1. Cameron Boozer, freshman, 6-9, PF/C, Duke
Yes, Boozer.
Similar to Cooper Flagg a year earlier, Boozer both destroyed college basketball and, at 18 years old, is the youngest college prospect in the draft. That he isn’t obviously the No. 1 pick at this point is a tell on the strength of this class, but I also wonder if everyone is overthinking things a bit.
Yes, some weaknesses jump out when you watch Boozer. He struggles to elevate and finish against length around the rim, something that stood out when Virginia’s Ugonna Onyenso repeatedly blocked his shot in the ACC championship game. Yes, Boozer’s ability as a rim protector is suspect, to say the least, with a minuscule 0.9 percent block rate in conference games. Finally, at 6 feet 9 and 250 pounds, he’s undersized for a center but may not have the mobility to play power forward.
The reason you take him No. 1 anyway is that Boozer was basically “college basketball Nikola Jokić” last season. He’s a huge, wide big man who nonetheless can handle on the perimeter and shoot 3s (39.1 percent from distance, 78.9 percent from the line). Duke ran inverted pick-and-rolls for him last season, where he was picking out 3-point shooters on the weak side and flicking one-handed crosscourt passes. As a rule, teenage centers do not do this, and when they do, they turn out to be pretty special.
That, basically, is my elevator pitch for Boozer as the top pick: Don’t worry about the defense, because the offense is going to be ridiculous. Pairing him with a mobile shot-blocker will be important, but Boozer’s resume is overwhelming.
I’ll throw in a few other Boozer nuggets while I’m here. First of all, his feel at the defensive end is pretty strong too; he averaged 2.8 steals per 100 possessions in conference play, which a lot of first-round guards didn’t do.
But let’s get back to that passing, because that to me is the ultimate reason to take him. I have a basic draft theory that I call the Marc Gasol Rule: Bigs who can pass, figure it out. Gasol was thought to be so vulnerable on defense that the Grizzlies drafted Hasheem Thabeet to play next to him. Gasol ended up winning a Defensive Player of the Year trophy. So much of big-man defense is reading what’s happening and figuring out position and angles. That’s why a lot of “feel” bigs like Gasol (or Jokić!) end up being solid-to-good defenders even with meh tools.
Boozer is only 6-9, so he’s operating with a different ceiling, and ultimately, he may play a lot at power forward. But he showed enough mobility that I don’t think he’d be a disaster at that spot defensively, and he’d have massive advantages at the other end if matched up that way.
In the end, it’s hard not to see a Kevin Love-type impact as a median outcome for Boozer, but he was so dominant at such a young age that there may be upside for more.
He basically says the offense outweighs the defense. Ok. But how good is offense? Is it most secondary scorer good passer? Or primary scorer good passer? I don't buy the high end upside on Boozer's scoring. I buy his passing, but you still would need to find a primary scorer who's not bad defensively and a rim protector who could ideally space the floor. I'm concerned about his switchability, I'm concerned about his rim protection, I'm concerned about his potential to be a primary scorer. He's a very good player who doesn't easily fit into building a winning team. Boozer's best fit is for teams that already have a two way primary scorer. Like Cade or Ant or Flagg.
