2026 NBA Playoffs - West First Round - #3 Denver Nuggets vs #6 Minnesota Timberwolves (Series tied 1-1)

[moss_is_1]

And I said nothing about Ant. What’s wrong with asking questions about who will guard AG and CB? I also think through stretches in this series you will see Gobert on CB in stretches. Have Randle on Jokic. If that happens I am curious who will take on AG and Cam. Those two will be X factors for Denver

I think the Wolves would welcome Denver having their offense flow through AG and CB, instead of Jokic/Murray.

[SpurNani]

I think this will be the opposite of the last series these teams played in 24 where it went 7 but every game seemed to be a blowout.

I think we will see a much more competitive series from a game to game basis, but ultimately I wouldn't be surprised to see Denver win it in 5. Murray and Jokic is just too good of a combination late in games and they are surrounded by one of the better 3pt shooting teams in the league.

Jokic is going to destroy Rudy like he always does. Murray should have an easier time this go around because Min no longer has NAW to help McDaniels corral him. I also think Ant is more hurt than the team is letting on. I dont know if he's healthy enough to drop the 31 a game that will be required from him in this series.

[shrink]

One of traits that makes MIN frustrating in the regular season, and exciting in the playoffs is because the team plays up or down to their competition.

- MIN was 4-3 against OKC and SAS this year, 1-3 vs DEN (injuries make it hard to predict from).

- Even this year, MIN a was a top 10 defense against the top 10 offenses, and a top 10 offenses against the top 10 defenses.

- MIN keeps racking up upset wins in the last two playoffs, often in spectacular fashion.

When Ant is motivated, he takes his game to another level, and he often drags McDaniels and Naz Reid along for the ride.

The Wolves shouldn’t be favored against DEN, SAS, or OKC, but I would imagine MIN is not a team the others want to face.

[shrink]

It was good to see posts where people pointed to Julius Randle, an often overlooked piece on the Wolves.

Randle does really well against teams that don’t have a big to slow down his bully ball. OKC and SAS may be able to limit him, but DEN really doesn’t have a stopper like that. Last year, against similarly limited playoff teams, he was 4.4 APG, 5.2 RPG, 22.6 PPG against LAL, and 7.4 APG, 7.6 RPG, 25.2 PPG against GSW. McDaniels may use his size advantage as well.

The truth is, nobody stops Jokic, and the Wolves game plans for years have been to let him get his, but make it hard on whoever else is out there. Jokic’s court IQ can make average players look good, and good players look great. The Wolves want to make Jokic do the scoring, and see if they can limit the rest.

[BelgradeNugget]

It was good to see posts where people pointed to Julius Randle, an often overlooked piece on the Wolves.

Randle does really well against teams that don’t have a big to slow down his bully ball. OKC and SAS may be able to neutralize him, but DEN really doesn’t have a stopper like that. Last year, against similarly limited playoff teams, he was 4.4 APG, 5.2 RPG, 22.6 PPG against LAL, and 7.4 APG, 7.6 RPG, 25.2 PPG. McDaniels may use his size advantage as well.

The fact is Denver has the best player to guard Randle between them, OKC and SAS and that is Aaron Gordon. He is at the same time Nuggets best defender. He had a lot of problems with injuries this season, and if he is unable to play Nuggets would be in big trouble.

Key for Nuggets is also getting Spencer Jones back from injury. He is their 2nd best defender and with AG only one able to guard both Ant and Randle (not stop them, they are too good).

[shrink]

It was good to see posts where people pointed to Julius Randle, an often overlooked piece on the Wolves.

Randle does really well against teams that don’t have a big to slow down his bully ball. OKC and SAS may be able to neutralize him, but DEN really doesn’t have a stopper like that. Last year, against similarly limited playoff teams, he was 4.4 APG, 5.2 RPG, 22.6 PPG against LAL, and 7.4 APG, 7.6 RPG, 25.2 PPG. McDaniels may use his size advantage as well.

The fact is Denver has the best player to guard Randle between them, OKC and SAS and that is Aaron Gordon. He is at the same time Nuggets best defender. He had a lot of problems with injuries this season, and if he is unable to play Nuggets would be in big trouble.

Key for Nuggets is also getting Spencer Jones back from injury. He is their 2nd best defender and with AG only one able to guard both Ant and Randle (not stop them, they are too good).

Is that who DEN will choose to use Gordon against?

I know that Gordon has been injured, but Randle scored 20+ in all four games against DEN this season, and in the two games with Aaron Gordon in them, Randle was .533/6/8/26 and .529/3/7/24. He’s a tricky match up for the Nuggets personnel.

[BelgradeNugget]

It was good to see posts where people pointed to Julius Randle, an often overlooked piece on the Wolves.

Randle does really well against teams that don’t have a big to slow down his bully ball. OKC and SAS may be able to neutralize him, but DEN really doesn’t have a stopper like that. Last year, against similarly limited playoff teams, he was 4.4 APG, 5.2 RPG, 22.6 PPG against LAL, and 7.4 APG, 7.6 RPG, 25.2 PPG. McDaniels may use his size advantage as well.

The fact is Denver has the best player to guard Randle between them, OKC and SAS and that is Aaron Gordon. He is at the same time Nuggets best defender. He had a lot of problems with injuries this season, and if he is unable to play Nuggets would be in big trouble.

Key for Nuggets is also getting Spencer Jones back from injury. He is their 2nd best defender and with AG only one able to guard both Ant and Randle (not stop them, they are too good).

Is that who DEN will choose to use Gordon against?

I know that Gordon has been injured, but Randle scored 20+ in all four games against DEN this season, and in the two games with Aaron Gordon in them, Randle was .533/6/8/26 and .529/3/7/24. He’s a tricky match up for the Nuggets personnel.

I think they will use Braun on Ant and Gordon (maybe even Jokic for some minutes) on Randle. Randle had good stats in games AG played, but in 2nd game with AG, Nuggets win, Jokic was +18, Gordon was +33 in 36 minutes!!! Gordon can guard him better than anyone on the Nuggets.

For comparation Murray against Minny averaged 31.5/4.8/7.3 shooting 44%/44%(4.3-9.8)/74% with McDaniels playing in 4 games and Ant in 3.
But we know they can guard him better, as is the case with AG and Randle.

BTW with AG on the court Nuggets def rating was top 5 in the NBA (and with Murray off the court their def rating was top 3 but don't tell anyone )

I'm more concerned with who will guard Naz Reid from the Nuggets side. I expect Braun to mirror Ant's minutes, and Gordon with Randle. Brown will probably guard Dosunmu, but if Spencer Jones or Watson are out Nuggets don't have anyone to guard Naz.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some Valanciunas/Jokic lineups vs Randle/Gobert with Jokic on Randle and Val on Gobert.

EDIT> just to add comparing numbers Jokic averaged 35.8/15/11.3/1.3/1.5 shooting 65%/50%/93% vs Minny, but not because they didn't have good defenders against him. They have the best with OKC, but stakes were higher and he gave his 100%. I think the same happended with Randle vs Nuggets. He played to the best of his abilities

[cupcakesnake]

I think one thing that Minnesota will look to do once again is to wear Jokic out physically. Yes, the typical method for that is through physical defense, but I also would say that this year's Timberwolves are better equipped to wear down Jokic on the other end of the court.

KAT is 3 inches taller than Randle, with 4 more inches of wingspan. We really shouldn't count on being able to body Jokic as much as we did in 2024. Naz (6'9", 7'3" winspan) had some good moments on Jokic too, but I don't think Randle is going to provide the same level of obstacle that KAT did.

I am happier with Randle being on the ball, rather than falling asleep on the weakside. I just dont think we'll be able to harrass him quite as much this year, overall.

Murray is also healthier, and we don't have quite the same level of perimeter defense we used to. Jaden and NAW absolutely destroyed a banged up Murray. 2026 Wolves need Jaden as our second best rim protector, and NAW is gone. Ant and Ayo can hopefully level up the defensive effort in the playoffs.

There's less evidence we matchup well with Denver these days. They beat us 3-1 in the regular season. I believe we have the tools to win this series, but I'm less confident about our advantages.

[BelgradeNugget]

One thing that could work pro Wolfes is Jokic's injured elbow (and wrist on shooting hand). He is having problem with this injury, from time to time, for last 3-4 seasons. He is playing through it but just some numbers to look at

first 33 games 29.6 ppg on 60.5%/43.5%/85.3%
last 33 games 25.8 ppg on 53.3%/31.9%/81%

sign that elbow is giving him trouble is when he is playing with double sleave on right hand. We will see how he starts in playoffs with or without sleave

[shrink]

Matt Moore (DNVR, Hardwood Paroxyism) recently said that maybe the best person to put on Jokic is Ayo! He pointed out how OKC uses Caruso to front him, and just annoy Jokic.

We all know that nobody is going to stop Jokic. But if Ayo guards Jokic, that leaves MIN with a lot of defensive firepower for the rest of the team (Gobert, Ant, DDV, McDaniels). Also watch out for Kyle Anderson, who had the best defensive metrics for the Wolves in their last playoff match up.

[BelgradeNugget]

Matt Moore (DNVR, Hardwood Paroxyism) recently said that maybe the best person to put on Jokic is Ayo! He pointed out how OKC uses Caruso to front him, and just annoy Jokic.

We all know that nobody is going to stop Jokic. But if Ayo guards Jokic, that leaves MIN with a lot of defensive firepower for the rest of the team (Gobert, Ant, DDV, McDaniels). Also watch out for Kyle Anderson, who had the best defensive metrics for the Wolves in their last playoff match up.

I think Kyle Anderson is the best option for Minny. He is big, with solid strength and super smart. In that case Gobert could be behind him to roam around the basket. In the past it worked well with Rudy sagging off of AG, while Gordon was bad 3pt shooter. Now he turned himself into 40% from 3. Maybe Rudy on Braun this time to test his 3pt shooting.

With Ayo it wouldn't work like Caruso because refs let Caruso kill Jokic, and Wolfes are not NBA darlings as we know.

Foul, foul, foul defense is alowed only to OKC

[shrink]

After this series, let’s be best friends.

[Klomp]

I think one thing that Minnesota will look to do once again is to wear Jokic out physically. Yes, the typical method for that is through physical defense, but I also would say that this year's Timberwolves are better equipped to wear down Jokic on the other end of the court.

KAT is 3 inches taller than Randle, with 4 more inches of wingspan. We really shouldn't count on being able to body Jokic as much as we did in 2024. Naz (6'9", 7'3" winspan) had some good moments on Jokic too, but I don't think Randle is going to provide the same level of obstacle that KAT did.

I am happier with Randle being on the ball, rather than falling asleep on the weakside. I just dont think we'll be able to harrass him quite as much this year, overall.

Murray is also healthier, and we don't have quite the same level of perimeter defense we used to. Jaden and NAW absolutely destroyed a banged up Murray. 2026 Wolves need Jaden as our second best rim protector, and NAW is gone. Ant and Ayo can hopefully level up the defensive effort in the playoffs.

There's less evidence we matchup well with Denver these days. They beat us 3-1 in the regular season. I believe we have the tools to win this series, but I'm less confident about our advantages.

That's kind of my point. We can't fall back on beating them in the same way we did two years ago, especially not if the Nuggets are fully healthy. If we try that, we might get swept.

However, I think we can make it an interesting series through relentlessly attacking them on offense and in finding transition opportunities. I know the team still talks about its defensive identity, but I think offense is where they have their best shot of matching Denver in the series.

[ball_takes23]

I don't see how either team stops either team. Minnesota is way too fast, athletic and strong for Denver's defense and will be able to get to the rim at will. Denver is much more well rounded than the last time they met and will punish Minnesota if they overplay on Jokic. This will be a very high scoring series and will come down to the role players like usual.

[erod009]

Matt Moore (DNVR, Hardwood Paroxyism) recently said that maybe the best person to put on Jokic is Ayo! He pointed out how OKC uses Caruso to front him, and just annoy Jokic.

We all know that nobody is going to stop Jokic. But if Ayo guards Jokic, that leaves MIN with a lot of defensive firepower for the rest of the team (Gobert, Ant, DDV, McDaniels). Also watch out for Kyle Anderson, who had the best defensive metrics for the Wolves in their last playoff match up.

I think Kyle Anderson is the best option for Minny. He is big, with solid strength and super smart. In that case Gobert could be behind him to roam around the basket. In the past it worked well with Rudy sagging off of AG, while Gordon was bad 3pt shooter. Now he turned himself into 40% from 3. Maybe Rudy on Braun this time to test his 3pt shooting.

With Ayo it wouldn't work like Caruso because refs let Caruso kill Jokic, and Wolfes are not NBA darlings as we know.

Foul, foul, foul defense is alowed only to OKC

At first I was liking the idea of Ayo on Jokic, but you have an excellent point here.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Hot take: Anthony Edwards is indeed injured... and that injury will benefit Minnesota.

The Nuggets are going to try to get the ball out of Edwards' hands. They'll blitz him and put two on the ball. MN coaches want Edwards to give up the ball to take advantage of the numbers. Edwards does this, sometimes. Other times, he dribbles and dribbles and that advantage is lost. Being limited by his injury, he might be more willing to get off the ball.

Then, the next step is for Randle, DiVincenzo, Reid, Dosunmu, et al to take advantage.

Still won't be enough in the end though...

[bisme37]

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[Mrakar]

Nuggets have one of the least transpartent public relations. We have no ideao of Watson and Jones are missing whole first round series or if they will be back.
I think they will help Nuggets a bit, but they really need those 2 to save Aaron Gordon. He hasnt been healthy last 2 years and i dont think he can survive 2 though series in a row, let alone 4 that Nuggets need to get to the championship. Not having his 2 backups doesnt help at all...

[erod009]

Minnesota might have the toughest path to the title of all time. The easiest series would be the finals

[shrink]

Minnesota might have the toughest path to the title of all time. The easiest series would be the finals

True! But maybe that’s what the Weird Wolves need? In the last two playoffs:

2024 vs PHX - Slight Favorites (though many predicted jump shooting Suns would be too bad a match up) - Win
2024 vs DEN - Underdogs - Win
2024 vs DAL - Favorites - Loss

2025 vs LAK - Underdogs - Win
2025 vs GSW - Favorites - Win
2025 vs OKC - Underdogs - Loss