2026 First Round Pick Armageddon

gesa2 · Post #61 » by **gesa2** » Tue Mar 24, 2026 10:16 am

How the Lottery Process Works
Participants: The 14 teams that do not qualify for the playoffs (including those that lose in the play-in tournament) are eligible.
Odds Allocation: The teams with the worst records have the highest odds of winning, intended to deter tanking by flattening the odds. The bottom three teams each hold a 14% chance of getting the top pick.
The Drawing: 14 ping-pong balls (numbered 1–14) are placed in a machine and shuffled. Four balls are drawn to create a unique 4-digit combination (1,001 total combinations exist, with 1,000 assigned to teams).
Top Four Focus: The drawing is repeated four times to determine the first, second, third, and fourth picks. If a team is drawn again, the result is discarded, and a new draw occurs.
Remaining Order: After the top four picks are determined, the remaining teams (5–14) are slotted in reverse order of their regular-season record.

So the bottom 3 teams all have the same chances at a pick 1-4. If Indy fails to get a top 4 pick they lose their pick to LA. There’s zero incentive for them to tank past the third worst pick

Benjammin · Post #62 » by **Benjammin** » Tue Mar 24, 2026 12:10 pm

The Pacers play the Clippers who ironically have some incentive to tank that game to try to get the Pacers to the fourth position.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

Post #63 » by **nate33** » Tue Mar 24, 2026 1:19 pm

gesa2 wrote:How the Lottery Process Works
Participants: The 14 teams that do not qualify for the playoffs (including those that lose in the play-in tournament) are eligible.
Odds Allocation: The teams with the worst records have the highest odds of winning, intended to deter tanking by flattening the odds. The bottom three teams each hold a 14% chance of getting the top pick.
The Drawing: 14 ping-pong balls (numbered 1–14) are placed in a machine and shuffled. Four balls are drawn to create a unique 4-digit combination (1,001 total combinations exist, with 1,000 assigned to teams).
Top Four Focus: The drawing is repeated four times to determine the first, second, third, and fourth picks. If a team is drawn again, the result is discarded, and a new draw occurs.
Remaining Order: After the top four picks are determined, the remaining teams (5–14) are slotted in reverse order of their regular-season record.

So the bottom 3 teams all have the same chances at a pick 1-4. If Indy fails to get a top 4 pick they lose their pick to LA. There’s zero incentive for them to tank past the third worst pick

This is a really good point that I hadn't considered. You are right. From Indiana's perspective, there is absolutely no difference whatsoever between finishing last place and 3rd-to-last place. Indeed, it's probably a little better for them psychologically to finish 3rd-to-last, so at least if they miss out on a top 4 pick, they'll probably end up sending LA the 6th or 7th pick rather than the 5th pick.

And with Sacramento opening up so much space between last place and 4th-to-last, Indy should really be open-minded about trying to win a few games now. Indy is 3 games behind Sacramento with only 10 games to go in the season.

SUPERBALLMAN · Post #64 » by **SUPERBALLMAN** » Tue Mar 24, 2026 1:33 pm

Watch on YouTube

Post #65 » by **nate33** » Mon Mar 30, 2026 12:10 am

There's a tankoff match tonight between Brooklyn and Sacramento. Brooklyn is winning by 20 halfway through the 4th.

I'm not sure who to root for. A Brooklyn win gives them one more win than us, putting us in possession to finish alongside Indy in the bottom 2. But a Sacramento win gives them 3 more wins than us, virtually guaranteeing that we don't finish outside of the bottom 3 and maximizing our odds of a top 4 pick.

Jay81 · Post #66 » by **Jay81** » Mon Mar 30, 2026 3:19 am

nate33 wrote:There's a tankoff match tonight between Brooklyn and Sacramento. Brooklyn is winning by 20 halfway through the 4th.

I'm not sure who to root for. A Brooklyn win gives them one more win than us, putting us in possession to finish alongside Indy in the bottom 2. But a Sacramento win gives them 3 more wins than us, virtually guaranteeing that we don't finish outside of the bottom 3 and maximizing our odds of a top 4 pick.

Sacramento no chance on a back to back

Northwest Roddy · Post #67 » by **Northwest Roddy** » Mon Mar 30, 2026 4:32 am

Our NBA finals is the Nets game.

Tyrone Messby · Post #68 » by **Tyrone Messby** » Mon Mar 30, 2026 1:39 pm

Only 8 more games of cheering for us to lose. And then we are on the path to being good and cheering real progress!

queridiculo · Post #69 » by **queridiculo** » Mon Mar 30, 2026 2:29 pm

Tyrone Messby wrote:Only 8 more games of cheering for us to lose. And then we are on the path to being good and cheering real progress!

Severn Hoos · Post #70 » by **Severn Hoos** » Mon Mar 30, 2026 3:39 pm

We're almost in the clear, but the true Armageddon looks like this:

Wiz win a handful of meaningless games in the last two weeks of the season and end up tying the Jazz for 4th-worst record. Then, lose a coin flip to be slotted 5th pre-lotto. PHX flames out of the play-in and winds up in the Lottery. Watch the slots unfold in the Lottery broadcast and see PHX not announced in their slot, meaning they've jumped into the top 4. Which means that the Wiz will get to swap picks even if they get jobbed by the Lottery. But in the end, 4 teams leapfrog the Wiz, dropping them to 9 and conveying the pick to the Knicks. And PHX gets the #1 overall.

Which means that the bottom line is not just that the Wiz get screwed, not just that they can't take advantage of the pick swap, not just that they lose their 1st rounder entirely, but that is was that very pick - the PHX one that should have been theirs - that was the difference to bounce them out of the pick altogether. It's a script that would make the Greek tragedians proud.

I know that will haunt your drams for the next two weeks, but if you come to terms with that as a possibility, anything else will feel like relief.

Benjammin · Post #71 » by **Benjammin** » Mon Mar 30, 2026 3:43 pm

^^^Cruel and unusual punishment for anyone except for fans of the Wizards.

doclinkin · Post #72 » by **doclinkin** » Mon Mar 30, 2026 3:48 pm

Cruel and usual for us.

Severn Hoos · Post #73 » by **Severn Hoos** » Mon Mar 30, 2026 3:49 pm

Benjammin wrote:^^^Cruel and unusual punishment for anyone except for fans of the Wizards.

Exactly. For us, we call that Wednesday. #sowizards

TheBlackCzar · Post #74 » by **TheBlackCzar** » Mon Mar 30, 2026 4:04 pm

Severn Hoos wrote:We're almost in the clear, but the true Armageddon looks like this:

Wiz win a handful of meaningless games in the last two weeks of the season and end up tying the Jazz for 4th-worst record. Then, lose a coin flip to be slotted 5th pre-lotto. PHX flames out of the play-in and winds up in the Lottery. Watch the slots unfold in the Lottery broadcast and see PHX not announced in their slot, meaning they've jumped into the top 4. Which means that the Wiz will get to swap picks even if they get jobbed by the Lottery. But in the end, 4 teams leapfrog the Wiz, dropping them to 9 and conveying the pick to the Knicks. And PHX gets the #1 overall.

Which means that the bottom line is not just that the Wiz get screwed, not just that they can't take advantage of the pick swap, not just that they lose their 1st rounder entirely, but that is was that very pick - the PHX one that should have been theirs - that was the difference to bounce them out of the pick altogether. It's a script that would make the Greek tragedians proud.

I know that will haunt your drams for the next two weeks, but if you come to terms with that as a possibility, anything else will feel like relief.

Damn man, this is a cruel ass post.......

It's only Monday......
LLS......

Benjammin · Post #75 » by **Benjammin** » Mon Mar 30, 2026 4:17 pm

^And the worst thing is Severn Hoos came out of his crypt to post this. Seriously, it's great to see a post from him, even this one.

Severn Hoos · Post #76 » by **Severn Hoos** » Mon Mar 30, 2026 4:29 pm

Benjammin wrote:^And the worst thing is Severn Hoos came out of his crypt to post this. Seriously, it's great to see a post from him, even this one.

Thanks, Ben - and just to let you know I'm doing fine, I've included a current photo. Hope you're doing well also! :lol:

closg00 · Post #77 » by **closg00** » Tue Mar 31, 2026 1:07 am

An Armageddon trade-back scenario by SI.
https://www.si.com/nba/pacers/onsi/news/2026-nba-mock-draft-pacers-eye-franchise-star-as-final-four-heads-to-indianapolis-01kmtcjxx1my

gesa2 · Post #78 » by **gesa2** » Tue Mar 31, 2026 1:35 am

closg00 wrote:An Armageddon trade-back scenario by SI.
https://www.si.com/nba/pacers/onsi/news/2026-nba-mock-draft-pacers-eye-franchise-star-as-final-four-heads-to-indianapolis-01kmtcjxx1my

I’d take that trade, especially with the flattened lottery odds that are likely in future drafts

WallToWall · Post #79 » by **WallToWall** » Tue Mar 31, 2026 4:13 am

I mean this as a serious question.... what should we do if we don't land a top 2 pick? I see AJ and Peterson as near locks to be stars in the league. I can't say the same for anyone else. Of course, we will always be surprised by someone who rises to the challenge, but for being near locks, I only see these two. So, what do we do if we don't get that marquee player?

doclinkin · Post #80 » by **doclinkin** » Tue Mar 31, 2026 4:58 am

WallToWall wrote:I mean this as a serious question.... what should we do if we don't land a top 2 pick? I see AJ and Peterson as near locks to be stars in the league. I can't say the same for anyone else. Of course, we will always be surprised by someone who rises to the challenge, but for being near locks, I only see these two. So, what do we do if we don't get that marquee player?

Rather than snark and point out there’s a whole draft thread answering the question, I’ll take seriously the heart of what you mean.

Odds are we don’t land 1 or 2. We only have a 28% chance of that at best. Unless PHX slips into the lotto. So without the top guy what’s the blueprint.

Take Best Player Available. And then what. I think the plan is the same. Just better. Develop youth. Play good veterans. This time not just teaching professional habits but also how to win. Next to them develop a total team game. While we hope to grow our own star or select one.

With a player 3-8 in this draft we still add a significant talent.

Caleb Wilson is a high energy forward. Rebounding. Slam dunking. Face up game. Defensive game changing potential. He needs seasoning and coaching. But adds a power game we don’t have otherwise.

Boozer gives us the rebounding we need, low post game and smarts. and pairs him with one of two shot blockers to shore up his sole weakness.

Yaxel is the complete two way player in the front court. Zero flaws to his game. A floor raiser. He’s the guy I want. Transforms a collection of players into a team.

Mikel Brown is probably the most purely talented guard over those left. Biggest upside. I’d bet Dawkins leans this way. Figuring he’d grow into that star player. Displacing Bub to a bench role. Making Trae tradable over time.

Wagler shows a surprising skill set as a lanky lead guard. Pure scoring despite a skinny frame. You don’t go wrong picking the primary guard on the winning tourney team.

Acuff adds a go to scorer who has the attack gene you need on a winning squad.

But maybe none of them helps us win our way up the playoff rankings.

Thats cool. The flattened lotto odds now start to benefit us. We have picks and swaps in 28, 29, 30. And if they are using a 2 year record we have an advantage even if Trae and AD play will together. We have losing year in the books. To eat. A high draft pick even if we win a few games.

Plus we still have extra 2nds. Which become more valuable when the NIL seniors start to graduate. Upperclassmen tend to be drafted late. But need less seasoning.

Difference is we can now afford to pick players that are already good. And build with them.