Caleb Wilson

[coldfish]

All those posts downgrading Wilson`s upside below #3 or even further down to the bottom of all basketball failures, like Warrick, are straight bananas. The kid just ruined Duke in the most important game of the season. He has heart and motor, still learning, growing and developing. It will be another Thabeet-like disaster if Memphis passes on him.

As a Bulls fan . . . . . I almost am glad they have the 4 pick so they don't have to worry about absolutely botching it.

Regardless, people tend to forget that Caleb and Cameron played each other and Caleb looked like the better player. Its not like Caleb did nothing in college and he is just rising the draft boards based on combine results.

Careful not to speak it into existence. The Bulls can still screw this up.

[Notanoob]

Doing deep dives and I don't think he has particularly high BBIQ, in fact, I think he's the opposite. Because he's such a fast twitch athlete though he can make up for it sometimes. His appeal to me is that he's more of a 3 than people seem to understand. He very well may straight up be the 3 in certain lineups. He will break 4/5 down in ISO and will be too big for 3s. He's the rawest of any of the top guys by quite a bit but the payoff if he responds to coaching could see him become all-nba. Teams will have to have a plan for him and risk tolerance to draft him so high but imho at least, he's worth it.

Non-shooting 3's are pretty much impossible to start in today's league. That makes the shooting not just a nice-to-have, but a must have swing skill. That scares me, even with the decent ft%.

Yeah Wilson has to be playable as a 4 right now. The Pistons start Thompson as a non-shooting 3 and despite being an All-NBA defender and stronger and more athletic than Wilson it's still an issue.

[Chi town]

I'm probably going to trust my analytical model. Caleb rises to #2 on my big board after Boozer. This kid is the most versatile player this year.

I have him tagged as shot creator, two way, point forward, slasher, interior scorer. No one else this year at the top has 5 tags, and his tags also include the rare point forward one.

Caleb today won't be a good player. If he develops a bit in 1-2 years, he has MVP potential. I think Caleb is really what people think Dybantsa is, except they are overrating volume scoring. This kid's upside is a Chris Bosh meets Giannis mix.

That should be how he’s developed. Point forward 1st option. Watch his HS tape and plays mostly as a 3. I think he will take big PFs off the dribble and punish smaller 4s. In PNR he will be a tough cover after a switch.

[Chi town]

All those posts downgrading Wilson`s upside below #3 or even further down to the bottom of all basketball failures, like Warrick, are straight bananas. The kid just ruined Duke in the most important game of the season. He has heart and motor, still learning, growing and developing. It will be another Thabeet-like disaster if Memphis passes on him.

4 in this year's draft is not a diss. It's loaded at the top. Grading only on upside ignores the very real low-end outcomes that exist to varying degrees in every player. Caleb is a high variance player. His shot might fall into place, his defensive awareness might catch up to his tools, he might become a super sized Josh Smith. However, he also might never put it together.

For the record, Hakim Warrick is not a basketball failure. It would be a statistical outlier if 15 players from this draft class had a better career than him.

What "grading only un upside" you are talking about? He destroyed Boozer in the most important rivalry game of the year. We all know what he is capable of at the current stage of development - he is a legit NBA player, nothing to discuss here. There is a clear trajectory for him to become an all-star player with the set of his size, athletism, and skills. That ceiling is obvious, while when we speak about Boozer all what is obvious is his insanely high floor. Nothing else.

What I love about him most is how he raises his game in big games and big moments. He has that mamba mentality a I think he has that best player on the team and the leader of the team mix. His team will play like him. That’s special and rare.

[DukeLecker]

Caleb Wilson's game, raw skills, athletic profile and measurables are incredibly similar to Tyrus Thomas. Ironically, Wilson will likely be the 4th pick in the draft and end up in Chicago--just like Thomas--only 20 years apart. Wilson has a little better offensive profile, but I'll be stunned if he grows to become the legitimate 1st or 2nd option on a championship caliber team. Thomas had the better defensive profile. Thomas was projected by many to become a star. He was an absolute athletic freak but amounted to very little. How is Wilson going to be materially different?

[SeattleJazzFan]

Caleb Wilson's game, raw skills, athletic profile and measurables are incredibly similar to Tyrus Thomas. Ironically, Wilson will likely be the 4th pick in the draft and end up in Chicago--just like Thomas--only 20 years apart. Wilson has a little better offensive profile, but I'll be stunned if he grows to become the legitimate 1st or 2nd option on a championship caliber team. Thomas had the better defensive profile. Thomas was projected by many to become a star. He was an absolute athletic freak but amounted to very little. How is Wilson going to be materially different?

production matters. huge difference between 12 ppg and 20 ppg.

[MGB8]

Caleb Wilson's game, raw skills, athletic profile and measurables are incredibly similar to Tyrus Thomas. Ironically, Wilson will likely be the 4th pick in the draft and end up in Chicago--just like Thomas--only 20 years apart. Wilson has a little better offensive profile, but I'll be stunned if he grows to become the legitimate 1st or 2nd option on a championship caliber team. Thomas had the better defensive profile. Thomas was projected by many to become a star. He was an absolute athletic freak but amounted to very little. How is Wilson going to be materially different?

Thomas’ issue was that he didn’t put in work. He was a head case. If he had put in work, he would have been a multi-time all star. And Wilson already more advanced than Thomas on both ends, in terms of actual bball IQ and skill set.

[Duke4life831]

Caleb Wilson's game, raw skills, athletic profile and measurables are incredibly similar to Tyrus Thomas. Ironically, Wilson will likely be the 4th pick in the draft and end up in Chicago--just like Thomas--only 20 years apart. Wilson has a little better offensive profile, but I'll be stunned if he grows to become the legitimate 1st or 2nd option on a championship caliber team. Thomas had the better defensive profile. Thomas was projected by many to become a star. He was an absolute athletic freak but amounted to very little. How is Wilson going to be materially different?

The problem with this thinking though is, there is nothing that held Thomas back from being a star. The only thing that held back Tyrus was Tyrus. You take that physical profile everyday of the week without hesitation.

Tyrus has even been pretty straight forward after the fact that he just relied on his athleticism and thought it would be good enough. His inability to pickup Skiles and Brown's schemes were also well documented.

Its kind of like a Michael Beasley thing. There is nothing physical that prevented Beasley from excelling in the NBA. But because he didnt excel, doesnt mean you pass on the next 6'9 athlete that can basically do it all on the offensive end. You just have to do your due diligence to see if they have a better attitude towards the game and a better work ethic.

[CptCrunch]

Most people make the same mistake year after year. Prospect X is similar to Y in college! Y turned out bad/good/great/terrible, so X might follow the same path. It's a classic case of anecdotal fallacy.

No player is complete on draft day. It takes year of development for players to develop into their NBA peaks. You could argue that work ethic, basketball intelligence, personal intelligence, emotional intelligence, drafting organization all play into this, but none of those are measurable, so we can't reliably determine which prospect will and the others that won't.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Caleb Wilson's game, raw skills, athletic profile and measurables are incredibly similar to Tyrus Thomas. Ironically, Wilson will likely be the 4th pick in the draft and end up in Chicago--just like Thomas--only 20 years apart. Wilson has a little better offensive profile, but I'll be stunned if he grows to become the legitimate 1st or 2nd option on a championship caliber team. Thomas had the better defensive profile. Thomas was projected by many to become a star. He was an absolute athletic freak but amounted to very little. How is Wilson going to be materially different?

Thomas was much stiffer. A better recent comp would be Marquese Chriss. I think the difference between Wilson and Thomas and Chriss is that they were knuckleheads with maturity issues where Wilson is seemingly not. I know with Chriss his issues were well-known prior to PHO drafting him and that was a rudderless organization just throwing crap at the wall not doing any of their draft picks (Chriss, Bender, Jackson) favors when it came to developing them. He was quickly sent packing and once the team that drafts you moves on it's nearly impossible to carve out a career with a new one. But there IS a danger of taking these types because the bust rate is super high. I think they're all guys that might have been stars in the 90s/00s but with how the game has changed 4s have been mostly left behind. That's why I think Wilson's ability to put it on the floor like a 3 differentiates him.

[Prospect Dong]

Caleb Wilson's game, raw skills, athletic profile and measurables are incredibly similar to Tyrus Thomas. Ironically, Wilson will likely be the 4th pick in the draft and end up in Chicago--just like Thomas--only 20 years apart. Wilson has a little better offensive profile, but I'll be stunned if he grows to become the legitimate 1st or 2nd option on a championship caliber team. Thomas had the better defensive profile. Thomas was projected by many to become a star. He was an absolute athletic freak but amounted to very little. How is Wilson going to be materially different?

The problem with this thinking though is, there is nothing that held Thomas back from being a star. The only thing that held back Tyrus was Tyrus. You take that physical profile everyday of the week without hesitation.

Tyrus has even been pretty straight forward after the fact that he just relied on his athleticism and thought it would be good enough. His inability to pickup Skiles and Brown's schemes were also well documented.

Its kind of like a Michael Beasley thing. There is nothing physical that prevented Beasley from excelling in the NBA. But because he didnt excel, doesnt mean you pass on the next 6'9 athlete that can basically do it all on the offensive end. You just have to do your due diligence to see if they have a better attitude towards the game and a better work ethic.

Yeah, this is the same debate we were having about Bagley - who I think is a closer comparison because of his actual production in college - upthread.

How much do you update your priors when a similar college prospect busts in the pros? Were Bagley, Thomas, (Beasley, Williams, Swift) etc just unforeseeable fifth percentile outcomes based on their draft day projections, or do they tell us something transferable about the next guy who looks kinda like them? I think at least a little of both, right?

Like, you have to be a bit more concerned about Wilson's floor in a post-Bagley world, or looking for objective reasons why he's going to be different, even if you think Bagley was just bad luck. Where would you draft Marvin Bagley's (or Tyrus Thomas') identical twin in this draft? Not #4, right?

FWIW, "he can handle the ball pretty well for a college 4" seems to be true and not all that comforting, if you go back and look at Bagley's scouting reports. The FT% and standing reach/blocks are a bit more meaningful IMO.

[King Ken]

Jalen Johnson has had success so let's not just compare him to busts.

[SeattleJazzFan]

yup. bagley is a much better comparison than thomas due to the similarities in production. however, and we always do this comparison thing at draft time, but in spite of any similarities two players might have, no two players are the same. and you simply can't ever say because player A failed, and player B is similar to player A, player B will also fail.

[MGB8]

yup. bagley is a much better comparison than thomas due to the similarities in production. however, and we always do this comparison thing at draft time, but in spite of any similarities two players might have, no two players are the same. and you simply can't ever say because player A failed, and player B is similar to player A, player B will also fail.

Kind of to your point, Bagley coming in was a different type of profile. WCJ was the defensive anchor, not Bagley. Bagley was the offense guy. There were (whispered) questions about his bball IQ as well as whether he was a bit soft/finesse. Bagley was also seen more as a 4 to 4/5, instead of a 4 to 4/3…

[Prospect Dong]

yup. bagley is a much better comparison than thomas due to the similarities in production. however, and we always do this comparison thing at draft time, but in spite of any similarities two players might have, no two players are the same. and you simply can't ever say because player A failed, and player B is similar to player A, player B will also fail.

Kind of to your point, Bagley coming in was a different type of profile. WCJ was the defensive anchor, not Bagley. Bagley was the offense guy. There were (whispered) questions about his bball IQ as well as whether he was a bit soft/finesse. Bagley was also seen more as a 4 to 4/5, instead of a 4 to 4/3…

I think that's true about the positions, but then it worries me that Wilson is kinda a tweener at the 3/4 - no outside shot, and he's shown pretty good ballhandling for a college 4 on offense, but that was true of Bagley as well and absolutely does not get you to NBA SF. His combine agility measures are worse than Boozer's, and even if that's just testing vs real games, calls into question his ability to defend down a position too.

And Bagley owns Duke's single season dunk record with 98 (just under three per game) while Wilson is at 2.75 (this is per Chat, so I'm maybe 80% certain). The 'finesse' thing is mostly revisionist history, IMO. It's just how he turned out when the competition got tougher, not how he played as a college freshman. I think they're both more 5s on offense in the modern NBA unless Wilson's outside shot develops, so they really need to deliver rim protection. Wilson definitely has the edge in that department, with standing reach and blocks.

[GreatWhiteStiff]

Caleb Wilson's game, raw skills, athletic profile and measurables are incredibly similar to Tyrus Thomas. Ironically, Wilson will likely be the 4th pick in the draft and end up in Chicago--just like Thomas--only 20 years apart. Wilson has a little better offensive profile, but I'll be stunned if he grows to become the legitimate 1st or 2nd option on a championship caliber team. Thomas had the better defensive profile. Thomas was projected by many to become a star. He was an absolute athletic freak but amounted to very little. How is Wilson going to be materially different?

The problem with this thinking though is, there is nothing that held Thomas back from being a star. The only thing that held back Tyrus was Tyrus. You take that physical profile everyday of the week without hesitation.

Tyrus has even been pretty straight forward after the fact that he just relied on his athleticism and thought it would be good enough. His inability to pickup Skiles and Brown's schemes were also well documented.

Its kind of like a Michael Beasley thing. There is nothing physical that prevented Beasley from excelling in the NBA. But because he didnt excel, doesnt mean you pass on the next 6'9 athlete that can basically do it all on the offensive end. You just have to do your due diligence to see if they have a better attitude towards the game and a better work ethic.

Yeah, this is the same debate we were having about Bagley - who I think is a closer comparison because of his actual production in college - upthread.

How much do you update your priors when a similar college prospect busts in the pros? Were Bagley, Thomas, (Beasley, Williams, Swift) etc just unforeseeable fifth percentile outcomes based on their draft day projections, or do they tell us something transferable about the next guy who looks kinda like them? I think at least a little of both, right?

Like, you have to be a bit more concerned about Wilson's floor in a post-Bagley world, or looking for objective reasons why he's going to be different, even if you think Bagley was just bad luck. Where would you draft Marvin Bagley's (or Tyrus Thomas') identical twin in this draft? Not #4, right?

FWIW, "he can handle the ball pretty well for a college 4" seems to be true and not all that comforting, if you go back and look at Bagley's scouting reports. The FT% and standing reach/blocks are a bit more meaningful IMO.

I mean isn't this 4th pick guy some kind of 1337 passer as well, whereas Beas was more of a "walking bucket" type of guy. Beasley was a bust but we should remember he could score in the nba and showed some promise early IIRC.

[tmorgan]

Wilson is very likely going 4th precisely because he’s mostly tools and projection. Hella nice athlete, but even when you watch him shoot in drills, his setup is methodical and his release is pretty slow. Maybe he develops into a decent C&S guy, but he definitely isn’t going create any threes unless he reworks his shot. Great motor, very good tools to be a defender, but his body isn’t there yet at the 4, 3, or 5.

Classic high ceiling moderate but substantial bust risk guy. He’ll have a career for sure, but his outcomes range from borderline sketchy starter to future All-NBA guy. Still the right pick for Chicago — all of the guards have weaknesses as well, so take the big wing/forward that you know will put in the work and play with with real effort. And trade Patrick Williams before they ever share the practice court, please. Having his low end outcome twin around is just asking for trouble.

[ReggiesKnicks]

Wilson is very likely going 4th precisely because he’s mostly tools and projection. Hella nice athlete, but even when you watch him shoot in drills, his setup is methodical and his release is pretty slow. Maybe he develops into a decent C&S guy, but he definitely isn’t going create any threes unless he reworks his shot. Great motor, very good tools to be a defender, but his body isn’t there yet at the 4, 3, or 5.

Classic high ceiling moderate but substantial bust risk guy. He’ll have a career for sure, but his outcomes range from borderline sketchy starter to future All-NBA guy. Still the right pick for Chicago — all of the guards have weaknesses as well, so take the big wing/forward that you know will put in the work and play with with real effort. And trade Patrick Williams before they ever share the practice court, please. Having his low end outcome twin around is just asking for trouble.

Wilson's low-end is far better than even Current Patrick Williams.

Wilson's feel and IQ is weirdly high for the type of raw basketball player he is. He is most likely slotted to go #4, but I would love for him to fall to #5 and fit seamlessly at the PF next to Kawhi, or even if Memphis opted for him as a long-term 4 over Boozer/DP next to Edey.

[Prospect Dong]

The problem with this thinking though is, there is nothing that held Thomas back from being a star. The only thing that held back Tyrus was Tyrus. You take that physical profile everyday of the week without hesitation.

Tyrus has even been pretty straight forward after the fact that he just relied on his athleticism and thought it would be good enough. His inability to pickup Skiles and Brown's schemes were also well documented.

Its kind of like a Michael Beasley thing. There is nothing physical that prevented Beasley from excelling in the NBA. But because he didnt excel, doesnt mean you pass on the next 6'9 athlete that can basically do it all on the offensive end. You just have to do your due diligence to see if they have a better attitude towards the game and a better work ethic.

Yeah, this is the same debate we were having about Bagley - who I think is a closer comparison because of his actual production in college - upthread.

How much do you update your priors when a similar college prospect busts in the pros? Were Bagley, Thomas, (Beasley, Williams, Swift) etc just unforeseeable fifth percentile outcomes based on their draft day projections, or do they tell us something transferable about the next guy who looks kinda like them? I think at least a little of both, right?

Like, you have to be a bit more concerned about Wilson's floor in a post-Bagley world, or looking for objective reasons why he's going to be different, even if you think Bagley was just bad luck. Where would you draft Marvin Bagley's (or Tyrus Thomas') identical twin in this draft? Not #4, right?

FWIW, "he can handle the ball pretty well for a college 4" seems to be true and not all that comforting, if you go back and look at Bagley's scouting reports. The FT% and standing reach/blocks are a bit more meaningful IMO.

I mean isn't this 4th pick guy some kind of 1337 passer as well, whereas Beas was more of a "walking bucket" type of guy. Beasley was a bust but we should remember he could score in the nba and showed some promise early IIRC.

3.5 assists per 40 - so a lot better than Bagley, but not exactly elite. I think Wilson's clearly a better prospect than Bagley - better stocks, better passing, better standing reach - but his downside case looks kind of similar. He probably ends up at least an acceptable defender, unlike Bagley, so he probably at least makes it to "good backup". But you can definitely see how he might fail to deliver of offense.

[JMAC3]

Vecenie has mentioned he was pretty poor defender this year and not really capable of making reads on the move passing wise. Mix that with the sketchy frame and questionable jumper. It isn't shocking if he ends up being a rather large disappointment. You are basically hoping he ends up like Giannis but I don't think the ball handling and feel are nearly as good as he was even as a rookie.