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Adam Jones to Baltimore for Erik Bedard?

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Post#81 » by TheUrbanZealot » Sat Feb 9, 2008 9:51 pm

Sweezo wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



So, if one pitcher getting strikeouts boosts our confidence...does trading a player like Jones and starting a player like Wilkerson, a player whom Bedard wishes he could pitch against every at bat of his career, undo that confidence?

Can anyone convince me that a pitching style that leads to inflated pitch counts is better than a pitcher who uses his stuff to get groundball outs quick in the count?


Sweezo, there are very very few CONSISTENT starting pitchers with sub or near sub 3 ERA years that AREN'T stiikeout pitchers. Let's look at some of the dominant pitchers of the last decade or so:

Randy Johnson
Roger Clemns
Jake Peavy
Curt Schilling
Josh Beckett
Pedro Martinez

There are very few consistent dominant pitchers, but those are the ones I can think of. ALL of them have consistently kept there ERA in the 3's, and ALL of them are SO pitchers that average about a K an inning.

The bottomline is there are very few groundball pitchers that CONSISTENTLy pitch with a SUB 4 era. Pitchers like Jamie Moyer, or Greg Maddux that rely a lot on their defense are exceptions to the rule. They are very very few and far between. Besides, the rule makes sense- as a groundball represents the possibility for error (whereas there is zero chance for error in a strikeout).

Tell me examples of non-power starting pitchers outside of Greg Maddux and Jamie Moyer in the last decade that have CONSISTENTLY been in the 3's or below ERA wise, let alone CY YOUNG candidates? Or do you feel Cy Young awards are overrated because they go by overblown stats? Ironic, since every Cy Young award candidate seems to be a power pitcher...
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Post#82 » by BlackMamba » Sat Feb 9, 2008 9:59 pm

well, it's finally official and i think that it's a good move for seattle. besides felix they needed another pitcher that could give them in every game he started a big possibility of a win.

this was something the mariners missed last season, so, now, what else is lacking?
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Post#83 » by TheUrbanZealot » Sat Feb 9, 2008 10:02 pm

hippie wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Well, there's the difference between you and me. I'm not just talking about the CURRENT team. I'm talking about the current and future team. I'm quite sure that Bedard + Wilkerson will outplay Jones this year. I'll even say Bedard + Wilkerson this year is better than Jones + Sherrill + Mickolio. To me, the question is, what are the relative values of two years of Bedard vs. the careers of Jones, Tillman, Mickolio and Butler, and perhaps 2-3 more years of Sherrill? It's not a particularly close call.

I'm not at all doubting that Bedard is an excellent pitcher and has a chance to be the M's best since the Unit. I don't disagree with you on that point. I disagree that it's worth mortgaging the future for two years of that, especially when we're not exactly a team on the cusp of winning anything.

For the short term, there's no doubt this improves the team. Maybe the team will actually have a well-deserved 88-74 record over each of the next two years, which is an improvement over 2007. No playoffs, but an improved, competitive team. Is that worth trading away the potential core of the future?


Sometimes you have to risk the future to maximize your current talent. I hate to use Ichiro as an outlet, but he represents what I'm talkng about to a T. Ichiro is 33. He probably will be in the league until he's 40, but right now, he is still in his relative prime. We want to maximize a player like Ichiro's ability now, rather than wait for pitchers (who aren't even guaranteed to be anything great) to pan out. Like i indicated earlier, the only way we say hindsight is 20/20 on this trade is if the pitchers we traded end up being aces or 2's. I mean, what are the odds of those 3 pitchers all being aces or 2's? If these pitchers had shown a propensity to dominate, I'm sure the deal wouldn't have closed. These pitchers are prospects- not locks, so to say our future was jeopardized is operating under the assumption these pitchers were destined to be major contributors.

I am going to play the odds game, like bavasi obviously did, and say one of these pitchers pans out toe be half-way decent. Ok, so what? Meanwhile, we remain competitive and still kept our best young pitching talent in Morrow and RR Smith.

Keep in mind, if the rotation spots were full anyways, where are the pitchers going to pitch? Out of the bullpen?

Bavasi made a trade he HAD to make. He had to go for someone that has already proven themselves to be a commodity. Hopefully people will be sold on Bedard once the season starts. If, just if, the mariners happen to make it to the ALCS, Felix and Bedard would be as dangerous a duo as any in the AL...
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Post#84 » by Relientk101 » Sun Feb 10, 2008 10:11 pm

Everyone should be at least optimistic. None of us know how this move will pan out and NONE of us know how good the traded prospects will turn out. We just picked up a Cy-Young type pitcher and you want to pout? give me a break.

lets enjoy the season.
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Post#85 » by Ex-hippie » Mon Feb 11, 2008 12:11 am

Sweezo wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
So, if one pitcher getting strikeouts boosts our confidence...does trading a player like Jones and starting a player like Wilkerson, a player whom Bedard wishes he could pitch against every at bat of his career, undo that confidence?


I don't get this... Wilkerson is a career .250/.354/.451 guy. Maybe not a world-beater by corner outfielder standards, but respectable, and probably at least as good as we can expect Jones to be for 2008.

I thought maybe it was a reference to lefty-lefty matchups, but I looked it up and it turns out Wilkerson actually does better against lefties than against righties.

So, what do you have against Wilkerson? I'm definitely on board with the notion that he's no substitute for Jones in the long term (I think I've made that quite clear in this thread), but I think he's a decent enough bat for now. Maybe it's because he hasn't been healthy while with Texas? I assume they'd check out his health before signing him.

And remember, Wilkerson is easily the best player ever traded from an NL team for someone named Soriano.
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Post#86 » by Sweezo » Tue Feb 12, 2008 8:06 pm

I was being a smartass b/c I think strikeouts are extremely overrated. TUZ was making a comment about the psychological effect Bedard's K's will have on the team. So...if someone thinks a pitcher getting a strikeout lifts his team to heights of ecstatic wonder, then certainly a batter striking out would have a reverse emotional effect on the same team, right?

I'm fine with Wilkerson as a RF at this point in the process. I certainly wish the team had been somewhat proactive and maybe would've pursued a RF back when the talent pool wasn't so shallow, but Wilkerson may be a fine stop gap if he stays healthy.

Still, watching Wilkerson and Sexson K back-to-back this season is going to suck...
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Post#87 » by Ex-hippie » Wed Feb 13, 2008 1:15 am

Well, I do think high strikeout levels by pitchers are good indicators of overall dominance, and also good predictors of continued high performance, relative to those who pitch to contact and are subject to the vagaries of their infields, their stadia and what-not. (Hey, what happened Inflex, remember him? I think I ran him out of here by arguing over that stuff. I feel kinda bad about that, but whatever.)

For hitters, I think most people are in agreement that, most of the time, an out is an out. In Sexson's case, I'm no more worried about his 100 strikeouts from last year than I am about the other 245 outs he made. Heck, let's just bring in Adam Dunn, Jack Cust, Jhonny Peralta and Dan Uggla, and at least we'll make opponents throw a ton of pitches.
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Post#88 » by Ex-hippie » Wed Feb 13, 2008 10:49 pm

Now comes the gratuitous, premature announcement that Bedard will be the opening day starter. I'm thinking it's a propaganda stunt.
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Post#89 » by TheUrbanZealot » Wed Feb 13, 2008 11:18 pm

Sweezo wrote:I was being a smartass b/c I think strikeouts are extremely overrated. TUZ was making a comment about the psychological effect Bedard's K's will have on the team. So...if someone thinks a pitcher getting a strikeout lifts his team to heights of ecstatic wonder, then certainly a batter striking out would have a reverse emotional effect on the same team, right?

I'm fine with Wilkerson as a RF at this point in the process. I certainly wish the team had been somewhat proactive and maybe would've pursued a RF back when the talent pool wasn't so shallow, but Wilkerson may be a fine stop gap if he stays healthy.

Still, watching Wilkerson and Sexson K back-to-back this season is going to suck...


Embellishing a tad? No one is saying he is going to have the defense on cloud 9. He will have an impact on their confidence, yes- in the same way most defenses usually step up a notch when they have a dominating starter on the mound. Going out on the field knowing that 90% of the time a pitcher is not going to be spattered all over the place is a great feeling for the defense, definitely a far cry from the Weaver's and Ramirez's.

As far as Sexson is concerned, he has been in my doghouse from day one. We seek a little solace in the fact that for what it's worth, he can't really go any way but up at this point. He sucked that bad last year, and I just can't see him duplicating that suckness. He won't be a difference maker, and I still don't like him, but it's going to be hard for someone to bat near the Mendoza line 2 years in a row...especially someone like Sexson...
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Post#90 » by Basketball Jesus » Thu Feb 14, 2008 8:26 pm

TheUrbanZealot wrote: He will have an impact on their confidence, yes- in the same way most defenses usually step up a notch when they have a dominating starter on the mound. Going out on the field knowing that 90% of the time a pitcher is not going to be spattered all over the place is a great feeling for the defense, definitely a far cry from the Weaver's and Ramirez's.


Uh, proof?
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Post#91 » by The Emcee » Sun Feb 17, 2008 12:07 am

Besides, the rule makes sense- as a groundball represents the possibility for error (whereas there is zero chance for error in a strikeout).


If the batter swings at a wild pitch/passed ball and technically strikes out, but makes it to first, isn't that an error?

Not trying to split hairs, just wondering.

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