AJ Dybantsa

[FrodoBaggins]

This guy, but 3 to 4 inches bigger and more athletic. Add an extra 3 to 5 PPG and .030 to .050 TS% to his scoring production, due to superior rim scoring, FT drawing, and era differences. I think the style of offense, basketball IQ, passing/playmaking, and defense are all relatively similar. Same strengths, just amplified; same weaknesses.

Expect some 30+ PPG, .600+ TS% seasons.

I'd still take Boozer over him, though. I think he's going to have that scorer's mentality to the detriment of defense, shot selection, off-ball offense, and passing/playmaking. General team play stuff. An incredible bucket getter that grinds the pace and ball movement to a halt, and prioritizes his gas tank toward on-ball and isolation scoring.

The opportunity cost of playing Dybantsa Ball saps his impact and makes fitting with other talent potentially questionable. I'm not sure he'll ever have Shai's or Harden's handle and point guard qualities, which make their on-ball heavy, isolation approach more palatable in a team context. AJ will be a primary creator, but more of a wing scorer who operates in the slot and passes out only when he absolutely has to.

Watch on YouTube

I don't get this take. The context a player plays in dictates how a player plays. Put AJ on the Duke team last year instead of Cooper Flagg. Do you think AJ plays the same style? Put Coop on this BYU team after Richie Saunders goes down. How does Coop play? People on this thread underestimate just how much team fit and coaching plays a role in a players development. Don't just put the ball in AJ's hands. Force him to develop a well rounded game. Hold him accountable to playing defense. Push him to develop his 3-point shot. Regardless of what team drafts him, this what they should do.

I think you want AJ to be someone that he isn't, that he hasn't shown himself to be. Star or "primary" options largely play how they want to, not necessarily how they should, to varying degrees and exceptions. Some players are more malleable than others; AJ's game is more inelastic than Cooper's. His feel for the game and basketball IQ are not as developed, and his mentality is more rigid, keyed in on being a scorer.

Is it possible that Dybantsa develops a more well-rounded game? Sure. I expect him to. But to what degree? To what magnitude? And will that development be meaningful? His habits and tendencies so far haven't suggested or shown that. His #1 draft pick, superstar talent status will grant him primacy from day one, and that may cater to and ultimately enable his on-ball, isolation scoring-focused, DeRozan-esque traits and style of play.

DeMar became a better passer and playmaker, but he still displays many of the same potentially negative traits he's always had.

Don't get me wrong, I think AJ will be great. A bigger, more athletic DeMar DeRozan is a killer player. 30+ PPG, .600+ TS% potential. Worth the #1 pick over most, save for the best of the best. I just don't think his Global Impact on the scoring margin will be consistently as high as Boozer's.

[Marvin Martian]

Now that we know the draft order, I am a lot more bearish on AJ's career. WAS has a lot of guys that want the ball, and AJ would be a role player from day 1 which is not his style.

I have heavy doubts that he will be the ROTY. Whoever goes to MEM will have more of an opportunity to be a franchise player as they have already traded JJJ and will likely trade Morant this offseason.

[Benjammin]

When an apex predator comes along some fans clutch their pearls and start to conjure boogeymen in their head. Instead of actually watching tape and analyzing said player they just throw out erroneous comparisons that don't fit. Not because they dislike said player but because they don't want said player to be on the level of their nostalgic heroes.

This is very erroneous. Not only is nobody doing this, nobody has shown any indication of doing it either this whole thread and I don't think it's common anywhere else either. Discourse surrounding AJ is overwhelmingly positive all across the basketball world, as the next Tracy McGrady.

Something that has much more basis is the idea that you're overrating AJ because you are a Wizards fan and have been getting excited for him due to the prevailing presumption that he will be heading to Washington.

they just throw out erroneous comparisons that don't fit.

Also, would you not agree that DeMar DeRozan and Jaylen Brown are legends of the game? Any prospect should be honored to be compared to them.

DeMar a "legend of the game?" Really? Seriously? A legend you say?

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[Caneman786]

What is this? Wiggins or a Budget Derozan. Jaylen Brown as a comp?

Those are excellent flattering comparisons. DeMar DeRozan is a first-ballot hall-of-famer. Jaylen Brown is likely a hall-of-famer. He said that Jaylen Brown is a "median outcome". That would be amazing.

The comparison fits very nicely and you still have not provided any proof of your ad hominem attack that people are rating Dybantsa poorly because they are "afraid he will pass their favorite player". You don't know that, it wasn't mentioned, and there's no indication anybody said anything of the sort. There's no reason to be making such accusations.

I can only speak for myself, but I love AJ Dybantsa and his game. I hope he surpasses Tracy McGrady. If he passed my favorite players all time, I don't care. It would be good for the sport. And there's a chance he could do that. He could even be the face of the league.

We don't know what the future holds for Dybantsa, but he is so good that it's in the range of possible outcomes. I think having a face of the league with his attitude would be awesome. He seems competitive and I liked it when he played 40 minutes a game, saying "If Coach needs me to play 40 minutes, I'll play 40 minutes." That resonated a lot with me.

Admitting all this, he probably will not be the face of the league, and I wouldn't draft him in my top 2.

[Caneman786]

DeMar a "legend of the game?" Really? Seriously? A legend you say?

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Obviously he's a legend. He will likely retire with at least 30K career points and is arguably the Raptors franchise GOAT. There's no doubt that he's in the top 3 for the franchise.

He will be selected as a first-ballot hall-of-famer, unanimously. Living legend.

[Caneman786]

Meanwhile if Boozer goes to Memphis or Chicago he'll be on teams that have limited talent.

Wait 'till you find out that Memphis has more talent than Washington

[Benjammin]

DeMar a "legend of the game?" Really? Seriously? A legend you say?

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Obviously he's a legend. He will likely retire with at least 30K career points and is arguably the Raptors franchise GOAT. There's no doubt that he's in the top 3 for the franchise.

He will be selected as a first-ballot hall-of-famer, unanimously. Living legend.

A stat compiler who has made close to 300 million in his career. He's legendary for that, sure.

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[FrodoBaggins]

Memphis could very quickly become the next OKC or SAS. Edey showed extreme upside in a little under 300 minutes on the floor this season. And I mean extreme upside. If he can get healthy and build on what he showed, watch out. Add to that continued Cedric Coward development and Cameron Boozer exceeding expectations. That's a foundational core of high-quality talent with high basketball IQ and great intangibles that fit together.

I'm keeping a keen eye on the Grizzlies.

[BigGargamel]

Now that we know the draft order, I am a lot more bearish on AJ's career. WAS has a lot of guys that want the ball, and AJ would be a role player from day 1 which is not his style.

I have heavy doubts that he will be the ROTY. Whoever goes to MEM will have more of an opportunity to be a franchise player as they have already traded JJJ and will likely trade Morant this offseason.

Eh. I doubt that they are seriously going to build around Young and Davis long term. They just scooped those guys up on the cheap to win a few more games next year. That team will still belong to whoever they end up drafting long term.

[Cammo101]

People will pick AJ apart and then with a straight face tell you Boozer will be better in the NBA than he was in college.

[JMAC3]

People will pick AJ apart and then with a straight face tell you Boozer will be better in the NBA than he was in college.

Because half the people don't watch games, they just look at spreadsheets to discuss players.

[Cammo101]

People will pick AJ apart and then with a straight face tell you Boozer will be better in the NBA than he was in college.

Because half the people don't watch games, they just look at spreadsheets to discuss players.

Sad but true. I don't think it is wise to ignore the analytics, but I also don't think it's wise to ignore the eye test. Both should work in tandem, ESPECIALLY as it pertains to scouting players who are mostly playing against future bankers and used car salesmen. Analytics in the NBA is a lot more valuable IMO than the analytics of college guys being projected to the NBA.

[King Ken]

People will pick AJ apart and then with a straight face tell you Boozer will be better in the NBA than he was in college.

Because half the people don't watch games, they just look at spreadsheets to discuss players.

Sad but true. I don't think it is wise to ignore the analytics, but I also don't think it's wise to ignore the eye test. Both should work in tandem, ESPECIALLY as it pertains to scouting players who are mostly playing against future bankers and used car salesmen. Analytics in the NBA is a lot more valuable IMO than the analytics of college guys being projected to the NBA.

Completely different game. Especially for bigs.

[SeattleJazzFan]

Now that we know the draft order, I am a lot more bearish on AJ's career. WAS has a lot of guys that want the ball, and AJ would be a role player from day 1 which is not his style.

I have heavy doubts that he will be the ROTY. Whoever goes to MEM will have more of an opportunity to be a franchise player as they have already traded JJJ and will likely trade Morant this offseason.

AJ a role player on that washington team? lol, that's cute.

AJ will lead that team in scoring from day one. WAS does have a lot of guys that want the ball - that is true. but AJ is better at basketball than they are and he's an alpha - all those guys who want the ball are going to have to learn to let the game come to them.

[prime1time]

This guy, but 3 to 4 inches bigger and more athletic. Add an extra 3 to 5 PPG and .030 to .050 TS% to his scoring production, due to superior rim scoring, FT drawing, and era differences. I think the style of offense, basketball IQ, passing/playmaking, and defense are all relatively similar. Same strengths, just amplified; same weaknesses.

Expect some 30+ PPG, .600+ TS% seasons.

I'd still take Boozer over him, though. I think he's going to have that scorer's mentality to the detriment of defense, shot selection, off-ball offense, and passing/playmaking. General team play stuff. An incredible bucket getter that grinds the pace and ball movement to a halt, and prioritizes his gas tank toward on-ball and isolation scoring.

The opportunity cost of playing Dybantsa Ball saps his impact and makes fitting with other talent potentially questionable. I'm not sure he'll ever have Shai's or Harden's handle and point guard qualities, which make their on-ball heavy, isolation approach more palatable in a team context. AJ will be a primary creator, but more of a wing scorer who operates in the slot and passes out only when he absolutely has to.

Watch on YouTube

I don't get this take. The context a player plays in dictates how a player plays. Put AJ on the Duke team last year instead of Cooper Flagg. Do you think AJ plays the same style? Put Coop on this BYU team after Richie Saunders goes down. How does Coop play? People on this thread underestimate just how much team fit and coaching plays a role in a players development. Don't just put the ball in AJ's hands. Force him to develop a well rounded game. Hold him accountable to playing defense. Push him to develop his 3-point shot. Regardless of what team drafts him, this what they should do.

I think you want AJ to be someone that he isn't, that he hasn't shown himself to be. Star or "primary" options largely play how they want to, not necessarily how they should, to varying degrees and exceptions. Some players are more malleable than others; AJ's game is more inelastic than Cooper's. His feel for the game and basketball IQ are not as developed, and his mentality is more rigid, keyed in on being a scorer.

Is it possible that Dybantsa develops a more well-rounded game? Sure. I expect him to. But to what degree? To what magnitude? And will that development be meaningful? His habits and tendencies so far haven't suggested or shown that. His #1 draft pick, superstar talent status will grant him primacy from day one, and that may cater to and ultimately enable his on-ball, isolation scoring-focused, DeRozan-esque traits and style of play.

DeMar became a better passer and playmaker, but he still displays many of the same potentially negative traits he's always had.

Don't get me wrong, I think AJ will be great. A bigger, more athletic DeMar DeRozan is a killer player. 30+ PPG, .600+ TS% potential. Worth the #1 pick over most, save for the best of the best. I just don't think his Global Impact on the scoring margin will be consistently as high as Boozer's.

I think the gap between you and I is that we look at the game differently. I want a guy that has incredible physical traits, a consistent track record of improvement and is the ultimate competitor. All the other stuff I can figure out. If a player has those three things, it will function as an engine that will drive him towards greatness. The physical ability/talent give him his potential. His consistent improvement reflects his habits. And the competitor means he's willing to do what it takes to win. AJ checks all three boxes.

I'm not concerned about what is possible, what is likely, what is elastic, what is inelastic, who has the more well rounded game, negtative traits, how good a passer he is. It's all noise. Does he hate to lose. Is he improving. Is he physically dominant. AJ can jump 8 inches higher than Flagg. AJ is .75 inches taller than Flagg. AJ has a longer wingspan than Flagg. AJ is already a much more talented scorer than Flagg and I doubt Flagg ever catches up. That's enough for me. He started the college season at 18, now he's only 19. He has all the ingredients I need to make the #1 pick and hope for the best.

[prime1time]

Now that we know the draft order, I am a lot more bearish on AJ's career. WAS has a lot of guys that want the ball, and AJ would be a role player from day 1 which is not his style.

I have heavy doubts that he will be the ROTY. Whoever goes to MEM will have more of an opportunity to be a franchise player as they have already traded JJJ and will likely trade Morant this offseason.

AJ a role player on that washington team? lol, that's cute.

AJ will lead that team in scoring from day one. WAS does have a lot of guys that want the ball - that is true. but AJ is better at basketball than they are and he's an alpha - all those guys who want the ball are going to have to learn to let the game come to them.

I think Washington will push him to round out his game. We're not just going to play a heliocentric style of basketball. Specifically, I think they'll push AJ to become a better defender, a better shooter and a better playmaker. He needs to have a superstar impact without the ball in his hands. He'll also score, but I think that's where the season starts.

[SeattleJazzFan]

Now that we know the draft order, I am a lot more bearish on AJ's career. WAS has a lot of guys that want the ball, and AJ would be a role player from day 1 which is not his style.

I have heavy doubts that he will be the ROTY. Whoever goes to MEM will have more of an opportunity to be a franchise player as they have already traded JJJ and will likely trade Morant this offseason.

AJ a role player on that washington team? lol, that's cute.

AJ will lead that team in scoring from day one. WAS does have a lot of guys that want the ball - that is true. but AJ is better at basketball than they are and he's an alpha - all those guys who want the ball are going to have to learn to let the game come to them.

I think Washington will push him to round out his game. We're not just going to play a heliocentric style of basketball. Specifically, I think they'll push AJ to become a better defender, a better shooter and a better playmaker. He needs to have a superstar impact without the ball in his hands. He'll also score, but I think that's where the season starts.

i agree they will do all that. but they will let him be him as well, which is that of an alpha scorer. they will develop him in those other areas while allowing him to play to his strengths at the same time.

[NO-KG-AI]

Now that we know the draft order, I am a lot more bearish on AJ's career. WAS has a lot of guys that want the ball, and AJ would be a role player from day 1 which is not his style.

I have heavy doubts that he will be the ROTY. Whoever goes to MEM will have more of an opportunity to be a franchise player as they have already traded JJJ and will likely trade Morant this offseason.

AJ a role player on that washington team? lol, that's cute.

AJ will lead that team in scoring from day one. WAS does have a lot of guys that want the ball - that is true. but AJ is better at basketball than they are and he's an alpha - all those guys who want the ball are going to have to learn to let the game come to them.

Dominant #1 picks on teams with no help generally top out at low 20’s in scoring at best. He’s going to need Trae Young to completely crater or not play to top whatever he ends up scoring. The highest since the year 2000 is 22.5, Blake Griffin, who was one of the few non HS or one and done guys, and was given full carte blanche as a rookie.

[tontoz]

Now that we know the draft order, I am a lot more bearish on AJ's career. WAS has a lot of guys that want the ball, and AJ would be a role player from day 1 which is not his style.

I have heavy doubts that he will be the ROTY. Whoever goes to MEM will have more of an opportunity to be a franchise player as they have already traded JJJ and will likely trade Morant this offseason.

AJ a role player on that washington team? lol, that's cute.

AJ will lead that team in scoring from day one. WAS does have a lot of guys that want the ball - that is true. but AJ is better at basketball than they are and he's an alpha - all those guys who want the ball are going to have to learn to let the game come to them.

The wizards have a lot of guys who like to shoot jumpers but nobody that puts pressure on the rim. That is AJ's strength. He will fit in just fine.

[Benjammin]

He will fit in well but he's not averaging 20ppg as a rookie unless Trae Young and AD both are hurt most of the year.

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