Acuff vs Fleming vs Brown vs Philon

[greg4012]

Philon plays like a rich man's Brandon Jennings

Yeah I don’t like how slight his frame is. Just don’t trust he can be a starter. Feels more 6th man.

Do you see physical weakness in his play on the floor?

[Upperclass]

Nice model. Do you have data on past players and how this has correlated with NBA success?

College numbers dont correlate to league success. Watch the player and how they actually play. It will tell you everything you need to know.

Are you saying you have done a statistical analysis and found the correlation between college stats and NBA success to have a corelation co-efficient of 0.0?

Are you saying this is just your opinion?

Most freshman who get drafted highly are productive and produce a strong statistical profile in college. Statistics are correlated to goodness at basketball in both the NCAA and NBA, so it is weird to me, and doubtful, frankly, that there is no correlation between college stats and NBA success.

I am under the belief that 3 things have a positive correlation:

1) Age
2) College Production
3) NBA Success

Your process is your own but its an unreliable narrator. What did Derrick Williams average in college? Jimmer? Anthony Bennett, Cody Zeller, Trey Burke? Nik Stauskas? Zach Lavine? Lonzo Ball? Jahlil Okafor, Frank Kaminsky? Devin Booker? Josh Jackson? Bam? Donovan Mitchell? OG Anunoby? Johnny Davis? How has Mark Williams played in the league vs Duke?

[ReggiesKnicks]

College numbers dont correlate to league success. Watch the player and how they actually play. It will tell you everything you need to know.

Are you saying you have done a statistical analysis and found the correlation between college stats and NBA success to have a corelation co-efficient of 0.0?

Are you saying this is just your opinion?

Most freshman who get drafted highly are productive and produce a strong statistical profile in college. Statistics are correlated to goodness at basketball in both the NCAA and NBA, so it is weird to me, and doubtful, frankly, that there is no correlation between college stats and NBA success.

I am under the belief that 3 things have a positive correlation:

1) Age
2) College Production
3) NBA Success

Your process is your own but its an unreliable narrator. What did Derrick Williams average in college? Jimmer? Anthony Bennett, Cody Zeller, Trey Burke? Nik Stauskas? Zach Lavine? Lonzo Ball? Jahlil Okafor, Frank Kaminsky? Devin Booker? Josh Jackson? Bam? Donovan Mitchell? OG Anunoby? Johnny Davis? How has Mark Williams played in the league vs Duke?

You are ignoring a massive part of context, and the most important part.

Age!

Why are you ignoring age?

[The-Power]

If that were the case, then I suppose you have never been wrong about a prospect?

Perhaps? Players dont workout for various reasons.. However, i trust my ability to understand player skillsets and tendencies. If you would like a brief overview on the accuracy of these evaluations based on prior assessment.. just ask.

Sure. Where did you stand on the Victor Wembanyama vs. Scoot Henderson debate? Seriously though, I can appreciate a degree of confidence but this seems a lot more like hubris to me. But hey, to each their own.

[The-Power]

Your process is your own but its an unreliable narrator. What did Derrick Williams average in college? Jimmer? Anthony Bennett, Cody Zeller, Trey Burke? Nik Stauskas? Zach Lavine? Lonzo Ball? Jahlil Okafor, Frank Kaminsky? Devin Booker? Josh Jackson? Bam? Donovan Mitchell? OG Anunoby? Johnny Davis? How has Mark Williams played in the league vs Duke?

You are ignoring a massive part of context, and the most important part.

Age!

Why are you ignoring age?

Besides, there's a monumental gap between no correlation and perfect correlation. Nobody is saying that there is perfect correlation between college production and NBA success. One person, however, seems to believe that there is no correlation. And that's quite the statement that would need to be backed up by a lot more than individual examples (since nobody here has denied that those undoubtedly exist).

[ReggiesKnicks]

Your process is your own but its an unreliable narrator. What did Derrick Williams average in college? Jimmer? Anthony Bennett, Cody Zeller, Trey Burke? Nik Stauskas? Zach Lavine? Lonzo Ball? Jahlil Okafor, Frank Kaminsky? Devin Booker? Josh Jackson? Bam? Donovan Mitchell? OG Anunoby? Johnny Davis? How has Mark Williams played in the league vs Duke?

You are ignoring a massive part of context, and the most important part.

Age!

Why are you ignoring age?

Besides, there's a monumental gap between no correlation and perfect correlation. Nobody is saying that there is perfect correlation between college production and NBA success. One person, however, seems to believe that there is no correlation. And that's quite the statement that would need to be backed up by a lot more than individual examples (since nobody here has denied that those undoubtedly exist).

Yeah, it also doesn't make sense.

I posted in the other thread about all the Freshman who received AP All-American 1st Team honors. It is an exceptional list. Even expanding it to the 2nd team includes a lot of great NBA players, far more good NBA players than bad ones.

That's a small sample size, ~20 players, but the correlation is incredibly strong there. A 20-30 player sample size is enough to start to draw conclusions with 90% and 95% confidence.

[Upperclass]

If that were the case, then I suppose you have never been wrong about a prospect?

Perhaps? Players dont workout for various reasons.. However, i trust my ability to understand player skillsets and tendencies. If you would like a brief overview on the accuracy of these evaluations based on prior assessment.. just ask.

Sure. Where did you stand on the Victor Wembanyama vs. Scoot Henderson debate? Seriously though, I can appreciate a degree of confidence but this seems a lot more like hubris to me. But hey, to each their own.

I didnt have a barometer on Wemby or Scoot beyond youtube clips. Feel free to ask where I stood on Kon Knueppel? Luka? Tatum? Lonzo? Lamelo at age 14, Josh Jackson, Jordan Poole, Joe Harris pre-injury, Chet, Giddey..Ryan Rollins.. Regardless, my analysis isnt infallible.. I said I trust my perspective on players. I never said anyone else's is wrong. In fact I think you are one of the more accurate posters on this sub in particular.

[The-Power]

I didnt have a barometer on Wemby or Scoot beyond youtube clips. Feel free to ask where I stood on Kon Knueppel? Luka? Tatum? Lonzo? Lamelo at age 14, Josh Jackson, Jordan Poole, Joe Harris pre-injury, Chet, Giddey..Ryan Rollins.. Regardless, my analysis isnt infallible.. I said I trust my perspective on players. I never said anyone else's is wrong. In fact I think you are one of the more accurate posters on this sub in particular.

I'm sure you had your hits (I remember Kon in particular as that was very recent and you were spot on) and misses (here I want to say I remember Cade being one). And that's completely normal. If your stance simply is “I have my approach which is fallible but I personally prefer it over alternative approaches” then I'm completely on board, that's great! To me it sounded as though you are dismissive of different approaches and think projecting players is very easy when when one knows what to look for – thus my response. If that's not the case then there's no need to continue harping on this.

I don't even think I'm one of the more accurate posters. I have had a ton of misses, though I like to think I'm learning a bit more every year in order to avoid mistakes of the past. I'm also very careful about my assessments and projections in the sense that I'm always entertaining the idea that I'm wrong. I guess that's why I'm quick to respond when I sense hubris or overconfidence in the posts of others. Now that you've clarified your stance, I'm happy to move on and get back to the draft prospects.

[Upperclass]

I didnt have a barometer on Wemby or Scoot beyond youtube clips. Feel free to ask where I stood on Kon Knueppel? Luka? Tatum? Lonzo? Lamelo at age 14, Josh Jackson, Jordan Poole, Joe Harris pre-injury, Chet, Giddey..Ryan Rollins.. Regardless, my analysis isnt infallible.. I said I trust my perspective on players. I never said anyone else's is wrong. In fact I think you are one of the more accurate posters on this sub in particular.

I'm sure you had your hits (I remember Kon in particular as that was very recent and you were spot on) and misses (here I want to say I remember Cade being one). And that's completely normal. If your stance simply is “I have my approach which is fallible but I personally prefer it over alternative approaches” then I'm completely on board, that's great! To me it sounded as though you are dismissive of different approaches and think projecting players is very easy when when one knows what to look for – thus my response. If that's not the case then there's no need to continue harping on this.

I don't even think I'm one of the more accurate posters. I have had a ton of misses, though I like to think I'm learning a bit more every year in order to avoid mistakes of the past. I'm also very careful about my assessments and projections in the sense that I'm always entertaining the idea that I'm wrong. I guess that's why I'm quick to respond when I sense hubris or overconfidence in the posts of others. Now that you've clarified your stance, I'm happy to move on and get back to the draft prospects.

Perhaps, but i recall you were one of the posters who also stressed objectivity on the Luka assessment when alot of people thought he was too slow/unathletic.

And yes agreed!

[Chi town]

Philon plays like a rich man's Brandon Jennings

Yeah I don’t like how slight his frame is. Just don’t trust he can be a starter. Feels more 6th man.

Do you see physical weakness in his play on the floor?

He’s good at the slo mo game in the lane so it kind of hides his lack of strength and size.

I think he will be abused on D and bullied. Don’t think he has the frame to add enough muscle to be neutral there either.

[Upperclass]

If that were the case, then I suppose you have never been wrong about a prospect?

Perhaps? Players dont workout for various reasons.. However, i trust my ability to understand player skillsets and tendencies. If you would like a brief overview on the accuracy of these evaluations based on prior assessment.. just ask.

Sure. Where did you stand on the Victor Wembanyama vs. Scoot Henderson debate? Seriously though, I can appreciate a degree of confidence but this seems a lot more like hubris to me. But hey, to each their own.

Looks like I wasnt wrong.. just early

[Dan Z]

I think Brown has the highest upside of the bunch and is the guy I would roll the dice on. Acuff's defense is atrocious, I don't see how a team is going to be able to keep him on the floor during crunch time or the playoffs.

Yeah I just don't know if I am all that convinced any of these small guards are going to be able to defend. Fleming has good steal numbers playing on a defense focused squad but not sure I see him as some great defender at 190 lbs soaking wet.

Brown and Philon defense is pretty similar to Acuff. Philon defense was better last year with less of an offensive load but as his usage went up this year his defensive impact went down. So someone like Acuff who carries Arkansas offense right now bad defense is pretty much what I would suspect.

NBA wise so much of the defense I think will matter on the role they are put in day 1.

Is 190lbs bad? A quick search says that Tre Jones weighs 180lbs, Dennis Schroder 175lbs, Jalen Brunson 190lbs and Immanuel Quickley 190lbs.

[EMG518]

Can I just take Burries

[BostoNZ]

.

Is 190lbs bad? A quick search says that Tre Jones weighs 180lbs, Dennis Schroder 175lbs, Jalen Brunson 190lbs and Immanuel Quickley 190lbs.

190lbs is just Jalen Brunson's head dude

[Chi town]

I’ve watched a lot more tape.

Acuff and Flemings are the only real PG’s.

Brown Philon Wagler lead guards. Wagler won’t be able to defend 1s. Not nearly quick enough. Brown and Philon have enough size and strength to defend 1s and most 2s.

Mikel is electric. Can see him getting even more explosive as his frame fills out. Has that crazy confidence gene too that will have to be cultivated and coached up. That 3 ball is going to play on and off ball.

See a lot of Maxey with Philon. His sooo talented def shows a stronger frame. He won’t get bullied nearly as much as I thought. If he can add even more muscle which I think he can I think he could be a really good guard and top out as a 1b. Mot likely a solid 2nd option though. He’s fit good with a team like my Bulls that have a big PG like Giddey that can’t defend 1s and can play on and off ball.

[JMAC3]

I think Brown has the highest upside of the bunch and is the guy I would roll the dice on. Acuff's defense is atrocious, I don't see how a team is going to be able to keep him on the floor during crunch time or the playoffs.

Yeah I just don't know if I am all that convinced any of these small guards are going to be able to defend. Fleming has good steal numbers playing on a defense focused squad but not sure I see him as some great defender at 190 lbs soaking wet.

Brown and Philon defense is pretty similar to Acuff. Philon defense was better last year with less of an offensive load but as his usage went up this year his defensive impact went down. So someone like Acuff who carries Arkansas offense right now bad defense is pretty much what I would suspect.

NBA wise so much of the defense I think will matter on the role they are put in day 1.

Is 190lbs bad? A quick search says that Tre Jones weighs 180lbs, Dennis Schroder 175lbs, Jalen Brunson 190lbs and Immanuel Quickley 190lbs.

He is going to weigh less than that at the combine, he is probably closer to 180 lbs if he is lucky.

[CP War Hawks]

I’ve watched a lot more tape.

Acuff and Flemings are the only real PG’s.

Brown Philon Wagler lead guards. Wagler won’t be able to defend 1s. Not nearly quick enough. Brown and Philon have enough size and strength to defend 1s and most 2s.

Mikel is electric. Can see him getting even more explosive as his frame fills out. Has that crazy confidence gene too that will have to be cultivated and coached up. That 3 ball is going to play on and off ball.

See a lot of Maxey with Philon. His sooo talented def shows a stronger frame. He won’t get bullied nearly as much as I thought. If he can add even more muscle which I think he can I think he could be a really good guard and top out as a 1b. Mot likely a solid 2nd option though. He’s fit good with a team like my Bulls that have a big PG like Giddey that can’t defend 1s and can play on and off ball.

Philon has nearly the same build as Jamal Crawford, I think he's best suited as top 6th man. If his body can sustain significant weight that changes the calculus but more weight means less athleticism.

[TB]

Flemings game aesthetically reminds me so much of Monta Ellis. They move the same and have similar shooting mechanics too.

There was a time that the Warriors were going to build around Monta the PG, but instead of developing his handle and game management he went more the path of trying to be Kobe. Flemings to me is/can be the PG version of Monta Warriors fans were hoping for.

[Chuck Everett]

Labaron Philon, Christian Anderson and Bennett Stirtz. 10 year pros.

[King Ken]

Tier 2
Wagler
Flemings
Acuff
Tier 3
Brown Jr.

That said, Brown Jr has the highest ceiling and elite traits.