What Are Your Draft Prospect Likes and Dislikes?

[ecuhus1981]

Everyone has their biases and blind spots, when projecting which draft eligible players will boom or bust. It's an inexact science, with outliers on both sides of every statistical, physiological and personality trait you can imagine.

So, why do we do it? Because it's fun!

I'll share my own tendencies, and I would love to know some of yours. Who knows, collectively we might even learn a better way to guess-timate a prospect's future success!

I'm big on rebounding for guards, AST:USG for forwards and bigs. I hate a high foul rate, and high centers of gravity. IMO, low man wins, and if you have subpar lower body strength relative to peers in college, it is difficult to add enough muscle to overcome that deficit in the pros.

I do believe the prevailing wisdom about 3PA and FT% being better indicators of NBA 3pt success than 3PT%, for most players. However, with centers, if they've shown they can hit 3's and they still have a low FT%, I believe they can stretch the floor. I have little evidence to support this, and the sample size of 5's shooting from deep is still shallow.

I love younger players with long wingspans, in the lottery. But late in the 2nd round, my preferences completely flip! I feel like the market efficiency is with older, stubby armed dudes that just constantly win their minutes and do everything efficiently.

That's enough from me, Lemme hear from you! 13 dats until the draft!

[OkcSinceSGA]

For me...

Likes or biases:

I love players who are ultra-competitive. I know it's hard to quantify, but you can listen to interviews and get a good idea of a player's ambitions or drive. For example, what made me flag SGA as a future star before he played his first NBA game was that during a Clippers interview post-draft, he was asked about how he sees his future playing out. He didn't say "I want to be a good player," etc. He said he wanted to be one of the best players to ever lace them up. If that isn't your mindset, your upside is already shot.

Secondly, I look for shot creation. In a draft, you are almost always looking for star/superstar upside because high drafting teams are rarely already great teams seeking top-tier connectors. I'm not looking for the next Nico Batum. I'm looking for the guys who have the ability to generate their own space/separation and a hunger to get up high shot volume. So, a combination of willingness to be a #1 option AND an elite separating skill to achieve that basically. There are multiple methods. Someone like Luka it's shiftiness, decel, strength and IQ. For someone like LeBron, it was always Godly athleticism and first step. For SGA, it was insane flexibility, length, deceleration, and change of direction.

Overall, the type of player my favorite archetype is the big PG. Gary Payton, Jason Kidd, SGA etc. Guys who can post up other guards, defend, crash the glass, and pretty much do everything.


Dislikes:

My main dislike is passive play. 10/10 times, I'd rather have a chucker or a reckless rookie you have to calm down or teach composure to, than guys who are timid and afraid to even ATTEMPT things. Too many rookies or prospects just try to fit in, or let themselves get boxed into playing a certain way instead of just playing their game.

Second dislike is turnover-prone guys that just make senseless mistakes. Paul George is constantly dribbling the ball off his foot, etc. Turnovers that happen during a correct decision bother me less.. but boneheaded ones.

[giberish]

My first thing is age. Particularly age relative to draft class. Guys who look good mostly from being older than their peers aren't that interesting. The guys you really want are the ones that stand out even while being younger than their peers. Exceptions can be made for guys who were late in starting basketball and still rapidly improving.

Second is passing for big men. In addition to the offensive value it generally shows the ability to read and react to what the other team is doing which translates to quality defense. Physically limited guys who can effectively read opposing offenses well will still be at least decent on defense while guys with physical tools and the ability to read opposing offenses will be great defenders.

Third, while 'stocks' (steal and block rate) can often come from reckless and undisciplined defense they're still a good proxy for being an effective athlete in the NBA. This is mostly an issue when a player has low stocks. A guy who is supposed to be a great athlete but only has mediocre stocks then they probably won't be that athletic (or effectively athletic) in the NBA and teams shouldn't count on that as a strength. A skilled player with very low stocks probably will struggle to be effective in the NBA.

[Bad Bart]

My first thing is age. Particularly age relative to draft class. Guys who look good mostly from being older than their peers aren't that interesting. The guys you really want are the ones that stand out even while being younger than their peers. Exceptions can be made for guys who were late in starting basketball and still rapidly improving.

Second is passing for big men. In addition to the offensive value it generally shows the ability to read and react to what the other team is doing which translates to quality defense. Physically limited guys who can effectively read opposing offenses well will still be at least decent on defense while guys with physical tools and the ability to read opposing offenses will be great defenders.

Third, while 'stocks' (steal and block rate) can often come from reckless and undisciplined defense they're still a good proxy for being an effective athlete in the NBA. This is mostly an issue when a player has low stocks. A guy who is supposed to be a great athlete but only has mediocre stocks then they probably won't be that athletic (or effectively athletic) in the NBA and teams shouldn't count on that as a strength. A skilled player with very low stocks probably will struggle to be effective in the NBA.

I agree on stocks, but for the reason you like big guys to pass. I think it has less to do with athleticism than with timing and hand eye coordination. Guys that have really low stock numbers don't seem to read the game well, in my opinion.

[WargamesX]

I like a high FTA% regardless of position and at least 2 assist average for wings 1 for centers and 4 for PG. I also like decent defensive numbers. I also really like rim protection from centers/PF, it's almost a requirement for bigs prospects for me.

Personality/off the court wise I love when they say that the prospect is a gym rat and is family oriented. Mama boys who are begging for the keys to the gym at that age is a great sign of future work ethic.

What I dislike from any player is they have a broken shot. Even though I admit every season we see players overcome broken shots I don't know if that is possible to figure out who can and cannot overcome a broken shot. Obviously older players who rely on strength for their games is a concern and tweener wings who can't shoot well. All red flag stereotypes but still accurate to me.

Personality/off the court wise the biggest red flag to me is if they don't do college to Chase money. It's not as relevant now post NBA ignite and NIL but that was always a big red flag. Now I am actually looking at how players transfer and if they go to programs where defense is less emphasized. That to me is a legit red flag. As players get older I would hope they would try to learn defense more. When they transfer to schools where they barely play defense I look at their stats like they was playing SSOL for D’antoni. Everything is inflated because you are only playing on one side of the ball. Ironically enough if they start at that type or school or stay at a offense heavy school, I hold it against them less because they are specializing.

[Klomp]

It's become clear that my blind spot is big men.

The worst of the worst came in 2012, when I thought Anthony Davis would be just OK while I thought the big with star upside was Meyers Leonard. I really liked Alex Len in 2013, Adreian Payne in 2014, Dragan Bender in 2016, and I could probably keep going down the line.

[drone3]

Confidence is #1 on my list. Obviously that needs to be backed up with above average numbers. #2 is athleticness. Will also naturally preference SGs. I have thought about this a lot and think its related to watching a tonne of Jordan growing up. Guys like Ant, Zach Lavine, Cameron Carr are always at the top of my boards.

[babyjax13]

Likes:
1. big guards who can rebound
2. one dimensional shooters
3. players who are 6-8 or taller and can shoot, dribble, and pass (and who move more like a wing than PF --- see Kyshawn George)
4. players who just seem to be at the right place at the right time (Koa Peat)

Dislikes
1. centers who don't protect the rim (hated Sabonis b/c of this)
2. point guards whose main appealing trait is otherwordly athletecism (Rose, Westbrook - very wrong on both)
3. power forwards who can't shoot at all
4. centers who have little offensive polish AND don't seem like they'll be amazing rim-runners (this is why I was low on AD, b/c he was physically underdeveloped and I thought he wouldn't be strong enough to finish in the NBA and wasn't skilled enough to face-up ... very wrong)

There are always exceptions to these, of course.