percentage of 58.5%.

Doing it against competition is a fair argument, and BPM does adjust for that, but Allen Graves BPM and stats (although they somewhat drop) remains strong against high-level competition, while Amari Allen's stats as a whole drop massively! See the "top 100 teams", "top 50 teams" stats. Allen has a larger sample size, but you can't act like it's not close. Personally I'd give Graves the edge.




From Bart-Torvik

[BigGargamel]

Not having Dybantsa in your top ten to 15 is a wrong opinion. An opinion can definitely be wrong. You can say things you don't like about a player, but he's unquestionably an elite prospect. Consensus is consensus for a reason. It's not the end all, be all, and it's good to have your own opinion, but if it swings too wild;y, people stop taking you seriously. As they should. Anyone who has Dailyn Swain or Flory Bidunga over Dybantsa (both things I saw today on Twitter) is just trying too hard. And they know what they are doing. We are talking about it, aren't we? So mission accomplished.

Either say your college basketball rankings instead of an NBA draft big board. That might make more sense.

[JMAC3]

I would be fine if people were interested in him as a top 25 guy, but the fact that people are putting him top 5 over guys like Dybantsa is funny to me. Most of the guys haven't even watched a full game of Allen Graves and yet list him #2 on their boards. Blindly ranking someone high because of spreedsheet numbers while playing weak competition.

This is an exaggeration (most of the people have him mid-lottery). I only ever saw one guy have Graves at 2 (which to be fair, he is #2 in freshman BPM!)

Also, the spreadsheet numbers, particularly BPM, adjusts for competition. Allen's BPM is only +7.1 on the season, while Graves has +13.0. That's a massive difference. And Allen is only 25 days younger than Graves.

Amari Allen is a better NBA prospect than Allen Graves.
Basically putting up the same stats but at Alabama playing a top 20 schedule instead of playing at Santa Clara

This isn't really true once you adjust for how many minutes Graves plays. Due to his high-energy style of defense, Graves picks up a lot of fouls, which is why I think his minutes are limited.

But per 40 minutes:

Allen Graves gets 21 points, 12 rebounds (5 offensive), 3 assists (1.3 turnovers), 3.5 steals, 1.7 blocks
Amari Allen gets 16 points, 10 rebounds (2 offensive), 4 assists (2.0 turnovers), 1.6 steals, 1.0 blocks

Allen Graves has a total true shooting percentage of 61.5% (and he crushes his weak conference with 68%), while Amari Allen has a true shooting percentage of 58.5%.

Doing it against competition is a fair argument, and BPM does adjust for that, but Allen Graves BPM and stats (although they somewhat drop) remains strong against high-level competition, while Amari Allen's stats as a whole drop massively! See the "top 100 teams", "top 50 teams" stats. Allen has a larger sample size, but you can't act like it's not close. Personally I'd give Graves the edge.




From Bart-Torvik

We have thousands of examples every year of guys moving up from small division 1 to power 4 programs and underperforming their raw production and advanced numbers. That is what makes the transfer portal so difficult. If every Joe Smo that averaged 17 ppg at Tennessee Tech could put up the same numbers and same efficiency in the ACC then predicting performance would be a lot easier. However, the vast majority of players who transfer up in competition numbers go down.

Allen Graves steals and blocks numbers are probably significantly lower if he is playing in the Big12 than playing in the WCC vs slower, smaller and less talented players.

However, I get it people are desperate to find the next Jalen Williams so they are propping up very average production in Graves.

Do you not think Amari Allen would be more effective playing in the WCC then in the SEC? Feels like the answer is pretty obvious because again we have thousands of transfer portal examples every year of guys that can't cut it at major programs and then go to play weaker conferences and become players of the year vs that level of competition.

[azcatz11]

No disrespect, but can I ask if all of your posts (at least most of them) are just AI copy and paste jobs? They sure give off that vibe. I am not going to debate with a robot. Be an actual human being with your own typed out thoughts, and we can talk.

If I'm wrong, or English is not your first language, I apologize. Old school message boards like this are just a dying breed, where humans interact with humans. I'd prefer to keep it that way.

Caneman, can you just stop posting AI slop every time. Every single post you make is just 100% AI.

"No disrespect" well offense taken! Offense taken BigGargamel.

I find both of your posts very disrespectful. I have never used AI to write a single one of the posts I've made on this website. Turns out if you write clearly and confidently, without making any grammar mistakes, people who can't write as well think it's AI. Guess it's the new era of discussion, but it's a nasty way to think.

I demand an apology for this from both of you, ReggiesKnicks and BigGargamel, and I encourage moderators to take a look at my connection history if they have that available to check if they can bring anything to clear that up. Or my edit history on my posts, which if you look at you definitely would have no way to think it's AI. ANY OF MY POSTS. Any of my long posts will have many edits. You'll see the history and see how my spelling errors and clerical mistakes are fixed. It isn't a discussion. You'll also see the logs of when I log in and log out, and when I'm active and not active! It will all add up. I assure you!

Sometimes I like to write with a neutral tone to not show any bias, especially when I'm making links to the draft thread directories or starting threads, which I don't want to be influenced by opinions at all (or at least as little as possible). I want to bring people together in those and talk about the stuff people agree on, or talking about future games, which I like to do. This thing where I link to the future game may be it sounds like AI, but I write it because I'm genuinely excited about the game, and I plan to watch it.

There isn't anything to talk about with this whole idea since it's just that disrespectful, and you have no evidence whatsoever. It's just a blatant character attack.

And I do agree with you about the message boards. Well guess what! I am one of the real humans on it, and if you EVER decide to run me off this board with your accusations, you can rest assured I'll never come back (and I did that before!) The board will have lost a valuable contributor, and I was originally planning to discuss with you all for many years going forward, because I really liked the discussion environment I found. I'm really passionate about my discussions here which is why I enjoy spending time on this board. I read every post honestly, and it's luckily not too much to keep up with.

But if your half-baked theory gains any traction at all among the people here, I'm gonna have to consider leaving, and this board doesn't get new members very often, so you'll have to have fun with that.

Would you like to discuss the actual arguments I brought up? I spent at least half an hour writing that post down, and making edits afterwards, extending it.

This just isn't true. I've ran a few of your posts through and they all come back as either could be human or AI, or they come back leaning AI.

All good, the ignore feature is a fantastic feature I can use.

I’m just curious how this would even work…are you saying he’s a bot or just writes in AI? Why would someone write posts in AI on here? Doesn’t that defeat the point of a message board when you have your opinions?

[ReggiesKnicks]

"No disrespect" well offense taken! Offense taken BigGargamel.

I find both of your posts very disrespectful. I have never used AI to write a single one of the posts I've made on this website. Turns out if you write clearly and confidently, without making any grammar mistakes, people who can't write as well think it's AI. Guess it's the new era of discussion, but it's a nasty way to think.

I demand an apology for this from both of you, ReggiesKnicks and BigGargamel, and I encourage moderators to take a look at my connection history if they have that available to check if they can bring anything to clear that up. Or my edit history on my posts, which if you look at you definitely would have no way to think it's AI. ANY OF MY POSTS. Any of my long posts will have many edits. You'll see the history and see how my spelling errors and clerical mistakes are fixed. It isn't a discussion. You'll also see the logs of when I log in and log out, and when I'm active and not active! It will all add up. I assure you!

Sometimes I like to write with a neutral tone to not show any bias, especially when I'm making links to the draft thread directories or starting threads, which I don't want to be influenced by opinions at all (or at least as little as possible). I want to bring people together in those and talk about the stuff people agree on, or talking about future games, which I like to do. This thing where I link to the future game may be it sounds like AI, but I write it because I'm genuinely excited about the game, and I plan to watch it.

There isn't anything to talk about with this whole idea since it's just that disrespectful, and you have no evidence whatsoever. It's just a blatant character attack.

And I do agree with you about the message boards. Well guess what! I am one of the real humans on it, and if you EVER decide to run me off this board with your accusations, you can rest assured I'll never come back (and I did that before!) The board will have lost a valuable contributor, and I was originally planning to discuss with you all for many years going forward, because I really liked the discussion environment I found. I'm really passionate about my discussions here which is why I enjoy spending time on this board. I read every post honestly, and it's luckily not too much to keep up with.

But if your half-baked theory gains any traction at all among the people here, I'm gonna have to consider leaving, and this board doesn't get new members very often, so you'll have to have fun with that.

Would you like to discuss the actual arguments I brought up? I spent at least half an hour writing that post down, and making edits afterwards, extending it.

This just isn't true. I've ran a few of your posts through and they all come back as either could be human or AI, or they come back leaning AI.

All good, the ignore feature is a fantastic feature I can use.

I’m just curious how this would even work…are you saying he’s a bot or just writes in AI? Why would someone write posts in AI on here? Doesn’t that defeat the point of a message board when you have your opinions?

They have emotion, they aren't a bot. A lot of their posts have a lot of AI and aren't something a human would type.

[Caneman786]

Allen Graves' freshman collegiate season ends in an overtime loss during the first round of the NCAA tournament (round of 64).

In one of the most electric games of the season, the 11 Seed Santa Clara Broncos fell 84-89 to the 7 seed Kentucky Wildcats.

In the first half of the game, but he got two quick fouls, prompting the coach to pull him in just three minutes. He bet on himself to not foul and got back in the game, but committed another foul in the first half in just three more minutes, and was done for the half. He did make a few plays during this time and was +6 on the floor in a half where Santa Clara only led by 2.

In the second half, Graves made a few more good defensive plays and was aggressive, getting fouled, but he was struggling from the field, having gone 2/8. Then with 5 minutes left he started to take over. Santa Clara was down 66-67 and he scored the teams next 7 points. Graves made a layup, got a putback, and scored a pick-and-pop three with 2 seconds left that almost won the game, putting Santa Clara up 73-70. Santa Clara took its foot off the gas then, prematurely celebrating (and the referees missed Sendek motioning for a timeout). This allowed Otega Oweh (who himself was having a game) to make a 32-foot bomb at the buzzer, pushing the game to overtime.

Overall, Graves ended the game with 17 points (4 / 9 from 2-point range, 1 / 3 from 3-point range, and 6/6 free throws), 7 rebounds (4 offensive rebounds), 1 assist (0 turnovers), 0 steals, 1 block, and 3 personal fouls.

The Broncos fizzled out to lose the game, and Graves season, and maybe collegiate career, is over. Personally, I can't wait to see him in action in the league soon.

[2weekswithpay]

Graves plays almost all his minutes at the 5. Just looking at him, I don't believe he's a 5 in the NBA. He hasn't played much at the 4, but when he has, his numbers aren't as good. Maybe this isn't a big deal, but it's worth noting.

Spoiler:

[Caneman786]

Graves plays almost all his minutes at the 5. Just looking at him, I don't believe he's a 5 in the NBA. He hasn't played much at the 4, but when he has, his numbers aren't as good. Maybe this isn't a big deal, but it's worth noting.

Spoiler:

Interestingly he stated on his podcast appearance that his whole redshirt year he was looking forward to playing the 4, specifically training for that spot, and then a player (I believe Chris Tadjo?) got injured and it shunted him to the 5, which he did not believe himself to be. He also purposefully added some weight to play that spot.

[Caneman786]

Allen Graves ended the season having played in all 35 of his team's games (although he left one game early with an ankle injury and only played 4 minutes in that game).

He averaged 22.6 minutes a game this season, and only started 4 games (while he came off the bench 31 times).

He averaged 11.8 points, 6.5 rebounds (2.8 offensive), 1.8 assists (0.7 turnovers), 1.9 steals, 0.9 blocks, and 3.1 personal fouls a game.

He made 56.0% of his two-point shots, 41.3% of his three-point shots, and 75.0% of his free throws. His three point attempt rate was .325 (D1 average .40),and his free throw rate was .396 (D1 average .35).

This meant his true shooting percentage was 61.3% on the season (significantly above the D1 average of 55.5%). In conference play he showed his levels against his weak conference (although the WCC is one of the three strongest mid majors), posting 67.8% true shooting in conference games.

The Santa Clara Broncos finish the season having gone 26-9. Unequivocally the best season the Broncos had in the last three decades.

[CptCrunch]

This guy gives me fat freshman vibes.

Assuming he measures out at 7 feet wingspan, we can just ignore his stats and draft as-is. Kinda fat, advanced stat padder with elite size.

Reminds me of Anthony Black. Drafted as a fat underdeveloped guard with size. Ending up as a very good player his third year.

[Caneman786]

Allen Graves declares for the NBA draft (via Instagram)

[CptCrunch]

Can I point out that Graves has shot one mid range shot this whole season?

He is min-maxing Moreyball. 3 and restricted area shots only. His elite efficiency is a function of his insane dedication to not taking bad shots.



His rate stats are also on par with the 3 PF who will be above him. He has better signals at STL, BLK than the cohort. His role in college was a 3 and defense PF.



He is a wing shooter, not a corner shooter from 3, which indicates he doesn't stand in corner much during games.



I have such good data that I can tell you his only mid range shot this season occured on Feb 7th at 22ft against Washington State

[JMAC3]

He should declare, because if he stays in college but transfers up to Big10 or SEC and his numbers aren't great he may never get drafted because his stats at Santa Clara could very well be fraudulent.

[THEJOHN_IV]

Heard a rumor that he could go to duke if he doesn't end up going to the draft. I would love that and he would definitely get a bigger spotlight

[Caneman786]

his stats at Santa Clara could very well be fraudulent.

Would the fact that Graves has the second-highest BPM among freshmen (in a higher sample than Caleb Wilson, and at the same age as Caleb) against top 50 teams only change your mind in any way?

Filter: Only freshmen who played at least 5 games against top 50 teams and 40% of their team's minutes (for the season).

[Bad Bart]

He should declare, because if he stays in college but transfers up to Big10 or SEC and his numbers aren't great he may never get drafted because his stats at Santa Clara could very well be fraudulent.

Podz and JDub's stats seem to have translated well coming out of Santa Clara. The WCC has produced a number of pros, with Gonzaga being a national powerhouse and St. Mary's fielding some really good teams fairly recently.

[JMAC3]

He should declare, because if he stays in college but transfers up to Big10 or SEC and his numbers aren't great he may never get drafted because his stats at Santa Clara could very well be fraudulent.

Podz and JDub's stats seem to have translated well coming out of Santa Clara. The WCC has produced a number of pros, with Gonzaga being a national powerhouse and St. Mary's fielding some really good teams fairly recently.

They were just more important players for their teams and more productive. Allen Graves entire case to be drafted highly is based on smaller sample size of minutes, off the bench and putting up less numbers.

Podz 1150 mins, 19.9 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 3.7 apg
JDub 1150 mins, 18 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 4.4 apg
Graves 791 mins, 11.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.8 apg

I just prefer to trust the raw numbers at the weaker competition levels instead of falling in love with analytic profiles. Graves was 3rd option, not the first option like other two.

Graves isn't a shot creator at all, 100% of his threes are assisted. 54% of his at the rim is assisted.

JDub only 71% of his threes were assisted, only 35.5% at rim were assisted.
Pods was 57.5% of his threes were assisted, only 26.7 of his at rim were assisted.

[Caneman786]

They were just more important players for their teams and more productive. Allen Graves entire case to be drafted highly is based on smaller sample size of minutes, off the bench and putting up less numbers.

Podz 1150 mins, 19.9 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 3.7 apg
JDub 1150 mins, 18 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 4.4 apg
Graves 791 mins, 11.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.8 apg

I just prefer to trust the raw numbers at the weaker competition levels instead of falling in love with analytic profiles. Graves was 3rd option, not the first option like other two.

Using total minutes played instead of minutes per game shouldn't be done here, it's a little misleading.
Graves had plenty of production in his minutes.

Per 40 minutes:

22.1 PTS on 60.2% TS, 9.7 TRB (2.0 ORB), 4.1 AST / 2.5 TOV, 2.0 STL, 0.5 BLK - 20 years, 3 months old Brandin Podziemski
20.7 PTS on 60.1% TS, 5.1 TRB, (0.7 ORB) 4.8 AST / 2.4 TOV, 1.4 STL, 0.6 BLK - 21 years, 2 months old Jalen Williams
20.8 PTS on 61.3% TS, 11.5 TRB (5.0 ORB), 3.2 AST / 1.3 TOV, 3.4 STL, 1.7 BLK - 19 years, 10 months old Allen Graves*

*Ages from draft day following the college season.

791 minutes should be enough to establish that it's a pattern that he produces these box score stats at a high level. This isn't 100 or 200 minutes that it could just be a fluke due to small sample size.

In fact, 791 minutes is the majority of his team's minutes (he played 56% of the team's minutes). Then, in these minutes, he still was first-team All-WCC (just like Jalen Williams), so he was recognized for being important to the team. He also played with significantly better teammates than either Podziemski or Williams had.